College football Week 12: What has changed and what hasn't

Drama, edge-of-your-seat action and almost no upsets. It's been the theme of 2023, and it crystallized in Week 12. Big favorites were tested, we saw a heart-pounding evening session -- Washington holding off Oregon State and Mizzou nailing a last-second field goal to beat Florida -- and no team that was both ranked (in the CFP rankings) and favored actually lost.

The action itself is worth the price of admission. You didn't have to search very hard to be entertained Saturday. But what has actually changed of late in the college football universe?

Plenty, actually! And there's plenty that hasn't. Let's take a look.

Jump to a section:
Georgia is rolling
Michigan-Ohio State for everything
Clemson on rise, USC not
Late overachievers
Texas leans on lines
Jerry Kill's magic
Taking the long view
What CFP should look like
Heisman of week
Favorite games of week

What has changed: Georgia is rolling now

Well, college football, you had your chance. Georgia spent nearly two months of the 2023 season insisting on cruising along in second gear as much as possible and let a couple of overmatched SEC foes get closer to an upset than expected. The Bulldogs battled injuries and slogged through the kind of motivation issues that only a two-time defending national champion might face, and slow starts led to reasonably unimpressive results.

Safe to say, motivation issues are no longer a problem. And injuries are becoming less of one. The result is pretty scary.

Georgia's scoring margins vs. SP+ projections
First five games: -10.6 PPG
Next four games: +4.4 PPG
Past two games: +19.6 PPG

The Dawgs have gone from underachieving against projections by double digits (meaning, they were winning by far fewer points than they were expected to) to overachieving by double digits. After a genuine test against Missouri two weeks ago, the Dawgs faced ranked Ole Miss and Tennessee teams and beat them by a combined 90-27. In Knoxville on Saturday, Tennessee gained 75 yards on its first play from scrimmage, a Jaylen Wright touchdown sprint, but that was evidently just a benevolent gesture from the champs. The Vols gained only 202 yards (3.7 per play) over the game's final 59:49.

Meanwhile, Carson Beck continued his "the better the opponent, the better he plays" routine, going a cool 24-for-30 for 298 yards and three scores. Brock Bowers, fully returned from an October injury, caught seven balls with a touchdown, and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint caught seven balls with two scores, filling the role of the absent Ladd McConkey. (That's right -- the Dawgs still aren't completely healthy.)

Neither the run game nor the run defense are quite as good as they have been during Georgia's recent title runs, and considering what might await the Dawgs in the College Football Playoff, assuming they get there -- Blake Corum plus two dynamite Michigan lines, TreVeyon Henderson plus Ohio State's top-ranked defense, an Oregon run game that might be the best in the country -- it's probably not time to declare the national title race over. But it's pretty hard to resist that feeling. The Dawgs have their hobnail boots on at the moment.

What hasn't changed: It's Michigan vs. Ohio State for everything

The Wolverines and Buckeyes have combined to win the past six Big Ten titles, making five CFP appearances between them in the process. Since the start of 2021, they're a combined 51-3 in Big Ten play, 49-1 if you take out their two games against each other. They finished last season second and fourth in SP+ and began this season second and third, respectively. They're currently first and third.

Ohio State began the season with a strangely scattershot offense but countered it with a defense that now ranks first in defensive SP+. Michigan won its first nine games by an average score of 41-7 and currently ranks first in overall SP+ (and seventh or better on offense, defense and special teams). Both have had their wobbly moments, and it might mean something that Michigan's have come in recent weeks, as either the spy saga or the looming Ohio State game might have become a bit of a distraction. Either way, the Buckeyes and Wolverines were, are and probably will be the Big Ten's two dominant programs.

Both also survived varying degrees of tests and attention span issues Saturday. Ohio State took a quick 7-0 lead over Minnesota before sleepwalking through the rest of the first half; Henderson began the second half with a 75-yard run, however, and the Buckeyes cruised 37-3. Michigan got more of a test in College Park. Thanks in part to a defensive touchdown and a safety in the second quarter, it eased out to a 23-3 lead and seemed ready to turn on cruise control. But Maryland went on a 21-6 run to cut the lead to 29-24. The Wolverines couldn't put the game away offensively -- that Corum managed only 94 yards in 28 carries is a bit alarming -- but dominated field position, landed a second late safety and won 31-24. It was only the second time in seven games that they underachieved against projections, but a team made them sweat (while without their suspended head coach), and they persevered with confidence. Now comes a Wolverines-Buckeyes battle that we assumed would be the biggest game of the regular season but might be even bigger than we thought it would be.

