Let's grade every NFL trade of the 2023 deadline, which passed on Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET. We saw 15 trades, including moves for edge rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat, quarterback Joshua Dobbs, defensive lineman Leonard Williams, safety Kevin Byard, cornerback J.C. Jackson and running back Cam Akers.
I'm a big believer in judging decisions based on information available at the time. The saying "Let's see how it plays out" isn't an option for general managers making deals for their teams, so why should be it for us evaluating those transactions?
When I'm grading trades, I evaluate them for each team based on on-field impact, cap implications, draft compensation and effects within the context of a team's overall short- and long-term outlook. I like to think about decisions on two axes:
How confident are we in knowing if this is a good or bad decision?
How big is the impact of this decision?
They'll both play a role in the grades, though a low-impact decision can still receive a strong or poor grade. Low-stakes, clear-cut wins or losses still matter. The latest deals are at the top:
Jump to a trade grade:
Akers | Byard | Dobbs | Gregory
Jackson | Sweat | Williams | Young
Packers trade CB Douglas to Bills
Bills get: CB Rasul Douglas, 2024 fifth-round pick
Packers get: 2024 third-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 31
Grade for the Bills: B+
After injuries to cornerback Tre'Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano hit Buffalo, the Bills' defense needed help. From Week 6 on -- when they were without both players -- the Bills ranked just 18th in EPA per play on defense despite playing the Giants, Patriots and Buccaneers in that span.
With White out, the Bills were starting Dane Jackson and Christian Benford. Last year's first-round pick, Kaiir Elam, hasn't panned out, making two starts this season but inactive five times.
In Douglas, Buffalo gets a corner who has put up reliably solid numbers for several seasons -- something that isn't easy to find given the variant nature of the position. Douglas has allowed 1.0 to 1.3 yards per coverage snap -- above average to roughly average -- in each of the past three seasons in Green Bay.
By our draft pick value calculations, the compensation nets out to an early-ish fourth-round pick. Douglas, 29, is under contract for a non-guaranteed $9 million in 2024 between salary and bonuses.
The way I view this, Buffalo is correctly treating 2023 with urgency. The Bills are in the Super Bowl window, have a weakness on defense and added some help for the equivalent of an early Day 3 pick. Given where the team is, that is worth it.
Grade for the Packers: B
This stings for Green Bay because it is losing a solid cornerback, one it could have had on its roster in 2024, too. But it also represents the reality of where this team is at -- 2-5 and in a rebuild.
And this is what happens when you rebuild: you deal contributing players for draft capital that can help for years to come. The fourth-round value might not feel amazing for someone with another year of team control, but Douglas is ultimately more valuable to a contender than to the Packers. If this is what the market brought for him, it is worth taking.
Rookie corner Carrington Valentine -- a seventh-round pick -- is expected to start opposite Jaire Alexander for now, with Eric Stokes on injured reserve.
Browns trade WR Peoples-Jones to Lions
Lions get: WR Donovan Peoples-Jones
Browns get: 2025 sixth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 31
Grade for the Lions: C+
The Lions needed help at receiver behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. Marvin Jones Jr. recently stepped away from football and Jameson Williams offers tons of promise but at this point it's just that -- promise. Josh Reynolds has served as the No. 2 wideout and has been fine but unspectacular, with 1.72 yards per route run and a roughly average 51 overall score in ESPN's receiver tracking metrics.
Hence: taking a shot on Peoples-Jones, who broke out with 839 receiving yards a year ago and then could not get on the stat sheet this season. Peoples-Jones is averaging 0.47 yards per route run -- 92nd out of 94 wide receivers with at least 15 routes run per team game, ahead of only Olamide Zaccheaus and Randall Cobb.
Peoples-Jones is a contested catch specialist, and that was what fueled his 2022 breakout. He recorded a 99 catch score that season -- the highest possible -- overcoming below average open and YAC scores. Those numbers were something of a red flag going forward because openness is a more stable skill than catching ability. In 2023 his numbers have taken a nosedive -- he has an open score of just 7, which would rank last among all receivers if he qualified, and his catch score is down to 49.
The Lions are getting Peoples-Jones as a rental: He's a free agent after this season.
I get the idea of taking a flier on Peoples-Jones in the hopes that he returns to his 2022 form when paired with better quarterback play. But his statistics this season are alarming and ultimately I'm left feeling the Lions should have done more.
