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Fantasy football Shadow Report: Upgrade Jefferson, Lamb and more

Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings catches a touchdown. Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire

Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can help you make the best lineup decisions. By utilizing our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

Down below are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB Cheatsheet.

Note that, unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjusts to a per-game basis in order to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.

Projected Shadow Matchups

Bills' Stefon Diggs vs. Dolphins' Jalen Ramsey (Shadow)

Ramsey has shadowed once since his Week 8 return, but it came against Garrett Wilson in Week 15 when Xavien Howard was sidelined. That's notable this week as Howard (foot) will again be sidelined.

This is a huge game (the winner takes the AFC East crown and Buffalo could miss the playoffs with a loss), so Miami choosing to put its star corner on the Bills' top receiver makes sense. Ramsey has been strong in coverage and has rarely been targeted.

Diggs had a huge game against Miami in Week 4 (6-120-3 on seven targets), but Ramsey didn't play that week.

Takeaway: This is a tough matchup for Diggs, and he should be downgraded. Gabriel Davis can be upgraded against Eli Apple, who will replace Howard.

Bears' DJ Moore vs. Packers' Jaire Alexander (Shadow)

These teams met in Week 1, and Alexander shadowed Moore on 22 of his 26 routes prior to resting late. That included 21 of 21 perimeter routes. Moore was limited to a 2-25-0 receiving line on two targets in the game.

Despite Alexander's success, he hasn't been as dominant as usual this season and has barely played over the past two months because of injury and suspension. Still, we should expect the talented corner to cover Moore the 79% of the time he's aligned on the perimeter.

Takeaway: Expectations for Moore can be lowered slightly, but he remains a strong play, especially after performing well against Atlanta's good pass defense last week.

Raiders' Davante Adams vs. Broncos' Pat Surtain II (Shadow)

Surtain has shadowed in roughly half of Denver's games this season, and that included a Week 1 showdown with Adams. Surtain aligned against Adams on 16 of his 25 routes, including 14 of 16 on the perimeter and 2 of 8 in the slot. Adams had a serviceable but unspectacular game, posting a 6-66-0 receiving line on nine targets.

The Broncos have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to WRs this season, though they're closer to middle of the pack over the past four weeks. Expect these two to face off on a majority of Adams' boundary routes (where he has aligned 82% of the time this season).

Takeaway: Expectations for Adams should be lowered a bit.

Vikings' Justin Jefferson vs. Lions' Cameron Sutton (Shadow)

These teams played in Week 16, and Sutton shadowed Jefferson on 30 of his 38 routes, including 26 of 27 on the perimeter and four of 10 in the slot. Jefferson had little trouble in the game, posting a 6-141-1 receiving line on 10 targets.

Detroit continues to get sliced up by wide receivers, having allowed the most fantasy points to the position over the past eight weeks. The Lions have allowed the sixth-most points to the perimeter and most to the slot during the span.

Takeaway: Sutton is a solid player but won't be much of a detriment to Jefferson, who can be upgraded against this defense.

Eagles' DeVonta Smith vs. Giants' Adoree' Jackson (Shadow); Eagles' A.J. Brown vs. Giants' Deonte Banks (Shadow)

This one has quite a bit of uncertainty, as Banks was out because of a shoulder injury last week and Smith is dealing with a foot injury suffered late in Sunday's loss. If both play, we should expect similar deployment to what we saw when these teams played in Week 16. Prior to Banks departing because of the shoulder injury, he shadowed Brown on 18 of his 24 routes (18 of 18 on the perimeter), and Jackson shadowed Smith on 14 of 23 routes (13 of 14 on the perimeter). When Banks left, Nick McCloud shadowed Smith and it was a group effort against Brown.

Both Brown (6-80-0 receiving line on 11 targets) and Smith (4-79-1 on five targets) had solid fantasy outings, though it's worth noting that Brown did a lot of his damage once Banks left (2-11-0 on four targets against Banks). The Giants have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to WRs this season.

Takeaway: There are a lot of variables here, and the Giants have struggled overall against wide receivers, so there's no need to adjust the expectations for Brown and, if he plays, Smith.

Tough Matchups

Patriots' DeVante Parker, Demario Douglas and Jalen Reagor vs. Jets' D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II and Sauce Gardner

The Jets are coming off a disastrous showing against Cleveland, but they've still allowed the fewest receptions, yards, touchdowns (five) and fantasy points to WRs, as well as the fewest points to the perimeter and 10th fewest to the slot.

The latter number is notable this week, as Douglas (64% slot) is likely the only Patriots' WR you're considering. Downgrade the New England passing game, but Douglas can still be considered a WR3/flex.

Buccaneers' Mike Evans, Trey Palmer and Chris Godwin vs. Panthers' Donte Jackson, Troy Hill and Jaycee Horn

Carolina has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including the seventh fewest to the perimeter and fewest to the slot. Only three wide receivers have reached 19 fantasy points against Carolina: superstars Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson and, most notable this week, Evans. Evans went off for 7-162-1 on 12 targets when these teams met in Week 13.

Of course, he was on his own, as his teammates combined for a 7-40-0 line on 15 targets in the game. That includes a zero-catch effort by Godwin. We're still starting Evans and Godwin here, though expectations should be lowered a bit, especially for Godwin.

Saints' A.T. Perry, Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave vs. Falcons' A.J. Terrell, Mike Hughes and Clark Phillips III

The Falcons' man heavy scheme has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to WRs, including the third fewest to the perimeter, and is middle of the pack against the slot.

Olave managed a solid fantasy showing when these teams played in Week 12 (7-114-0 on nine targets), though most of that damage came against Jeff Okudah, who has since been benched. No other Saints wide receiver cleared 20 yards in the game, though Shaheed left injured after 13 routes. Expectations for the Saints' WR room should be downgraded a bit.

Advantageous Matchups

Cowboys' Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks vs. Commanders' Kendall Fuller, Jartavius Martin and Benjamin St-Juste

Washington has allowed the second-most fantasy points, yards and touchdowns (25), as well as the highest yards per target (9.7) to wide receivers this season. The Commanders have surrendered the most points to the perimeter and ninth most to the slot. Fuller has played well, but he hasn't had much help, and both he and St-Juste were out with injuries last week.

When these teams played in Week 12, Cooks (4-72-1 on five targets) and Lamb (4-53-1 on nine targets) both had solid fantasy games and KaVontae Turpin added a 34-yard touchdown. This is a great matchup for Dallas' wide receiver room and will be even better if Fuller remains out.

Jaguars' Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones vs. Titans' Tre Avery, Roger McCreary and Sean Murphy-Bunting

The Titans are dealing with major injury issues in the secondary, and that is highlighted by Kristian Fulton (currently on IR) and Murphy-Bunting both missing Week 16 and Avery (Fulton's replacement) missing Week 17. Tennessee has surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers, including the second most to the perimeter and ninth fewest to the slot.

Ridley (80% perimeter) and Jones (69%) both primarily align out wide and are in a terrific spot against Murphy-Bunting and Avery (or, if Avery is out, Eric Garror). Ridley had his best game of the season (7-103-2 on nine targets) when these teams played in Week 11.