Some had to toil far more than others, but as has been the case for most of the season, the major favorites all survived a wonky Week 11. Ohio State, Georgia and Alabama all won by four to five touchdowns. Michigan, Florida State, Oregon and Texas all fended off late comeback attempts of varying degrees of success. Washington trailed Utah at halftime but rallied to win, just as Louisville did Thursday night after entering the fourth quarter trailing Virginia.
We continue to cruise toward what should be a fascinating final couple of regular-season weeks, and we continue to do so with the smallest number of title-related upsets and surprises. But there are always surprises elsewhere, and not just of the "Jimbo Fisher gets fired right after winning a game by 41" variety. Just this past Saturday, Missouri and UCF plowed Tennessee and Oklahoma State, respectively, with unexpected ease, Texas Tech upset Kansas, and Iowa scored 22 points!
As we get ready for the season's denouement, then, let's look at a few more surprises. Who has most greatly defied expectations this season? Who has improved or regressed the most?
Let's talk surprises.
Jump to a section:
Biggest surprises
Biggest disappointments
Most improved
Most regression
Conference title odds
What CFP should look like
Heisman of week
Favorite games of week
Biggest increase in projected win total
Despite all the roster turnover and the effects of the transfer portal, the preseason SP+ projections seemed to do a pretty good job of properly setting expectations for most FBS teams. About two-thirds of the 133 teams have a current projected win total within 1.5 games of where they started in August, and expectations for teams such as Notre Dame (8.8 projected wins in the preseason, 8.9 now) and Penn State (9.6 then, 9.8 now) have barely moved a millimeter.
There have been some pretty big whiffs, however. It wouldn't be fun if there weren't. Let's look at some of the more pleasant surprises in the country, starting with the power conferences.
Arizona (7-3)
Week 11 result: defeated Colorado 34-31
Preseason projected win total: 5.0
Updated projection: 8.3 (+3.3)
Jedd Fisch's second Wildcats team ranked just 58th in SP+ after three weeks but has taken leaps on both sides of the ball while winning four games in a row. What a trajectory shift.
Missouri (8-2)
Week 11 result: defeated Tennessee 36-7
Preseason projected win total: 6.3
Updated projection: 9.5 (+3.2)
This was projected to be another "just try to get to a bowl" season for Eliah Drinkwitz and the Tigers. But now they're within two games of a 10-2 finish and potential New Year's Six bowl.
Kansas (7-3)
Week 11 result: lost to Texas Tech 16-13
Preseason projected win total: 4.9
Updated projection: 7.9 (+3.0)
Even with Saturday's loss, the Jayhawks are well-positioned to get to at least 8-4 despite missing star quarterback Jalon Daniels for most of the season. Lance Leipold's building job remains incredible.
Florida State (10-0)
Week 11 result: defeated Miami 27-20
Preseason projected win total: 8.9
Updated projection: 11.8 (+2.9)
The Noles have underachieved against projections the past couple of weeks, even with the return of injured star receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. But it would take a pretty massive upset to take them out of the CFP running.
West Virginia (6-4)
Week 11 result: lost to Oklahoma 59-20
Preseason projected win total: 4.5
Updated projection: 7.3 (+2.8)
West Virginia has played only two SP+ top-30 teams and lost to them by a combined 97-35. Still, the Mountaineers have won the winnable games and should be favored in each of their last two.
Surprisingly, none of the teams above have first-year coaches. But the biggest overall gains have been made by a first-year guy in Las Vegas. Here are the top five overachievers from the Group of 5 level.
UNLV (8-2)
Week 11 result: defeated Wyoming 34-14
Preseason projected win total: 5.1
Updated projection: 9.0 (+3.9)
The Rebels have exceeded SP+ offensive projections in nine of 10 games; first-year head coach Barry Odom and offensive coordinator Brennan Marion were among the best hires of the offseason. (Let's just ignore the part where Odom first hired Bobby Petrino before he left for Texas A&M.)
Texas State (6-4)
Week 11 result: lost to Coastal Carolina 31-23
Preseason projected win total: 3.2
Updated projection: 6.9 (+2.7)
G.J. Kinne, another first-year guy, has been an out-of-the-gate success in San Marcos, even if his Bobcats have lost three of their past five.
