Every Week 1 in the NFL comes with its fair share of upsets, but there couldn't have been many people with the three-team parlay of shocks we saw over the past few days.
On Thursday, the Lions pulled off what felt like their biggest win in decades, as Dan Campbell's team upset the defending champion Chiefs in Kansas City. The other AFC conference finalist wasn't spared, as the Bengals were blown out in the Battle of Ohio by the Browns. In the NFC, the Seahawks were manhandled by a Rams team many wrote off before the season, even before it lost wide receiver Cooper Kupp to injured reserve.
The Chiefs and Bengals would consider anything short of a Super Bowl title to be a disappointing season. I'm not sure the Seahawks are quite there, but after a surprising 2022, they expected to compete for a division title and win a playoff game in 2023.
What happened to each of these teams in Week 1? And are there reasons to be concerned that what we saw will continue to be a problem as the season goes along?
Jump to a game:
CLE 24, CIN 3
LAR 30, SEA 13
DET 21, KC 20
Browns 24, Bengals 3
For quarterback Joe Burrow, Sunday was supposed to be a coronation. Just days after signing the contract that made him the first $55 million-per-year player in NFL history, he walked into Cleveland expecting to start the season with a big game and a victory. He left with the AFC North turned upside down. He endured arguably his worst start as a pro, going 14-of-31 for just 82 yards. His minus-0.44 expected points added (EPA) per dropback was the second-worst mark of Week 1, ahead of only Daniel Jones', and the second-worst single-game mark of his career. By the fourth quarter, Joe Cool had been taken out of the game for his own protection and replaced by backup Jake Browning.
Weather didn't make it easy to pass in Cleveland. Sheets of rain impacted both quarterbacks, as the Browns' Deshaun Watson went 16-of-29 for 154 yards with a touchdown and an interception. It wasn't a banner day for Watson after an offseason of wondering whether he would look better in a Browns uniform after a full offseason of preparation, but he averaged twice as many yards per attempt as his counterpart. Watson disappointed. Burrow was confoundingly bad.
The Bengals were particularly brutal on third down, where they managed to convert on two of their 15 attempts throughout the afternoon. (They added a lone failure on fourth down.) Failing to stay on the field ended up exhausting the Cincinnati defense, which allowed 13 points on three drives late in the second half to break the game open. We don't yet have the All-22 film for this game, but I was able to use the player-tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to get a sense of how the Browns outfoxed Burrow and Cincy on third downs.
Debuting Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz made two clear choices on defense, and they were both interesting. I'll start on the coverage side. The Browns almost always showed one coverage look before the snap before spinning a safety and presenting something different to Burrow after the snap. Most often, they started with two high safeties and then rolled into a single-high coverage afterward. They played a lot of Cover 1 man and Cover 1 robber, where a safety patrols the deep middle of the field, a safety or linebacker tries to take away crossing routes underneath and everyone else plays man coverage across the field.
Schwartz tried to limit Burrow to throws into the flat and up the sideline, even if it meant placing his cornerbacks and safeties on an island in coverage. It worked. Burrow threw a career-high 71% of his passes outside the numbers, going 8-of-22 for only 44 yards on those throws. He typically averages 7.5 yards per attempt on those throws, so the Browns couldn't have dreamt he would fail to top 2.0 yards per throw on those passes.
On one of those, Irv Smith Jr. couldn't hang on to a third-and-1 pass. On another, the Bengals got Tee Higgins matched up on a fade against Browns safety Grant Delpit, and while Delpit had a great game in coverage and particularly as a tackler, a superstar wideout against a safety is a matchup the offense should count on winning for big plays. Delpit held up, as did starting corners Martin Emerson Jr. and Denzel Ward.
As the game wore on, the Browns showed a wider variety of coverage looks. Throughout the day, though, they tried to slow Burrow's post-snap processing and force him to throw low-percentage, high-upside passes. Cleveland lived dangerously, but amid the bad weather, the tactic was wildly successful.