Detroit is, at worst, a top-four contender in the NFC. But they rank 10th in EPA per play on offense and 12th on defense. To truly be Super Bowl contenders, they're going to need better offensive performance, and I wonder if a better wideout -- from Mike Evans to Davante Adams to Jerry Jeudy -- might have pushed them to that next level. Of course, it's possible none was truly available. But Peoples-Jones is more of a long shot dice roll rather than someone to count on.
Grade for the Browns: B
This is something of an odd trade because one could have looked at the Browns prior to the deadline and figured they might be in the market to add a receiver. Instead, they're shipping a starter out.
But I get it, because Peoples-Jones' numbers were so abysmal that the Browns would have been hard-pressed to keep playing him. Again, 0.47 yards per route run and a 7 open score together means he's probably been one of the very worst receivers with real playing time this season.
Cleveland drafted Cedric Tillman in the third round this year and he could be in line for a bigger role with Peoples-Jones gone.
By making this move now the Browns gain a late-round pick for Peoples-Jones as opposed to potentially losing him for nothing in the offseason.
49ers add DE Young in deal with Commanders
Commanders get: 2024 third-round pick
49ers get: DE Chase Young
Trade date: Oct. 31
Grade for the 49ers: A
The rich get richer. Young was having a strong, resurgent season in Washington with five sacks and a 25% pass rush win rate at edge -- even higher than his standout rookie season. Now he's joining one of the best defenses in the NFL.
To put it another way, the 49ers just upgraded in a major way at one of their weak points on defense (edge rush opposite Nick Bosa). They've actually done a nice job getting average win rates out of Clelin Ferrell and Drake Jackson, but Young is at an entirely different level. He's also only 24. And despite a three-game losing streak, the 49ers are clearly one of the best teams in the NFL and a serious Super Bowl contender.
This is an example of when trading draft capital for a player on an expiring contract is worth it. The 49ers dealt only a third-round pick, get a premium player and fill a position of need. The easy comparison is to the Rams trading for Von Miller before their Super Bowl run. Miller was much more accomplished than Young, but the deal also cost more (second- and third-rounders). The 49ers could franchise-tag Young after the season if they don't sign him to a long-term deal, or let him walk and recoup a high compensatory pick.
Grade for the Commanders: C+
On one hand, it makes sense for the Commanders to shift resources into the future. It's a recognition of where the team is and the value that picks can bring via cost-controlled young players with upside. On the other hand, Young could have been a building block for this team.
Sure, Young's tenure in Washington did not work out the way anyone imagined when he was selected with the No. 2 overall pick in 2020. After a strong rookie season, he managed just 1.5 sacks in nine games in 2021 (before suffering a torn ACL) and none in three games in 2022. Still, the numbers from this season indicate he's back. And at only 24, it's not hard to imagine him becoming a very high-end edge rusher for years.
So even as the Commanders reload, Young could have been a player to build around. It wouldn't have been cheap, but it's also hard to find players of that caliber. The big unknown is Young's health, and if the Commanders were concerned about that I can understand dealing him.
The Commanders also might have considered holding onto him and collecting a high compensatory pick, even if he wasn't in future plans. That's not a guarantee, though -- Washington might be planning to spend in free agency such that it wouldn't get a pick back. Ultimately what makes this move somewhat of a surprise is that they sold high on Young but didn't get a high price. Sweat -- three years older than Young -- managed to go for an early second-round pick while Young was dealt for a late third-rounder. That's pretty unexpected.
Vikings trade G Cleveland to Jaguars
Vikings get: 2024 sixth-round pick
Jaguars get: G Ezra Cleveland
Trade date: Oct. 31
Grade for the Jaguars: A-
Offensive line has been a critical weakness for the Jaguars. The team's 45% pass block win rate is third worst in the NFL. It's sometimes covered over by Trevor Lawrence's strong ability to avoid sacks, but the porous line hurts the team's overall efficiency.
One particular weak point has been the left guard spot, where Tyler Shatley's 82% pass block win rate ranks 63rd out of 65 qualifiers. He would rank in the bottom 15 in run block win rate if he qualified, too. Ben Bartch, who started at left guard before Shatley took over, was only slightly better in each category.
Enter Cleveland, an apparent rental who looks like he will be an upgrade. In Minnesota this season, Cleveland's 92% pass block win rate ranked 31st out of 65 guards, and his run block win rate ranked 18th. For Jacksonville, this move makes sense. This team is trying to contend right now, has a clear shot at the AFC South and can fill in a weakness for relatively cheap.
