As we get ready for the second half of the MLB season, let's look back at the storylines that dominated the first half of the season and whether they might continue over the final two-plus months.
We're sticking to on-the-field stuff here, so we won't include off-the-field narratives such as the Ippei Mizuhara gambling scandal, the five players suspended for violating the league's sports betting policy (including San Diego Padres infielder Tucupita Marcano, who received a lifetime ban) and anything to do with the relocation plans of the Oakland Athletics.
Among the honorable mentions that we won't get into: the struggles of the defending champion Texas Rangers, Elly De La Cruz's potential 80-30 season, the roller-coaster season for the New York Mets, Garrett Crochet's surprising breakout as a starter, Mookie Betts playing shortstop, the hot starts from Japanese pitchers Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and a season-ending injury to Ronald Acuna Jr.
Now on to the top 10 storylines of the 2024 season up until the All-Star break.
1. The three-way MVP race in the American League
It's been a few years since we've had a good MVP debate go down to the wire -- the last reasonably close MVP voting results came in both leagues in 2019, when Mike Trout edged out Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger beat out Christian Yelich in a vote that would have been closer if Yelich hadn't been injured in September. Last year's National League race was tight heading into September, but Acuna had a huge month while Betts collapsed and Acuna ended up the unanimous winner.
This year's AL race, however, is shaping up not only as a terrific three-player battle but a historic one given the level of production from Aaron Judge, Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. Only four times in MLB history have three players in the same league posted a 9-WAR season -- but it could happen with this trio. Check their numbers, using Baseball-Reference WAR:
• Judge: .306/.433/.679, 34 HR, 85 RBIs, 6.4 WAR (on pace for 10.6)
• Henderson: .286/.373/.584, 28 HR, 63 RBIs, 6.3 WAR (on pace for 10.6)
• Witt: .323/.369/.558, 16 HR, 63 RBIs, 5.2 WAR (on pace for 8.7)
Witt will probably have to pick it up a bit to get into the MVP conversation, but he's been doing that in July, hitting .409 with four home runs in 11 games. Witt is also closer to Judge and Henderson in FanGraphs WAR, where he sits at 5.8, giving him a pace of 9.7.
The last time we saw three players in the same league reach 9.0 WAR was 2004, when Barry Bonds, Adrian Beltre and Scott Rolen did it in the NL. Of course, there was no WAR then -- and there wasn't much of an MVP debate either. Bonds was so unfathomably dominant -- he hit .362/.609/.812 -- that he received 24 of the 32 first-place votes (six went to Beltre, one to Rolen and one to Albert Pujols, who had 8.5 WAR).
Will it remain a storyline? I think so -- although Judge is probably the favorite right now since he leads Henderson in the traditional categories (home runs, RBIs, batting average). He is also on a 56-homer pace, giving him a shot at a second 60-homer season. The playoff races, while less of an influence than they used to be in MVP voting, could factor in as well, with Judge's New York Yankees battling Henderson's Baltimore Orioles. The winner of the AL East could serve as a de facto tiebreaker, or a couple of clutch hits in September could be a decider. And if Witt can carry the surprising Kansas City Royals into the postseason, that improves his chances as well.
2. The battle for the AL East title
The Yankees got off to a roaring start -- remember that four-game sweep in Houston to begin the season? -- and were 49-21 on June 12, a 113-win pace that would put them right up there with the famed 1998 squad that won 114 games. They had done this without Gerrit Cole, who didn't make his first start until June 19. The Orioles, however, were breathing down their necks: They were 2.5 games behind.
Turn the clock ahead a month and Yankees fans have lost their minds -- their team has gone 9-19 since then. They want manager Aaron Boone fired. They want trades. They want some help for Judge and Juan Soto. The Yankees did just win two of three from the Orioles heading into the All-Star break, but the Orioles pulled out the series finale on Sunday when two Yankees defensive miscues in the bottom of the ninth led to a walk-off three-run rally. It was a bad, embarrassing loss.
Friday's game between the two did get a little testy when Yankees closer Clay Holmes hit Heston Kjerstad in the head, leading to a benches-clearing incident and Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde seemingly ready to take on the entire Yankees team. That only amped up what is becoming one of the game's best rivalries. It's hard to beat a division race between two great teams.
Will it remain a storyline? A better question: Does the division title matter? The Rangers won the World Series last year from a wild-card spot. The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks have reached the World Series from the wild card the past two years. The Washington Nationals won the one-game wild card in 2019 and went on to win it all.
So, no, in a sense it doesn't really matter. Just get in and get hot -- and right now, both teams are in good shape, with 97% playoff odds according to ESPN's Bradford Doolittle's projections. Still, you'd like to win the division and avoid that best-of-three first round if you can.
