The 2022-23 NBA trade deadline has passed. And ... wow.
Let's break down the biggest moves as the dust settles on one of the wildest deadline weeks in league history.
Early Thursday morning, the Brooklyn Nets traded Kevin Durant and T.J. Warren to the Phoenix Suns for forwards Cameron Johnson, Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder, four first-round picks and a 2028 pick swap in a blockbuster deal.
On Wednesday night, the Los Angeles Lakers agreed to a deal to land Minnesota's D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt in a trade that also sent Mike Conley and picks to the Timberwolves along with Russell Westbrook and a 2027 first-round pick to the Utah Jazz.
Later Wednesday, the Portland Trail Blazers sent Josh Hart to the New York Knicks for Cam Reddish and a future first-round pick.
This past weekend, the Brooklyn Nets traded All-Star guard Kyrie Irving and Markieff Morris to the Dallas Mavericks for Dorian Finney-Smith, Spencer Dinwiddie and draft picks, sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
The shocking move brings a sudden end to Irving's drama-filled four seasons in Brooklyn, which produced a lone playoff series win alongside Kevin Durant. Meanwhile, the Mavericks land the co-star they've needed next to Luka Doncic since Jalen Brunson's departure via free agency last summer -- but it's at the risk of hampering their ability to make a trade for a more reliable star down the road.
ESPN NBA Insider Kevin Pelton is grading all the biggest trades.
Jump to a deal:
Durant to Suns | Kyrie to Mavs | Lakers deal Russ
Crowder to Bucks | Hart to Knicks | Warriors move Wiseman
FEB. 9 DEALS
Suns acquire Durant in blockbuster with Nets
Suns get: Forward Kevin Durant
Forward T.J. Warren
Nets get: Forward Cameron Johnson
Forward Mikal Bridges
Forward Jae Crowder
Four first-round picks, 2028 pick swap
Phoenix Suns: A
When he was NBA commissioner, David Stern famously told new owners, upon their approval by the NBA's board of governors, "Welcome to the NBA! You're one player away."
In the case of Mat Ishbia, hours removed from completing his purchase of the Phoenix Suns, the joke proved accurate now that we know that one player is Kevin Durant.
Of course, Phoenix would surely have pursued Durant no matter who owned the team. ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Durant wanted to join the Suns, and almost any franchise that had been within striking distance of a championship so recently (leading the 2021 NBA Finals 2-0) would go all-in adding a player still performing at an All-NBA level with four years remaining on his deal.
That said, this particular version of the trade would almost certainly not have happened if not for Ishbia's purchase. Because Phoenix held on to center Deandre Ayton, its second-highest salary after untouchable star Devin Booker, this deal more than doubles its projected luxury tax payment to over $68 million.
Let's talk about the basketball impact. Although the Suns retained Ayton, this deal cost them two quality young forwards as well as the opportunity to add a player by dealing Crowder elsewhere. Bridges is perhaps the definitional 3-and-D archetype, having made 38% of his 3s in his career and finished runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year last season. He was also on a team-friendly rookie extension paying him an average of $22.5 million through 2025-26.
Johnson was president of basketball operations James Jones' best draft pick. Phoenix shocked observers by taking Johnson No. 11 in the 2019 draft after trading down from No. 6. By Year 3, he had developed into a better than 40% 3-point shooter who more than holds his own defensively. Johnson is just wrapping up his rookie contract and will be a restricted free agent this summer.
The upside for the Suns is they've spent much of this season playing without both Johnson, limited to 17 games by surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee, and Crowder, who mutually agreed with the Suns to stay home.
Those absences were a factor in Phoenix sitting fifth in the West standings at 30-26, already eight more losses than all of last season as the top seed at 64-18, but the Suns got credible play from Torrey Craig as a fill-in power forward and have seen Dario Saric play well at both frontcourt spots since the start of January.
Additionally, a sneaky part of this trade is Phoenix bringing back Warren, a Suns draft pick dealt by Jones on the night of the 2019 draft. Signed by Brooklyn for the veterans minimum after missing nearly two full seasons because of a stress fracture of the navicular bone in his left foot, Warren has been quietly solid in limited minutes and will help fill out the Suns' frontcourt rotation.
I'm burying the lede by waiting this long to talk about Durant's impact. With Chris Paul no longer as effective creating his own offense, Durant's addition is a game-changer for a Suns team that has struggled to score with Booker sidelined, dropping to 16th in offensive rating.
When both stars are healthy, Phoenix will have 48 minutes of elite one-on-one creation. And Monty Williams' creative pick-and-roll schemes should ensure the Suns don't stagnate into predictable, alternating isolations late in games as sometimes happened with the Nets. Then again, even if that does happen in Phoenix, the team has added the NBA's best shot-maker to go with two elite ones in Booker and Paul. Nobody is beating the Suns in a one-on-one battle.
In particular, Phoenix looks well equipped to pick apart the Denver Nuggets' defense as it did during a 4-0 sweep in the 2021 conference semifinals. With Jamal Murray sidelined, that Denver team lacked the firepower of the current West leaders, but I'd now make the Suns the favorites to win the conference as long as they stay healthy.
There are still key questions for Phoenix. It remains to be seen whether shifting Paul to a lower-usage role will help his efficiency bounce back after falling from a .581 true shooting percentage in 2021-22 to .557 so far this season. The Suns will also need to find enough touches for Ayton to keep him invested on defense.
Looking ahead, there are risks for Phoenix. The Suns are now invested heavily in a 37-year-old point guard and a 34-year-old forward who has dealt with repeated injuries in his 30s. There's a reason Brooklyn wanted to push the swap rights in this deal as far out as possible, after Paul and likely Durant are potentially done playing in Phoenix.
Nonetheless, if you're going to gamble all tradable first-round picks on a single addition, Durant is undoubtedly the best player gettable. Ayton's stagnant development and Bridges' uneven performance in a higher-usage role this season were indications that the Suns couldn't have it both ways by competing for a championship now and maintaining a contending core for after Paul's inevitable departure.
Now, Ishbia won't have to wait long to find out whether Phoenix was truly one player away.
Brooklyn Nets: B
This wasn't how the Nets wanted the Durant era to end when they signed him and Kyrie Irving to great fanfare in the summer of 2019. It presumably wasn't how Brooklyn wanted it to end as recently as Sunday, when the Irving trade returned primarily present value in Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith rather than focusing on future draft picks.
(The "What if the Nets traded Irving to the Los Angeles Lakers for two first-round picks and Russell Westbrook?" section of the "what if" chapter in the next edition of "The Book of Basketball" is going to be a doozy.)
At some point, Brooklyn surely had to recognize the Durant era was ending and get the best return possible while sending him to a desired destination. That latter factor is key. It would be interesting to know what the Nets could have gotten from the New Orleans Pelicans and Toronto Raptors, teams with higher-upside young prospects and (in New Orleans' case) tantalizing draft picks coming from the Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks.
Still, Brooklyn got a package that combined young talent and draft picks instead of picking between the two. The Nets can't entirely replace their own pair of first-round picks and two swaps sent to the Houston Rockets in the James Harden trade, but they are now well ahead in terms of total first-rounders and control the Suns' draft from 2027 through 2029, when Durant's contract will be up and Booker will be in his 30s.
Bridges and Johnson are young enough to be part of Brooklyn's future, particularly with tanking an unappetizing prospect over the next few seasons. In a fascinating twist, the Nets have gone from three stars to suddenly flushed with more 3-and-D role players than any team in the NBA, albeit without a star to complement -- unless Cam Thomas keeps scoring 40 points per game (can't rule it out).
Given that roster construction, Sean Marks will certainly be busy working the phones until Thursday's deadline. Crowder will certainly be rerouted elsewhere, an easier task now that Brooklyn isn't looking for current value in return like Phoenix was (hopefully, Jones threw in the notes from the Suns' trade calls involving Crowder as part of the deal).
Even discounting Crowder, the Nets simply can't find minutes for all their forwards after adding Bridges, Finney-Smith and Johnson to a group that already included Royce O'Neale, Ben Simmons and Yuta Watanabe. Brooklyn almost has to make trades to thin out those ranks and add a little more size to the roster.
Ultimately, debating whether the Nets got enough for Durant is almost beside the point. It's always better to have Durant, which is why Brooklyn quickly cast aside its prized culture when the opportunity to sign him and Irving presented itself four years ago. The good news is that compared with the last time they started over after trading away multiple first-rounders, the Nets are much better positioned in terms of young talent and outside draft picks.
