I'm breaking down the 2024 free agent market by position and tier over the next two weeks. The goal is to try to understand which players are likely to be available to teams when free agency opens March 11 and what that means for the negotiating power on both sides. I've gone through the pending free agents and included potential cap casualties to see if there's a surplus or a shortage of starting-caliber talent available.
On Monday, I hit the quarterbacks, tight ends and offensive linemen. Now we're considering running backs and linebackers. For the latter, I'm strictly focusing on players whose primary job on paper against the pass is to play coverage as opposed to rushing after the quarterback. Outside linebackers such as Carolina's Brian Burns and Jacksonville's Josh Allen who play in 3-4 schemes are being considered alongside 4-3 edge rushers, since their jobs are relatively similar. I'll get to all of those guys next week.
Let's start with a loaded running back class. Parsing through them might be more about medicals and the scheme for each team than the relative talent levels of these players.
Jump to a position:
Running back | Linebacker
More: QB, TE and OL tiers
Running back
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: Saquon Barkley, Giants
If any back is likely to get a deal in line with the $11.9 million franchise tag, it's Barkley. While he isn't coming off a spectacular season with the Giants -- he averaged 3.9 yards per carry on his way to 962 yards -- he's a little better (and younger, at age 27) than the other options available. His skill set is a little more versatile, too. And while Barkley has had only two complete seasons at a Pro Bowl level, he carried the Giants' offense to the postseason as recently as 2022.
Where should he land? I'd look toward teams that need to help their rookie-deal quarterbacks with playmakers, a group that starts with the franchise at the top of the draft. The Bears have the cap space and the hole at running back to justify signing Barkley, with Roschon Johnson filling the supplementary role he excelled at during college at Texas. The Texans have plenty of wide receiver talent, but Barkley would be an upgrade over running back Devin Singletary. He could also end up in a game of musical chairs -- with one of the teams moving on from its back this offseason -- and join the Raiders or Titans.
Average annual salary projection: $12 million
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: Derrick Henry, Titans
Possible cap casualties: Nick Chubb, Browns; Aaron Jones, Packers
The Titans finally eased up on the reins last season, with Henry dropping out of the 20-carries-per-game clip he had topped in four consecutive seasons to 16.5 rushes per contest. He still led the league in rushes, though his efficiency slid to a career-worst 4.2 yards per carry. While he still has ominous size and the feet to run for an easy 10 or 12 yards at a clip, the big-play ability that made him so devastating at his best might have faded. After producing 27 touches of 30 yards or more from 2018 to 2022, Henry had just three last season. I'd like to see him on a team that typically plays 11 personnel and dares the opposing defense to match up, like a rich man's Isiah Pacheco.
Chubb is coming off a serious knee injury and has a $15.8 million cap hit in the final year of his deal; bringing him back at that figure doesn't make sense for Cleveland. Jones was a force in the postseason and might have saved his job that way, but it's tough to see him sticking around Green Bay at a $17.6 million cap hit. In both cases, I wouldn't be surprised if the veterans agree to reduced deals and stay with their current teams.
Average annual salary projection: $9 million
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Austin Ekeler, Chargers; Josh Jacobs, Raiders; D'Andre Swift, Eagles
Possible cap casualties: Alvin Kamara, Saints; Joe Mixon, Bengals
Ekeler produced at a Pro Bowl level in 2021 and 2022, but he lost a full yard per carry off his '22 mark a year ago and wasn't as productive in the passing game, averaging just 1.4 yards per route run. There wasn't a real trade market to acquire and extend Ekeler last offseason, and he's going to be 29 in May. He is likely to be a useful player into his 30s, but he could already be on the brink of falling to Tier 4 and might be best as a 1A back on passing downs.
The big plays and ability to absorb a heavy workload we saw from Jacobs during a breakout 2022 campaign (1,653 rushing yards) didn't reappear in 2023. He was one of the league's worst backs by stats such as rush yards over expectation (minus-86) and missed the final four games of the season with a quad injury. The comparison I've made for Jacobs is to former Bucs back Doug Martin, who had a solid rookie season in 2012, two middling seasons afterward and then an outlier of a breakout in Year 4 before coming down to earth for the remainder of his career. Jacobs is going to have to convince a team that 2022 wasn't a fluke.
