So long, Seminoles. Hello, USC.
Week 1 has already impacted the College Football Playoff race, which is proof the regular season still matters in the new 12-team field.
"I don't coach for the media, I don't coach for headlines," USC coach Lincoln Riley said after his team's 27-20 win over LSU in Las Vegas.
"I'm not the most experienced guy, but I've been through a couple of these," he said, "I have a decent idea of what pretty good looks like, and I know we're making progress."
Enough progress to earn a spot in this week's Bubble Watch, which includes the predicted 12-team bracket, who gets first-round byes, the first four out, the next four in line, and how the Group of 5 conference champions will stack up.
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, the SEC now has a 46.2% chance to get five or more teams into the 12-team field.
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Byes | First-round matchups
First four out | Next four out
Group of 5
Projected 12-team bracket
First-round byes
Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 12 from the CFP committee
No. 1 seed Georgia Bulldogs: The Bulldogs would earn the top seed as the SEC champion and the highest-ranked conference champion. This is based on Georgia also being the selection committee's No. 1 team overall on Selection Day. Following its convincing win against Clemson, the Bulldogs enter Week 2 ranked No. 3 in ESPN's strength of record metric, which has typically lined up well with the committee's top four teams in the previous CFP format. Georgia is also No. 1 in ESPN's Football Power Index and has a conference-best 30.4% chance to win the SEC.
No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes would earn the No. 2 seed as the projected Big Ten champion and the second-highest-ranked conference winner behind Georgia. With Oregon struggling against FCS opponent Idaho and Ohio State cruising past Akron, it's easier to separate the two Big Ten heavyweights this week. While Oregon will tangle at home with a feisty Boise State team in Week 2, Ohio State has a 98.1% chance to beat Western Michigan at home this week. The Buckeyes don't have the résumé (yet), but they are passing the eye test.
No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: It's still early, but the Canes are looking like the ACC's top team after both FSU and Clemson opened their seasons with losses. Granted, Miami took advantage of a dysfunctional Florida team, but it looked good in the process and it's still tough to beat a rival on its turf. Clemson can still win the ACC -- and it's possible Miami could also be in the 12-team field, but the Tigers were measured against a playoff team Saturday and left with three points. According to ESPN Analytics, Miami now has the best chance to win the ACC (25.7%), ahead of both Louisville (25.2%) and Clemson (13%).
No. 4 seed Utah Utes: The Big 12 still looks like one of the most intriguing conference races, but Utah is getting the benefit of the doubt in Bubble Watch because of its championship experience on the sideline with coach Kyle Whittingham and at quarterback with Cam Rising. Rising is back and he let everyone know it with five touchdowns on just 10-of-15 passing in a 49-0 rout of Southern Utah. The Utes also have a stingy defense that should get the edge on Baylor this week. If this projection is to hold, though, Utah must avoid an upset and get key wins at Oklahoma State and UCF, arguably its two toughest games of the season.
The College Football Playoff expands to 12 teams this season. Learn how it will play out, from the first round through the national championship game on Jan. 20, 2025.
First-round matchups (on campus)
No. 12 Boise State Broncos at No. 5 Texas Longhorns
Winner plays: No. 4 Utah
Explaining the seeding: Projected Mountain West Conference champion Boise State would finish the season ranked outside of the committee's projected top 12 but still earn the No. 12 seed -- at the expense of No. 11 Missouri in the committee's ranking. This would happen because Utah, which in this scenario is ranked No. 12 by the committee, would be promoted to the No. 4 seed. After the four highest-ranked conference champions are slotted into the top four seeds, the committee then moves down its ranking and seeds the next seven highest-ranked teams. That would not include No. 11 Mizzou. The committee would then include the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, which in this case would be Boise State.
No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions
Winner plays: No. 1 Georgia
Explaining the seeding: Now that all five of the conference champions have been accounted for, this is where the bracket is composed entirely of at-large bids. The committee will evaluate those teams in its ranking the same way it always has -- using head-to-head results, strength of schedule and common opponents as its tiebreakers. Penn State boosted its résumé with a convincing win at West Virginia. Ole Miss simply looked the part of a playoff team in a lopsided win against an overmatched FCS team Furman. Consider the importance of seeding in this particular matchup -- the winner has to play the No. 1 seed and the best team in the country.
No. 11 Oregon Ducks at No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Winner plays: No. 3 Miami
Explaining the seeding: This is projecting Oregon to finish as the Big Ten's fourth-best team behind Ohio State, USC and Penn State. It's also based on one week's worth of data, and the Ducks hardly looked like a playoff contender against FCS Idaho. In fact, even with the win, their playoff chances dropped from 75% to 33%. As an independent, Notre Dame can't be seeded any higher than No. 5 because the top four spots are reserved for the top four conference champions. That also means Notre Dame can't earn a first-round bye in this format. The Irish are the sixth seed here because the No. 5 seed went to the SEC runner-up, Texas, which is the committee's No. 2 team in the country.