Grade for the Vikings: B
Had Kirk Cousins not been injured, I would have been quite critical of this trade. Then again, I don't think the Vikings would have made it. Even if Cleveland was the team's third guard (after Dalton Risner took over his spot), offensive line depth is important. But despite dealing for Joshua Dobbs, I think the Vikings know where they stand. They are trying to fight for a No. 7 seed in the NFC but have no real hope of making noise in the postseason. This is a way for them to get a late-round pick without disrupting their starting lineup.
The counterargument -- and I think it's an important one -- is that they might have been able to keep Cleveland and get a compensatory pick for him. As a 25-year-old 2020 second-round pick, that comp pick might have been significant, too. That's dependent on Minnesota's offseason plans, though. If the Vikings plan to spend in free agency (and not re-sign him), they might not have gotten anything back.
Cardinals trade QB Dobbs to Vikings
Cardinals get: 2024 sixth-round pick
Vikings get: QB Joshua Dobbs, conditional 2024 seventh-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 31
Grade for the Vikings: A
Minnesota was at a crossroads after quarterback Kirk Cousins' injury, sitting at 4-4 without a quarterback and some parts of the season going surprisingly well (offensive line! defense) and other parts not so much (WR Justin Jefferson's injury). Should the Vikings add a QB or keep their resources?
The Cardinals let them do both.
I'm pretty shocked by how cheap the compensation is. In his half-season tenure as the Cardinals' starter, Dobbs recorded a 47 QBR (19th best). That comes with some caveats. When win probability was 15-85%, the Cardinals ran the most run-heavy offense in the league (53% designed pass rate), the most play-action (35% of dropbacks) and the fifth-most designed rollouts (8%). In those situations, Dobbs threw against light boxes just 62% of the time, the fourth-lowest rate. In other words: Arizona was pulling the easy levers (as it should), which helped Dobbs out.
But he was still better than some starting quarterbacks, proved his worth as a high-end backup and, for Minnesota, is almost certainly an upgrade over rookie fifth-rounder Jaren Hall.
Dobbs is only under contract for 2023. It seems possible he could stick with the Vikings as a high-end backup after this season but if not, he might net more as a compensatory selection than what the Vikings gave up.
Before I saw the compensation, I was prepared to criticize the Vikings for using draft resources in an attempt to fight with the Saints and Falcons to be a hopeless No. 7 seed. But when the cost is so low, why not compete?
Grade for the Cardinals: C-
I wasn't opposed to the idea of the Cardinals trading the QB given that they're out of contention, will likely soon turn to Kyler Murray and might not gain a compensatory pick for Dobbs if they decide to spend in free agency.
But the return here is paltry, and likely less than what a compensatory pick would be (probably a sixth- or seventh-round pick) if they got one. Dobbs might have been useful as a backup for Arizona in the future, too, though that would have been on a new contract.
Ultimately, I'm surprised this was all Arizona could get for Dobbs considering the value of quarterbacks, even backups.
Bears land DE Sweat from Commanders
Commanders get: 2024 second-round pick
Bears get: DE Montez Sweat
Trade date: Oct. 31
Grade for the Bears: D-
The Bears did not learn their lesson. A year after trading a second-round pick for Chase Claypool as a noncontender, Chicago dealt another second-round pick for a player despite yet again being a noncontender. Sweat is a better player than Claypool but is also in the final year of his contract.
But independent of a comparison to last year's trade, this appears to be an egregious decision by Chicago. Let's start with the obvious: Chicago is paying major draft capital for the final nine games of Sweat's rookie contract despite the fact that it is one of the worst teams in the NFL without any hope of contention in 2023. In other words, Sweat's value this season is worthless to Chicago, and yet the Bears paid handsomely for it anyway. That should be a nonstarter.
We should also note that the selection the Bears are giving up is not just a second-round pick but also what will likely be an early second-round pick. ESPN's Football Power Index currently projects the Bears to have a 47% chance at drafting in the top five in the first round, and an 82% chance of picking in the top 10.
The upside here is that Chicago gets the right to franchise Sweat (which would be an overpay in my opinion) or the right to pay him market rate? Yikes. The Bears may well sign Sweat to a long-term deal, but make no mistake -- that should not absolve them of this move. The Bears absolutely needed pass-rush help, as they have recorded just 10 sacks all season (worst in the NFL), and edge rushers Yannick Ngakoue and DeMarcus Walker rank 45th and 54th out of 56 qualifiers in pass rush win rate at edge, respectively. In Sweat, they at least get someone who has produced sacks, with 6.5 this season.