Jacksonville State (7-3)
Week 11 result: idle
Preseason projected win total: 4.4
Updated projection: 8.0 (+2.6)
Rich Rodriguez has been brilliant at JSU. He oversaw a 9-2 season in his first season in town (2022) and has since led the Gamecocks to a 7-3 start in their FBS debut. What, like FBS ball is hard or something?
New Mexico State (8-3)
Week 11 result: defeated Western Kentucky 38-29
Preseason projected win total: 5.5
Updated projection: 8.9 (+3.4)
The wonder season continues in Las Cruces. The Aggies won their sixth in a row Saturday, and they're up to 66th in SP+. They haven't finished in the top 70 since 1968.
Miami (Ohio) (8-2)
Week 11 result: defeated Akron 19-0
Preseason projected win total: 6.4
Updated projection: 9.6 (+3.2)
The Redhawks' defense is allowing 10.2 points per game in MAC play and is up to 33rd in defensive SP+, and Miami (Ohio) has lost only to Toledo and the other Miami.
Biggest downgrade in projected win total
Of course, if someone is overachieving, that means someone else has to be underachieving, and by large margins in some cases. Let's once again start in the power conferences.
Pitt (2-8)
Week 11 result: lost 28-13 to Syracuse
Preseason projected win total: 7.3
Updated projection: 2.7 (-4.6)
What a shocking fall it has been for the 2021 ACC champs, who have plummeted from sixth in offensive SP+ in 2021 to 50th in 2022 and 91st currently. The Panthers' 38-21 upset of Louisville remains one of the most baffling results of the season.
Baylor (3-7)
Week 11 result: lost 59-25 to Kansas State
Preseason projected win total: 7.1
Updated projection: 3.6 (-3.5)
It's a tough season for unexpected 2021 champs, apparently. Dave Aranda's Bears have also plummeted since reaching the mountaintop; they're down to 84th in SP+, and the only reason they're even 3-7 is because they beat Cincinnati and UCF by four combined points.
TCU (4-6)
Week 11 result: lost 29-26 to Texas
Preseason projected win total: 7.9
Updated projection: 5.0 (-2.9)
Live by the close game, die by the close game. The Horned Frogs were 6-1 in one-score finishes during their CFP run last season; they're 0-4 this year. They're still a respectable 37th in SP+ but will need to beat Baylor and Oklahoma to reach bowl eligibility.
Arkansas (3-7)
Week 11 result: lost 48-10 to Auburn
Preseason projected win total: 6.8
Updated projection: 4.2 (-2.6)
The Hogs have scored more than 22 points just once in their past six games and have lost five of six one-score games. Since going 9-4 in 2021, the Hogs have gone just 10-13. Sam Pittman can't feel great about his hot seat status.
Wisconsin (5-5)
Week 11 result: lost 24-10 to Northwestern
Preseason projected win total: 8.9
Updated projection: 6.3 (-2.6)
Nothing has been easy in Luke Fickell's first season in Madison. The defense is as good as one could hope (sixth in defensive SP+), but the offense has topped 14 points once in five games. The Badgers will have to beat Nebraska or Minnesota to bowl.
One more power-conference team, shared for pretty obvious reasons:
Texas A&M (6-4)
Week 11 result: defeated Mississippi State 51-10
Preseason projected win total: 7.8
Updated projection: 7.4 (-0.4)
Winning a game by 41 points, then spending more than $76 million to fire Jimbo Fisher and buy out his deal is just a staggering combination. The Aggies have basically played to projections this season and have risen to 24th in offensive SP+ despite multiple injuries at quarterback. Fisher fixed a lot of the issues that led to A&M's 5-7 collapse last season, but the Aggies are 0-3 in one-score finishes, which is the main reason for the drop from 7.8 wins to 7.4. How many of those wins would he have had to flip to keep his job? One? Two?
Now back to the Group of 5, which has had its share of disappointments too.
