When a team gives up 70 points in a game, the defense is going to look extremely bad. But for the Denver Broncos' defense, it hasn't been just one bad game this NFL season.
They gave up 35 points in Week 2 to a Washington Commanders team that has otherwise averaged 18 points. Last Sunday, they let quarterback Justin Fields have the best passing game of his career, though they escaped with a 31-28 win over the Chicago Bears, who had 471 yards of offense after averaging 250 yards in their first three games.
Is this the worst any NFL defense has ever played in the first few games of the season?
To answer that question, we're going to look at the NFL's worst defensive starts over four games by DVOA, going back to 1981. This is not just a list of the teams that allowed the most points during the first month of the season. DVOA accounts for yards per play, consistency (success rate) and turnovers, with adjustments for the quality of your opponents. (Here's a more detailed explanation.)
Many of the 13 teams ranked below weren't particularly bad on defense the season before. For example, the Broncos ranked 13th in 2022. And a terrible four-game start didn't necessarily doom the teams on this list to a full season of horrible defensive play, as some ended up with a winning record and one even made the Super Bowl.
So where do the Broncos rank? And what might the rest of the season look like for them based on history? Here are the 13 teams with the worst defensive starts, starting with a recent -- and particularly interesting -- team. We'll show their records through those four games, along with a few other details, including where they finished in DVOA.
13. 2017 New England Patriots (2-2)
Through four games: 28.6% DVOA, allowed 32.0 points per game
Rest of season: minus-0.6% DVOA (14th), 14.0 PPG
Final record: 13-3
Draft position: No. 31 overall
That's right. When the Patriots were defending Super Bowl champions, they had a horrible defensive start to the season. New England had been ninth in defensive DVOA when they won it all in 2016 so this start was a real surprise.
It began with a 42-27 loss to Kansas City. The Patriots had to stop the Chiefs with 4:15 left, down 35-27, and instead they let Kareem Hunt run for 58 yards and allowed a 21-yard touchdown to Charcandrick West.
The Patriots were better in Week 2, allowing just 20 points to the Saints, although Drew Brees threw for 356 yards. In Week 3, New England scored a touchdown with 29 seconds left to beat Houston 36-33. Then in Week 4, the Pats fell to Carolina 33-30, with three touchdown passes and a touchdown run from Cam Newton.
Through four games, the Patriots allowed 7.3 net yards per play, nearly a full yard ahead of the No. 31 Saints and nearly 2 yards above the NFL average of 5.4. And then the Patriots figured it out. They were an average defense the rest of the season in terms of both DVOA and net yards per play (5.35), and they went back to the Super Bowl -- where the defense crumbled again.
12. 1993 Atlanta Falcons (0-4)
Through four games: 29.3% DVOA, 36.5 PPG
Rest of season: 1.1% DVOA (19th), 19.9 PPG
Final record: 6-10
Draft position: No. 7 overall
The Falcons were the worst defense in the league the previous season, so this was expected. The 1993 Falcons started the season with an above-average run defense, but it didn't matter because their pass defense was so horrific. With 76.1% DVOA, this is the worst pass defense ever through the first four games.
The pass defense problems weren't obvious in Week 1. The Lions' Rodney Peete went 11-of-20 for 178 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons lost 30-13, but some of those points came on a Lions pick-six. In Week 2, the Saints' Wade Wilson completed 22-of-34 for 341 yards and three touchdown passes. The Falcons made up a 31-10 deficit in the fourth quarter, only to see the Saints win 34-31. Next up, the 49ers. Steve Young went 18-of-22 with three touchdown passes and no sacks -- the Niners won 37-30.
Finally, "Monday Night Football" against the Steelers was a 45-17 drubbing. Neil O'Donnell completed 19 of 25 passes for 259 yards with two touchdowns and no sacks. The Falcons had only four sacks through the first four games, and opposing quarterbacks completed 69% of their passes compared to a league average of 59%.
11. 2001 Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
Through four games: 29.6% DVOA, 28.0 PPG
Rest of season: 13.5% DVOA (30th), 19.3 PPG
Final record: 7-9
Draft position: No. 12 overall
The Bills allowed more yards per play than the Cardinals in the first five weeks of 2001 (6.6 vs. 6.0), but we'll get to the Bills below. (I say "five weeks" because Arizona had Week 1 off; there were 31 teams and every week had at least one team on bye.)