With that in mind, it will be interesting to see how aggressively both teams work the trade deadline. While the Yankees lead the AL in runs (4.98 per game to Baltimore's 4.94), they could definitely use another bat -- and they could also use some bullpen depth. The Orioles should be on the prowl for pitching depth, both starting and relieving. I want this division race to matter; it's more interesting than which 84-win team wins the third NL wild-card spot.
3. Year 1 of Shohei Ohtani with the Dodgers: Pretty, pretty good
Ohtani's first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers began with a dark cloud due to the gambling scandal involving Mizuhara, his ex-interpreter and friend. Then, Ohtani started hitting home runs, Mizuhara pleaded guilty to bank and tax fraud, and all that mattered was the Dodgers' superstar destroying baseballs. Ohtani is hitting .316/.400/.635 with 29 home runs and 23 stolen bases -- leading the NL in home runs, runs scored, slugging percentage, OPS and adjusted OPS. He could go 40-40 (or 50-40, which has never been done). He leads the NL in both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs WAR even though he's exclusively a DH -- that's how great he has been at that plate.
No exclusive DH has ever won an MVP Award. Don Baylor played 65 games at DH for the Los Angeles Angels when he won in 1979. David Ortiz had five top-five MVP finishes in a row, including a second-place result in 2005, but he never won. Edgar Martinez had the highest WAR ever for a DH with 7.0 in 1995 and finished third in the MVP voting. Meanwhile, Ohtani is already at 5.4 WAR. If he keeps up this pace, he is going to shatter all kinds of DH and Dodgers club records.
While Ohtani's big season isn't a surprise (did we expect him to go to the Dodgers and get worse?), he remains astounding to watch. I think back to his first spring training in 2018 when there was a lot -- a lot -- of skepticism about his hitting ability. Too much swing-and-miss, too many holes for pitchers to exploit. In part, I think it was just impossible to believe somebody with his pitching talent, which was obvious and extraordinary, could also turn into an elite hitter. Now he could be headed for a second straight season with 44 home runs and a .300 batting average.
Will it remain a storyline? Sure, it will be interesting to see if anyone else can even make a run at him in the NL MVP race. Ketel Marte is second in Baseball-Reference WAR and Elly De La Cruz is second in FanGraphs WAR, but neither really feels like an MVP candidate. Bryce Harper is having a big offensive season. Remarkably, it could be another unanimous MVP for Ohtani -- in a year he doesn't even pitch.
Ohtani, however, isn't the only news with the Dodgers. They are suddenly a very high-paid, mediocre team. Since May 21, they've gone 23-24. This past Saturday, they suffered one of the worst losses of the season, blowing a five-run lead to the Detroit Tigers in the bottom of the ninth and losing in extra innings. Their lineup that game featured four batters with an OPS under .600, plus backup catcher Austin Barnes (.612). The pitching injuries, once again, are starting to pile up and Bobby Miller just got sent back to Triple-A with an 8.07 ERA. L.A.'s division lead remains a fairly safe seven games over the Padres and Diamondbacks, but there's a chance the NL West gets close down the stretch.
4. Pitchers are hurt ... but pitching is still great
Remember April? All the pitching injuries? That was the big story of the first month. The list of injured pitchers is long and depressing: Spencer Strider, Jacob deGrom, Sandy Alcantara, Shane McClanahan, Kodai Senga, Jeffrey Springs, Eury Perez, Robbie Ray, Merrill Kelly, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Clayton Kershaw, Jordan Montgomery, Kyle Bradish, Shane Bieber, Cristian Javier, Joe Musgrove, Jesus Luzardo. Some of those guys were injured last year, some this year. Some -- like Cole, Max Scherzer and Blake Snell -- were injured and are now pitching. Others, such as Justin Verlander and Walker Buehler, were injured, returned and are now back on the IL again.
Despite all those significant injuries, offense is nonetheless down from last season -- from 4.62 runs per game to 4.39. OPS is down from .734 to .709. Batting average is down five points to .243, which would be the lowest since 1968. Home runs are down as well (1.21 per team per game to 1.09). Strikeouts are actually very slightly down (22.7% to 22.3%) and are lower per game than any year since 2017, so the biggest culprit has been a drop in batting average on balls in play, from .297 to .289. I'm not sure if that's because of the balls, better defense or pitchers inducing more soft contact, but after the new shift rules led to a seven-point increase in BABIP last year, we're right back to the .290 mark of 2022.
The numbers are starting to change, however -- maybe warmer weather or pitcher attrition. After a leaguewide OPS under .700 in both April and May, it climbed to .721 in June and is at .738 so far in July. Home runs are up to 1.29 per game. It's all a little weird: Last season, the month-to-month OPS ranged from .726 in April to .744 in August. In 2022, it was .676 in April and then between .702 and .724 each month after that. We're seeing larger-than-normal spreads here.
