Every season there are rookies outside the top 10 who contribute in a much bigger way than what their draft slots might indicate. Last season, Tyrese Haliburton (No. 12), Isaiah Stewart (No. 16), Saddiq Bey (No. 19), Immanuel Quickley (No. 25) and Desmond Bane (No. 30) headlined the group. Some undervalued players emerge as superstars, like Donovan Mitchell (No. 13 in 2017), Devin Booker (No. 13 in 2015) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (No. 13 in 2013), further proving how inexact a science the draft process can be.
Is there a superstar lurking outside of the top of this year's draft? Here's a look at five players drafted outside the top 10 who could have the biggest rookie impact, along with a few additional players with the tools to emerge as early contributors if playing time opens up.
Alperen Sengun | 6-10 | PF/C | Houston Rockets
Draft pick: No. 16
If his summer league play is any indication, I'd expect Sengun to be one of the most productive rookies in the NBA this season. Sengun has the perfect combination of opportunity and NBA-ready skill to be a dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate. The Turkish big man averaged an impressive 23.3 points, 17.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 4.8 blocks and 2.0 steals per 40 minutes in Vegas while knocking down 38% of his 3s. Although just 19 years old, the 6-foot-10 Sengun has 56 Turkish league games and considerable senior national team experience to lean on as he transitions to the NBA.
Even with the offseason addition of Daniel Theis, the Rockets aren't exactly loaded up with All-Stars up front despite the emergence of Christian Wood. Sengun is a strong offensive fit alongside Wood given his ability to score with aggression, footwork and touch on the interior yet step out and knock down the occasional 3 and create from the perimeter. Still early in the rebuilding process, Sengun's defensive concerns won't be as pronounced. Houston is also in little rush to make a playoff push. Given its new-look front office, there's considerable incentive for the Rockets to prove they got it right with Jalen Green, Usman Garuba, Josh Christopher, and Sengun, which bodes well for his rookie campaign.
Trey Murphy III | 6-8 | SF | New Orleans Pelicans
Draft pick: No. 17
It's no secret that Zion Williamson's superpowers are unlocked when he's surrounded by shooting, giving Murphy a pathway to playing time in New Orleans. The 21-year-old is no stranger to playing an off-ball, 3-and-D style role, as spot-ups made up 55% of his offense. Not only did Murphy shoot 43% from 3 and 93% from the free-throw line last season, but he also shot 44% from the longer NBA 3-point line at summer league. He's also a smart cutter and willing ball-mover, well-versed for a low-usage, high-impact role alongside stars like Williamson and Brandon Ingram.
Willie Green's Pelicans also have little in terms of floor spacing, as New Orleans finished 25th last season in 3-point percentage. Among returning rotation players, only Ingram made more than 2 triples per game (38%), and no Pelican shot over 40% from 3. Enter Murphy, the sweet-shooting jumbo wing whose defensive versatility also gives New Orleans much-needed lineup versatility in a critical year for this young core. Given his college experience and clear-cut NBA skill, I'd expect Murphy to be one of the top-10 rookies to take the floor this season.
Nah'Shon Hyland | 6-2 | PG/SG | Denver Nuggets
Draft pick: No. 26
With Jamal Murray likely out until the All-Star break recovering from ACL surgery, there should be an opportunity for "Bones" Hyland to carve out a role. Coming off a conference player of the year sophomore season at VCU, Hyland looked like a lottery pick for stretches in Las Vegas, scoring 19.8 points in 28.5 minutes while shooting 40% from distance (8.8 attempts per game) and dishing out 4.8 assists per contest.
Even with Hyland's scoring instincts, Nuggets head coach Michael Malone has a history of taking time to warm up to rookies, largely due to a lack of defensive readiness (e.g. Michael Porter Jr.). That's an area the 170-pound Hyland can improve, but he's long and competitive enough to survive in a bench role while giving Nikola Jokic and Porter Jr. a backcourt boost with his deep range and playmaking ability. I'd expect Hyland to come up as a potential lottery pick in re-draft scenarios at the end of the 2021-22 season.