Warriors send Wiseman to Detroit in four-team deal
Warriors get: Guard/forward Gary Payton II
Pistons get: Center James Wiseman
Hawks get: Forward Saddiq Bey
Trail Blazers get: Forward Kevin Knox
Five second-round picks
Ultimately, the financial incentive for the Warriors to move Wiseman was too strong to overcome the endowment effect associated with keeping the former No. 2 pick in the hopes he would develop into the player Golden State expected.
Swapping Wiseman to bring Payton back to the Bay after a brief sojourn in Portland doesn't save the Warriors all that much this season -- about $8 million in luxury taxes, along with a small decrease in actual salary remaining. The financial benefits are larger in 2023-24, when Wiseman was set to make $12.1 million in the final season of his rookie contract as compared to $8.7 million for Payton.
Exactly how much that will save Golden State depends on which tax bracket the team occupies after dealing with player options for Draymond Green and Donte DiVincenzo, but if Green exercises his option and the Warriors fill out their roster with minimums, the difference would amount to about $26 million under the current tax system.
Beyond that, Payton is likely to offer the defending champion Warriors more help on the court than Wiseman, who had played just 124 minutes since falling out of the rotation in early November. For now, sending out a 7-footer for the 6-foot-3 Payton leaves Golden State even smaller, but Payton can defend bigger opponents such as 6-foot-8 Jayson Tatum (as in last year's NBA Finals) in a way the Warriors' other guards -- including newcomer DiVincenzo, who ostensibly replaced Payton in the rotation -- cannot.
Again, Payton looms larger in 2023-24, when Golden State might not be able to re-sign DiVincenzo, who is all but certain to decline a $4.7 million player option. The most the Warriors could offer DiVincenzo is their taxpayer midlevel exception, projected at $7 million. After a bounce-back season in Golden State, DiVincenzo will surely get bigger offers elsewhere.
The lingering question here is whether the Warriors might have been better off simply keeping Bey, who is younger (23) and a more frequent 3-point shooter (7 attempts per 36 minutes, compared with 2.4), if not necessarily a more accurate one. Making a straight-up deal with Detroit would have saved Golden State far more money.
At the same time, the Warriors already know how well the playoff-tested Payton fits in their system. That would have been a question mark for Bey, who has yet to play in the NBA postseason.
Detroit Pistons: C- 
It almost seemed fated that Wiseman would land with the Pistons at some point. Detroit has become a waystation for former lottery picks, including one of the players (Knox) dealt in this trade. At consecutive trade deadlines, the Pistons have now acquired the No. 2 picks in the 2018 (Marvin Bagley) and 2020 (Wiseman) drafts.
Not coincidentally, Bagley and Wiseman are also most effective as centers, another weakness for Detroit management. The Pistons have started rookie Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, both capable of playing center, together in the frontcourt much of the season with Bagley getting an additional 13 starts at power forward before going down with broken bones in his right hand last month.
Exactly how Dwane Casey is going to find minutes for all these big men once Bagley is healthy remains to be seen. The cramped floor spacing could also be a challenge for Wiseman, whose best moments in Golden State came in spread pick-and-roll settings that highlighted his athleticism as a finisher. Per Second Spectrum tracking, Wiseman pick-and-rolls on which he shot marked as "5-out" produced 1.21 points per play, compared with 1.13 on all other pick-and-rolls.
Because we've seen so little of Wiseman in NBA action (just 1,098 minutes total), all of it on a team that relies as little on the pick-and-roll as any in the league, it's still difficult to evaluate his ability at age 21. Wiseman's lack of progress turning his tools into defensive impact is more of a concern, and while I'm not convinced minutes are necessary for player development, the time Wiseman has missed due to suspension at Memphis and injury in the NBA has undoubtedly compromised his progress.
Ultimately, I would have rather had another year with Bey on his bargain rookie contract (he'll make $4.6 million in 2023-24) than take this gamble on a player at a position of strength.
After the Milwaukee Bucks pioneered the strategy of cobbling together a pile of second-round picks as part of Thursday's earlier deal for Jae Crowder, the Hawks utilized it to land a quality young wing on a great deal. Bey won't turn 24 until April, and even if luxury-tax concerns mean Atlanta can't keep him beyond the expiration of his rookie contract in the summer of 2024, that's still good value for non-premium second rounders.
Surely, part of the reason the Hawks were able to get Bey on the cheap was his middling 3-point shooting the past two seasons. After hitting 42% of his 3s in two years at Villanova and 38% as a rookie in Detroit, Bey has dropped to 34.5% the past two seasons -- slightly worse than league average. Predictably, Bey's overall efficiency has dropped with his 3-point percentage, to the point where he's now below-average in this regard.
Still, I'm willing to bet on Bey's shooting talent. He remains a strong foul shooter (86% this season, 84% career), so the natural ability seems to be there. The Hawks will hope Bey gets better looks playing with Trae Young and Dejounte Murray than he did with the Pistons, where the quantified shot quality of Bey's attempts was worse than average per Second Spectrum analysis based on their location, type and distance to nearby defenders.
Relative to shot quality, Bey's shot making on 3s this season has been similar to Atlanta starter De'Andre Hunter, who's hitting 36% beyond the arc. So merely taking easier shots could get Bey to average from downtown before he benefits from any shot-making regression.
Adding Bey to a wing group that already includes Hunter, Murray, Bogdan Bogdanovic and rookie AJ Griffin gives the Hawks a crowd. It also protects them should any of those players miss time, while Bey, Griffin and Hunter are capable enough of defending bigger opponents that we should see one of them get minutes behind starting power forward John Collins.
Portland Trail Blazers: C+ 
With this deal, the Blazers essentially take a mulligan on signing Payton using their non-taxpayer midlevel exception last summer, getting a handful of second-round picks for their troubles.
Earlier Thursday, I wrote about newly added Matisse Thybulle as a replacement for starting small forward Josh Hart, dealt Wednesday night to the New York Knicks. With this trade it becomes clear Thybulle is really a replacement for Payton, who brings similar defensive playmaking with limited outside shooting.
As much as I appreciate Payton's game, that swap is probably good for Portland. Thybulle is more than four years younger and likely to be cheaper to re-sign this summer as a restricted free agent.
Again, however, the question is whether the Blazers should simply have cut out the Hawks and gotten Bey in return for Payton. Bey's modest 2023-24 salary would be ideal for a Portland team that may not be willing to pay the luxury tax, while he would have offered more size on the perimeter -- addressing a major Blazers weakness.
For now, Portland moves forward with Thybulle and Nassir Little at small forward and Justise Winslow likely to play a key bench role when he returns from a grade 2 ankle sprain that has sidelined him since late December -- just before Payton made his Blazers debut. Re-signing Winslow could become more of a priority because, like Payton, he offers Portland's second unit needed playmaking.
Lakers swap Beverley for Bamba
Lakers get: Center Mo Bamba
Magic get: Guard Patrick Beverley
2024 second-round pick (via Denver)
Cash considerations
In the wake of Wednesday's eight-player trade that landed the Lakers Malik Beasley, D'Angelo Russell and Jarred Vanderbilt, I suggested the possibility of flipping Beverley for a younger player on a longer contract. Bamba could fit the bill.
After enjoying his best season in 2021-22 at age 23, starting 69 of the 71 games he played, Bamba has taken a step back in a crowded Orlando frontcourt this year. He's playing just 17 minutes per night and had been in and out of the rotation recently with Mo Wagner claiming the backup center job behind starter Wendell Carter Jr.
Bamba's skill set remains tantalizing for a 7-footer. He was one of just four players in the NBA last season to average at least 1.5 3s and 1.5 blocks, per Stathead.com -- the others were Jaren Jackson Jr., Kristaps Porzingis and Myles Turner -- yet Bamba's impact on winning hasn't matched his box-score stats. Three-year regularized adjusted plus-minus from NBAshotcharts.com rates him well below average as a contributor.
The structure of Bamba's contract gives the Lakers the rest of this season to assess whether he can be a productive contributor. They have until June 29 to decide whether to guarantee his $10.3 million salary for next season, per ESPN's Bobby Marks. If Bamba works out, the Lakers can keep him under contract. If not, they can walk away without any long-term commitment.
Orlando Magic: B+
Besides Carter and Wagner, the Magic's crowded frontcourt now also includes the return of Jonathan Isaac from injury, No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero and Bol Bol. As a result, any value they could get now for Bamba looks like a win.
The news release from Orlando announcing this move notes Beverley won't be required to report to the team, a sure indicator a buyout is coming soon.
Celtics land floor-spacing big from OKC
Celtics get: Center Mike Muscala
Thunder get: Forward Justin Jackson
2023 second-round pick (via less favorable of Miami and Dallas)
2029 second-round pick (via Boston)
Boston Celtics: B+
Adding a big was an important goal for the Celtics this week. Al Horford hasn't yet played in both ends of back-to-back games this season, while they're understandably also cautious with Robert Williams III after multiple surgeries on his left knee in the past year.