What has changed: Clemson's stock is up, and USC's ... very much is not

Act I: Clemson begins the season 4-4, losing by three touchdowns to Duke to start the year and then suffering gut-wrenching defeats at Duke, Miami and NC State.

Act II: Dabo Swinney takes on Tyler from Spartanburg.

Act III: Clemson starts looking like Clemson again.

OK, that's not quite how things really went. It makes for a good story, though. The Tigers have won three games in a row, including victories over ranked Notre Dame and North Carolina teams. They've moved to 7-4, and Swinney's investment advice to ESPN's Molly McGrath after the Notre Dame game -- "I know we're down and everybody's throwing dirt on us, but if Clemson's a stock, you better buy all you freaking can buy right now" -- was better than any advice Jim Cramer could give you.

You've probably missed the "buy low" window, though, especially since it's not totally clear Clemson has improved all that much. The Tigers have just stopped malfunctioning in key moments. When they were 4-4, they still ranked 21st in SP+. Their overall efficiency numbers were mostly fine. Now, after three rousing wins, they rank ... 24th. They're basically the same team, but they're both creating and receiving the late-game breaks they lacked.

If you're looking for buy-low opportunities, I could point out other teams with SP+ rankings higher than their records suggest they should have -- 7-4 Texas A&M (13th in SP+), perhaps, or a 7-4 UCLA team (25th) with an almost identical statistical profile to Clemson. The Aggies manhandled Abilene Christian on Saturday and could give LSU hell during Rivalry Week, while UCLA just won its big rivalry game against USC with surprising ease.

If you're into a little adventure, however, let's buy lower. A lot lower. USC finished the regular season at 7-5 following a 38-20 loss to the Bruins. Even with a disappointing offensive performance, the Trojans rank third in offensive SP+, an improvement over last year's No. 6 finish. That only means so much for the future considering Caleb Williams has quite possibly played his final game in a USC uniform, but Lincoln Riley always has good offenses and probably will next year too.

After Riley elected not to fire defensive coordinator Alex Grinch last offseason following a No. 87 finish in defensive SP+, however, USC found that rock bottom was even lower than anticipated. He finally fired Grinch a couple of weeks ago, but USC now ranks 113th in defensive SP+.

A selection of defenses better than USC's this year: Georgia State (which just allowed 56 points to LSU), Western Michigan (which allowed 48 to Syracuse) and, um, Texas State (which allowed 77 to Arkansas State on Saturday). I'm just saying, if you're looking for a rock-bottom stock, forget about Clemson and look west.

What has changed: Late overachievers

Clemson's ratings haven't changed much with a better spell of wins, but others' have. For a handful of teams, narratives have changed dramatically in recent weeks, and the underlying ratings have followed suit.

Arizona: The Wildcats lost to Mississippi State and barely beat Stanford early in the season and were ranked as low as 58th in SP+ in late September. The Wildcats are now 23rd and winners of five in a row, and if Oregon State upsets Oregon this weekend, then a win over spiraling Arizona State would put Arizona in the Pac-12 championship game. I didn't see that coming. Neither did you.

Liberty: Jamey Chadwell's Flames were 72nd in SP+ after an unimpressive 21-16 win over Sam Houston in Week 6. They're now 11-0 and 20th following a run of increasingly dominant wins. They beat Jacksonville State with ease in October and have won their past three games by an average of 26 points. Their strength of schedule has been dismal all season (it ranks 133rd, dead last, per SP+), but at some point, the CFP committee might have no choice but to acknowledge the Flames' obvious strength and rank them.

Troy: The defending Sun Belt champs underachieved against SP+ projections in each of their first four games. Jon Sumrall's Trojans were 2-2 and 73rd in SP+ after Week 4. Now they're 9-2 and 29th. Their defense has matched last year's heights (they're 18th in defensive SP+), and the offense has increased in explosiveness. Even Saturday, as they underachieved a bit against Louisiana, they still figured out a way to get things done, winning 31-24. A second straight 12-2 season and conference title are within reach.

