Shohei Ohtani is a Dodger! For a long time, and for a lot of money. After a wild week of rumors (and several more weeks of silence preceding it), Ohtani announced his decision on Instagram: He's leaving the Los Angeles Angels to head crosstown to join the Los Angeles Dodgers. His deal, for 10 years and $700 million, dwarfs every professional contract in MLB and in American sports. How does it change Dodgers' 2024 outlook -- and the MLB landscape? Our MLB experts weigh in on the big questions about this very big deal.
$700 million!! What do you make of the money?
Alden Gonzalez: Here's my best attempt to put this into context: When the year began and it was suggested that Ohtani could sign the first $500 million contract in North American sports history, people were shocked. Then he tore his ulnar collateral ligament, underwent Tommy John surgery -- or some version of it -- for the second time and put his pitching career in serious jeopardy. And he signed for $700 million. That's more than the two largest prior free agent contracts combined ($360 million for Aaron Judge, $330 million for Bryce Harper). It is truly unbelievable. But it says a lot not just about the uniqueness of Ohtani, but of the additional revenue he brings in.
Kiley McDaniel: Even with the big deferrals -- "most" of the contract according to our reporting -- this is more than anyone was expecting. Mookie Betts' $365 million deal with the Dodgers has a lot of deferred money and is valued for CBT (competitive balance tax) purposes by MLB at just over $306 million. We don't know the full terms of the deferrals yet, but if the proportions are the same, that puts Ohtani at roughly $588 million. That's a number that's a bit above expectations post-injury, but not by that much. I'd imagine before the end of the offseason we'll see how the contract structure impacts the full value.
David Schoenfield: Before the start of the 2023 season, we were talking about a $450 million contract ... maybe $500 million. As the season went on, estimates from insiders started going up and didn't drop even as Ohtani injured his pitching elbow. So I figured maybe it would land at $600 million ... but $700 million is a staggering number. Of course, if you factor in the potential additional off-the-field revenue that Ohtani -- and arguably ONLY Ohtani -- can bring in, maybe it makes sense, especially for a big-market, brand-name franchise like the Dodgers.
Jesse Rogers: I'm not as shocked as some might be. Multiple teams being involved -- including Arte Moreno's Angels -- meant the number was bound to go up. The destination isn't a surprise -- many thought Ohtani knew all along where he wanted to go -- but he has agents for a reason. One source recently said his people were creating a "sweepstakes" so $600 million was always in play. At $700 million, the Dodgers simply made sure no one would outbid them.
Buster Olney: Until we see how much deferred money it is, I don't think we should even reference this as a $700 million contract. Some of the executives who have been monitoring this situation closely expect the actual present-day value to be closer to $550 million. It's a little like calling an apartment "water view" when it's eight blocks back from the shoreline and you can only see a glimpse of blue if you stand on your toes in the attic. Either way, it's a hell of a contract, but the details of how long the Dodgers have to pay out this deal will be interesting -- sort of like a version of Bobby Bonilla's deal with the New York Mets.
Are the Dodgers the new team to beat in the NL -- or all of baseball?
Gonzalez: They will be once they do what we expect them to do, which is to use their robust farm system to acquire high-end starting pitching. The size of this Ohtani contract, coupled with heightened interest from the New York Yankees and the Mets, might make them a long shot for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. But the likes of Tyler Glasnow, Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease can still be accessed via trade, and plenty of mid-rotation arms remain in free agency. The Dodgers have continually been World Series favorites, only to fall flat in the early part of October. Their latest exit -- a demoralizing sweep at the hands of an inferior Arizona Diamondbacks team -- might have pushed them even harder toward Ohtani. This is the type of high-end talent that can make the difference in small sample sizes, and it's what the Dodgers need.
McDaniel: I'll take the Braves over the Dodgers since I'm still not sure about the Dodgers' pitching in 2024 without Ohtani as an option. I think the Braves will be adding another starter; as it stands now, the Dodgers' 2024 rotation is Bobby Miller in his first full big league season and Walker Buehler coming off of Tommy John surgery, followed by some question mark types, so there are moves to be made there as well. This might go back and forth all winter, but the Braves and Dodgers are the best two lineups and overall teams in the NL, and you may soon be able to argue that they're tops in baseball at both things, as well.