Up front, Schwartz moved star edge rusher Myles Garrett around the defensive line. Switching him from one side to the other isn't anything new, and we saw some designed overloads to deliver Garrett one-on-one opportunities against a tackle, but one alignment that was particularly interesting popped up a couple of times. On the second third down of the game, the Browns stood up Garrett directly in front of center Ted Karras as part of a five-man front, making the Bengals block each lineman one-on-one. Garrett badly beat Karras at the snap, forcing an immediate scramble from Burrow and creating a sack for Ogbo Okoronkwo.
Lining up Garrett over the interior makes sense. Burrow has developed into an excellent quarterback in terms of getting the ball out quickly, and putting Garrett over the center creates the quickest path to the passer. The strength of the Bengals' offensive line is considered to be tackles Orlando Brown Jr. and Jonah Williams, leaving Garrett to attack weaker pass protectors on the interior.
The Browns pulled the tactic out only a couple of times, but it had a chilling effect on Cincinnati's playcalling. Burrow averaged a league-high 7.6 dropbacks per game out of empty sets last season, when his 70.4 QBR was the 10th-best mark in football. On Sunday, the Bengals went empty twice, and he was 1-of-2 for 3 yards. The possibility of the Browns going back to that rush package and threatening the interior with Garrett likely discouraged them from going empty more often.
All the scheming in the world doesn't matter if a team doesn't execute, and the Browns did a great job. Their defensive backs contested catches and batted balls away. Clutch tackles ended a couple of drives just short of the sticks. Dalvin Tomlinson made his presence felt on the interior in his Browns debut, as Joe Mixon & Co. were limited to just two first downs on 20 carries. The Bengals finished with just six first downs all game, a figure matched last season only by the Zach Wilson-led Jets in their 10-3 loss to the Patriots.
Does this feel like a blueprint other teams will emulate against the Bengals in the weeks to come? I'm not so sure. Disguising coverages and trying to make Burrow work harder after the snap isn't a bad idea, but it's also nothing new. A defensive coordinator lining up his best pass-rusher directly over the center is a fun tactic, but few teams have the sort of disruptor the Browns have with Garrett. (The Cardinals aren't going to be able to emulate this tactic in a few weeks when they play the Bengals, but the Rams and Titans might with Aaron Donald and Jeffery Simmons, respectively.)
With better weather and more pass attempts, it's tough for me to believe other defenses will shut down Burrow on those deep passes and prevent his receivers from winning on contested catches up the sideline. He averaged a league-high 9.5 yards per attempt against Cover 1 man over the prior two seasons, nearly a full yard ahead of anybody else in the league. The tactic worked because the Browns have good cornerbacks, enjoyed the benefits of sloppy weather and got pressure up front. Even two or three completions on those throws would dramatically shift a game in favor of Cincinnati.
For the second consecutive season, though, the Bengals have lost their opener. (They needed overtime and a Dalvin Cook fumble in field goal range to beat the Vikings in Week 1 in 2021.) The past two seasons, Cincinnati has gone 9-7 before November and 13-4 afterward, so the hope was that it would sustain its second-half form from last season into a hot start in 2023. Even with the Bengals' archrivals in Kansas City losing their opener, that just didn't happen.
Rams 30, Seahawks 13
These Rams were supposed to be pushovers for a team as stacked on paper as the Seahawks. Sure, Seattle ended up playing without rookie first-round corner Devon Witherspoon and leading safety Jamal Adams, but the Rams were also without top playmaker Cooper Kupp. If you had told Seahawks fans heading into the season that Kupp wouldn't play in Week 1 while L.A. back Cam Akers turned 22 carries into just 29 yards, they might have counted on the defense to produce its first shutout of the season.
Instead, the defense struggled to stop the Rams all day. It didn't force a turnover and produced just one punt, as every other L.A. drive ended in a touchdown, a field goal or a failed field goal attempt. (Brett Maher had one long attempt blocked and missed a second.) The average Rams drive produced three first downs and more than 47 yards.