Denver, Atlanta and Philadelphia all gained at least 379 total yards on the Cardinals in their first three games. The Cardinals really struggled against the run, giving up 14 carries for 90 yards and a touchdown to Olandis Gary of the Broncos and then 21 carries for 134 yards to Correll Buckhalter of the Eagles. Week 5 against the Bears was easily their best defensive game, as they allowed just 20 points in a 20-13 loss, and one of those touchdowns was a fumble return.
The Cardinals were a bad defense for years around the turn of the century. They ranked 30th in 2000 and 30th for the rest of 2001 after their bad start, despite allowing fewer points per game. Between 1996 and 2003, the Cardinals never ranked higher than 24th in defensive DVOA for a season.
10. 1985 Cincinnati Bengals (1-3)
Through four games: 29.9% DVOA, 34.3 PPG
Rest of season: 2.9% DVOA (18th), 25.0 PPG
Final record: 7-9
Draft position: No. 11 overall
The 1985 Bengals and Chargers are both on this list, and a big reason why is a 44-41 Chargers victory over the Bengals in Week 3.
That wasn't the only game where the Bengals gave up a lot of points, though. They lost 28-24 to Seattle in Week 1 and 41-27 to St. Louis in Week 2. The first game featured three touchdown passes for Dave Krieg of the Seahawks. Five different Cardinals running backs in that second game combined for 37 carries, 201 yards and three touchdowns.
The 44-41 game was wild, featuring 517 net yards for the Chargers, 448 net yards for the Bengals and eight turnovers combined. San Diego's Lionel James had 12 carries for 127 yards and a touchdown plus five catches for 118 yards and another touchdown. Cris Collinsworth had 10 catches for 161 yards and two touchdowns for the Bengals.
The Bengals got their first win in Week 4, on the road against the rival Steelers. But even in that game, they gave up 24 points and allowed Mark Malone to throw for 374 yards and three touchdown passes. Then the Bengals defense calmed down after the tough start and was close to average the rest of the way.
9. 1990 Phoenix Cardinals (1-3)
Through four games: 30.2% DVOA, 29.5 PPG
Rest of season: 9.8% DVOA (20th), 23.2 PPG
Final record: 5-11
Draft position: No. 6 overall
The Cardinals started most of the same defenders who finished 22nd in DVOA the season before, including Pro Bowl safety Tim McDonald, but it did not go well. The Cardinals lost two of their first four games to Washington by a combined 69-10. They also lost to New Orleans 28-7 and mixed in a 23-21 win over the Eagles. At least in the victory, the Cardinals had three defensive takeaways. They had only four total in the first four games.
The first Washington win had 240 passing yards and three touchdown passes from Mark Rypien with one sack. The second Washington win had backup Stan Humphries going 20-for-25 for 257 yards and two touchdown throws with no sacks. The New Orleans' win was highlighted by Rueben Mayes of the Saints with 16 carries for 99 yards and three touchdowns.
8. 1998 Philadelphia Eagles (0-4)
Through four games: 31.1% DVOA, 24.0 PPG
Rest of season: 5.8% DVOA (21st), 20.7 PPG
Final record: 3-13
Draft position: No. 2 overall
The Eagles ranked 13th in defensive DVOA in 1997, and on paper they should have been better in 1998. They added defensive end Hugh Douglas from the Jets, and he went on to have 12.5 sacks that season. But the Eagles' defense really stumbled its way through the first four games of the season.
The inability to get turnovers was a big problem. The Eagles in the first four games had no interceptions and recovered one of three fumbles. And they were horrible in the fourth quarter, allowing 8.6 net yards per play there in their first four games.
That didn't mean much when the Seahawks blew them out 38-0 in the opener, with Warren Moon throwing for 204 yards on just 21 attempts with three touchdown throws and no sacks. But in Week 3, the Cardinals managed all 17 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Eagles 17-3. In Week 4, a 24-21 loss, the Chiefs got 17 points in the fourth quarter, including two of Donnell Bennett's three rushing touchdowns.
7. 2016 Detroit Lions (1-3)
Through four weeks: 31.5% DVOA, 25.5 PPG
Rest of season: 13.2% DVOA (29th), 21.3 PPG
Final record: 9-7
Draft position: No. 21 overall
Like the 1998 Eagles, the Lions had been a slightly above-average defense the season before, so their early-season struggles were unexpected. Ezekiel Ansah, who was a Pro Bowler with 14.5 sacks in 2015, somehow managed just 2.0 sacks in 13 games in 2016.
In their first four games, the Lions ranked 31st in the league allowing 6.5 net yards per play -- but the bigger problem was takeaways. The defense forced no fumbles and had only one interception. The Lions allowed fewer points than some of these other teams mostly because opponents played at a slow pace and ran a below-average number of plays.