But while he's having a strong sack season, Sweat has never produced double-digit sacks. And while the sacks are there for Sweat this season, his pass rush win rate -- which evaluates him on far more plays than just the handful that result in QB takedowns -- is way down. He has just an 8% pass rush win rate at edge this season, which ranks 52nd. He has had higher win rates than that in the past -- it was 14% in 2022 -- but he has never exceeded 18% (in 2020), which is only a shade above average for an edge rusher. Sweat is also already 27 years old, meaning there's a good chance he's at his peak and not still ascending toward it.
Regardless of the evaluation of Sweat, the Bears committed a serious team-building sin by devoting major draft capital to improving a bad, noncontending team instead of using those resources to improve their chances of being a contender in future seasons.
Grade for the Commanders: A
I'm pleasantly surprised the Commanders recognized they ought to be dealing away players at the deadline rather than acquiring them. By dealing Sweat now, the Commanders are gaining future resources, which they need. Had they kept Sweat and Young, they would have only been able to franchise tag one of them. Now, they have the option to tag cornerback Kendall Fuller, who is a pending free agent, if they choose.
Theoretically, the Commanders might have been able to let Sweat walk in free agency and gained a compensatory selection, but that pick would have been no better than a 2025 late third-rounder -- and even that would have been far from guaranteed. Washington ranks fourth in effective cap space in 2025, per Over The Cap, so it could be a big spender in free agency, thus possibly canceling out a compensatory pick.
The cherry on top here is that this is the Bears' second-round pick, so it will very likely be early in the round.
Eagles trade DT Street to Falcons
Eagles get: 2024 sixth-round pick
Falcons get: DT Kentavius Street, 2025 seventh-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 30
Grade for the Falcons: B
The Falcons have a need at defensive tackle after Grady Jarrett suffered a season-ending ACL injury on Sunday. Ta'Quon Graham and LaCale London are potential replacements already on Atlanta's roster, but neither have gotten a ton of playing time this season.
Despite the lack of production this year (four tackles), adding Street seems like a fine move to add some competition for a team that is trying to win its division. Street has produced before, accumulating 6.5 sacks the past two seasons. The cost for the Falcons is virtually nothing -- a late-round draft pick swap for a player on a one-year deal worth just north of $1 million.
Grade for the Eagles: B
Street is buried on the Eagles' depth chart, having played just 17% of the their defensive snaps this season after playing 46% last year with the Saints. The 2018 fourth-round pick has a 0% pass rush win rate this year and 6% for his career, playing mostly as a three-technique.
With all the talent the Eagles have at defensive tackle -- starting with Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis and Fletcher Cox at the top of the depth chart -- it makes sense to deal Street if there's interest given his lack of snaps and production.
Giants trade DL Williams to Seahawks
Giants get: 2024 second-round pick, 2025 fifth-round pick
Seahawks get: DE Leonard Williams
Trade date: Oct. 30
Grade for the Giants: A-
For the Giants, the decision to trade Williams was likely easy. They are not contenders, and Williams is a 29-year-old, high-priced defensive lineman in the final year of his contract. The Giants will be taking on all or most of the remaining $10 million on Williams' contract, ESPN's Jordan Raanan reported, but still, this is a free upgrade in terms of draft resources.
The Giants were going to have to pay that money if they kept him, and while they may have picked up a compensatory pick to lose Williams in free agency, that pick was not guaranteed depending on how the rest of the Giants' offseason played out. And it would have been less valuable than what they received from Seattle in this deal.
The Giants also already have the foundation of their defensive interior for years to come in the form of Dexter Lawrence II, so this is an easy win.
Grade for the Seahawks: C
The Seahawks are in the position they are in -- 5-2, first place in the NFC West and adding at the trade deadline -- because their defense has been better than expected, making them a top-10 team in terms of EPA per play on both sides of the ball.
With Williams, they hope to be even better defensively. Williams is a good player, but short of great. His 13.9% pass rush win rate when lined up at defensive tackle ranks 13th, and he has 1.5 sacks. He posted an 11.5-sack season in 2020 but hasn't exceeded 6.5 in any other season. Williams ranks 35th out of 75 in run stop win rate (35%) as an interior defender. Williams' pass-rushing numbers almost certainly received some benefit from playing next to Lawrence, one of the league's best defensive tackles, as Williams was double-teamed when pass rushing as a defensive tackle just 48% of the time, the fifth-lowest rate.
Lindsey Thiry breaks down the Rams trading WR Van Jefferson plus a 2025 seventh-round draft pick to the Falcons for a 2025 sixth-round selection.