San Diego State (3-7)
Week 11 result: lost 22-19 at San Jose State
Preseason projected win total: 7.1
Updated projection: 3.6 (-3.5)
That the Aztecs are awful offensively isn't new. That they've plummeted to 102nd in defensive SP+, however, is ringing every possible alarm bell. It's hard to sell tickets to your new home stadium when you're both terrible and unwatchable.
Nevada (2-8)
Week 11 result: lost 41-24 to Utah State
Preseason projected win total: 5.0
Updated projection: 2.6 (-2.4)
After last year's roster reset, Ken Wilson's Wolf Pack were projected to improve a bit, both on paper and in the win column. That ... hasn't happened. After finishing 118th in SP+ in 2022, they're now down to 130th.
Buffalo (3-7)
Week 11 result: lost 20-10 to Ohio
Preseason projected win total: 6.1
Updated projection: 3.8 (-2.3)
Maurice Linguist's Bulls made a nice jump to 7-6 last season but have given away most of those gains. They're currently 113th in SP+; they haven't finished that low since 2016.
Boise State (5-5)
Week 11 result: defeated New Mexico 42-14
Preseason projected win total: 8.4
Updated projection: 6.2 (-2.2)
A 2-4 record in one-score finishes has sunk this team to .500 status, though SP+ still gives the Broncos a 7% chance of winning the Mountain West.
East Carolina (2-8)
Week 11 result: defeated Florida Atlantic 22-7
Preseason projected win total: 5.2
Updated projection: 3.0 (-2.2)
Mike Houston's Pirates were projected to collapse after losing most of the production from last year's 8-5 squad. But at 112th, they're currently 22 spots lower than they were projected, and they've lost both track meets and rock fights.
Most improved power conference teams
Never mind projections: Who has improved the most over last season?
Colorado (4-6)
Last year: -24.0 SP+ rating (126th overall)
This year: -4.5 (79th)
Improvement: +19.5 points
Safe to say, the Buffaloes haven't achieved what many were expecting them to this season after an exciting 3-0 start in Deion Sanders' first season. Sanders did far more work in the transfer portal than he needed to and only really upgraded a few units, but here's your reminder of what he was working with. CU was dreadful last season, and simply going 4-6 with a ranking in the 70s is pretty significant improvement.
Arizona (7-3)
Last year: -5.3 (80th)
This year: 8.0 (32nd)
Improvement: +13.3 points
In two years, Fisch has engineered two leaps -- first from 1-11 and 113th in SP+ to 5-7 and 80th, respectively, and now to 7-3 and 32nd. Wow.
Miami (6-4)
Last year: -2.6 (71st)
This year: 9.2 (26th)
Improvement: +11.9
I guess this is more of a rebound than improvement; the Hurricanes should have never fallen as far as they did in Mario Cristobal's first season. Still, their SP+ rating suggests they're better than their record, and some of the 2024 hype we'll almost certainly see might be justified.
Georgia Tech (5-5)
Last year: -12.6 (105th)
This year: -2.5 (70th)
Improvement: +10.1
The Yellow Jackets got knocked around by Clemson on Saturday, but they had won three of four before that, and they can bowl if they win a tossup game against Syracuse this Saturday. We'll see what kind of ceiling Brent Key's program can create, but the floor's much higher than it was under Geoff Collins.
Rutgers (6-4)
Last year: -8.1 (92nd)
This year: 2.0 (52nd)
Improvement: +10.1
They've lost two in a row since clinching bowl eligibility, but Greg Schiano's Scarlet Knights still find themselves in a new layer of the atmosphere with a good defense getting better (they're 21st in defensive SP+) and a dreadful offense becoming, well, less dreadful (93rd in offensive SP+).
Most regression among power conference teams
Let's also look at the teams that have been shadows of their former selves this fall.
Mississippi State (4-6)
Last year: 17.9 (11th)
This year: -2.3 (69th)
Regression: -20.2 points
We knew it was going to be tricky for Zach Arnett in Starkville, not only succeeding the legendary (and legendarily unique) Mike Leach but attempting some pretty solid stylistic shifts in the process. Granted, the Bulldogs' early-season win over Arizona looks better than we realized at the time, but they've underachieved SP+ projections in eight of their past nine games, they've scored 33 total points in their past four games and they looked like a team that had all but packed it in Saturday against Texas A&M. We'll see if they rebound with upcoming games against Southern Miss and Ole Miss.