Outside of slowing down Akers, it's difficult to find anything the Seahawks did that worked well Sunday. They failed to harass Matthew Stafford, who was brilliant throughout the game in his return from multiple injuries. He wasn't sacked and was knocked down twice on 38 dropbacks. The Seahawks pressured him on just 20.5% of his snaps, the third-worst rate for any team in Week 1. After spending last season banged up behind backup linemen, Stafford looked like he was having the time of his life.
The big plays didn't come from Kupp or Akers or even often from Tyler Higbee, who had a 30-yard reception and otherwise mixed in two catches for 19 yards. One of the most unlikely duos to ever rack up 100-plus receiving yards in a game has to be the Rams' one-two punch of Tutu Atwell and Puka Nacua, who each had 119 yards on the day. Nacua had the 13th-most receiving yards for a player in his NFL debut and became the first wideout to hit triple digits in his first game since Ja'Marr Chase in 2021.
Rams coach Sean McVay picked on the Seahawks in two ways. One was attacking the weak link at cornerback. With Witherspoon out, Tre Brown got the gig over 2022 starter Michael Jackson, with the two corners splitting the snaps at about a 75-25 rate. Brown played just 21 defensive snaps across six games a year ago, so even a spot start was a major step up.
It didn't go well. Brown was repeatedly targeted in coverage and struggled to keep up with Nacua. Three early explosive plays for the Rams came at Brown's expense, including a 16-yard reception in the flat when Nacua broke a Brown tackle. The big play was a 44-yard completion out of motion where L.A. used short motion from Atwell to get the diminutive wideout a running start away from Brown and a natural pick from defenders running into each other to create separation.
In the spirit of friend and former coaching teammate Kyle Shanahan, McVay also manipulated the middle of the field and created big plays against the Seahawks linebackers in the middle of the field. Last season, it was Shanahan confusing Tanner Muse and Cody Barton in a dominant wild-card round victory. Seattle welcomed back legendary linebacker (and recent Rams player) Bobby Wagner on Sunday and got 50 snaps from Jordyn Brooks nine months removed from a torn ACL, but the middle of the field was still prime territory for the L.A. offense.
Every team in the league sees boot concepts every week, which makes it even more disappointing that the Rams brought Brycen Hopkins across the field totally uncovered for a 21-yard gain on one. Seattle safety Julian Love seemed to be transfixed by the backfield and was beaten on a double move later in the game by Higbee for his 30-yard completion. The Rams fit completions of 13 and 21 yards behind Wagner on curl and dig routes. Throwing between the hashes, Stafford was 8-of-9 for 85 yards and a completion percentage over expectation of 22.3%. Wagner allowed six catches on six targets for 62 yards as the nearest defender in coverage.
Getting Witherspoon on the field will allow the Seahawks to feel more confident about their coverage at cornerback, as Riq Woolen was mostly left alone Sunday. The issues over the middle and on throws to running backs and tight ends have been a problem for several seasons, dating back to the first time they cut Wagner after the 2021 campaign. Adams hasn't been an effective cover safety when used in that role, but his range might allow him to make up space as a zone defender. If the front four doesn't get going, they might also need Adams to serve as an essential pass-rusher. And all of this assumes Adams, who has played just one of the past 23 games, will be able to stay on the field all season after he returns from his left knee injury.
Last season, the Seattle offense covered for a compromised defense. Based on how it looked early in the contest against the Rams, it felt like it would be able to do the same thing again in Week 1. With Geno Smith barely pressured in the pocket, the Seahawks weren't forced to punt once during the first half. Four drives produced a touchdown, two field goals and a 39-yarder off the uprights and out from Jason Myers.
After the break, though, the offense shouldn't have bothered to come out of the locker room. The Seahawks picked up 2 net yards across their five second-half drives, garnering one first down in the process. Even that came on a 5-yard pass interference penalty. They ran 14 plays after halftime, a mark that has been topped only twice over the past decade.