Muscala is a nice fit in that role. He's not so established a player, like Jakob Poeltl, that Boston will feel compelled to give him big minutes every night. Yet Muscala can capably step into the lineup when Horford or Williams is missing, teaming with Blake Griffin and Luke Kornet to give the Celtics enough depth at center.
Like Boston's other options at the 5 besides Williams, Muscala is capable of spacing the floor. He's a career 39% 3-point shooter on impressive volume: 9.4 attempts per 36 in his three-plus seasons in Oklahoma City. He's a bit stouter defensively than Kornet and a better rim protector than Griffin.
Looking ahead, the Celtics will hold a $3.4 million team option for Muscala's services in 2023-24 they seem likely to exercise.
When Muscala originally signed with the Thunder in the summer of 2019, it was ostensibly to play with Paul George and Russell Westbrook. Remarkably, Muscala stuck it out through Oklahoma City's rebuild and is now rewarded with another chance to play for a contender.
I'd imagine teams have inquired about Muscala's services before, but with the Thunder getting ready to turn the corner toward contention and roster spots becoming scarce next season, now was the time for Oklahoma City to move him for draft value.
Clippers bolster bench with Hyland trade
Clippers get: Guard Bones Hyland
Nuggets get: 2024 second-round pick
2025 second-round pick
Denver Nuggets: C+
Taken 26th overall by the Nuggets in 2012, Hyland was immediately productive, earning All-Rookie second-team honors. His development was a big reason Denver was willing to trade reliable backup point guard Monte Morris last summer, handing Hyland the keys to the second unit.
In terms of box-score stats, Hyland's sophomore campaign looks solid, as he has boosted his scoring average two points per game. However, that has come largely because of increased volume, with Hyland's usage escalating from 24% of the Nuggets' plays as a rookie to better than 28% this season. His true shooting percentage has, predictably, dropped while his assists per minute have barely budged.
As a result, Denver coach Michael Malone began putting more trust in Bruce Brown Jr. to run the second-unit offense. Hyland last played for the Nuggets on Jan. 31, seeing five minutes of action before halftime. Denver was outscored by eight in that span and it became clear a trade was near as his DNP-CDs mounted.
Ultimately, the Nuggets apparently couldn't find the bigger wing defender they reportedly sought for Hyland, and settled for taking a couple of second-round picks of questionable value. It's a disappointing end to Hyland's all-too-brief stay in the Mile High City and raises the question, just how eager was Denver was to move on?
Trading Hyland without taking back any salary does cut the Nuggets' tax bill, which could help them add through the buyout market. Another guard would be a plus. Denver also dealt wing Davon Reed to the Los Angeles Lakers to add backup center Thomas Bryant and now has just Brown and little-used Ish Smith as ball handlers behind starting point guard Jamal Murray. Murray continues to miss games as part of back-to-backs due to injury management coming off an ACL tear and sat out Tuesday night because of inflammation in his other knee.
LA Clippers: B+
This is a talent play for the Clippers, who rarely get access to players as promising as Hyland given how many first-round picks and swaps they sent the Oklahoma City Thunder in the Paul George trade. Actually, the Clippers could have taken Hyland in 2021, when they instead picked now-departed Keon Johnson five picks before Hyland went to Denver.
Hyland is an appropriate pickup for the Clippers. His game evokes past high-scoring sixth men Jamal Crawford and Lou Williams, both of whom found homes with the Clippers. They have boasted the Sixth Man of the Year award winner five times -- more than any other team, and all since 2014. (Crawford won it twice with the Clippers, as did Williams, with Montrezl Harrell picking up the other.)
Hyland's fit with the current incarnation of the Clippers, built on switching defenses and isolations for their wings, is a little different. Still, the Clippers can certainly use the juice he will provide an offense that can tend to feel station-to-station at times. Defensively, coach Ty Lue will probably want to pair Hyland with Ivica Zubac as much as possible, since the Clippers don't tend to switch with Zubac and his rim protection will help mitigate Hyland's shortcomings defending the perimeter.
Even if Hyland doesn't play much the rest of the year, as long as he doesn't agitate for another trade, getting him in the system should be a positive for the Clippers. Hyland is still just 22 and under contract for two more seasons at a total of $6.4 million. On one of the league's oldest and most expensive rosters, that's a nice addition.
Crowder routed to Milwaukee in three-team deal
Bucks get: Forward Jae Crowder
Nets get: Rights to guard Juan Pablo Vaulet
2028 second-round pick (via Milwaukee)
2029 second-round pick (via Milwaukee)
Pacers get: Guard George Hill
Forward Jordan Nwora
Center Serge Ibaka
2023 second-round pick (via better of Milwaukee and less favorable of Cleveland and Golden State)
2024 second-round pick (via Milwaukee)
2025 second-round pick (via Indiana)
Milwaukee Bucks: B+ 
The Bucks were a sneaky winner of the Durant trade Wednesday, which took Crowder from the employ of the Phoenix Suns to the Nets for less than 24 hours. Milwaukee's interest in Crowder has been the NBA's worst-kept secret all season, but the Bucks didn't have the kind of win-now help Phoenix wanted in return, so no deal was struck until Crowder went elsewhere.
From the same front office that brought you four second-round picks for Nikola Mirotic at the deadline, Milwaukee upped the ante by sending out five second-rounders for Crowder along with three players largely out of the rotation. The list of picks, as reported by The Athletic, is uninspiring. The Bucks' own second-rounders are either too soon to have much value (with the team near the top of the standings) or too distant to mean much at this point.
So what is Milwaukee getting in Crowder, returning to where he starred at Marquette? The last time we saw Crowder on the court was May 2022, as the top-seeded Suns were getting blown out at home by the Dallas Mavericks in Game 7 of their conference semifinals matchup. There is recent precedent for a player sitting out this long before a deadline trade, one that coincidentally included Crowder.
Back in February 2020, Crowder and Andre Iguodala were the primary players sent from the Memphis Grizzlies to the Miami Heat as part of a three-team trade. With the Grizzlies ostensibly rebuilding at the time, Iguodala never reported to Memphis while awaiting a trade. He had last played the previous June as the Golden State Warriors lost in the NBA Finals.
Like Crowder, who ended up starting as Miami reached the Finals in the bubble, Iguodala made his Heat debut three days after the trade and played 23 minutes in that game. Between that point and the season shutting down due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Iguodala averaged 18.5 MPG. On a per-minute basis, his numbers were similar to his previous regular season with the Warriors, a not-inconsiderable feat at age 36.
Under normal circumstances, Crowder's value tends to fluctuate based on his 3-point shooting. More than 70% of his shot attempts during two seasons in Phoenix came from beyond the arc, so he's sensitive to changes in his 3-point percentage. Crowder hit 39% of his 3s during the 2020-21 regular season and 38% en route to the Finals, but dropped to 35% in 2021-22 and 30% in the 2022 postseason.
Realistically, the Bucks should expect about average accuracy from Crowder -- at 35% overall since 2018-19 -- with enough volume to keep defenders honest. He has taken at least seven 3s per 36 minutes each season in that span.
At the other end, Crowder's value is more consistent. He's a physical defender who uses strength to compensate for being undersized for a power forward at 6-foot-6. Crowder's history as a perimeter defender makes him effective switching on to guards.
In part because of his teams' long playoff runs, Crowder has switched the fifth-most picks of any screener defender in the postseason since 2020, according to Second Spectrum tracking. Although Milwaukee prefers to stay in drop coverages to keep the rim protected, we saw Mike Budenholzer switch more with small lineups en route to the 2021 title. A Crowder-Giannis Antetokounmpo frontcourt will be highly switchable.
After the Bucks staggered through late December and early January, going 5-8 from Dec. 21 through Jan. 14, they seem to have righted the ship with Jrue Holiday over several bouts with illness and Khris Middleton back in a limited role. Milwaukee has won eight in a row, moving within 1.5 games of the Boston Celtics for the top spot in the Eastern Conference just as Jaylen Brown is set to miss time because of a facial fracture.
Assuming the Bucks get the same Crowder we saw in Phoenix, this move only strengthens their position as a top-tier title contender. Kudos also to Milwaukee ownership, which greenlit a version of this trade that added nearly $6 million to the team's tax bill. The Bucks are set to pay more than $75 million in taxes, an incredible investment for a small-market team.
Brooklyn Nets: B
Conversely, much of the value to the Nets in this deal seems to come from shedding tax money. Moving Crowder's salary without taking any players back in return cut nearly $25 million from Brooklyn's bill. The Nets were close enough to the tax line that moving one more medium-sized salary, such as Seth Curry or Royce O'Neale, would have avoided the tax entirely.