Illinois (5-5)
Last year: 15.8 (15th)
This year: -1.9 (68th)
Regression: -17.7
After losing defensive coordinator Ryan Walters and most of the components of a uniquely incredible secondary -- not to mention 1,600-yard rusher Chase Brown, the only good thing about last year's poor offense -- Illinois was destined to crumble a bit in 2023. The offense has found some life in recent weeks (see the Weekly Heisman list below), but it's taken a 5-1 record in one-score finishes just to get the Fighting Illini to 5-5. They'll need one more tight win to bowl.
Minnesota (5-5)
Last year: 19.3 (eighth)
This year: 1.6 (55th)
Regression: -17.7
Wow. I just didn't see this one coming. Minnesota ranked fourth in defensive SP+ in both 2021 and 2022 and kept coordinator Joe Rossi in town, and while there was enough departed talent to forecast a bit of regression, the Gophers have fallen to 32nd on that side of the ball -- preseason projections are the only reason they're not even lower -- and from 52nd to 84th on offense. They looked like they'd turned a corner of sorts with wins over Iowa and Michigan State. Saturday's 19-point loss to Purdue suggests otherwise.
Baylor (3-7)
Last year: 10.2 (34th)
This year: -5.1 (84th)
Regression: -15.3
The Bears fell from 12-2 to 6-7 last season primarily due to the fickleness of the close-games god -- they were still a solid 34th in SP+ and looked like they should play at a top-40 level this year. But they had fallen into the 50s after one game, the 60s after four, the 70s after six and now are in the 80s. Yikes.
Pitt (2-8)
Last year: 9.9 (36th)
This year: -4.4 (78th)
Regression: -14.3
Like Baylor, the Panthers had fallen off a bit in 2022 but still managed excellent defensive play and average offense. This year those units have been average and awful. They've played against three teams in the SP+ top 20 and lost to them by an average of 41-13. (Their win over Louisville is almost certainly why the Cardinals don't rank in the SP+ top 20.) They've underachieved against projections in eight of 10 games -- it's quite possible SP+ hasn't found their floor yet, and they're already down to 78th.
Conference title odds
With two weeks left before championship weekend, let's check in on the SP+ title odds for each conference. Below, I'll list all teams with at least a 0.5% chance.
AAC: SMU 40.4%, Tulane 33.4%, UTSA 16.5%, Memphis 9.7%. UTSA is smoking hot, but the Roadrunners' odds are tamped down by a season-ending trip to Tulane. The winner will likely play SMU in the title game, though the Mustangs could make things weird with a Week 12 loss at Memphis.
ACC: Florida State 69.6%, Louisville 29.8%, Virginia Tech 0.6%. We're all but certain to see Noles-Cardinals in Charlotte. It should be a delight.
Big 12: Texas 52.7%, Kansas State 19.1%, Oklahoma 18.9%, Oklahoma State 6.9%, Iowa State 2.0%. OSU's blowout loss at UCF changed things pretty significantly, but with a one-game advantage, Texas is still the obvious favorite.
Big Ten: Michigan 57.8%, Ohio State 29.6%, Iowa 11.9%. Iowa's West title odds are up to 92%. The Hawkeyes' odds of beating Michigan or Ohio State in Indianapolis: not that great.
Conference USA: Liberty 75.7%, New Mexico State 24.3%. NMSU's odds increase by the day, but LU is still the best team in the conference.
MAC: Toledo 62.5%, Miami 36.5%, Ohio 1.0%. We're likely to get a Toledo-Miami rematch for the title. That's a good thing -- the first game (a 21-17 Toledo win) was awfully fun.
Mountain West: Air Force 46.5%, UNLV 22.5%, Fresno State 17.3%, Boise State 7.3%, San José State 6.4%. SJSU is the hottest team in the conference but is still a game back of Air Force and UNLV.
Pac-12: Oregon 51.2%, Washington 40.5%, Oregon State 6.6%, Arizona 1.5%. Both of the front-runners still have to play Oregon State. The Beavers could wreck a lot of postseason plans (while winning the conference in the process).