That could all just be noise. The bottom line is teams continue to develop pitchers with blazing fastballs, high-spin sliders and big sweepers. "Run scoring, it's not easy to do," Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. "It's hard and it's getting harder. Pitchers are getting better by the outing."
Injuries or not, the pitching remains dominant.
Will it remain a storyline? While the number of big-name injuries has slowed from April, no doubt a couple of division races will be decided simply by the teams that can keep their starters the healthiest.
The teams to watch here might be the Phillies and Atlanta Braves. The Phillies' top four starters -- Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez -- are 38-16 with a 2.96 ERA. They are one of just four teams with four pitchers with 100 innings so far (the others are the Yankees, Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays). The Phillies have a nice lead over the Braves in the NL East -- but not so safe that they can afford, at least just yet, to back off that group and save some innings for October. Meanwhile, Atlanta's pitching has carried the team. Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez were All-Stars, but can they maintain this workload? Sale has already thrown his most innings since 2019, and his last injury-free season came way back in 2017. Lopez had spent most of the past three seasons as a reliever so hasn't carried a starter's innings since 2019.
5. Paul Skenes: rookie pitching sensation
The first pick in the 2023 draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates was called up on May 11, made 11 starts and hasn't looked back since. Skenes hasn't lost a decision, pitched two games where he didn't allow a hit, has struck out nearly 35% of the batters he has faced while posting a 1.90 ERA, started the All-Star Game and introduced the world to the "splinker." It's one of the best starts to a career in history.
Will it remain a storyline? Absolutely. He already has become the must-see starting pitcher to watch and arguably the best current starter in baseball. He has already put up 3.2 WAR, which puts him in shouting distance of the best rookie seasons for a pitcher of the divisional era (since 1969):
1. Mark Fidrych, 1976 Tigers: 9.6
2. Mark Eichhorn, 1986 Blue Jays: 7.3
3. Britt Burns, 1980 White Sox: 7.0
4. John Montefusco, 1975 Giants: 6.8
5. Jose Fernandez, 2013 Marlins: 6.2
Fernandez and Spencer Strider are the two rookies from the past decade or so who similarly became must-watch TV -- and, somehow, Skenes might be even a notch above them in terms of pure stuff.
The headlines should continue to follow the rest of the season -- especially since he's theoretically also in a wide-open Cy Young race, even though he didn't pitch the first month. He's third among NL pitchers in Baseball-Reference WAR. We'll see if he pitches enough innings to stay in that discussion -- the Pirates might have a tough choice to make if they're in the playoff race in late September. In the meantime, maybe the next time Skenes has a no-hitter going he'll be allowed to throw a few more pitches.
6. Could this finally be the Phillies' year?
The Phillies reached the World Series in 2022 and should have reached it last year before losing the final two games at home in the National League Championship Series to the Diamondbacks. This, however, is a better Phillies team with the best record in the majors, on pace for 105 wins -- after winning 87 in 2022 and 90 last year. Philadelphia has a chance to beat the franchise record of 102 wins set in 2011.
With that in mind, I'd argue that no team should be more all-in at the trade deadline than the Phillies. Five of their key position players are age 31 or older. Suarez and Sanchez are in the midst of what might be career years. The bullpen is healthy and dominating. In other words, this could very well be their best chance at a title with this core group of players. They could use an outfielder and the bench is weak -- and, if they're worried about those innings piling up for the starters, another pitcher never hurts either.
Will it remain a storyline? Check back in October. In the meantime, will the Braves make a run for the division title they have owned the past six seasons? The Phillies have about 89% odds to win the division and the Braves 10%, so the Atlanta offense will need to figure things out -- and you have to think general manager Alex Anthopoulos will be busy looking to add an outfielder to help there. The teams have seven games against each other remaining, the last on Sept. 1.
7. Small-market teams are thriving
The Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers were hardly favorites before the season. In our preseason picks, only three of 26 voters picked Cleveland to win the AL Central and only two of 26 picked the Brewers to win the NL Central. Both lead their divisions by 4.5 games -- with the Guardians the surprise holder of the best record in the AL (by half a game over Baltimore). Those predictions undersold their actual odds -- about 1 in 5 to win the division for each of them -- but it's nice to see a couple of small-market teams having success.