UTSA: With star quarterback Frank Harris battling a toe injury in September, Jeff Traylor's hyped Roadrunners were stuck in neutral. They lost three of their first four games and dropped from 55th in the preseason SP+ projections to 76th. They haven't lost, or scored less than 34 points, since. Saturday's 49-21 win over South Florida brought them to 8-3 overall and kept them unbeaten in American Conference play, and Harris was utterly spectacular: 411 passing yards, 112 rushing yards, six combined touchdowns. Now the torrid birds are up to 45th and get a shot at defending AAC champ Tulane (48th) with a spot in the conference title game on the line.

Missouri: Eliah Drinkwitz's four seasons in Columbia have been a close-games roller coaster. The Tigers went 3-0 in one-score finishes while hitting a respectable 5-5 in the all-SEC COVID season despite ranking just 64th in SP+. In 2021 and 2022, they improved to 53rd and 40th, respectively, but went 6-7 each year because of a 4-7 record in the close games. This year, improvement and the blessings of the god of close games aligned. The Tigers are 4-0 in one-score games and 9-2 overall, and they're up to 17th in SP+. Their stirring 33-31 comeback win over Florida was the best game of the week, and if they win at Arkansas the day after Thanksgiving, they'll be in line for their first major bowl bid in 10 years. That's a pretty incredible thing to say considering their Week 2 performance, a sluggish and semi-fortunate 23-19 win over Middle Tennessee that dropped them to 46th in SP+.

What hasn't changed: Texas still has its lines to lean on

Running back Jonathon Brooks is out for the season. Quarterback Quinn Ewers has been good since returning from injury -- he was 23-for-33 for 281 yards and two touchdowns against a tricky Iowa State secondary Saturday night in Ames -- but isn't hitting the high notes that other potential CFP quarterbacks Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix and Beck have hit of late. The pass defense is growing leakier, allowing a 67% completion rate and an average of 317 passing yards per game over the past three weeks.

Texas has underachieved at least slightly against SP+ projections in five of its past six games, and thanks to the unbeatens above them refusing to lose, the Longhorns' CFP hopes aren't dead but aren't quite what they were a few weeks ago. But they still have those lines. Well, that line in particular.

The Horns' offensive line indeed helped pave the way for 117 rushing yards from freshman CJ Baxter, which helped Texas control the ball in the game's late stages. But the defensive front was once again the star of the show. Iowa State backs rushed 16 times for just 23 yards, Cyclones QB Rocco Becht took three sacks and the trio of 308-pound Byron Murphy II, 317-pound Alfred Collins and, of course, 362-pound T'Vondre Sweat combined for six tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and a pass breakup. Sweat also blocked a PAT that was returned for two Texas points and turned a potential one-score lead into a vital two-score lead late.

Texas will need some help getting into the CFP, and the Longhorns still have to handle their business against Texas Tech to secure a spot in the Big 12 championship game. But having one of the best defensive lines in the country paid off once again Saturday, and if they do sneak into the CFP, it'll give them a fighting chance against anyone there too.

What hasn't changed: Jerry Kill still owns Hugh Freeze

A year ago, with rumors circulating that Liberty head coach Hugh Freeze was going to end up at Auburn during the coaching carousel, Jerry Kill's New Mexico State Aggies pounced. They walloped the distracted Flames by a 49-14 margin, furthering what would become a run of six wins in their past seven games and their second bowl win in six decades.

On Saturday, NMSU one-upped itself. The Aggies followed Freeze to Auburn and pounded his new team, too. Against a Tigers team coming off of its best performance of the season -- a 48-10 pasting of Arkansas -- New Mexico State dominated. And I don't mean that in a "the mid-major team held its own in a way no one thought it could" sort of way. I mean the Aggies dominated: 414 total yards to 213, 23 first downs to 12, wins on 14 of 22 overall third downs (and three of four fourth downs). After overachieving against SP+ projections by 37.8 points last week, the Tigers underachieved by 32.9.

After a 2-3 start that included demoralizing losses to both UMass and Hawai'i, NMSU evidently made the most of a Week 5 bye. The Aggies have won seven in a row to move to 9-3, and they're within reach of just their second season with double-digit wins. They host another Conference USA newcomer and upstart, Jacksonville State, this weekend, and then they'll head to Liberty for the CUSA championship game. It was a story when they simply achieved bowl eligibility a few weeks ago. But they haven't stopped winning.

What hasn't changed: College football remains the ultimate longtail experience

ESPN's "College GameDay" came to Harrisonburg, Virginia, and a crowd of 26,000 James Madison fans awaited. They're already dreaming of a push toward next year's 12-team CFP.