SEC: Georgia 63.5%, Alabama 36.5%. Bama has rebounded nicely, but UGA is still better.
Sun Belt: Troy 57.9%, Coastal Carolina 32.8%, Appalachian State 4.8%, Georgia Southern 4.5%. Obviously these odds change if unbeaten James Madison's Hail Mary appeal to the NCAA for postseason eligibility is successful.
What should the CFP rankings look like?
A while back, I crafted a BCS-like formula that combines poll averages with computer rankings -- two power ratings (SP+ and FPI), two résumé ratings (résumé SP+ and strength of record) -- in an effort to compare this more objective process to what the CFP committee comes up with each week. For the most part, the two processes end up agreeing, but the differences are always noteworthy.
Let's once again see what happens this week. Here are the BCS-style rankings.
1. Georgia (10-0)
2. Michigan (10-0)
3. Ohio State (10-0)
4. Florida State (10-0)
5. Washington (10-0)
6. Oregon (9-1)
7. Texas (9-1)
8. Alabama (9-1)
9. Louisville (9-1) (up two spots)
10. Penn State (8-2) (down one)
11. Oregon State (8-2) (up two)
12. Missouri (8-2) (up three)
13. Oklahoma (8-2) (up three)
14. Ole Miss (8-2) (down four)
15. LSU (7-3) (up two)
16. Utah (7-3) (down two)
17. Notre Dame (7-3) (up three)
18. Tennessee (7-3) (down six)
19. James Madison (10-0) (up two)
20. North Carolina (8-2) (up three)
21. Kansas State (7-3) (up three)
22. Tulane (9-1)
23. Arizona (7-3) (up two)
24. Iowa (8-2) (up eight)
25. Liberty (10-0) (up three)
Last week, the committee once again ranked Ohio State (No. 3 per the formula) first overall, likely because of a stronger schedule. But both Michigan and Georgia looked the part of a top team Saturday -- especially Georgia, with its 35-point destruction of top-10 Ole Miss. The Dawgs again get the No. 1 ranking per the formula, but will the committee bump them up?
The committee also ranked Arizona and Iowa higher than the formula suggested they should be -- 21st and 22nd, respectively. Does that mean they're both in line for a spot in the teens Tuesday night? And hello there, Liberty. The Flames are unbeaten and continue to rise in the SP+ rankings, but their schedule ranks 132nd to date, per SP+. Will the committee rank them anyway? I doubt it, but we'll see.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week's Heisman top 10:
1. Jayden Daniels, LSU (17-for-26 for 372 yards and 3 TDs, plus 234 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against Florida).
Here's a list of players who threw for at least 250 yards and rushed for at least 200 in the same game between 2004 and 2023:
Texas' Vince Young vs. USC (2005)
Michigan's Denard Robinson vs. Indiana (2010)
Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel vs. Oklahoma (2012)
Louisiana's Jalen Nixon vs. Arkansas State (2015)
USF's Quinton Flowers vs. Memphis (2016)
Louisville's Malik Cunningham vs. Duke (2021)
LSU's Jayden Daniels vs. Florida (2023)
Here's a list of the players who threw for at least 300 and rushed for at least 225:
Daniels
Cunningham
Here's a list of the players who threw for at least 350 and rushed for at least 225:
Daniels
In this incredible era of dual-threat quarterbacks, it's hard to do something we haven't seen before. Against Florida, Daniels did just that. He had 85- and 51-yard touchdown runs, plus carries of 38 and 27 yards, and he completed passes of 52, 45, 44, 41, 38 and 37 yards. He was already leading the Heisman points race by a significant margin before he did this, too. What a year he's having.
2. Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma (23-for-36 for 423 yards and 5 TDs, plus 50 rushing yards and 3 TDs against West Virginia). Gabriel picked the wrong week to generate 473 combined yards with eight combined touchdowns. That would have almost been a slam-dunk 10-point performance in a week in which Daniels didn't make history.