What surprises me is that the Seahawks are spending a lot of draft capital to shore up a group that doesn't look like a weakness. On passing downs they primarily play Dre'Mont Jones -- their high-priced free agent signing from this past offseason -- and Jarran Reed, who has really impressed to the tune of a 13.6% pass rush win rate when lined up at defensive tackle (just behind Williams) and four sacks.
Obviously, the three players can work in a rotation (Reed is more of a nose tackle) and perhaps the Seahawks intend to play Williams (or Jones) outside more given the loss of edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu to a season-ending pectoral injury. If that's the case, though, I'd rather have gone after a true edge rusher.
I think Seattle is baking in a future compensatory pick into its calculations. If we compare the draft value going out (2024 second-round pick and 2025 fifth-round pick) and a compensatory pick coming in (let's call it a 2025 fourth-round pick) that would net out to an early third-round pick by our draft pick calculations if we don't discount the value of future picks. That's still a sizable price for a rental. If the Seahawks either re-sign Williams or spend in free agency to where they don't get a compensatory pick, this deal will look worse.
I believe it makes sense for Seattle to add talent given the weakness of the NFC, I just believe they overpaid for Williams, especially in the context of their team.
Titans trade S Byard to Eagles for S Edmunds
Titans get: S Terrell Edmunds, 2024 fifth-round pick, 2024 sixth-round pick
Eagles get: S Kevin Byard
Trade date: Oct. 23
Grade for the Titans: B
This deal seems to be the Titans admitting that they aren't contenders. Tennessee is 2-4, 2.5 games out of first place in their weak division and currently has a 13% chance to reach the playoffs, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The Titans have always seemed to outperform their roster under Mike Vrabel, but it's probably best for them to acquire future assets at this point.
As a 30-year-old safety that is under contract for next season (and thus wouldn't land them a compensatory pick), Byard fits the bill as a player to move. He's long been a staple of the Titans defense, but it's much better to lose him for picks now than nothing in the offseason. Compensation-wise, I think this is about what Tennessee should have expected, given Byard's age and position, even though the salary is minimal. Regardless, it makes sense to grab this offer if it's the best available.
In Edmunds, the Titans land a safety with plenty of experience who can play for them in 2023 for minimal cost. They'll pay a prorated version of Edmunds' $1.75 million in salary and roster bonuses for the season, and then he'll be a free agent after the season.
Grade for the Eagles: A-
The Eagles just upgraded, again. Philadelphia is banged up at safety and played the Dolphins on Sunday night without either of their Week 1 starters -- Justin Evans (on IR with a knee injury) and Reed Blankenship (ribs). Byard, a 30-year-old two-time All-Pro, will presumably pair up with Blankenship once the latter is healthy.
Nearest defender statistics are particularly noisy for safeties, but what we see from Byard is strong. This season he has allowed 0.5 yards per coverage snap and minus-1.2 EPA --- both above average for the position, per NFL Next Gen Stats. While the sample is small, it's consistent throughout his career -- he's averaged 0.5 yards per coverage snap since 2016 and has amassed minus-67 total EPA. By comparison, Edmunds, who is being sent to Tennessee in the deal, has career averages of 0.7 yards per coverage snap (average) and plus-37 total EPA allowed (worse than average) over his career. Pair the numbers together with Byard's strong reputation -- including two All-Pro nods -- and we're confident Philadelphia is improving via this deal. Byard is also incredibly durable, having never missed a game in eight seasons.
Philadelphia currently ranks 12th in EPA per play on defense, so there is room to improve.
The Eagles get Byard for cheap money-wise, with about $2.4 million remaining in salary due in 2023, and $13.6 million in non-guaranteed money for 2024. Byard is 30. The Eagles might not want to pay that price next year depending on how this season goes, but it's nice to have the option.
Given the Eagles' current status as championship contenders, improving at one of the few spots on this roster that needs help in exchange for a pair of Day 3 draft picks seems like a strong and worthwhile choice.
Chiefs bring back WR Hardman
Jets get: 2025 sixth-round pick
Chiefs get: Mecole Hardman Jr., 2025 seventh-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 18
Grade for the Jets: C+
When the Jets signed Hardman to a one-year, $4 million deal in the offseason, it appeared they were adding a No. 3-ish receiver who perhaps had some unrealized upside. It turned out there was downside, too. All the Jets got out of Hardman was a single 6-yard reception on three targets. They played him on just 30 snaps despite lacking receiving playmakers. As my colleague Bill Barnwell noted, teammate Randall Cobb -- who is averaging 0.17 yards per route run, the worst mark by a wide receiver since at least 2007 -- played significantly more snaps (181) than Hardman.