That Brooklyn didn't make such a move, standing pat after the Crowder deal, seems to indicate this team still has the goal of making the playoffs. It's a fascinating transitory roster. The Nets have seven players who have been full-time starters when healthy this season (holdovers Nicolas Claxton, O'Neale and Ben Simmons plus newcomers Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith and Cam Johnson) -- a group that doesn't include surging young guard Cam Thomas.
How Jacque Vaughn will distribute playing time among this deep group remains to be seen, but I'm fascinated to watch Brooklyn play. The Nets now have a highly switchable lineup with no starter shorter than the 6-foot-5 Dinwiddie and the mobile Claxton in the middle. In the right matchup, Brooklyn could still be a tough postseason out.
Indiana Pacers: B+ 
It's interesting that the Pacers, who entered the deadline with $10.7 million in cap space as compared to nearly $25 million for the San Antonio Spurs, were the team that ended up utilizing it Thursday. The explanation for why San Antonio didn't make this trade is simple: It required waiving multiple players to fit in all three newcomers from Milwaukee.
To clear the necessary roster spots, Indiana waived center Goga Bitadze, who had played sparingly in the final season of his rookie contract, as well as forwards James Johnson and Terry Taylor.
Ibaka, who had been away from the Bucks awaiting a trade, will likely be waived after its completion. Whether Hill negotiates a buyout or sticks with the Pacers for a second stint as a veteran mentor will be worth monitoring. Nwora is the lone sure keeper, a 24-year-old forward under contract for 2023-24 at $3.2 million. The high-scoring Nwora can help an undersized Indiana forward group with his size.
Clippers get Gordon in three-team guard shuffle
Clippers get: Guard Eric Gordon
2024 second-round pick (via Toronto)
2024 second-round pick (via more favorable of Indiana and less favorable of Cleveland and Utah)
2027 second-round pick (via Memphis)
Grizzlies get: Guard Luke Kennard
Rockets get: Guard Danny Green
Guard John Wall
2023 swap rights (via Bucks for worse of Clippers or Thunder)
LA Clippers: C
Gordon, who began his career as a Clippers lottery pick, comes full-circle more than 11 years after being sent to New Orleans as part of the return in the Chris Paul trade.
At this stage of his career, Gordon is no longer the high-flying shot creator he once was, but there's room for him in this Clippers lineup. A stout 6-foot-3, Gordon held up well in switch-heavy Houston defenses during the Mike D'Antoni era and can fill a similar role defensively in Los Angeles, making him an upgrade at that end of the court over Kennard.
Despite Gordon's reputation as a shooter, the Clippers are probably taking a step back in that regard. Gordon's 41% on 3s during the 2021-22 season was the only time since joining the Rockets he has made better than 36%. Volume is more the name of Gordon's long-range game; he attempted around 10 3s per 36 minutes in his Houston heyday before that rate declined with his usage over the past two seasons.
With the Clippers, Gordon should find easier attempts. According to Second Spectrum tracking, Gordon's quantified shot quality (qSQ) on 3s this season ranked in the bottom quartile of players with at least 50 attempts based on their location, type and the distance to nearby defenders. Kennard's weren't dramatically easier, but that's largely because he fired so many coming off screens, something the Clippers probably won't ask Gordon to do as often.
Looking ahead, the Clippers losing one of their younger rotation players (Kennard is 26) for another vet in his 30s (Gordon is 34) ages the roster. It will also be interesting to see how the Clippers handle Gordon's 2023-24 salary, which is non-guaranteed through June 28 unless they win the championship, per ESPN's Bobby Marks.
With the Clippers headed into the repeater tax next year, walking away from Gordon's $20.9 million salary would produce enormous savings. However, that hasn't been their preferred approach under Steve Ballmer, and the Clippers may end up spinning Gordon's contract forward by trading him for a player on a longer deal next year.
The Grizzlies ended up making a similar move with Green, acquired as matching salary in the De'Anthony Melton trade that netted them a first-round pick last June. Despite Green returning to the court ahead of reasonable expectations from an ACL tear suffered last May, Memphis moved on in favor of a contract that better matches up with the team's books.
The $4 million or so in salary the Grizzlies added this season by swapping Green for Kennard, pending incentives, won't really affect anything because Memphis is still miles from the luxury tax. And even with a max extension kicking in for Ja Morant next season, the Grizzlies should still have enough room to make a competitive offer to unrestricted free agent Dillon Brooks without pushing into the tax.
Come 2024-25, when Memphis will also have to handle a rookie extension for Desmond Bane, Kennard has a $15.4 million team option that gives the Grizzlies plenty of time to figure out whether he fits.
On the court, Kennard supplies the shooting that was clearly Memphis' biggest need. He led the NBA in 3-point shooting at 45% last season and has hit an almost identical percentage each of the past three seasons.
Defensively, Memphis will need to find a way to prevent opponents from targeting Kennard in the postseason. That might be easier in a more conventional defense than one like the Clippers predicated on switching everything on the wing. The Clippers did manage to keep Kennard on the court for nearly 15 MPG in their run to the 2021 Western Conference finals, and that much contribution from him would strengthen the Grizzlies' bench at the cost of only second-round picks.
As reported by the Los Angeles Times, those picks include a couple with moderate upside in 2024.
Gordon seemed out of place with the youthful Rockets. The last remaining link to Houston's D'Antoni-era teams, Gordon appeared to be losing patience with the mistakes of his younger teammates and the losses that resulted. This deal gets him to what was surely a desired destination.
Beyond that, the Rockets should be able to move up several spots in this year's first round via the swap with the Clippers, which will come after a potential Clippers-Thunder swap. Houston can then send Milwaukee's first-rounder -- No. 28 overall if the season ended today -- for that pick, which would be the Clippers' own No. 18 spot as things stand.
Based on my trade value chart for draft picks, moving up from 28th to 18th is equivalent to the value of the 30th overall pick, so the Rockets did well despite not adding any picks.
This trade sends Wall back to Houston, where he sat out last season awaiting a buyout, in name only. The Rockets will waive him a second time in the span of six months. Whether Green will stick around is unclear. He'd certainly be coveted on the market if he agreed to a buyout instead of filling Gordon's role of veteran mentor.
Clippers get Plumlee, much-needed help at center
Clippers get: Center Mason Plumlee
Hornets get: Guard Reggie Jackson
2028 second-round pick
LA Clippers: A-
After losing Isaiah Hartenstein to the New York Knicks in free agency, the Clippers hoped to cobble together a center rotation behind starter Ivica Zubac between small-ball lineups with Robert Covington in the middle and two-way players Moses Brown and Moussa Diabate. None of those options has been particularly effective.
Covington, shooting a career-low 33% on 3s, has been in and out of the rotation. Brown has been productive in limited minutes but has to be spotted carefully to avoid putting him in situations that expose his slow feet. And Diabate has spent most of his season in the G League.
Come the postseason, playing Marcus Morris Sr. at center might be Lue's solution. The Clippers have been strong with Morris in the middle, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass lineup data. Yet Lue understandably doesn't want Morris to play against bigger opposing 5s on a nightly basis during the regular season.
Enter Plumlee, quietly enjoying perhaps his best NBA season. His 15.4 points per 36 minutes is a career high, as is his 67% shooting from the field. After beginning to shoot free throws left-handed last season, Plumlee -- previously a right-handed shooter -- has begun branching out with a surprisingly accurate lefty set shot from outside the paint.
Given the number of teams hunting for backup center help, I'm surprised Plumlee cost only a second-round pick in addition to guard Reggie Jackson, who had fallen out of favor with Terance Mann taking over at the point. Having added Bones Hyland in a separate trade Thursday, and with a roster spot now open for a buyout candidate like Russell Westbrook or perhaps old friend Patrick Beverley, the Clippers found Jackson expendable.
Because Jackson's $11.2 million salary is more than Plumlee's $9.1 million, this deal actually saved the Clippers money, helping them make room to add Hyland without substantially increasing their league-leading luxury-tax bill.
Despite Plumlee's strong play, the lottery-bound Hornets had incentive to move him to make room for their center duo of the future: Nick Richards and 2022 first-round pick Mark Williams, who have both been productive in their playing time as well.
Jackson is not a fit in Charlotte and looks headed for a buyout.
Nuggets deal for Lakers' Thomas Bryant
Nuggets get: Center Thomas Bryant
Lakers get: Guard Davon Reed
2025, 2026 and 2029 second-round picks
Denver Nuggets: B+
Having already traded three future first-rounders to build the team that leads the West by 4.5 games heading into the trade deadline, the Nuggets can't keep up with the blockbuster moves elsewhere in the conference. But Denver did have a few second-round picks available to address the team's biggest need: backing up two-time MVP Nikola Jokic at center.