Swift will benefit from having his breakout season come in 2023. There wasn't a lot of trade interest in him when the Eagles traded for him last April, but the former Lions back had his best season as a pro and made the Pro Bowl. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry but posted negative rush yards over expectation (minus-65) and first downs over expectation (minus-10) marks. Swift didn't do much as a receiver in an offense that doesn't typically reward its backs with catches, but he has shown that skill set in the past. Having just turned 25, his youth should play up in free agency.
Kamara would be a cap casualty for most organizations, but with the Saints he has an equal shot at being restructured to free up short-term cap space. He averaged 1.8 yards per route run last season, so he's still an effective receiver, but he has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over the past three seasons. He hasn't been an impactful rusher since Drew Brees retired. He has an $18.7 million cap hit and $11.8 million in compensation due in 2024; New Orleans could free up nearly $12 million by designating him as a post-June 1 release.
Mixon found himself in the same situation as Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott last offseason and chose to take a pay cut. His 2023 season ended up looking like a mirror image of his 2022. Mixon's $8.9 million cap hit is identical to the figure he occupied last year, but with Joe Burrow getting more expensive and the Bengals franchise-tagging Tee Higgins, Cincinnati might choose to go in a cheaper direction.
Average annual salary projection: $7 million to $8 million
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Tony Pollard, Cowboys; Devin Singletary, Texans
These are two backs seemingly going in different directions. Singletary joined the Texans and eventually carved out a role as the featured back, setting career highs for carries (216) and rushing yards (898). He also held onto the football, fumbling just once on 246 touches after fumbling about once every 55 touches during his final two seasons in Buffalo. I don't know if any team will ever be thrilled about having him as its starting back, but he deserves more credit than he gets.
Pollard, meanwhile, was franchise-tagged in 2023 and had his chance to prove his time as the featured back in the second half of 2022 was sustainable. Instead, hampered by the fractured fibula he suffered during the 2022 postseason, he showed little explosion and set career lows in yards per carry (4.0) and yards per reception (5.7). He got 17 carries inside the 5-yard line and turned them into just three touchdowns. Pollard is just 26 and should be fully recovered from his injury, but it's going to be tough for teams to project him into excelling as a primary back in 2024.
Average annual salary projection: $4 million to $6 million
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: AJ Dillon, Packers; Gus Edwards, Ravens; Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots; Antonio Gibson, Commanders; Zack Moss, Colts
Dillon had chances to prove his worth as a featured back while Jones was sidelined last season and didn't take them. In six starts, Dillon turned 93 carries into 333 yards and one touchdown. The Packers drafted him hoping he would turn into their Derrick Henry, but while Henry broke out in Year 3 and emerged as a star in Year 4, Dillon declined in his third and fourth campaigns.
Edwards took over for J.K. Dobbins and scored 13 touchdowns for the Ravens, but that was mostly a product of a league-high 23 attempts inside the 5-yard line. The league is smart enough to see through gaudy touchdown totals now; Jamaal Williams led the NFL with 17 touchdowns in 2022 and landed only two years and about $8 million guaranteed from the Saints last offseason. I'd be surprised if Edwards landed a multiyear commitment.
Elliott settled for a one-year deal with the Patriots last August and didn't do much to argue against the idea that his days as a lead back are numbered, averaging 3.5 yards per carry in a moribund offense. As a pass-blocker and power runner, he can still be a useful player in a situational role for the right team, which should keep him on a roster.
Despite spending most of his time in college at Memphis as a receiver, Gibson never became a critical part of the passing game in Washington, even after Eric Bieniemy took over as offensive coordinator in 2023. Gibson's speed and range of skills should still appeal to teams in a backup role, but fumbles are a growing concern; he had six in 2021 and three more on just 113 touches last season.
Moss was comfortably the best back in this group last season, producing a pair of big games in September against the Ravens and Titans. After that, he mostly looked like his old self, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Moss had 112 rushing yards over expectation through the first five weeks but just 17 afterward. His ability to shoulder the workload of a primary back should earn him guaranteed money.
Average annual salary projection: $2 million to $4 million
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spots
Free agents: Matt Breida, Giants; J.K. Dobbins, Ravens; Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chiefs; D'Onta Foreman, Bears; Damien Harris, Bills; D'Ernest Johnson, Jaguars; Alexander Mattison, Vikings; Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs; Dare Ogunbowale, Texans; Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons
Possible cap casualties: Nyheim Hines, Bills; Samaje Perine, Broncos
While other backs endure frustrating situations, this is the difficult tier in which to fall. There's simply way more competent or even useful backs than there are opportunities, and teams often would rather use their third running back spot for a player on a rookie deal who might have more upside than a veteran with a bigger name. Ogunbowale and Patterson are exceptions because of what they offer on special teams.