It appears the Jets really didn't want to put Hardman on the field. From that standpoint, I get dealing him now. On the other hand, there's a decent chance the 25-year-old was their third-best wide receiver. Or at least fourth, behind Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard and maybe Xavier Gipson. From an outsider's perspective, it's hard to see why the Jets wouldn't give Hardman a shot on the field.
Just one season ago, Hardman had a receiver tracking metrics overall score of 62, which ranked 33rd out of 131 wide receivers. (RTM overall score measures a receiver's ability to get open, make the catch and generate after the catch relative to expectation.) Ultimately the Jets' receiving options after Wilson were a weakness going into the season, and they evidently didn't believe Hardman could be a part of the solution. The weakness remains, though.
Grade for the Chiefs: B+
Although whatever went wrong with the Jets is a major red flag, at least Hardman is going to a place where we've seen him be a useful role player. He hasn't lived up to his draft stock (second-round pick in 2019), but given the lack of pass-catchers behind Travis Kelce, Hardman might be an upgrade.
Skyy Moore ranks 66th out of 77 wideouts in RTM overall score, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is averaging a putrid 0.7 yards per route run. Kadarius Toney has fewer than 100 receiving yards. Rashee Rice is showing promise and looks like a potential answer with 2.9 yards per route run -- but has just 84 routes. The price of this deal amounts to almost nothing. For a team with Super Bowl aspirations and a current weakness at wide receiver, it makes sense to bring in Hardman and see whether he can help.
Falcons add WR help with Jefferson
Rams get: 2025 sixth-round pick
Falcons get: Van Jefferson, 2025 seventh-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 10
Grade for the Rams: B-
Entering the season, it looked like Jefferson had a prime opportunity to earn targets playing in a WR room that featured an injured Cooper Kupp and not much else. But with Kupp back, Jefferson had slid to at least fourth, and maybe even fifth, on the depth chart, behind emerging star Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. Last week against the Eagles, Ben Skowronek played six snaps to Jefferson's two, as well.
When he did play this season, his numbers were not impressive. On 155 routes, Jefferson -- typically a deep threat -- earned 15 targets and caught eight passes for 108 yards. That's the second-worst target rate (10%) among wideouts with at least 100 routes this season, behind only Kansas City's Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He also had two drops on those 15 targets.
Any promise Jefferson has lies in his 2021 season, when caught 50 passes for 802 receiving yards. But he still had lackluster Receiver Tracking Metrics in every category, with an open score of 43, catch score of 43 and YAC score of 49 -- indications that he was below-average at getting open, making the catch and generating after the catch relative to expectations, based on NFL Next Gen Stats player tracking data.
Two weeks ago, he played 86% of the Rams' snaps. It's a little surprising that the team would already give up on him for almost nothing, considering it may need him again in case of injury. Then again, the Rams may feel it's better to get almost nothing for him now than literally nothing in the offseason when his contract is up.
Grade for the Falcons: B
I'm pretty pessimistic about the idea that Jefferson will thrive in a new environment given all the negative numbers above. But at the same time, who is he replacing? After Drake London, the Falcons wide receivers are Mack Hollins (I like Hollins, though, and think he's a better player than Jefferson), KhaDarel Hodge and Scott Miller. Can Jefferson add something to that room? Sure, the Falcons could probably use some depth help beyond London and Hollins.
And the cost is, again, almost nothing.
Broncos change course, trade OLB Gregory to 49ers
Broncos get: 2024 sixth-round pick
49ers get: Randy Gregory, 2024 seventh-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 6
Grade for the Broncos: C
News on Wednesday that the Broncos were planning to cut Gregory came as a surprise. Though he had not been playing well, he was playing, logging 56% of Denver's defensive snaps in four games. Plus, his $14 million salary was fully guaranteed, so there was no incentive to let him go. Clearly something went awry, though, with Gregory's representation asking for his release and the Broncos agreeing (before finding a trade partner).
It's the end of Gregory's run in Denver as a disappointing free agent signing from March 2022. The team got 10 games and three sacks out of him in exchange for $27.5 million, minus whatever small amount the 49ers pay for the rest of the season.
The Broncos signed Gregory after a 2021 campaign in which he had six sacks (tied for a career high) over 12 games, along with a 17% pass rush win rate (PRWR), which is essentially average. He had left knee surgery after the 2021 season and then played just six games for Denver in 2022 because of another knee injury. He had just two sacks and had a below-average 14% PRWR last season.
This season, Gregory's production dropped even further: He has one sack, and his 5% PRWR ranks 56th out of 57 qualifiers at edge rusher. He was pulled from the starting lineup last week in favor of second-year pass-rusher Nik Bonitto.