So far this season, the Nuggets have been outscored by 10.2 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the bench according to NBA Advanced Stats data. That's actually worse than last season (minus-7.8) despite the return of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to play minutes with second units.
To some extent, it probably doesn't matter who is behind Jokic for Denver. His style of play is so singular that it can't be replaced by any backup, but Bryant looks like an upgrade on the players the Nuggets have tried there so far. DeAndre Jordan has predictably performed at a below-replacement level for a center this season. So too has Zeke Nnaji, who provides more defensive versatility but is largely a nonfactor on offense.
Enter Bryant, who has performed at the best level of his career while playing for the veterans minimum in L.A. Bryant offers similar above-the-rim finishing to Jordan's (he has 70 dunks this season, per Stathead.com data, good for 20th in the NBA and in fewer minutes than anyone ahead of him on the list) while bringing some stretch to the 5 spot.
Although Bryant is taking 3s less frequently than during his time with the Washington Wizards, he's hitting them at a career-best 44% clip, having previously cleared 40% in 2019-20 before struggling last season coming back from an ACL injury. Add the dunks and the 3s and Bryant has been the NBA's most efficient scorer among qualified players, leading the NBA with a .712 true shooting percentage.
Despite his size and athleticism, Bryant has always been a below-average rim protector. Fortunately, Denver's defensive system isn't built around that kind of play.
We'll see whether Bryant will play enough in the postseason to swing a game or series. Even if he simply helps the Nuggets be more competitive when Jokic misses time in the regular season -- he has sat out five times in the past month, with Denver going 2-3 in those games -- that's probably enough to justify this trade.
Lakers fans are surely bummed about this trade. Bryant, originally drafted by the Lakers in 2017 and jettisoned after one season to help clear cap space to sign LeBron James, had been the team's best success story in two years of signing veterans for the minimum. Bryant's production as a starting center helped keep the Lakers afloat with Anthony Davis sidelined for an extended period.
In a way, Bryant had almost played too well for the Lakers to re-sign him using non-Bird rights, a form of Bird rights that limits teams to paying 120% of a player's previous salary without dipping into another exception. That might not be enough for Bryant, who could have an above-minimum market this summer.
With the addition of Jarred Vanderbilt, the Lakers now have enough size to get by in the frontcourt without Bryant as long as Davis is healthy. And if Davis misses another extended stretch, the Lakers' season is probably over. So the Lakers rebuilding their stockpile of second-round picks, tapped into to add Rui Hachimura, makes sense.
Technically, the Lakers aren't guaranteed any picks in this trade, as the second-rounders they're acquiring go elsewhere if the Nuggets don't send first-round picks due to their protections. However, the 2025 and 2026 picks are contingent on Denver not giving up a first-round pick that's lottery-protected this season, which would require a historic collapse.
New Orleans upgrades at guard
Pelicans get: Guard Josh Richardson
Spurs get: Guard Devonte' Graham
2024 second-round pick (via New Orleans)
2026 second-round pick (via worse of New Orleans and Portland)
2028 second-round pick (via New Orleans)
2029 second-round picks (via New Orleans)
For the Pelicans, this move is more about shedding Graham's 2023-24 salary. He was set to make $12.1 million, an amount that would have pushed New Orleans into the luxury tax, so moving him for an expiring contract made financial sense.
The Pelicans can also expect they've upgraded the position the rest of this season. The 6-foot-5 Richardson, in the final season of his contract, brings far more size than the 6-1 Graham. New Orleans' backcourt got perilously undersized when Graham played with 6-foot Jose Alvarado in the second unit.
Although the Spurs are still sitting on $26 million in cap space, which they can't use in trade until after the season, they did utilize some of their projected $40-plus million in 2023-24 cap room to make this deal.
Because he's capable of supplying ballhandling, Graham could actually help San Antonio, which has lacked a true point guard behind starter Tre Jones this season. Just getting the young Spurs into their offense would be a positive from Graham.
Suns shed salary, deal Saric to OKC
Suns get: Forward Darius Bazley
Thunder get: Forward Dario Saric
Future second-round pick
Phoenix Suns: B
The financial element of this trade was a considerable motivating factor for the Suns, especially in the wake of adding salary in the Kevin Durant deal. Swapping Saric's $9.2 million salary for Bazley's $4.2 million saves them about $19 million in luxury-tax payments.
The timing of this deal is tough for Saric, who had recently seemed to round the corner following his ACL tear in the 2021 NBA Finals, which sidelined him all of last season. Since Jan. 4, Saric had averaged 16.2 points, 9.9 rebounds and 4.2 assists per 36 minutes while hitting 46% of his 3-point attempts.
Nonetheless, Saric was an expensive luxury for Phoenix after adding Durant. The interesting question is whether the Suns think Bazley can help them on the court. At 6-foot-8, he's the kind of versatile, long-limbed forward defender Phoenix doesn't really have elsewhere on the roster. And after making just 30.5% of his 3-point attempts his first three NBA seasons, Bazley has hit 40% on his 45 attempts this year.
Despite those attributes, Bazley lost the starting job he held most of the last two seasons as the Thunder pivoted to smaller lineups, and he had played just 555 minutes to date -- odds are he'll be out of the Suns' rotation when it counts.
Oklahoma City Thunder: B
With Bazley in and out of the rotation and headed toward restricted free agency this summer, the time was right to move on. Saric, meanwhile, could help Oklahoma City's play-in push with his veteran savvy in the frontcourt if the Thunder decide to keep him. If not, Oklahoma City will move forward with a draft pick and cash to help cover the difference in the two players' salaries the rest of the season.
Thybulle to Blazers in 3-team deal
Trail Blazers get:
Forward Matisse Thybulle
76ers get:
Forward Jalen McDaniels
2024 second-round pick (via New York)
2029 second-round pick (via Portland)
Hornets get:
Guard Svi Mykhailiuk
2023 second-round pick (via most favorable of Atlanta, Brooklyn and Charlotte)
2027 second-round pick (via most favorable of New Orleans and Portland)
The Sixers managed to accomplish a pair of important goals in this trade: ducking the tax and adding more shooting to their second unit.
More than nearly any team, Philly is dependent on shooting to space the floor for Joel Embiid. That made Thybulle a tricky fit despite his obvious defensive talent (he was an All-Defensive second-team pick each of the past two seasons, including in 2020-21 despite averaging just 20 MPG off the bench). With more wing depth this season, Thybulle has seen his role crater to a career-low 12.1 MPG.
Since Thybulle was coming up on restricted free agency this summer, dealing him now to get under the tax line was a logical outcome. The 76ers found a way to do that while saving enough money to sign a buyout candidate -- and potentially upgrading the spot.
McDaniels was a particularly valuable trade candidate at the deadline because of his $1.9 million salary in the final season of a four-year, minimum deal signed ahead of his rookie season as a late second-round pick with limited leverage. McDaniels has since developed into a key rotation player, with a career-high 26.7 MPG as a part-time starter this season.
Granted, McDaniels won't be confused with Stephen Curry any time soon. He's making just 32% of his 3s this year after hitting 38% in 2021-22 and is at 34% career. Still, his accuracy and his volume of attempts (4.9 per 36 minutes) are better than those of Thybulle, a career 32.5% 3-point shooter despite taking only wide-open looks. Per Second Spectrum's quantified shot quality metric (qSQ), Thybulle's 3-point diet this season was third-easiest among players with at least 50 attempts based on location, type and distance to nearby defenders.
Additionally, McDaniels' free throw shooting (78% career, 85% this season) suggests more natural shooting potential than Thybulle (67%).
Although not the defensive threat Thybulle is, McDaniels could have playoff utility in matchups where Philadelphia needs length more than the strength provided by defensive specialists Danuel House Jr. and P.J. Tucker.
An unrestricted free agent this summer, McDaniels will likely command a sizable raise from his current contract. No longer limited by the hard cap incurred this year by using the biannual and non-taxpayer midlevel exceptions, the Sixers should be able to pay to keep him around.
On paper, Philadelphia trading one second-round pick in this deal and getting two back looks like another win. In reality, the pick the 76ers are sending out is easily the most meaningful of the four involved in this trade and the seconds they're getting back probably the least valuable of the group.
Consider this part two of the Blazers' deadline plan, which started Wednesday night by dealing Josh Hart to the New York Knicks for a protected first-round pick. That move created enough room under the tax line, as well as a trade exception, for Portland to take on Thybulle's contract.