They're doing it in similar ways: better-than-expected offenses (both teams had two All-Star starters: Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan for Cleveland and Christian Yelich and William Contreras for Milwaukee) and lockdown bullpens. The Guardians rank first in bullpen win probability added, and the Brewers rank second -- with both on historic-type paces. This isn't exactly a surprise for the Brewers, who led the majors in bullpen WPA last season (although they've done it so far without All-Star closer Devin Williams). The Guardians, however, were 23rd in WPA last season, in large part because closer Emmanuel Clase had 12 blown saves and lost nine games. This year, he's 4-1 with a 0.89 ERA and 29 saves in 32 chances -- and the Guardians won the three games in which he blew the lead.
Will it remain a storyline? Most likely. Doolittle gives the Guardians a 91% chance of making the playoffs and the Brewers 88%. Still, neither team is a lock and neither has a good rotation: The Guardians are 25th in the majors in rotation ERA (4.52) and the Brewers are 17th (4.20). Milwaukee also ranks 29th in rotation innings, as new skipper Pat Murphy has relied heavily on that bullpen. The Brewers did already acquire Aaron Civale from the Rays, and the Guardians recently got Gavin Williams back from a season-long injury, but let's see if either club puts more resources into adding another starter.
8. Don't count out the Houston Astros
OK, we all wanted to bury the Astros after a miserable start -- they were 12-24 in early May and by June 18, they were 10 games behind the Mariners in the AL West. The pitching was terrible, Jose Abreu got released with a .124 average, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez weren't up to their usual standards. The dynasty was over!
Nope. Check the standings: They're just one game behind the Mariners. They almost made up that deficit in less than a month -- a pretty extraordinary turn of events -- which means the Mariners might end up on this list of teams in the divisional era that have blown a 10-game lead:
• 1978 Red Sox: 10 up on July 8, finished second to Yankees
• 1979 Astros: 10 up on July 4, finished second to Reds
• 1993 Giants: 10 up on July 22, finished second to Braves
• 1995 Angels: 10 up on Aug. 16, finished second to Mariners
• 2006 Tigers: 10 up on Aug. 7, finished second to Twins
• 2014 Giants: 10 up on June 8, finished second to Dodgers
• 2022 Mets: 10 up on June 1, finished second to Braves (on tiebreaker)
Will it remain a storyline? At this point, it almost feels inevitable the Astros will pull away for another division title. The Mariners can't hit -- they're 28th in runs per game and first in strikeouts (they just had a 14-game stretch where they struck out at least 10 times per game) -- and the Astros' pitching has been much better (Hunter Brown has a 2.36 ERA his past 10 starts and Framber Valdez a 3.02 ERA his past eight). The Astros are reportedly looking to be aggressive at the trade deadline, while the Mariners, who spent the offseason moving around salary in order to keep their payroll level from 2023, are less likely to add the bats they need (big hitters are hard to come by, anyway).
9. The packed National League wild-card race
Eight teams -- the St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets, Diamondbacks, Padres, Pirates, San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs -- are separated by just four games for the final two spots. I mean, this isn't exactly the Braves and Giants battling for the 1993 NL West, and I'm not sure it really does much to increase attendance or interest, but it should at least lead to an intriguing trade deadline as those teams look to make minor upgrades. Although, with so many teams still in it, that means fewer players potentially available to trade for.
Will it remain a storyline? With that many teams in it, this race will go down to the final weekend, just like last season, when the Diamondbacks, Padres, Cubs, Reds and Miami Marlins were all separated by two games for two spots. There were no ties last year (the Cubs finished one game behind Miami and Arizona), but we might need a tiebreaker cheat sheet to see who gets in this year.
10. Chris Sale's comeback
This has been one of the best stories of the season. After years of injuries, the Boston Red Sox understandably got tired of counting on him and traded him to Atlanta for infielder Vaughn Grissom. It's hard to blame the Red Sox here: While Sale did make 20 starts last season, he had made just 11 from 2020 to 2022. He had a 4.30 ERA in 2023, although with 125 strikeouts in 102⅔ innings, he still showed premium strikeout stuff. Meanwhile, Grissom filled a need at second base, and the Red Sox saved some salary.
Fast forward to now and Sale is 13-3 with a 2.70 ERA, leading the majors in wins and the NL in ERA. He has fanned 140 in 110 innings while allowing just seven home runs. This is the Sale who was one of baseball's best pitchers from 2012 to 2018, when he had seven consecutive top-six Cy Young finishes (although never won). He's back to throwing 94-95 mph again while getting a 42% whiff rate on his slider -- numbers that line up with his peak, pre-injury performance.
Will it remain a storyline? I'd love to see him win a Cy Young Award. Only Adam Wainwright has more "award shares" among pitchers who have never won. The big issue as mentioned earlier: How hard will the Braves push him? They'll need him strong for October. They've certainly been careful with him so far -- Sale has made just two starts on four days of rest -- but if the Braves are close to the Phillies in September, they'll go hard for the division title.