Could Gregory have been gotten for the bare minimum prior to news breaking that the Broncos were willing to release him? Perhaps. He was at least playing, so it was far less public than, say, the Chase Claypool situation. It's possible the Broncos hurt their own leverage by letting word leak they were moving on, though then again, other teams could see Gregory's lack of pass-rushing impact, too.
There is room for optimism for the Broncos pass rush, as Bonitto has a 21% PRWR this season.
Grade for the 49ers: B
On one hand, I look at Gregory's numbers and think: Why? On the other, given the lack of cost: Why not? He will join a rotation with Drake Jackson and Clelin Ferrell rushing off the edge opposite Nick Bosa.
I don't have high hopes for Gregory to make a major impact given the 5% PRWR I mentioned earlier, but at the same time, I would have said the same thing about Ferrell, who has a palatable 17% PRWR in San Francisco this season, which would be a career high for the No. 4 overall pick in the 2019 draft. Could Gregory be another reclamation project?
The 49ers are paying very little to find out. The trade compensation is virtually nothing, and the salary cost is the veteran minimum.
Bears trade WR Claypool to Dolphins
Bears get: 2025 sixth-round pick
Dolphins get: Chase Claypool, 2025 seventh-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 6
Grade for the Bears: C
Make no mistake, I'm giving the Bears a "C" for this trade based on where things stand today, but they deserve an unequivocal "F" for the entire Claypool ordeal. It started with a poorly thought-out deal last year (I gave it a "D+" at the time) to trade a premium second-round pick for him at a time when they were noncontenders. It ended today with Chicago shipping out Claypool for basically nothing, just 11 months later.
The idea at the time was surely to get quarterback Justin Fields a playmaker, but it absolutely did not pan out. The Bears got 18 receptions for 191 yards and one touchdown in 10 games from Claypool. And to make matters worse, here is Fields' QBR since the deal was made: 51 with Claypool on the field, 69 without him. There's some noise here because of the small sample, but it's still a big gap.
Dramatically overpaying for Claypool as a noncontender was a bad move, but that doesn't mean the team was necessarily the source of his lack of production. After Week 1 this season, Claypool was widely criticized for what appeared to be a lack of effort. On Sep. 29, Claypool was asked if he was being put in the best position to showcase his skill set, and the receiver responded, "No." He was made inactive the following game, and then Bears coach Matt Eberflus caused a kerfuffle by initially claiming the receiver chose not to attend the game before the team clarified it had asked him to not to attend.
All of this -- from the lack of production, to the apparent lack of effort, to the conflict with the team -- surely crushed Claypool's trade value. Still, it's a dramatic fall for a player who was valued by Chicago to be worth a second-round pick. Plus, on Thursday night, the Bears' offense finally hit its stride in 2023, with Claypool inactive again. Fields recorded a 77 QBR via 282 passing yards and four touchdowns en route to a 40-20 win over the Commanders.
Grade for the Dolphins: B+
This is a free roll by the Dolphins. They gave up very little for the 25-year-old Claypool, who has the potential to be a useful player for Miami. As good as the Dolphins' offense has been, their receivers after Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are lackluster. Their healthy Nos. 3, 4 and 5 receivers are Braxton Berrios, Cedrick Wilson Jr. and Robbie Chosen.
As poor as Claypool was in Chicago, he was a capable player in Pittsburgh in 2020 and 2021. He managed more than 800 receiving yards in his first two seasons and his Receiver Tracking Metrics Overall Scores in his first three season were 66, 39 and 59, respectively. If he can play like he did for the Steelers, he should see the field in Miami.
If he can't consistently perform, the Dolphins likely will let him go, no harm done, other than the tiniest of late-round swaps in two years. It's a free shot, and it makes sense for the Dolphins to take it.
Chargers trade CB Jackson to Patriots
Chargers get: 2025 sixth-round pick
Patriots get: J.C. Jackson, 2025 seventh-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 4
Grade for the Chargers: C
When Jackson left New England for L.A. in free agency last year, he was considered one of the best corners in football. He allowed minus-27 expected points added (EPA) as the nearest defender in coverage in 2021, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That ranked second among all corners, behind only Atlanta's A.J. Terrell. He earned second-team All-Pro honors, which helped him land $40 million fully guaranteed from the Chargers. Just 18 months later, the Chargers opted to not play him in his final two games with the team before flipping him back to the Patriots for almost nothing.