It's not as easy to find a trend line through what went wrong for the Seahawks after the break. Jaxon Smith-Njigba dropped a third-down conversion that was thrown a little high. A bomb to DK Metcalf on a vertical route fell out of bounds. Derion Kendrick, who was badly beaten for a touchdown by Metcalf in the first half, held his own with a pass breakup later in the game. And a Rams pass rush that had been absent for most of the first half finally appeared in the fourth quarter, forcing one throwaway with a five-man pressure before back-to-back sacks on Seattle's final drives. That's the entire second half.
Facing a pass defense that is expected to struggle mightily this season, Smith was 16-of-26 for 112 yards and seven first downs on 29 dropbacks. He lost right tackle Abraham Lucas at halftime and left tackle Charles Cross in the second half, which couldn't have helped matters. At home, facing what might be the league's most inexperienced defense, this should have been a moment for Smith to star. Instead, the Seahawks were booed off their home field at the end of their opener. If the offense switches off for a half, the Seahawks don't have the defense needed to compensate.
Lions 21, Chiefs 20
There were drops. No point in starting anywhere else. It would be too simplistic to say the Chiefs lost the game because their receivers couldn't catch the football, but it's probably true. Kadarius Toney dropped a perfect throw into the hands of rookie defender Brian Branch for a gift of a pick-six, which opened the door up for the Lions in a game they eventually won by a point. Toney helped shut the door on his own team by dropping a deep crossing route on Kansas City's final drive that would have immediately set up the Chiefs in range for a winning field goal. Skyy Moore, who also had a difficult game, got his hands on a desperate fourth-and-25 heave from Patrick Mahomes that would have extended the game, only for the pass to fall incomplete.
People who want to blame this on 15 are trying too hard. pic.twitter.com/O4EFGfdnbD
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 8, 2023
Kansas City receivers dropped 10.3% of Mahomes' passes Thursday night, which is almost triple their career average. In the past, though, that in itself hasn't disqualified the Chiefs from winning games. Mahomes had dealt with 17 previous games in which his receivers had dropped at least 7% of his pass attempts. He had won all 17 of those games before this matchup with Detroit. In that famous 51-31 divisional round comeback over the Texans, his receivers dropped 14.3% of his passes. It didn't matter because the Chiefs were otherwise close to perfect on offense.
Even when we don't consider the drops against the Lions, the Chiefs were far from perfect on offense. If we look at all the plays that didn't end with a drop, Kansas City generated minus-0.01 EPA per snap on offense in the loss, the eighth-worst mark across Mahomes' 95 starts as a pro (after removing all the drops from those games as well). The Chiefs generated just 17 first downs and had only five plays of at least 20 yards. Three of them came on the same drive, which produced a touchdown just before halftime. One of the two others was a 41-yard pass interference penalty.
Unsurprisingly, the offense missed Travis Kelce. With Kelce unexpectedly sidelined by injury (hyperextended knee) for the first time since his rookie season in 2013, the Chiefs didn't have the sort of improviser to help Mahomes when he didn't get the look he wanted or expected in coverage. The Lions, who played Cover 1 at the league's third-highest rate last season, often showed single-high looks before the snap before dropping into zone coverages afterward. Detroit ranked 18th in Cover 1 usage in Week 1 and played zone on 60% of Mahomes' dropbacks, up from 40% a year ago.
Kelce's ability to feel coverage and mind meld with Mahomes late in plays and into scramble drills was simply absent. Mahomes has 952 passing yards over the past three full seasons after holding the ball for at least five seconds, which is more than 300 yards ahead of any other quarterback. He averages 7 yards per dropback in those situations when the rest of the NFL is at just over 5.5 yards. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray are the only players who hold the ball deep into plays anywhere as often as Mahomes, and none are as efficient as Kansas City's star.
