The Playbook, Week 1: Ravens, Commanders, Seahawks among most likely to win

Welcome to the Week 1 Fantasy Football Playbook. While the season has kicked off with Thursday night's Chiefs-Lions tilt, there are still 15 games to play on the week's slate of NFL games, This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.)

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Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons -3.5
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Miles Sanders, Drake London, Kyle Pitts

• DJ Chark Jr. (hamstring) has missed some practice time, but he's expected to play in the season opener. There's some added risk here, but he and fellow veteran newcomer Adam Thielen (who has also missed practice time) are your top fantasy options from Carolina's WR room. Thielen is the safer play, but Chark's vertical ability allows him more upside. Rookie Jonathan Mingo could prove to be the best of the bunch in time, but he's too risky to count on in his pro debut. He should only be in your flex if both Chark and Thielen are out.

Over/Under: 40.8 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 53% (15th highest)

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens -10

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Dameon Pierce, Mark Andrews

• J.K. Dobbins missed some offseason activities due to contract and injury issues, but he's expected to lead the Baltimore backfield right out of the gate this season. Concerns about his passing-game involvement remain, but his elite rushing ability keeps him in the RB2 mix, especially against a Houston defense that finished fifth or worse in RB fantasy points allowed in each of the past four seasons (most in 2022) and still has concerns in the front seven.

• Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers will make their Baltimore debuts this week, and both are best viewed as flex options until we see how the usage sorts out among those two and Rashod Bateman. Beckham is the safer Week 1 flex, but keep in mind that Houston has a pretty good foursome at cornerback and allowed the fewest TD catches (6) and fourth-fewest WR fantasy points in 2022.

Over/Under: 46.8 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 79% (2nd highest)

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 @ Cleveland Browns

Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper, David Njoku

• There aren't many "fringe players" in this game, with secondary wide receivers such as Elijah Moore, Tyler Boyd and Donovan Peoples-Jones best used only in deeper leagues. Moore is the most intriguing flex dart throw, as the former Jet has looked terrific this offseason and could finish as high as second for targets in a Cleveland offense expected to throw the ball more often. He'll enjoy an added boost if top Bengals CB Chidobe Awuzie shadows Cooper.

Over/Under: 48.3 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 54% (14th highest)

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 @ Indianapolis Colts

Lineup locks: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram

• Jonathan Taylor (PUP, ankle) is out for at least four weeks, which sets up Zack Moss, Deon Jackson and rookie Evan Hull as a probable Week 1 committee in the Colts' backfield. We saw Jackson handle some spot-start work last year, and he averaged 14.9 fantasy PPG during the five outings in which he reached double-digit touches. He and Moss (who has missed several weeks of practice with a broken hand) are the safer desperation flex plays, but this is a situation best avoided.

• Christian Kirk and Michael Pittman Jr. were lineup locks for most of last season, but both took a value hit during the offseason. Kirk will defer substantial targets to newcomer Ridley, whereas Pittman will need to overcome a rookie quarterback (Anthony Richardson) and an offense likely to throw the ball considerably less often. Both Kirk and Pittman are WR3/flex options.

Over/Under: 45.8 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 65% (9th highest)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings -5.5

Lineup locks: Alexander Mattison, Rachaad White, Justin Jefferson, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, T.J. Hockenson

• Jordan Addison is an exciting young player who could be in line for a terrific rookie season, but he should be anywhere between third and fifth in line for targets in his pro debut. That makes him a risky fantasy option, so he's best left on benches.

Over/Under: 44.4 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 68% (5th highest)

Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints -3
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, Chris Olave, DeAndre Hopkins

• Alvin Kamara (suspension) will miss Weeks 1-3, which positions Jamaal Williams as the Saints' early-season lead back. Williams, who led the NFL in rushing scores last season, should lead the team in carries and goal-line work, but he wasn't a factor in the passing game last season and the Jeffery Simmons-led Titans have been elite at slowing backs over the past two seasons. Consider Williams as a fringe RB2, although he'll be a little more appealing if Kendre Miller (hamstring) doesn't suit up.