As players, Hart and Thybulle are probably more similar than their reputations would suggest, particularly with Hart's reluctance to shoot 3s this season. (He has attempted fewer per 36 minutes and has made them at a worse clip than Thybulle so far.) Thybulle is almost precisely two years younger and is likely to have a weaker market as a restricted free agent this summer than Hart will unrestricted.
Add in the Blazers converting a couple of distant second-round picks into what could be a first-rounder in the late teens this season and this looks like a strong piece of business for the Portland front office.
There are still questions about how Thybulle fits offensively, but given that the Blazers entered the trade deadline 26th in defensive rating, adding Thybulle should help.
For the Hornets, the primary motivation here was getting back what will most likely be their own second-round pick. Charlotte dealt it to Atlanta to acquire Devonte' Graham on draft night in 2018, and a series of swaps sent it to Philadelphia as the most favorable of three second-round picks.
Since the Hornets are all but certain to finish with a bottom-four record this season, that second-rounder became a valuable commodity, enough to persuade Charlotte to give up a chance to re-sign McDaniels using full Bird rights this summer.
Because the Hornets will almost certainly use cap space, taking advantage of McDaniels' minimum cap hold to spend that money and then go over the cap to re-sign him would have been a good outcome. As a result, it's imperative that Charlotte make good use of its pick the second time around.
Hawks shed salary in trade with Rockets
Hawks get: Guard Garrison Mathews
Center Bruno Fernando
Rockets get: Forward Justin Holiday
Forward Frank Kaminsky
2024 second-round pick (via Oklahoma City)
2025 second-round pick (via Oklahoma City)
Of all 16 trades completed in the 24 hours leading up to the deadline, this one figures to have the least basketball impact. Adding Saddiq Bey in a separate transaction Thursday would have pushed the Hawks into the luxury tax, so they needed this move to shed payroll. It also gives them wiggle room under the tax line in case Clint Capela and Dejounte Murray achieve unlikely incentives in their contracts.
A starter as recently as last season in both Indiana and Sacramento, Holiday couldn't make shots in Atlanta, slumping to 38% from the field and 34.5% from 3. As a result, he quickly fell out of coach Nate McMillan's rotation and had played just 11 minutes in all of April, making him an obvious trade candidate. Kaminsky, who played 176 minutes for the Hawks, had little additional impact.
Although Bey's arrival gives Atlanta plenty of wing depth, the Hawks should feel comfortable playing Mathews in a pinch. "Garry Bird," as nicknamed by the Houston broadcast team, is an above-average 3-point shooter (36.6% career on typically difficult attempts) whose willingness to take charges is an asset defensively.
Fernando returns to the team that drafted him 34th overall in 2019. As long as Capela and Onyeka Okongwu are healthy, we won't likely see much of him, but Fernando too can contribute in a pinch.
Because the Rockets are miles away from the luxury-tax line, taking on additional salary in this trade did not affect their financial outlook at all. It seems unlikely either Holiday or Kaminsky will stick in Houston, leaving the Rockets with the second-round picks coming from the Thunder down the road.
MORE DEADLINE DEALS
Feb. 8: Raptors get center Poeltl in trade with Spurs
Raptors get: Center Jakob Poeltl
Spurs get: Center Khem Birch
Protected 2024 first-round draft pick
Two future second-round picks
Toronto Raptors: B+
Cue Skylar Grey: Poeltl is coming home. Drafted No. 9 overall by the Raptors out of Utah, Poeltl developed into a starter after being sent to San Antonio as part of the Kawhi Leonard trade before his second NBA season. In particular, Poeltl has excelled at protecting the rim, adding a dimension Toronto's undersized lineups have lacked.
Rim protection was more of a Poeltl strength the previous two seasons. In 2020-21, opponents made just 50% of their attempts within 5 feet when Poeltl was the defender on record, per Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats. Among players who defended at least four such shots per game, that was fourth-lowest in the league, just behind Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert.
Last season, that mark was 54%, good for 11th among the same group according to Second Spectrum. Playing in front of a porous group of perimeter defenders this season with the loss of Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, Poeltl hasn't been nearly as effective. Opponents are hitting 62% of attempts within 5 feet, a mark only slightly better than that of new teammate Scottie Barnes.
Surely, the Raptors are betting Poeltl's rim protection will revert to form with better defenders around him. If so, he can help a Toronto defense that has dropped to 17th on a per-possession basis after finishing ninth in 2021-22. The Raptors could also benefit the rest of the way from regression to the mean.
Second Spectrum's quantified shot probability measure suggests the looks opponents are getting aren't much different from last season when considering their location, type, distance to nearby defenders and the ability of the shooter. Yet Toronto has gone from 18th to 29th in opponent effective field goal percentage (eFG%).
With the Raptors 10th in the East at 26-30 and still considering dealing some of their incumbent starters before Thursday afternoon's trade deadline, the Poeltl trade can't just be about this season. Toronto inherits Poeltl's full Bird rights, and ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the Raptors' intention is to re-sign him this summer.
At 27, Poeltl is squarely in the middle of his prime. He has also made strides offensively the past two seasons, pushing his usage rate into the high teens after it languished in the low teens previously in his career. Although Poeltl has virtually no range (his 53% career foul shooting could be an issue if he ever played a key role on a playoff team), he has developed a nice touch finishing off pick-and-rolls when a dribble or two is required.
After dealing a first-round pick for Poeltl, the Raptors do have to avoid falling into the Bird rights trap of overpaying him because he can't be replaced with an equivalent talent in free agency. But part of the value for Toronto of this trade -- likely the extra second-rounders -- is to clear Birch's $7 million 2023-24 salary from the books, creating more spending power next summer.
San Antonio Spurs: B+
The same relative youth that made Poeltl an attractive trade candidate also meant the Spurs could have simply re-signed him this summer amid a rebuild. Clearly, his presence wasn't enough to keep San Antonio (the league's third-worst team at 14-41 with the worst point differential in the NBA at minus-10.1 PPG) from accumulating pingpong balls.
Still, the Spurs were probably wise to grab value for Poeltl while they could. Like every other team near the bottom of the standings, San Antonio is hoping to land the No. 1 pick and draft center Victor Wembanyama this June. Additionally, there's no guarantee Poeltl would have re-signed as an unrestricted free agent.
Despite taking back Birch's contract, the Spurs actually increased their cap space with this trade after using some of it to complete Tuesday's trade for Dewayne Dedmon. San Antonio now has $25 million in remaining cap room. With Russell Westbrook landing in Utah, it's unlikely the Spurs can use all of it before the deadline, but they'll give it their best shot in the remaining hours.
Feb. 8: Blazers send Josh Hart to the Knicks
Knicks get: Guard/forward Josh Hart
Trail Blazers get:
Guards Ryan Arcidiacono
Svi Mykhailiuk
Guard/forward Cam Reddish
2023 first-round pick (via New York, top-14 protected, converts to four second-round picks)
New York Knicks: B-
With coach Tom Thibodeau deciding he has no interest in playing Reddish (who hadn't seen action since Dec. 3) and little more in playing Evan Fournier (who's played in three games since Jan. 9), the Knicks' wing rotation was troublingly thin behind starters RJ Barrett and Quentin Grimes and reserve Immanuel Quickley.
Enter Hart, whose appeal to Thibodeau is obvious. Few players in the NBA get more out of their talent than Hart, whose hustle, stamina and strength allow him to play up defensively. At 6-foot-5, he's started all season for Portland at small forward while occasionally logging minutes at the 4. From that standpoint, Thibodeau is sure to value his contributions more than he has Fournier and Reddish.
That size and strength could be particularly useful to New York's second units, which tend to get troublingly small. Instead of Fournier, Thibodeau has taken to using 6-3 Quickley and 6-2 Miles McBride together off the bench. Barring another move before the deadline, this trade probably signals that more of Quickley's minutes will come at point guard with McBride out of the rotation.
In particular, Hart's superior rebounding for his size -- his 8.8 rebounds per 36 minutes was second on the Blazers behind starting center Jusuf Nurkic -- could help address a weakness for the Knicks. They're 21st overall in defensive rebound rate at 71% after finishing fourth a year ago and drop further to 68% with Grimes on the bench.
That said, if Hart is simply wing depth, potentially giving up a first-round pick for an impending free agent would be a lot. To make cutting into the minutes of (presumably) Grimes and Quickley make sense, Hart will have to be more dangerous shooting the ball than he had been with the Blazers.
Hart's reluctance to shoot 3s this season has been surprising. Although Hart has never been a particularly accurate long-range shooter (35% career), he attempted at least 3.9 per game starting in 2018-19, his second NBA campaign. During 13 games in Portland after last year's deadline trade from the New Orleans Pelicans, that shot up to 6.4 a night.