On Thursday, when he held the ball for five seconds, Mahomes was 1-of-5 for 8 yards. It's a credit to the Lions for holding up in coverage that long against a master manipulator, but it's also clear he was desperately crying out for Kelce in those moments and didn't have anybody capable of making magic happen on their own.
Even allowing for the receiving play, this wasn't Mahomes' best game. It would be foolish to blame the loss on him, but the future Hall of Famer left plays on the field. He seemed hesitant to get rid of the ball at times, something we've seen from him in moments when he might not be fully confident. (The second half of the AFC Championship Game loss to the Bengals comes to mind.) Mahomes didn't miss many throws and had a few incredible passes, but he did put some of his attempts in exceedingly difficult places and didn't always make life easy for his receivers.
Again, the Lions deserve credit. They didn't tee off on Mahomes, who wasn't sacked on 39 dropbacks, but they did a solid job of consistently bothering the reigning MVP or forcing him off his spot. Aaron Glenn's defense knocked Mahomes down seven times and pressured him on 40% of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate produced by any defense in Week 1. Aidan Hutchinson was a consistent problem for Kansas City's offensive line, which didn't deliver its best performance. Trey Smith and Donovan Smith both committed holding penalties, with the latter wiping off a 17-yard Moore reception on the final drive.
You know who else would probably like a second chance at some of his decisions? Andy Reid, who didn't appear to have his best game. Reid was roundly criticized for two of his short-yardage calls, but they were both victims of bad execution more than bad decision-making. A reverse inside the 2-yard line with Toney wasn't properly blocked and led to a stuff for a short gain, although the Chiefs scored on the next play. They weren't as lucky later on, when tight end Blake Bell handed the ball to Rashee Rice on what was supposed to be an end around, only for Rice to be quickly tackled for a 3-yard loss. Nobody bothered to block playside tackle Josh Paschal, who easily wrapped up Rice to end the drive. Jet sweeps can leave a defensive lineman unblocked on purpose while using speed to get past them, but this was an end around from a player who was stationary at the snap.
Reid's decision-making in key moments was more concerning and harked back to some of his most frustrating losses with the Eagles. You could understand him taking a 35-yard field goal on fourth-and-2 late in the third quarter to give the Chiefs a 17-14 lead, but on the next trip to the end zone, he fell into the age-old trap of kicking a field goal to go up 6 points. The move cost the Chiefs nearly 2 percentage points of win expectancy, and the Lions immediately marched down the field on the next drive for what was eventually the winning touchdown.
As for the decision to go for it on fourth-and-25 on the final drive, I'm not sure there's any way to make it make sense beyond just pointing at Mahomes and shrugging. ESPN's model had it as a 2% swing of win expectancy toward the Lions. Other models had it approaching double digits. I'm not sure there was a great choice for the Chiefs -- and Mahomes nearly manufactured a completion out of nothing -- but that's probably a time to punt for even the best offenses in football.
The loss overshadowed an impressive performance by the Chiefs' defense, which was without its own star in Chris Jones. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo & Co. held a Lions offense that had been one of the league's best during the second half of 2022 to 14 points on 11 drives. The defense helped manufacture a final opportunity for Kansas City by stopping Detroit on fourth-and-1 with 2:33 to go, only for the offense to stall out without crossing midfield. Jones would have helped, of course, but the defense didn't feel his absence as conspicuously as the offense did Kelce's.
Acknowledging that Kelce is a human who is subject to aging and injuries is something the Chiefs have blissfully avoided over the past few seasons. Thursday was an example of how the gears can grind to a halt if the legendary tight end isn't around to compensate for an inexperienced receiving corps. They probably would have won this game if not for the drops, but playing without Kelce left the game close enough that a handful of drops swung the game toward Detroit. If Kelce comes back next week against the Jaguars and looks like his usual self, this game will fade into memory quickly. If he doesn't return soon or looks compromised when he's on the field, general manager Brett Veach might be on his phone ahead of the Oct. 31 trade deadline.