• Michael Thomas is expected to be a "full go" this week after missing 40 of the Saints' past 50 games. The good news is that he's been effective when active, having posted a 16-171-3 receiving line on 22 targets in his three games last season. Although Thomas no longer leads New Orleans in targets, he'll have enough of a role to warrant WR3 consideration.

Over/Under: 41.4 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 61% (10th highest)

San Francisco 49ers -2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Najee Harris, Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson, George Kittle, Pat Freiermuth

• The 49ers have a great defense, but it was elite against the run and shaky against receivers last season -- a characteristic that might continue, considering their shaky CB situation behind Charvarius Ward. George Pickens stands to benefit out of the gate and is on the WR3 radar in Week 1 of what might be his breakout season.

• Brandon Aiyuk might seem low for a player coming off a career year in which he finished 15th in fantasy points (24th in PPG), but he was way over his head in the TD department and has a ton of competition for touches in McCaffrey, Samuel and Kittle. Aiyuk is best viewed as a flex on the road against a very good Steelers defense.

Over/Under: 38.9 (16th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 54% (13th highest)

Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders -7

Lineup locks: James Conner, Terry McLaurin, Marquise Brown

• McLaurin (toe) is questionable for this game. If he plays, he should be in lineups, whereas Jahan Dotson would be a WR3/flex and Curtis Samuel bench material. If McLaurin is out, Dotson moves up to "lineup lock" territory and Samuel into WR3/flex.

• Arizona's CB room is as shaky as they come, so unless those players show up with fire in their gut, this is a smash spot for Washington's passing game. Do we dare stream Sam Howell in just his second NFL start? It's tempting in a home game against a rebuilding Arizona squad. Even if the UNC product underwhelms through the air, he can contribute with his legs (35 yards and 1 TD on five carries in his lone 2022 start). Alas, his experience makes him risky and McLaurin isn't fully healthy. Howell is safest as a QB2 and DFS punt play.

Over/Under: 39.9 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 70% (4th highest)

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears -1

Lineup locks: Justin Fields, Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, DJ Moore

• Khalil Herbert appears to have won Chicago's lead back gig, and, although a breakout season would make him one of the year's top fantasy values, it's more likely he'll be leading a committee that also includes D'Onta Foreman and perhaps Roschon Johnson. Herbert is likely looking at 13-15 touches in the opener and is best valued as a flex.

• Cole Kmet was a solid late-round value throughout draft season and is very much on the TE1 radar in Week 1. After a slow start last season, he ranked fourth in TE fantasy points during his final nine games.

Over/Under: 43.7 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Bears 55% (12th highest)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos -3.5

Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Jerry Jeudy

• Russell Wilson's first season in Denver went about as poorly as possible, but he quietly had a strong finish and now gets a boost from the arrival of Sean Payton. He is an intriguing Week 1 streaming option against a shaky Raiders defense.

• Javonte Williams (torn ACL) played during the preseason, but, although he's likely to be active in Week 1, a full complement of snaps is doubtful. Instead, we should expect a rotation with Samaje Perine (perhaps the better fantasy option this week) and might also see a few touches for impressive rookie Jaleel McLaughlin.

• Jeudy (hamstring) is questionable for Week 1. If he's out, Courtland Sutton gets a boost to WR2/3 territory and Marvin Mims Jr. becomes a sleeper for a hefty target load in his NFL debut. Sutton has struggled to find the end zone in recent seasons (only four TDs in 32 games over the past two seasons), but if Jeudy is out, he'll be peppered with enough targets that he'd be tough to bench. In the four games when Jeudy was out or barely played last season, Sutton averaged a massive 29% target share and was fantasy's WR14 in terms of scoring.

Over/Under: 47.7 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 66% (8th highest)

Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers -3

Lineup locks: Austin Ekeler, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams

• Both quarterbacks are fringe starting options in Week 1. Justin Herbert was drafted to be a starter (which is why I'm ranking him ahead of Tua Tagovailoa despite a slightly lower projection), but considering he'll face Miami's loaded defense, you could make a case for his being a streaming option. Tagovailoa is also one of those potential streamers, as he was terrific when healthy last season (first in YPA, third in QBR, seventh in fantasy PPG), although his ceiling is limited a bit by a lack of rushing.

