Each Friday during the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season, Eric Karabell will bring his always-reasonable perspective to highlight the biggest storylines heading into the weekend's games.
The Pittsburgh Steelers produced 239 yards of offense in their 30-7 home loss to the San Francisco 49ers. That was not the worst Week 1 total, not even among the five worst (check out the Cincinnati Bengals), but it was disappointing because expectations are rather high for the Steelers. Yeah, the 49ers play great defense, but this game was not competitive. QB Kenny Pickett looked overwhelmed. RB Najee Harris looked bored. WR George Pickens looked disappointed. WR Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth looked hurt.
Impatient fantasy football managers already have Pickett among the three most dropped quarterbacks, which is saying something because Aaron Rodgers is the obvious top drop there. Johnson, likely out several weeks because of a hamstring injury, is among the most dropped wide receivers, and useful Freiermuth, a solid performer his first two NFL seasons, is also on the list at his position. The Steelers D/ST, formidable but still a somewhat surprising second to the 49ers in ESPN average live drafts, is quickly the third-most-dropped unit.
Why is everyone already giving up on the Steelers?
A Week 2 home matchup on "Monday Night Football" with the Cleveland Browns awaits and perhaps the Steelers can turn things around, but it is clear several of their players are on the proverbial hot seat for fantasy purposes. Pickett may seem like the obvious one, but really, if a standard league requires only 10 starting quarterbacks and nobody really believes Pickett was going to be one of those anyway, we can just add him and many others when dealing with injuries (like Rodgers) or for the bye weeks. Pickett will not face a defense like San Francisco's the rest of the season. He figures to show more confidence and accuracy moving forward, especially when looking down the field.
Harris is the more obvious player to watch this week, for the Steelers furnished him with only six rushing attempts and eight touches versus the 49ers. Game flow clearly played a role, as the Steelers abandoned the run rather early and struggled to convert third downs to sustain drives, but we were led to believe a healthy Harris would see a large workload. As a rookie, Harris approached 400 touches from scrimmage. Jonathan Taylor was the lone running back with more than his 307 rushing attempts. No running back had more than his 94 targets or 74 receptions. Harris might not have been the most efficient running back, but volume made him an RB1 choice.
Last season, Harris suffered a Lisfranc foot sprain during the summer, and it likely affected his performance and the team's strategy for using him during the season. The first season without QB Ben Roethlisberger saw the team's passers target Harris nearly half as much as his first season. While we heard rumors of Jaylen Warren being likely to share backfield touches to some degree this season, we still thought a healthy Harris would see a stronger workload than 2022, be a safer RB2 choice. So far, not so good.
Harris has played in four career contests versus the Browns and averaged 103 rushing yards in those games, scoring rushing touchdowns in each. He averaged 23 rushing attempts in those games, though with no more than three catches in any contest. I think it is safe to say fantasy managers would be pleased with 23 rushing attempts this week. It is a lot more than six and would restore our trust in a valuable player.
As for the passing game, I do not think Pickett needs to be rostered in standard leagues yet, even with the Rodgers injury (Jared Goff, Brock Purdy and Jordan Love are among the most added QBs and smarter choices), but the Pickett-to-Pickens connection must look far better this week. Pickett might be a top-20 fantasy QB, while Pickens should be a 1,000-yard receiver and perhaps a WR2. Freiermuth can be a top-10 tight end again, as in 2021. Allen Robinson II fills in for Johnson this week, and perhaps he can remain relevant. The defense, pilfered by Purdy, should be better. This is a big week for the Steelers. Fantasy managers need to remain optimistic.