The Lions won their first game of the season in a 39-35 victory over Indianapolis, but the defense didn't really cover itself with glory. Andrew Luck managed 385 passing yards with four touchdown throws. DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry combined for 21 carries and 129 yards in a 16-15 Titans victory in Week 2. Aaron Rodgers threw four touchdown passes in Week 3, a 34-27 loss. And Chicago backup Brian Hoyer completed 28 of 36 passes for 302 yards and two touchdown passes in a 17-14 loss in Week 4.
The Detroit defense wasn't much better the rest of the season, but its offense improved. The Lions won eight of their next nine games and ended up in the playoffs, where they lost a wild-card game to Seattle.
6. 2006 Houston Texans (1-3)
Through four weeks: 32.3% DVOA, 28.3 PPG
Rest of season: 3.6% DVOA (18th), 21.1 PPG
Final record: 6-10
Draft position: No. 8 overall
The Texans had the worst defense in the league the season before. It wasn't hard to imagine they would start off 2006 giving up plenty of yards. The Texans allowed 6.73 net yards per play in the first four weeks of the 2006 season, while no other team gave up more than 6.25 and the NFL average was 5.20.
The Texans gave up at least 440 yards in their first three games before calming down by giving up just 289 yards to Miami in Week 4. That is why the Texans' DVOA for the start of 2006 was so bad despite getting positive opponent adjustments for playing a tough schedule. The opening game was a 24-10 loss to Philadelphia. Next came a trip to play Peyton Manning and the Colts. Manning had 400 passing yards and three touchdown passes, with over 100 yards for both Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison in a 43-24 blowout.
In Week 3, Washington's Mark Brunell completed 24 of 27 passes for 261 yards while Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts combined for 210 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 32 carries. Finally, the Texans played a good defensive game and got their first win over Miami in Week 4 17-15. Their defense improved over the rest of the season.
5. 2001 Buffalo Bills (0-4)
Through four games: 33.1% DVOA, 32.0 PPG
Rest of season: 8.2% DVOA (25th), 24.3 PPG
Final record: 3-13
Draft position: No. 4 overall
The 2001 Bills were coming off the best defensive season of any of the teams on this list. In 2000, the Bills ranked eighth in defensive DVOA at minus-9.3%. But there were some changes in 2001. Buffalo switched to a 4-3 defensive scheme under new coordinator Jerry Gray. Pro Bowl nose tackle Ted Washington signed with Chicago. Defensive end Marcellus Wiley went to San Diego. Safety Henry Jones left for Minnesota. And Pro Bowl linebacker Sam Cowart tore his Achilles in the first game.
Overall, the Bills gave up 6.6 yards per play in the first four games while the NFL average was 5.1 yards.
The opening 24-10 loss to New Orleans didn't seem too bad, although Aaron Brooks had three passing touchdowns. Then Peyton Manning and the Colts destroyed the Bills 42-24, with Manning going 23-of-29 for 421 passing yards and four touchdowns. That gets some adjustment for facing Manning, right? Yes, it does, but that was still the QB's season-high for both yards and touchdowns.
In Week 3, Buffalo lost 20-3 to Pittsburgh. The Steelers didn't have much of passing game with Kordell Stewart at quarterback, but three running backs combined to gain 173 yards on 27 carries. And in Week 4, the Jets slammed the Bills 42-36.
The Bills fixed things a bit with new young personnel after their terrible start. After the bye, they put rookie first-round cornerback Nate Clements into the starting lineup for Week 6. Second-round edge rusher Aaron Schobel got his first start a week later. Clements and Schobel started for the rest of the season and were the heart of a Bills' defensive lineup that led the league in DVOA by 2004.
4. 1992 Atlanta Falcons (1-3)
Through four weeks: 33.6% DVOA, 23.0 PPG
Rest of season: 10.9% DVOA (25th), 26.8 PPG
Final record: 6-10
Draft position: No. 9 overall
The poor defensive DVOA that the 1992 Falcons put up for the first month of the season was very strange for a couple of reasons. First of all, the Falcons had a terrible DVOA despite not giving up many points. The Falcons lost 41-31 to Chicago in Week 4 but didn't give up more than 24 points in any of their other three September games. Second, the Falcons had some serious defensive talent, including CB Deion Sanders and LB Jessie Tuggle.
Nevertheless, the defense was off to a bad start in 1992. It allowed 6.3 net yards per play in the first four games while the NFL average was 5.2 yards. The Falcons had just one interception and forced just two fumbles on defense. They won their first two games in part because opponents missed two field goals in each game. But the Jets gained 411 yards, and Washington gained 343.