Unexpectedly, Hart's 3-point attempts have dropped to a career-low 2.2 per game this season. His decline of 1.9 attempts per 36 minutes is sixth largest among players who have played at least 1,000 minutes each of the past two seasons.
At some point, that lack of confidence started translating into worse results. After hitting 35% of his 3s through the end of December, Hart is 11-of-47 (23%) since. His recent accuracy issues and his reticence to fire from 3 have caused defenses to pay Hart less attention on the perimeter, with that lack of gravity gumming things up a bit more for the Blazers' attack.
The contract Hart signed with New Orleans as a restricted free agent in the 2020 offseason contains an unusual final season. If Hart exercises a $13.0 million player option, his salary is non-guaranteed through June 25 per ESPN's Bobby Marks. That seems to all but assure Hart will test free agency.
Assuming the Knicks decline Derrick Rose's $15.6 million team option, they'll be somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million below the luxury-tax line, plenty of room to re-sign Hart this summer -- though perhaps at the expense of using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception.
The structure of the first-round pick New York sent out in the trade protects the team from giving up a lottery pick. If the Knicks miss the playoffs this year, they'll send four second-round picks to the Blazers instead. Before the trade, FiveThirtyEight's model gave New York a 68% chance of reaching the playoffs and sending away the pick, while ESPN's Basketball Power Index had the Knicks in the playoffs 84% of the time. After incorporating the trade, BPI simulations boosted New York's playoff odds to 94%.
Portland Trail Blazers: B+
Part of the Blazers' unspoken task this season was to play well enough to persuade ownership to pay the luxury tax to re-sign Hart, assuming he declined his player option, and fellow starting forward Jerami Grant.
With Grant averaging 21 PPG and making a career-high 41% of his 3-pointers, Portland has to prepare to give him a significant raise over this season's $21 million salary, meaning a new deal for Hart would likely take them into the tax.
As the Blazers hover around .500 and currently sit outside the play-in spots in the Western Conference, they couldn't justify paying the tax, making a Hart trade all but inevitable before the deadline. Likely getting a first-round pick is a good outcome, particularly because Portland will also get a free look at Reddish the rest of the season.
Remember, it was less than 13 months ago that the Knicks gave up a first-round pick to get Reddish, then in the third season of his four-year rookie contract. Thibodeau apparently wasn't part of that decision. Reddish has logged just 653 minutes since then, causing his trade value to crater.
Despite the occasional big effort, including a 26-point outburst in November against Oklahoma City, Reddish's game has always looked better on a scouting report than on the court. He could be a shooter but has hit just 32% of his 3s. He has the physical tools, including more size than Hart at 6-8, to be a strong defender. That skill set hasn't translated consistently either, though.
Those issues noted, Reddish is actually younger than a player drafted last June (Atlanta Hawks wing Tyrese Martin), so there's still time for him to put it all together. With minutes available and a need for more size on the perimeter, the Blazers will surely give him the opportunity he never found in New York.
Because the Knicks had to include two minimum-salary players (Ryan Arcidiacono and Svi Mykhailiuk) to match salary, Portland will have to either waive or trade a player under full NBA contract to complete this deal. There's no obvious candidate, so a deal might be the best solution.
Lakers move Russell Westbrook in three-team deal
Adrian Wojnarowski lays out how the Rui Hachimura trade to the Lakers came to be.
Lakers get: Guards Malik Beasley
D'Angelo Russell
forward/center Jarred Vanderbilt
Timberwolves get: Guards Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Mike Conley
2024 second-round pick (via lower of Memphis and Washington)
2025 and 2026 second-round picks (via Utah)
Jazz get: Guard Russell Westbrook
forward Juan Toscano-Anderson
center Damian Jones
2027 first-round pick (via Lakers, top-four protected)
Los Angeles Lakers: B
There's simple math to explain when it comes to how this trade helps the Lakers. Westbrook had averaged 28.7 minutes per game off the bench for them this season. Russell was averaging 32.9 MPG for the Timberwolves as their starting point guard, while Beasley (26.8) and Vanderbilt (24.1) were both key rotation players for the Jazz.
Combined, the three newcomers have played 56 minutes a night more than Westbrook. That's up to 56 minutes the Lakers have been giving mostly to players making the veterans minimum, the price they've paid for swapping two starters (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Kyle Kuzma) and a third rotation player (Montrezl Harrell) to the Washington Wizards for Westbrook in the summer of 2021.
The timing of this trade just as the Lakers get as healthy as they've been all season means coach Darvin Ham is going to have the happy problem of figuring out whom not to play among a whopping 12 players averaging at least 20 minutes thus far. None of the three players the Lakers are adding is a star. As long as Anthony Davis and LeBron James are healthy, they don't necessarily need another star. After prioritizing shot creation in a series of transactions dating back to trading Danny Green and a first-round pick for Dennis Schroder and culminating with the ill-fated Westbrook deal, the Lakers finally focused more on the shooting needed to support AD and LeBron on offense.
In particular, Beasley is a dramatic shooting upgrade because of his high-volume attempts. Since being traded to Minnesota three years ago at the deadline, Beasley has never averaged fewer than eight 3-point attempts per game. As a result, although Beasley's accuracy on 3s (38% career, down to 36% this season) is more good than great, his volume is hard to top. From the start of the 2021-22 season to now, just two players (Stephen Curry and Buddy Hield) have made more 3s than Beasley's 409.
Remarkably, only one player previously on the Lakers has made even half as many 3s during that span: LeBron himself, with 258. Russell (294) also tops that total. We know how dangerous a formula James plus shooting has been historically, and the Lakers are much closer to that ideal with Beasley and Russell.
Russell's recent role change makes him a better fit in L.A. He has taken a step back in the Minnesota offense despite the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns much of the season due to injury. Russell's 23% usage rate would be the lowest mark in his career, and although he still led the Timberwolves in time of possession overall (5.6 minutes per game, according to Second Spectrum tracking on NBA Advanced Stats), Anthony Edwards has moved a hair ahead of him since the calendar turned to 2023.
With Edwards taking on more of the shot-creation load, Russell has been finding easier opportunities to score. Just 60% of his shot attempts this season have come after more than two seconds with the ball, per analysis of data from NBA Advanced Stats, down from 70%-plus in his first two full seasons in Minnesota. In turn, Russell's 57% effective field goal percentage on those self-created shots is the first time in his career he has surpassed 50% on them.
Overall, Russell is quietly enjoying far and away the most efficient offensive season of his career. His .604 true shooting percentage would blow away his previous career high of .556, during 2019-20. Looking at shot-quality data from Second Spectrum confirms Russell's shot diet this season has been the easiest of his career.
So although some regression should be expected -- his shot-making is also the best he has ever enjoyed -- there's reason to believe Russell is morphing into the sort of role player who could share ballhandling duties with LeBron but also be dangerous playing off the ball.
It will be interesting to see how Ham uses Vanderbilt, who has started 108 of the 126 games he has played the past two seasons but might be the Lakers' fourth big man at full strength. Vanderbilt has added a modicum of stretch to his game this year, hitting 19 3-pointers at a 33% clip, so he can probably play with any of the Lakers' other post players and offers a better switching option at center than Thomas Bryant.
Perhaps Vanderbilt's greatest value to the Lakers is a modest salary: He carries a $4.4 million cap hit this season, and they inherit a $4.7 million team option for 2023-24, when Beasley also has a reasonable team option ($16.5 million).
Compared with other possible permutations of a Lakers-Jazz trade, including ones with Bojan Bogdanovic last summer, this seems less likely to lift L.A. into contention this season. The Lakers will still probably have to make their playoff run through the play-in tournament, without the benefit of home-court advantage in any round.
Additionally, as much as Beasley and Russell upgrade the Lakers' shooting, playing them together with two big men and LeBron would force James into handling difficult defensive assignments on the perimeter. Ham will probably want to stagger their minutes as much as possible to keep one of his better defenders alongside them.
Lastly, the Lakers haven't really reduced their dependence on Davis staying healthy for the postseason. Adding Hachimura and Vanderbilt means they won't be nearly as small without Davis when he misses time, but asking them and Bryant to anchor the frontcourt against playoff competition is unrealistic.
The upside of this construction, however, is that the Lakers look better going forward. None of the three players they've added is older than 26 (Russell turns 27 later this month), meaning they're in their prime rather than losing value over time like Bogdanovic and Conley. The Lakers retain their 2029 first-round pick to use in a trade down the road, and -- after potentially swapping with the New Orleans Pelicans -- they'll be able to trade this year's first-rounder as soon as it's made.