The most notable name here is Dobbins, who has seen his career torpedoed by injuries. After averaging an even 6.0 yards per carry as a rookie in 2020, he missed all of 2021 with a torn ACL in his left knee, was limited to 92 carries by complications from that injury in 2022 and then went down with a torn Achilles in the opener last season. We've seen players return from torn Achilles quicker than ever before, but Dobbins is likely to sign an incentive-laden deal given his injury history.
Average annual salary projection: $1 million to $2 million
Restricted free agents: Cam Akers, Vikings; Rico Dowdle, Cowboys
After losing and then regaining his job with the Rams in 2022, Akers gave way to Kyren Williams in 2023 and never got it back. He was sent to the Vikings in September, where he carried the ball 38 times for 138 yards before tearing an Achilles for the second time. Minnesota likely will non-tender Akers this offseason, which would leave the 24-year-old free to sign anywhere else without compensation.
Linebacker
Tier 1: Franchise players
Free agents: None
The off-ball linebacker position typically sees more franchise-caliber players hit the market than other positions, given that teams are often willing to draft and develop those players. The top off-ball linebacker contracts on the books include big deals for C.J. Mosley, Tremaine Edmunds and Foyesade Oluokun, all of whom were signed in free agency. This year, though, nobody fits the bill as a franchise-caliber player on the open market.
Tier 2: Pro Bowl-caliber starters
Free agents: Patrick Queen, Ravens
The closest thing to a franchise player might be Queen, who had a relatively disappointing first 2½ seasons in the league. When the Ravens traded for Roquan Smith, the deal was partly a reflection on Queen's failure to develop into Mosley's replacement. It unlocked a new level in Queen, however, and he played his best football alongside Smith. Queen improved to good in 2022 and was very good in 2023, producing career lows in yards per completion and yards per target.
With the Ravens signing Smith to a massive deal and declining Queen's fifth-year option last May, the writing is on the wall for his future in Baltimore. The Ravens will pocket a comp pick and move on. The easy landing spot for Smith is Seattle, where Jordyn Brooks and Bobby Wagner are both free agents and former Ravens coordinator Mike Macdonald has taken over as coach. I'm not sure that's as simple of a fit as some have made it out to be, but Queen should end up getting something close to an Edmunds-sized deal somewhere this offseason.
Average annual salary projection: $16 million to $18 million
Tier 3: Capable starters
Free agents: Jordyn Brooks, Seahawks; Lavonte David, Buccaneers; Willie Gay, Chiefs; Jordan Hicks, Vikings; Josey Jewell, Broncos; Frankie Luvu, Panthers; Andrew Van Ginkel, Dolphins; Devin White, Buccaneers; Bobby Wagner, Seahawks
Possible cap casualties: Jerome Baker, Dolphins
The market gets flooded with Tier 3 and below linebackers every year, which undercuts their negotiating value. It's a good place to find talented players, but don't be surprised if a lot of these guys sign one-year deals and are back in the market again in 2025.
Let's start with the two Buccaneers linebackers who helped push Tampa Bay to a Super Bowl three years ago. David had a resurgent season in his 12th pro campaign, as his 4.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss were the most he has posted since 2016. He also whiffed on just 6.3% of his tackle attempts, his lowest mark in six years of tracking data. At 34, he's not as spry as he once was, but he is still a useful player.
He might get a bigger deal than White, who was a second-team All-Pro in 2020 and a Pro Bowler in 2021. White was the NFC's Defensive Player of the Month in September of 2022, but things have mostly gone downhill since, with teams taking advantage of him in the run game. His passer rating in coverage improved from 104.9 in 2022 to 65.5 in 2023, but the Bucs seemed to grow sick of their 2019 first-round pick. White missed three games with a foot injury amid rumors he was frustrated about splitting time with K.J. Britt. After playing all of the division-clinching win over the Panthers in Week 18, he played just 40 of the 133 defensive snaps behind Britt during Tampa's two postseason games. He's probably looking at a one-year prove-it deal elsewhere.