Looking back, 2021 wasn't a flash-in-the-pan season for Jackson. He posted double-digit negative EPA allowed numbers in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021. That consistency at the time was impressive given the variant nature of cornerback play from year to year. He had shown a consistent ability to produce. In retrospect, though, a red flag should have been that Jackson had allowed higher than average yards per coverage snaps in both 2020 and 2021, making him reliant on interceptions (of which he recorded 17 those two seasons) to produce his strong numbers.
Jackson was not the same player with the Chargers. He played just five games last season before dislocating his right knee. In total, he allowed 1.9 yards per coverage snap (up from 1.4 the season before) and plus-17 EPA in 2022. Crucially, he had zero interceptions. In his two games this season, things didn't look much better, with Jackson allowing 118 yards on 40 coverage snaps (3.0 yards per coverage snap), though he did have a pick in Week 1.
After Jackson was made a healthy scratch in Week 3 and then played zero snaps in Week 4, the signs were pointing to a player whose time with the Chargers was headed toward an end. For whatever reason, he didn't work in Brandon Staley's defense, and L.A. moved on. In return, the team received a late-round pick swap and $1.5 million in salary relief, because it's taking on most of Jackson's 2024 guaranteed salary. That's it. Signing Jackson ended up being disastrous, as the Chargers paid him $38.5 million for seven games.
Grade for the Patriots: A-
All of the problems with Jackson's play with the Chargers I outlined in the section above still apply. Then again, that's why he's returning to the Patriots for basically nothing.
New England is acquiring Jackson in a time of need, as rookie first-round pick Christian Gonzalez tore his right labrum in Week 4 and is out indefinitely. The Patriots already were banged up at cornerback prior to Gonzalez's injury.
This deal is absolutely a swing worth taking for New England. It cost very little, and they're putting a player back in circumstances in which he previously thrived. I don't know if it was a difference in schematics, comfort, luck or anything else that led to Jackson's severe drop-off in play, but the Patriots now get a chance to find out whether they can get back the old Jackson. He's still only 27 years old.
If he returns to being even an average player, he will fill a critical void and could be a turnover generator during the remainder of the season. If not, there's almost nothing lost, because the salary and draft capital cost is miniscule and New England already was pressed into playing backups at corner.
Jackson is under contract through 2026, but his 2024 cost -- between salary and roster bonus -- is over $14 million. He would have to turn back into the Jackson of old for the Patriots to even think about keeping him at that price. This is a trade meant for the short-term.
Rams trade RB Akers to Vikings
Rams get: 2026 conditional sixth-round pick
Vikings get: Cam Akers, 2026 conditional seventh-round pick
Trade date: Sept. 20
Grade for the Vikings: B+
Even before the trade, Akers' career has been a disappointment -- in terms of both on-field production and a right Achilles injury that robbed him of most of his 2021 season. On the field, he had negative rush yards over expectation (RYOE) in every season of his career, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He adds little in the receiving game, with just 27 regular-season receptions and one score. So why the B+ here?
The player he will compete with for playing time in Minnesota is similar: Alexander Mattison has carried the ball 19 times for 62 yards as the Vikings' lead back this season. He had negative RYOE in 2021, 2022 and through two games this season. Last season, Mattison recorded minus-42 RYOE, and Akers had minus-14.
There is one small reason for optimism with Akers, because the further he got from his Achilles injury, the more his performance improved. Starting from Week 10 of last season, he had plus-33 RYOE. Akers might be an upgrade over Mattison.
Ultimately, the price here is as low as it can go. Paying almost nothing to acquire a player who could start seems plenty fine.
Grade for the Rams: B-
I wasn't bullish on Akers' chances to be an impact player for the Rams for all the reasons I laid out above. L.A. coach Sean McVay said the team was "headed" toward trading Akers after he was a healthy inactive in Week 2. Prior to the game Sunday, Akers posted on X, "I'm just as confused as everybody else." Akers also spent time away from the team last season while it looked at options to trade him, only for him to return.
It was a little surprising it ended this way for Akers and the Rams after McVay force-fed him during the team's Super Bowl run in 2021, despite his inefficiency after returning from his injury. He rushed 67 times for just 172 yards with no touchdowns and two fumbles in those four postseason games.
With Akers gone, Kyren Williams solidifies his role as the Rams' starting back, which seemed to be the case, anyway. Williams has put up strong fantasy numbers with four touchdowns in two games, but his efficiency has been lacking. He is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry and has minus-14 RYOE.
Maybe the Rams could have gotten slightly more for Akers a week ago, before he was a healthy scratch. Then again, other teams can see his rushing inefficiency, too.