Schoenfield: Not necessarily -- and certainly not in 2024, when Ohtani won't pitch. The Dodgers still have major holes in their rotation to fill. The only reliable starter back from 2023 is Bobby Miller. We don't know whether Walker Buehler will return to his old level. We don't know how good the other young starters will be -- or whether they'll even be good. Now, no doubt, the Dodgers will sign a free agent (heck, why not go ALL IN and sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto while they're at it?!) or maybe trade for a Dylan Cease or Tyler Glasnow (or sign a free agent and make a trade). In the meantime, the Braves are still a powerhouse, the defending champion Rangers might be better, the Astros and Orioles are strong, the Yankees added Juan Soto and certainly aren't done ... the top of the heap across MLB is extremely deep.
Rogers: I wouldn't call them the team to beat just yet -- pitching is still the name of the game, and if we learned anything from the Angels, it's that one or even two stars don't win you championships. In a year, Ohtani will provide double the trouble when he returns to the mound, but for 2024, the Dodgers still need plenty of pitching help. Having said that, now they can turn their attention to pitching this offseason. They're not the favorites, but they're in the team photo.
Olney: It'll be so much fun for Dave Roberts to pencil in those names at the top of his lineup, and they will have a great offensive team -- but they did last year, too. It remains to be seen whether they can deal for enough starting pitching to win 100 games.
With more than $1.2 billion in total salary, are Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Ohtani the greatest trio in the same lineup in MLB history?
Gonzalez: We must always guard against recency bias in situations like these. There have been some incredible lineup trios throughout major league history (just to name a few: Willie Mays, Willie McCovey and Orlando Cepeda; Mark McGwire, Jose Canseco and Rickey Henderson). Heck, just last year the division-rival San Diego Padres had an amazing foursome in Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts. Here's the thing, though: None of those dudes could also pitch. By 2025, Ohtani vows to again.
McDaniel: Seems like yes? Acuna/Olson/Riley, Judge/Soto/Torres, and Alvarez/Tucker/Bregman are all in the conversation for the present day title. In FanGraphs' "offense" stat -- which takes into account hitting and baserunning combined -- Acuna was the best in baseball last season, followed by the Dodgers' new trio. There's no reason to expect a big drop-off from any of them, but I'll defer to some of the more seasoned writers on this panel to be more accurate about the lineups of yore.
Schoenfield: I wrote about this in my grade of the Ohtani signing: All three were at least 50 runs better than an average hitter in 2023. If they can do that again, yes, it would be unprecedented in modern history. The only other team since 1900 with three such hitters was the 1929 Yankees with Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Tony Lazzeri. (Those Yankees, by the way, finished 18 games behind the Philadelphia A's.) Even the Braves last season, with the highest slugging percentage in history, had just two hitters at that level -- Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson; their third-best hitter was Marcell Ozuna at plus-28 runs.
Rogers: There are so many great duos in history, but few teams can boast three players at the top of the game in the same lineup at the same time. The Big Red Machine comes to mind, with Joe Morgan, Pete Rose and Johnny Bench leading the way, as do last year's Padres, with Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts. The Dodgers' trio at least matches and perhaps surpasses those trios. After all, the three can boast first-, second- and third-place finishes in MVP voting from just last season. That will play in L.A. for years to come.
Olney: They are in the conversation, for sure -- three future Hall of Famers who will be batting 1-2-3 in the same lineup. I like the comps that Dave and Jesse presented in history, and here's one more: With the Mariners, you had Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez and Edgar Martinez.
Where do the Angels, Blue Jays and other Ohtani suitors go now?
Gonzalez: Two names I'm watching now are Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Cody Bellinger, two high-end free agents whose markets just opened up. The Mets and Yankees, both long shots on Ohtani throughout, are expected to be Yamamoto's main suitors, but he'll have a really strong market as a 25-year-old starting pitcher. The Giants, who were in on Ohtani, are widely predicted to pivot to Bellinger, but a Blue Jays team that desperately needs a left-handed hitter might push for him too. The Angels, meanwhile, vow to keep trying to contend and will spread their money out. They need a top-of-the-rotation starter and more offense.