3. Cody Schrader, Missouri (35 carries for 205 yards and a touchdown, plus 116 receiving yards against Tennessee). If they can't stop it, keep doing it. Missouri made a serious statement in blowing out Tennessee, and the Tigers did it with star receiver Luther Burden III catching four passes for 26 yards. Whatever the original game plan was, it changed when Mizzou realized the Vols couldn't even come close to stopping the relentless Schrader, who ended up with 321 of his team's 530 yards.
4. Bo Nix, Oregon (23-for-31 for 412 yards and 4 TDs against USC). Nix's Heisman stock has been muted at least a bit by the power of the Oregon run game and the safe passing of coordinator Will Stein's system. But against a defense that grants standout performances weekly, Nix averaged 17.9 yards per completion while still completing 74% of his passes. Yes, it was against USC. Still impressive.
5. John Paddock, Illinois (24-for-36 for 507 yards, 4 TDs and an INT against Indiana). Starting for the injured Luke Altmyer, Paddock threw for the second-most yards in Illinois history -- and the most in Memorial Stadium history -- and the Illini needed every single yard in a wild 48-45 overtime win. It's going to be awfully hard to move him back to the bench.
6. John Rhys Plumlee, UCF (11-for-18 for 299 yards and 3 TDs, plus 74 rushing yards against Oklahoma State)
7. Omarion Hampton, North Carolina (31 carries for 169 yards and a touchdown, plus 47 receiving yards against Duke)
8. Kyron Drones, Virginia Tech (12-for-17 for 219 yards and 2 TDs, plus 135 rushing yards against Boston College)
9. Dequan Finn, Toledo (23-for-27 for 407 yards, 3 TDs and one INT against Eastern Michigan)
10. Jalen McLeod, Auburn (9 tackles, 4 TFLs, 3 sacks and a forced fumble against Arkansas)
Some honorable mentions:
• Carson Beck, Georgia (18-for-25 for 306 yards, 2 TDs and an INT, plus 30 rushing yards against Ole Miss)
• RJ Harvey, UCF (24 carries for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns against Oklahoma State)
• Jordan McCloud, James Madison (33-for-37 for 457 yards and 4 TDs against UConn)
• Kyle McCord, Ohio State (24-for-31 for 335 yards and 3 TDs against Michigan State)
• Jalen Milroe, Alabama (15-for-22 for 234 yards, 3TDs and an INT, plus 36 rushing yards and 3 TDs against Kentucky)
• Kairee Robinson, San Jose State (19 carries for 200 yards and 2 TDs against Fresno State)
Through 11 weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Jayden Daniels, LSU (63 points)
T-2. Michael Penix Jr., Washington (34 points)
T-2. Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma (34 points)
4. Ollie Gordon, Oklahoma State (27 points)
T-5. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (22 points)
T-5. Bo Nix, Oregon (22 points)
T-5. Jordan Travis, Florida State (22 points)
8. Caleb Williams, USC (21 points)
9. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (16 points)
T-10. TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State (13 points)
T-10. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (13 points)
With three weeks remaining (including the conference championship games), Daniels is basically two points away from clinching the win. Though he's only going to get to play 13 games, he's still on pace for 4,113 passing yards and 1,193 rushing yards. In 2018, Oklahoma's Kyler Murray went for 4,361 and 1,001 yards in 14 games.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1. No. 24 North Carolina 47, Duke 45 (2OT). After 20 minutes, this was looking like a blowout -- UNC led, 13-0. After 50 minutes, the Heels still held a comfortable 26-14 advantage. Then all hell broke loose. We saw three lead changes in the last six minutes, and Grayson Loftis gave Duke the lead with 41 seconds left with a beautiful 30-yard strike to Jordan Moore on fourth down. But Drake Maye engineered a game-tying drive, then scored a physical touchdown, replete with 2-point conversion, in the second OT. Duke's 2-point attempt fell incomplete. This game was so good that it beat one with a Hail Mary.
2. FCS: No. 24 Central Arkansas 27, Eastern Kentucky 24. HAIL MARY ON THE STRIPED FIELD.
Central Arkansas QB Will McElvain throws it deep on the final play and Jarrod Barnes reels it in after the ball is tipped for the winning touchdown.