Quarterbacks on the fantasy hot seat
Speaking of Browns-Steelers, this might be a key week in the fantasy world for Cleveland starter Deshaun Watson, after he threw for only 154 yards in an easy win over the Bengals. It was raining, and Watson scored a rushing touchdown, but the Steelers figure to bounce back defensively, too. Watson is rostered in slightly fewer ESPN leagues than a week ago, and because he played poorly last season, fantasy managers will give him only so much slack. ... Meanwhile, New York Giants starter Daniel Jones threw for 104 yards in the embarrassing 40-0 home loss to the Cowboys. Jones was, of course, a top-10 fantasy QB last season. He is second to Rodgers on the most-dropped list. It is probably a mistake, but Jones better destroy the Cardinals this week. ... Denver Broncos starter Russell Wilson and his former backup in Seattle Geno Smith are also among the most dropped QBs. Well, of course they are! Neither played well in Week 1, and I believe each player will bounce back, but so many fantasy managers are tired of Wilson from last season, and many do not believe Smith is as good as he looked last year. ... Every QB matters in a superflex format, and Jets fill-in Zach Wilson has to play well at Dallas or we will keep hearing about Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. C'mon, Zach, play well. ... None of the top five QBs from average draft position ended up among the top five QB scorers in Week 1, but we would need to see another few weeks of struggles from the Bills' Josh Allen or Bengals' Joe Burrow before becoming even remotely concerned. Do not expect to be remotely concerned.
Running backs
While the Steelers' Harris needs more work, Tampa Bay Buccaneers starter Rachaad White had plenty of it against the Vikings, but he turned 19 touches into only 49 yards. According to ESPN's Seth Walder via NFL Next Gen Stats, White should have earned 77 yards on his 17 rushing attempts, not 39 yards. White was inefficient, but his blocking was competent, as was his quarterback play. Sean Tucker and Chase Edmonds lurk if White struggles again. ... The Los Angeles Rams turned to Kyren Williams when Cam Akers struggled against the Seahawks. Akers, like Cleveland's Watson, salvaged his fantasy day with a late touchdown, but 29 rushing yards on 22 carries -- and no passing game role -- puts Akers squarely on the hot seat this week. Robinson might be the better play. ... Washington Commanders pass-catcher Antonio Gibson lost a second-quarter fumble against Arizona and then took a clear back seat to Brian Robinson Jr. Gibson is among the most dropped running backs and might be passed on the depth chart by rookie Chris Rodriguez Jr. ... I liked Kansas City Chiefs pass-catcher Jerick McKinnon more than most entering drafts, but one catch on two targets in the opener is quite a drag. Even I might move on if things do not improve this week. ... Can we put all the Indianapolis Colts options on the hot seat every week until Jonathan Taylor returns, or does nobody care? Colts RBs attained 25 rushing yards in Week 1. It is tough to rely on Deon Jackson in Week 2.
Wide receivers
Look at the Chiefs again, as Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore are among the most dropped wide receivers in ESPN leagues. Toney's Week 1 performance was more troubling, because he had chances but was careless. Moore was simply invisible. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will figure things out, with or without Travis Kelce (but likely to be with). ... Chicago Bears starter DJ Moore deserves a month of chances before fantasy managers move on, but Justin Fields has to do better than get him two targets in Week 2. ... While a pair of Rams top the most-added list at the position (everyone has Puka Nacua fever, baby!), Van Jefferson caught 24 yards worth of passes. He did, however, see more snaps than Nacua and Tutu Atwell. ... Fantasy managers seem to love new Raven Odell Beckham Jr. so much that it might not matter if he catches passes. It seems to me he was far too popular in drafts in the first place. ... Stop worrying about the Bengals' Tee Higgins. Eight targets are enough. He'll be fine.
Tight ends
Giants newcomer Darren Waller caught three of five targets in the opener, but I think we should just forget the entire game for the Giants. Move on. Evaluate after Week 2 against the Cardinals. The Giants are better than this. ... I liked Houston Texans starter Dalton Schultz more than most and figured a rookie QB would look his way more than four times. Fantasy managers are not waiting. I think they should. ... Tennessee Titans starter Chigoziem Okonkwo caught nary a pass in Week 1. He averaged 14.1 yards per catch as a rookie. What are the Titans doing? ... New Orleans Saints curiosity Taysom Hill is among the most added tight ends despite scoring less than half a PPR point in Week 1. We can acknowledged the likelihood of better games, but, yes, this is odd.