McDaniel: I'll echo Alden and say that Bellinger and Yamamoto are the two big dominoes who are in play as key players for contenders. Blake Snell's market might be softening, and he might end up coming in below projections later in the process. I've perceived a lot of interest in two more posted players: Shota Imanaga and Jung Hoo Lee. One exec said he thinks both will get at least $80 million plus their posting fees. Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, Josh Hader and the aforementioned group will be the best consolation prizes. There's a chance this outcome changes the Jays' entire offseason strategy: Landing Ohtani could've been the first move in a truly go-for-it winter, but now they might prefer to spread around their money and risk.
Schoenfield: The Blue Jays really wanted a left-handed hitter for the middle of their lineup and have now lost out on Ohtani and Juan Soto. Looks like Cody Bellinger's price just went up. The Jays could still go after one of the other DHs out there -- Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Justin Turner, Joc Pederson -- but only Pederson hits lefty and he's nowhere near the impact hitter that Ohtani or Soto would have been. The Angels? They've insisted Mike Trout isn't going anywhere and they do have money to spend if they want to somehow attempt to contend, but they just lost about 10 wins with Ohtani's departure, and there are other deep-pocketed teams pursuing Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, et al. Good luck.
Rogers: The Blue Jays are desperate for a left-handed hitter to balance their lineup, and there's a clear best option: Cody Bellinger. With Ohtani and Juan Soto off the board, Toronto needs to make a big play for Bellinger or else they're bound to be what they've been for several years: A fine but flawed team that can be exposed in the postseason. The Cubs might circle back to Bellinger as well, as long as the deal is reasonable -- but they haven't signed a Scott Boras client to a major, multiyear deal in at least a decade.
Olney: Part of the reason why the Yankees moved aggressively to trade for Alex Verdugo and Juan Soto is that they found the market so thin in options -- and that is now the abyss that the Jays are staring into. Toronto could go hard on Cody Bellinger, but agent Scott Boras now has all the leverage -- and if the Jays are going to land Bellinger, they almost undoubtedly would have to pay him far more than they ever imagined months ago.
With Ohtani secure on the roster, what should be the Dodgers' next move this offseason?
Gonzalez: They should trade for Dylan Cease, who comes with two years of control and has the type of stuff that can pave the way for the Dodgers to get him back to his Cy Young-contending play of 2022. Then they should sign someone like Lucas Giolito or Marcus Stroman. After that, acquire another corner outfielder to plug into an outfield mix that could use a little more certainty. The real prize, though, would be to just go out and sign Yamamoto. They'd love nothing more -- but it would mean spending $1 billion on two players in one offseason. Unlikely, of course. But if anyone can do that, it's them.
McDaniel: The high-end starting pitchers still available via trade (Corbin Burnes, Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease) or free agency (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell) have to go to the top of the list. There's plenty of young talent in L.A.'s system to make a trade happen, but adding Yamamoto would be the boldest move possible at this point and doesn't seem far-fetched at all.
Schoenfield: Hey, this is a team without an ace right now -- when in the recent past they've had guys like Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias and Max Scherzer to front the rotation. What's another $30 million a year or more for Yamamoto? This is where we remind you: Despite all their massive success over the past decade, the Dodgers haven't won a World Series in a 162-game season in 35 years (no, the COVID title isn't quite the same thing). Yamamoto or bust!
Rogers: Their next three moves should all be for starting pitching or else Ohtani's signing will be a waste. Adding Yoshinobu Yamamoto or trading for Dylan Cease seem reasonable enough. But they can work their way down the ladder as Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga and Mike Clevinger all fit as well. L.A. needs top and middle of the rotation guys. Inventory is important here.
Olney: They need cheap starting pitching desperately, and Cease fits that description perfectly -- he's eligible for salary arbitration this year and next year, at relatively reasonable prices, and he would give the Dodgers the kind of innings volume they really need.