3. Illinois 48, Indiana 45 (OT). Like UNC, Illinois gave itself more work to do -- a 39-27 fourth-quarter lead turned into a 42-42 tie and overtime -- but John Paddock's fourth touchdown pass of the game (and Isaiah Williams' second touchdown catch) won the game for the Illini all the same.
4. Texas Tech 16, No. 16 Kansas 13. I'd have guessed this game was more likely to finish 46-43 than 16-13, but the offenses made a late appearance. Kansas erased a 13-0 fourth-quarter deficit and tied the game with 22 seconds left. But Jerand Bradley's 33-yard catch from Behren Morton set up a 30-yard game-winner for Gino Garcia.
5. No. 21 Arizona 34, Colorado 31. We can't have enough winning field goals.
WILDCATS WIN@tyler_loop KICKS IT IN FOR THE WIN.
— Arizona Football (@ArizonaFBall) November 11, 2023
📺: Pac-12 Network pic.twitter.com/8Eli9ts45D
Nothing like taking your first lead of the game with the clock expired.
6. Division III: Minnesota-Morris 42, Northwestern (Minnesota) 39. What's better than clinching your first playoff bid in 42 years? Doing it with a last-second interception!
Championship-Winning Interception! @UMMCougars sealed a 42-39 victory with this goal-line pick by Juan Garza with 7 seconds remaining to win the UMAC Football Championship on Saturday!
— UMAC Athletics (@umacathletics) November 11, 2023
UMM will represent the UMAC in the @NCAADIII tournament!#UMAC | #NCAAD3 | #WhyD3 | #d3fb pic.twitter.com/fBKq74X9r8
7. Cal 42, Washington State 39. It ended up the next step in Wazzu's collapse from 4-0 to 4-6, but what a late charge. Jadyn Ott's 167 rushing yards helped stake Cal to a 42-24 lead, but the Cougs scored twice in barely two minutes to make it 42-39, then got two more chances to tie or win. But Dean Janikowski missed a 48-yard field goal with 50 seconds left, and a last-second heave from Cameron Ward was intercepted.
8. No. 11 Louisville 31, Virginia 24 (Thursday). We got a surprising pair of awesome games Thursday night. Southern Miss upset Louisiana in overtime in Lafayette, and up in Louisville, Virginia scored three touchdowns in 3½ third-quarter minutes to take a shocking 21-14 lead, only to get overcome by Louisville big plays. Isaac Guerendo's 73-yard run provided the winning margin in a game that was much closer than anticipated.
9. Memphis 44, Charlotte 38 (OT). Another surprisingly tight affair. Favored by 9.5 points, Memphis found itself down 38-28 with less than six minutes remaining before a Blake Watson touchdown and a Tanner Gillis field goal forced overtime, and a missed Charlotte FG and another Watson score allowed the Tigers to survive.
10. NAIA: No. 9 Evangel (Missouri) 41, Bethel (Kansas) 38. Another surprisingly tight one. Unbeaten Evangel found itself down 31-10 early in the fourth quarter against 6-4 Bethel, but the Valor scored three times down the stretch. Dillon Hester's third TD of the day tied the game with 31 seconds left, and after a field goal gave Evangel its first lead in the second OT, Dominique Puent blocked a 27-yard try to clinch a grueling win.
Back to back thrillers!
— Evangel Football (@Evangel_FB) November 11, 2023
Valor take the KCAC Championship and finish the regular season 11-0 with this exceptional play.#CodeMaroon pic.twitter.com/PJEwZYBeG1
The midweek playlist
We've got two weeks of MACtion left and a couple of particularly interesting games to watch.
Tuesday: Toledo at Bowling Green (7 p.m., ESPN2). BGSU's upset win last year brought the Falcons to within one game in the all-time series (Toledo leads 42-41-4). Toledo has clinched the MAC West but is still playing for a program-best 13-win season -- the Rockets are 9-1 with four games to play.
Wednesday: Buffalo at Miami (Ohio) (7 p.m., ESPN2). Miami's only conference loss came against Toledo, and the Redhawks could inch closer to the East title with a win over the disappointing Bulls.