• Jeff Wilson Jr. (abdomen) is out for Weeks 1-4, which positions Raheem Mostert and perhaps rookie De'Von Achane (battling a shoulder injury) for a majority of Miami's Week 1 RB touches. Mostert, who sports a historically elite 5.38 YPC in his career, sat 27th in RB fantasy points before Wilson's arrival last season, so his upside is very much limited even if he's in the lead back role. That's still the case against a Chargers defense that has struggled against the run during the Brandon Staley era.

Over/Under: 46.8 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 51% (16th highest)

Philadelphia Eagles -4 @ New England Patriots

Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Rhamondre Stevenson, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert

• Sorting out the Eagles' RB situation is one of the most complicated challenges in fantasy football this season. Swift is the most accomplished of the group, and his receiving chops are enough to make him the top flex option. Rashaad Penny is likely to handle a generous chunk of early-down work, but he might be lucky to see one target. Kenneth Gainwell will mix in (perhaps primarily on third down). It's possible none of these backs will emerge as a consistent fantasy producer.

• JuJu Smith-Schuster might emerge as a viable weekly WR3/flex, but he gets a downgrade this week against a good Eagles CB room. Smith-Schuster will get plenty of slot run, but that won't be a walk in the park against a healthy Avonte Maddox, and he'll be outside against Darius Slay or James Bradberry when the Patriots have two tight ends on the field.

Over/Under: 47 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 66% (7th highest)

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks -5.5

Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, Cam Akers, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

• Geno Smith was not drafted to be a weekly fantasy starter, but he's a strong streaming option against what is, on paper, arguably the league's shakiest defense. Expect Smith, who threw 30 touchdowns and ranked eighth in QB rushing yards last season, to start 2023 with a bang.

• Cooper Kupp (hamstring) is out for Week 1, which opens up a substantial target share for the team's other pass-catchers. Van Jefferson becomes Los Angeles' top receiver. Granted, Matthew Stafford was sidelined for half the season, but note that Jefferson failed to clear 12.5 fantasy points in any single game last season. Consider Jefferson as a flex. Similarly, Tutu Atwell handled a 16% target share when Kupp was out last season, but that translated to just 7.0 fantasy PPG.

• Tyler Higbee didn't get much respect during draft season despite finishing sixth in TE fantasy points and fifth in TE receptions last season. He'll get a boost in usage with Kupp sidelined -- and he saw eight-plus targets in five out of nine games with Stafford last season. Consider Higbee to be a midrange TE1.

Over/Under: 49.3 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 74% (3rd highest)

Dallas Cowboys -3.5 @ New York Giants

Lineup locks: Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, Darren Waller

• Dak Prescott and Daniel Jones are fringe starting options this week. Prescott is eyeing a rebound campaign after pacing the NFL in interceptions last season, and will have a terrific WR trio (Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup) at his disposal. Jones will need to overcome a good Dallas defense, but he'll have a better supporting cast (led by Waller) this season.

• Cooks was undervalued in fantasy drafts throughout the offseason and shouldn't be overlooked as a WR3/flex option in his Dallas debut. Cooks, who is entering his 10th NFL season at age 29, has finished as a top-25 fantasy wideout in seven of his nine pro seasons.

Over/Under: 47 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 67% (6th highest)

Buffalo Bills -2.5 @ New York Jets

Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Garrett Wilson

• Aaron Rodgers is certainly motivated to put up big numbers in his New York debut, but he's a risky fantasy play against a terrific Buffalo defense. The Bills have finished no worse than third in QB fantasy points allowed during four of the past five seasons, including two years straight. Rodgers is coming off a season with zero 20-plus point outings and is no longer a factor with his legs. He's best left on benches this week.

• It's brother vs. brother as James Cook and Dalvin Cook face off on "Monday Night Football." Little brother James is the superior fantasy option, as all reports indicate that the 2022 second-round pick has clear control of the Buffalo backfield. This is a tough matchup, however, so consider him an RB2/flex. Dalvin should be valued similarly in his Jets debut, although he'll be more secure at RB2 if Breece Hall (ACL) is inactive. Hall is expected to be limited early on this season, which is why he's buried in the ranks.

Over/Under: 45.4 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 57% (11th highest)