No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 7 USC Trojans
Winner plays: No. 2 Ohio State
Explaining the seeding: This would be the SEC's fourth and final team in this bracket, and USC would be the Big Ten's second-best team behind Ohio State. After beating LSU in a neutral-site season opener that featured a mostly LSU crowd, the Trojans moved to No. 2 in ESPN's strength of record metric behind Notre Dame. The selection committee does not consider the possibility of rematches when it does its top-25 rankings, and this opens up that possibility. If USC and Ohio State play for the Big Ten title, with Ohio State winning as this Bubble Watch projects, they could face each other again in the quarterfinals if USC wins this first-round home game against the Tide.
First four out
Missouri Tigers: The Tigers are here because they got bumped out of the selection committee's top 12 to make room for Boise State as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. The Bubble Watch agrees here with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, which has Missouri with the 12th-best chance to reach the CFP (31.8%).
Tennessee Volunteers: The Allstate Playoff Predictor likes the Vols more than Missouri, giving them a 49.9% chance to reach the 12-team field. This is certainly possible with a quarterback as talented as Nico Iamaleava, but the Vols would bolster the hype more with a win Saturday against NC State in the Duke's Mayo Classic. ESPN Analytics gives the Vols an 88.1% chance to win.
Michigan Wolverines: The Wolverines still have too many questions to be considered anything more than a borderline CFP team, but that could change immediately with a home win against Texas on Saturday. ESPN Analytics gives the Longhorns a 73.8% chance to win, though. Michigan currently has a 20.4% chance to reach the Big Ten title game and a 6.8% chance to win the conference.
Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners had no trouble dismantling Temple 51-3 on a Friday night, but they might have a tough time establishing themselves as a top contender in the SEC in their first year in the conference. According to ESPN Analytics, the Sooners have the seventh-best chance in the SEC to reach the conference championship game (6.7%).
Next four out
Kansas State Wildcats: There are seven teams in the Big 12 with at least an 18% chance to make the conference championship game. As the race plays out, the separation will occur on the field and in the Bubble Watch. Kansas State had no trouble with UT Martin, but it could be walking into a trap Saturday at Tulane (see below for the Group of 5 power rankings).
Oklahoma State Cowboys: The Cowboys' defense showed promise but still has some work to do after a 44-20 win against South Dakota State, which is no FCS pushover. Still, with only one penalty, it was a disciplined performance for a season opener. A home win Saturday against Arkansas could help bolster the Cowboys' playoff résumé -- if Arkansas has a respectable season.
Kansas Jayhawks: If you don't know where Lindenwood is, you don't get to put Kansas in the playoff after its 48-3 win. Kansas will have a better chance Saturday to show its CFP merit with what could be a tricky trip to Illinois. ESPN Analytics likes the Jayhawks, giving them the best chance to win the Big 12 (16.2%).
LSU Tigers: In his first season, Brian Kelly lost the season opener to Florida State and went on to play for the SEC title. It's too early to write off a team that lost a close, neutral-site game to what appears to be a Big Ten contender in USC. The Tigers' CFP hopes took a nosedive (5.5%), but they should win the next four and put themselves in position to have a statement home win against Ole Miss.
Group of 5 Power Rankings
1. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West): The Broncos got into an unexpected tussle with Georgia Southern on Saturday, escaping with a 56-45 win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Ashton Jeanty ran for 267 yards and six touchdowns in the win, but the Broncos have their toughest test of the season Saturday at Oregon.
2. Tulane Green Wave (American Athletic): According to ESPN Analytics, Tulane has a 45% chance to beat Kansas State in New Orleans. If the Green Wave win, their chance to reach the playoff will climb to 32%. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, this is the second-most impactful CFP game of the week, trailing only Texas at Michigan.
3. Memphis Tigers (American Athletic): The Tigers routed North Alabama 40-0 and have a 61.5% chance to beat Troy at home Saturday. If they start 2-0, they could be rolling into Tallahassee on Sept. 14 with some confidence and an opportunity for a statement win.
4. App State Mountaineers (Sun Belt): The Mountaineers are going to have their hands full Saturday with a Clemson defensive line that held its own against Georgia for a half Saturday. They're coming off a convincing 38-10 win against East Tennessee State, but Clemson is desperate to avoid an upset and its first 0-2 start since 1975.
5. James Madison Dukes (Sun Belt): This is another team that has a chance to impress the committee with a Power 4 win, as the Dukes face North Carolina on Sept. 21. Right now that's the only game ESPN Analytics gives JMU less than a 50% chance to win.