Even while considering big names such as David, White and Wagner, three of the younger players in this tier intrigue me. Gay is an excellent player whom the Chiefs were comfortable using as their spy on quarterbacks Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Mobile passers aren't going anywhere, and there aren't many linebackers as fast as Gay. Luvu was a Pro Bowl-caliber player in 2022 and made a ton of plays for the Panthers, although his missed tackle rate more than doubled in 2023. I'd like to see him surrounded by more talent than he has played with in Carolina.
The most intriguing player might be Van Ginkel, who played both as an off-ball linebacker and edge rusher during his time in Miami and made an impact in both places. He had seven batted passes and 20 quarterback knockdowns in 2021, then added eight deflections and 19 quarterback hits for Vic Fangio's defense this past season before suffering a foot injury in the season finale. More than Queen, Van Ginkel is the sort of player who could thrive in Macdonald's defense in Seattle.
Average annual salary projection: $7 million to $10 million
Tier 4: Borderline starters/high-end backups
Free agents: Azeez Al-Shaair, Titans; Anfernee Jennings, Patriots; Denzel Perryman, Texans; Sione Takitaki, Browns
Possible cap casualties: De'Vondre Campbell, Packers; Cole Holcomb, Steelers; Eric Kendricks, Chargers
There's a bunch of two-down thumpers here, with Jennings and Perryman as two examples at different stages of their careers. Ran Carthon's presence as general manager in Tennessee might make it more likely fellow former 49ers product Al-Shaair stays with the Titans, although the Niners might lock up their former starter as a short-term replacement for Dre Greenlaw after the ferocious linebacker tore his left Achilles during the Super Bowl.
The cap casualties might have to each take pay cuts if they want to stay in their current gigs. Campbell had a stunning season in 2021 after signing as an afterthought with the Packers, but he hasn't been able to live up to that standard since and allowed a 111.2 passer rating in coverage in 2023. Holcomb suffered a serious knee injury in November, while Kendricks failed to right the ship for Brandon Staley's defense and has $6.5 million in compensation due this offseason. The Chargers need cap space and will have to make cutbacks somewhere.
Average annual salary projection: $3 million to $5 million
Tier 5: Backups likely to net guaranteed money
Free agents: Cody Barton, Commanders; Devin Bush, Seahawks; Zach Cunningham, Eagles; Tyrel Dodson, Bills; Shaq Leonard, Eagles; Kenneth Murray, Chargers; Isaiah Simmons, Giants; Drue Tranquill, Chiefs; Anthony Walker, Browns; Mack Wilson, Patriots
There's a handful of prominent past first-round picks here in Bush, Murray and Simmons, but they all need to be spotted into part-time roles. Backup linebackers typically need to contribute on special teams, which is why Bush and Simmons had their roles expand on kicks and punts with their new teams in 2023; Murray -- who was drafted two picks before Brandon Aiyuk and four picks before Queen in 2020 -- will need to start playing on special teams if he wants to have an extended career.
Cunningham and Leonard are two former AFC South standouts who failed to impress in Philadelphia. Cunningham might have been the Eagles' best linebacker when healthy, which is some of the faintest praise you will ever read. Leonard was a celebrated signing when the Eagles brought him in December, but there was a reason the Colts weren't playing the four-time Pro Bowler on third downs. He allowed a 123.8 passer rating in coverage in Philadelphia and was benched during the playoff loss to the Bucs. The 28-year-old hasn't looked the same since he underwent back surgeries in 2022.
Average annual salary projection: $1.5 million to $3 million
Tier 6: Backups likely to earn roster spots
Free agents: Kwon Alexander, Steelers; Oren Burks, 49ers; Kamu Grugier-Hill, Panthers; Malik Harrison, Ravens; Nicholas Morrow, Eagles; Khaleke Hudson, Commanders; Josh Woods, Cardinals
Burks was last seen filling in for Greenlaw as an every-down linebacker during the Super Bowl. Alexander's stop in Pittsburgh was his fourth team in as many seasons, with the former Buccaneers and 49ers linebacker called upon to fill in after the Steelers were beset by injuries. Grugier-Hill is stretched as a starting linebacker, but he's a core special-teamer and even an emergency kicker.
Average annual salary projection: $1 million
Restricted free agents: Jack Gibbens, Titans; Christian Rozeboom, Rams
Gibbens is an exclusive rights free agent, so the 13-game starter will likely be back at modest cost. The Rams gave Rozeboom about half of the defensive snaps, but his role seemed to diminish as the season went along. There's a chance he ends up non-tendered.