Atlanta had a much better defensive game in Week 3, losing to New Orleans 10-7. Then in Week 4, the defense got clobbered by Jim Harbaugh and the Bears. Harbaugh completed 18 of 24 passes for 280 yards and two touchdown passes while running backs Brad Muster and Neal Anderson combined for 170 yards and three touchdowns on 25 carries. The Bears were averaging just 15.7 points per game before they exploded against Atlanta.
Things didn't really improve over the rest of the season, and the Falcons gave up over 40 points in four more games during 1992.
3. 1985 San Diego Chargers (2-2)
Through four games: 34.2% DVOA, 30.0 PPG
Rest of season: 10.8% DVOA (23rd), 26.3 PPG
Final record: 8-8
Draft position: No. 15 overall
Dan Fouts trying to keep up with a bad Chargers defense? What else was new in 1985?
The Chargers' defense looked pretty good in Week 1, as San Diego beat Buffalo 14-9. But in Week 2, the bad Chargers' defense came out in a 49-35 loss to Seattle. Dave Krieg had five touchdowns and 307 passing yards -- four of those touchdowns went to the same receiver, Daryl Turner -- while Curt Warner had 169 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Week 3 was the 44-41 victory over Cincinnati referenced earlier. And in Week 4, the Chargers calmed down a bit on both sides of the ball and lost to Cleveland 21-7. But even in that game, the Browns averaged 6.9 yards per play after averaging 4.6 the previous two weeks.
Overall, for the first four games, Cincinnati gave up 6.48 net yards per play and San Diego gave up 6.47, while no other team was above 5.8 and the NFL average was 5.1.
2. 2008 Detroit Lions (0-4)
Through four games: 35.5% DVOA, 36.8 PPG
Rest of season: 17.8% DVOA (30th), 30.8 PPG
Final record: 0-16
Draft position: No. 1 overall
The winless Lions gave up over 30 points 11 different times in 2008, including their first four games in a row. After the first five weeks of the season -- they had a bye in Week 4 -- the Lions had given up 7.0 net yards per play while forcing one fumble and zero interceptions.
Week 1 was a ground game celebration for the Falcons in a 34-21 win. Michael Turner rushed for 220 yards and two touchdowns, while Jerious Norwood added 93 yards and a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers had 328 yards and three passing touchdowns in a 48-25 win in Week 2, although that final score is a bit deceiving because the Packers had two pick-sixes in the final four minutes.
In Week 3, the 49ers beat the Lions 31-13 with J.T. O'Sullivan going 16-of-23 for 189 yards and two passing touchdowns. Frank Gore added 130 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Then in Week 5, the Lions got crushed by Kyle Orton and the Bears 34-7. The Bears averaged 6.2 yards per play against the Lions after averaging just 4.8 in their first four games.
These Lions are the only team on this list that gave up 30 points per game for the rest of the season after their poor defensive start.
1. 2023 Denver Broncos (1-3)
Through four games: 38.9% DVOA, 37.5 PPG
Projected draft position: No. 4 overall (per ESPN's FPI)
Two words: SEVENTY-BURGER. Or is that one word?
As bad as this DVOA rating is for the Broncos, it could be worse. The DVOA system down-weights the fourth quarter of blowouts, so Denver isn't penalized as much for the three touchdowns that Miami scored in the final frame. The Broncos have allowed 7.2 net yards per play on defense. The Bears are the next-worst team at 6.25, and the league average is 5.3.
The Broncos are the worst defense against the pass and rank 31st against the run. They are the worst defense in the red zone. They are the worst defense on both first and second down. On third and fourth down, they are "only" 26th.
This complete collapse from the Broncos' defense did not come out of nowhere. The Broncos finished last season 13th in defensive DVOA, but if you look only at their performance after trading Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins, they would rank 25th. Chubb can't possibly be that important on his own, right? If anything, the Broncos prove that one great defensive player isn't worth that much. After all, Pat Surtain II is still on this team! He was first-team All-Pro last season.
But changes are clearly coming. This week, the Broncos moved on from last year's big free agent signing, DE Randy Gregory.
The most likely scenario is the Broncos' defense finds its footing for the rest of the season, but it could get worse. Despite that game against Miami, Denver has played the No. 20 schedule of opposing offenses. The Broncos' remaining schedule of opposing offenses ranks seventh in difficulty, with games against the Chargers, Bills and surprisingly strong Texans -- plus the Chiefs twice in October.