Cam Thomas | 6-4 | SG | Brooklyn Nets
Draft pick: No. 27
Playing time might be the only thing that prevents Thomas from carrying over his historic collegiate production to the NBA. Even so, with James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant hoping to stay fresh during the regular season for a deep playoff run, the 6-foot-4 Thomas should get his fair share of opportunities. The 19-year-old showed how devastating he can be in Vegas, averaging 26.5 points in 28.4 minutes while knocking down 36% of his triples and earning nearly 10 free throws per game.
The reason Thomas wasn't a lottery pick was due to his deficiencies in areas outside of scoring -- namely defense, decision making and passing. Bruce Brown is a perfect example of the type of player that thrives alongside Durant, Irving and Harden, as he carved out a role because of his ability to do everything other than score the ball at a high level. Even with those roadblocks, there's always room for shooting alongside elite shot creators, and it's hard to see a situation where Thomas doesn't outplay his No. 27 draft slot, as he's too talented of a scorer to stay quiet for 82 games.
Leandro Bolmaro | 6-7 | PG/SG | Minnesota Timberwolves
Draft pick: No. 23 (2020 NBA draft)
It remains to be seen if Bolmaro will leave Barcelona to join the Timberwolves next season, but if he does he'll surely outperform his draft slot from 2020. I viewed Bolmaro as a fringe top-10 prospect in 2020 -- ahead of international prospects like Detroit's Killian Hayes -- and see him as an instant contributor on a Timberwolves team in dire need of his defensive energy (Minnesota ranked 28th in defensive rating last season) and offensive playmaking. The 21-year-old Argentinian is a 6-foot-7 combo guard who picks up 94 feet, delivers ambidextrous passes through tight windows and is a capable 3-point shooter after knocking down 44% of his triples in 71 Barcelona games last season.
So long as he's not asked to shoulder the scoring load in the half court, Bolmaro can impact winning on both ends, as I view him as an eventual NBA starter as his game evolves. Bolmaro is an interesting fit alongside a dynamic shot creator like Anthony Edwards, as his court vision and off-ball impact offer a balance between the two. If Bolmaro does come over, don't expect many DNPs, as he's ready to contribute immediately.
Johnson and Johnson: The long-term steals
This exercise often ends up excluding prospects who were underdrafted yet don't have a clear pathway to playing time. With that in mind, I felt it necessary to highlight a pair of prospects who could land somewhere in the lottery when media members re-draft 2021 in a few years.
Jalen Johnson: If Johnson landed in a rebuilding situation with minutes up for grabs, he'd likely headline this list. But the Hawks are deep at the forward spots with De'Andre Hunter, John Collins and Danilo Gallinari. Even if Atlanta wanted to play the 6-foot-9 Johnson at some small-ball 5, he'd have to beat out second-year big man Onyeka Okongwu, who showed promise down the stretch of his rookie campaign. Johnson's 19 and 10 averages in Vegas were no mirage, and the fact that he shot 42% from NBA range bodes well for his future as an eventual starter. Johnson will surely be viewed as a draft-day steal in time. It just might not come during his rookie year.
Keon Johnson: With guards Reggie Jackson, Eric Bledsoe, Terance Mann, and Luke Kennard all ahead of him on the depth chart, I wouldn't expect Johnson to earn any Rookie of the Year votes this upcoming season. The fact that the Clippers snagged a talent like Johnson is larcenous, and he should evolve into a key contributor to a winning franchise thanks to his explosiveness, defensive tenacity and untapped offensive upside. Playing alongside shot creators like Paul George and Kawhi Leonard bodes well for Johnson, who is an excellent cutter, rebounder and straight-line driver who needs time to tune his ballhandling and shot creation. Regardless of what happens in Year 1, Johnson is almost certain to outperform his No. 21 selection in time.
Mike Schmitz is an NBA Draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and International teams.