By contrast to pathways that saw the Lakers either trade everything for a third star (like Kyrie Irving) or save their cap space to sign a player for $30-plus million this summer, splitting Westbrook's $47 million salary three ways gives the Lakers more tradable contracts down the road. Depending on ownership's willingness to spend next season, when the Lakers will be subject to the more punitive repeater tax, they could enhance their flexibility by flipping Patrick Beverley for a younger player in a separate trade.
The biggest pitfall for the Lakers is the same thing the Timberwolves avoided with this trade: falling into the Bird rights trap of overpaying Russell because they can't replace his production in free agency. A Russell contract too big to trade without needing to include draft compensation to take it on would leave the Lakers back in a similar spot as they were in with Westbrook.
For now, the Lakers turning Westbrook's salary into three contributors who can be part of their future without giving up both tradable first-round picks makes this a positive step after too many moves backward.
Minnesota Timberwolves: B-
If the Timberwolves were going to move on from Russell in favor of a more experienced hand at point guard, Conley was an obvious fit for basketball and financial reasons. Let's start on the court.
Despite Russell's step back, the Timberwolves still faced the problem of how to distribute possessions when Towns returned to the lineup. Remember, Russell and Edwards have been the lone starters with above-average usage rates in Towns' absence. All three other typical starters -- Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels and Towns fill-in Kyle Anderson have finished fewer than 16% of the team's plays while on the court this season.
Towns' return will change that equation and make Conley's pass-first style a better match. This season has seen Conley's gradual evolution from dangerous scorer in his Memphis heyday to setup point guard intensify. Conley's 16% usage rate is the lowest of his NBA career, down substantially from last year's above-average 21% usage. At the same time, Conley's 9.3 assists per 36 minutes is far better than his previous career high (7.3 during 2020-21, his lone All-Star season).
Finding chemistry midseason with the rest of the roster might take some time, but Conley already has plenty of it with Gobert. Adding a better pick-and-roll distributor should help Gobert, whose scoring per 36 minutes is down 1.8 points from last year.
This season, Gobert's screens have yielded just 0.95 points per chance when the shot has come directly from the pick-and-roll, per Second Spectrum tracking -- worse than the league average of 0.98 points per chance. During 2021-22, Gobert screening for Conley produced 1.01 points per chance. According to Second Spectrum data, only Trae Young and Clint Capela ran more pick-and-rolls as a duo.
Financially, Conley's $24.4 million salary for 2023-24 gives Minnesota certainty as compared to rolling the dice with Russell in free agency and more flexibility than adding Kyle Lowry, who will make $29.7 million next season.
With Conley on the books, the Timberwolves enter the offseason $17 million below the projected luxury tax line. Waiving forward Taurean Prince, whose $7.65 million salary is non-guaranteed through June 28 per ESPN's Bobby Marks, would increase that to about $24 million -- likely enough for Minnesota to both re-sign unrestricted free agent Naz Reid and use the non-taxpayer midlevel exception while avoiding the tax. (As a result, teams hoping to add Reid at the deadline look like losers of this move.)
In the long run, the outlook is less rosy. Conley's contract expires just as Edwards will begin what's certain to be a max rookie extension, which could escalate if he makes an All-NBA team next season. Compared with a new Russell contract that could have pushed the Wolves deep into the tax in 2024-25, that's a cheaper option. But Minnesota needs to figure out a point guard of the future since 35-year-old Conley is merely a short-term solution.
Edwards emerging as a lead ball handler looks like the best outcome for the Timberwolves. Even that would leave Minnesota needing to find another starter on the wing without a lot of options for doing so besides internal development. As a result, although swapping Russell for Conley makes sense in the short term, a team with a young star sending out a player in his prime for one in his mid-30s is hardly reason to cheer.
Utah Jazz: A-
Although the Jazz's perspective is most straightforward here -- a team that's rebuilding, despite its surprising success this season, traded three veterans for a large expiring contract and a draft pick in a move that improves its lottery odds -- there are a couple of interesting decisions to unpack.
First, the Jazz were willing to include the Timberwolves in this deal despite having four of their upcoming first-round picks and a swap, starting this June. Presumably, Minnesota feels this trade makes it better this season, hurting a draft pick that belongs to Utah. But the Jazz's long view likely holds that swapping young for old will hurt the Timberwolves down the road, improving the future picks they hold.
Second, and related, was Danny Ainge's apparent eagerness to land a lightly protected (top-4) pick from the Lakers, taking one shot at a midlottery pick rather than trading Beasley, Conley and Vanderbilt separately, which presumably could have yielded a low-end first-rounder or two in addition to some second-rounders in the next couple of drafts. Instead, rebuilding Utah is improbably the team trading away second-round picks to make this deal happen.
Given how many picks Utah already has coming from the Gobert and Donovan Mitchell trades, that high-upside approach makes sense to me, rather than stockpiling increasing numbers of first-rounders.
Nobody would ever compare Ainge's style as a decision-maker to that of former Philadelphia 76ers executive Sam Hinkie. Like Hinkie, however, Ainge has repeatedly shown himself to have the longest view in the room to his teams' benefit.
Besides the pick, the other benefit of this trade for the Jazz is increasing their 2023 cap space. Taking back just one player (Jones) with 2023-24 salary gives Utah $30-plus million in cap space this summer. Extending or re-signing Jordan Clarkson, who is likely to decline his $14.3 million player option, would cut into that. Still, the Jazz should have plenty of room to add salary in exchange for even more draft picks.
As for Westbrook, it's hard to imagine he'll be asked to report to Salt Lake City. A buyout of Westbrook's contract makes sense for both sides, allowing Utah to recoup the salary added in this trade and Westbrook to pick his destination as a free agent.
Feb. 7: Nets trade Kessler Edwards to Kings
Kings get: Forward Kessler Edwards, cash considerations
Nets get: TBD
Brooklyn Nets: B+
After starting 23 games as a rookie and earning a full NBA contract (he started out on a two-way deal as a second-round pick), Edwards got lost behind the Nets' newfound wing depth this season, a problem only exacerbated by the arrival of Dorian Finney-Smith in the Kyrie Irving trade. As it was, Edwards had played just 79 minutes all season.
That small role made a money-saving trade involving Edwards almost inevitable. As reported by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, this move reduces Brooklyn's luxury tax bill by nearly $8 million. Filling the open spot on the Nets' roster, possibly with a buyout candidate, would eat into that savings but still cut Brooklyn's tax payment as compared to keeping Edwards.
For the Nets to accomplish that without dipping into their stockpile of second-round picks is a good outcome for them.
Sacramento Kings: B+
By contrast, making this move for cash considerations suggests the Kings have some interest in Edwards. They've got a clear need for a defensive upgrade on the wing, a role they've filled at times with KZ Okpala. Edwards is a far better shooter, having hit 35% of his 3s as a rookie as compared to 29% over his career for Okpala.
Wojnarowski further reported that Sacramento intends to give Edwards a chance to play with the team's G League affiliate in Stockton, so the Kings might still be on the hunt for wing help before Thursday's trade deadline. Because the Kings are $15 million below the tax line, even if they end up needing the roster spot and simply waiving Edwards, it won't affect their decision-making the rest of the week at all.
If Edwards sticks, Sacramento gets a free look at him for the rest of the season before deciding on his $1.9 million team option for 2023-24.
The Kings will have to send something in return, most likely either a top-55 protected second-round pick or the rights to former draft picks playing overseas.
Heat trading Dewayne Dedmon to Spurs
Spurs get:
Center Dewayne Dedmon
Second-round pick
Heat get:
Cash considerations
Miami Heat: B+
The most interesting part of this deal is the Heat's willingness to trade Dedmon two days before the deadline, suggesting they didn't see a larger deal materializing with his expiring $4.7 million salary included. (Dedmon has a $4.3 million salary for 2023-24, but it isn't guaranteed until late June.)
To some extent, Miami probably viewed trading Dedmon as part of the reason to re-sign him last summer. But Dedmon's salary alone wasn't quite enough to bring back, say, Jae Crowder, and a deal sending him and 2022 first-round pick Nikola Jovic for a player making more money would have pushed the Heat into the luxury tax.
Instead, if Miami makes a move, it will most likely involve starting point guard Kyle Lowry, who hasn't enjoyed the bounce-back season the team hoped for at age 36 (he'll turn 37 next month). Over the eight games he played between returning to the lineup Jan. 18 and sitting out because of left knee soreness that will sideline him through the deadline, Lowry has seen fourth-quarter action just twice, as coach Erik Spoelstra has opted to finish games with either Victor Oladipo or Gabe Vincent in his place.
Moving Dedmon gives the Heat more flexibility bringing back salary in a Lowry trade. Before, Miami stood just $163,000 below the luxury tax line, which will likely act as a hard cap for the Heat and other teams near the tax.
Although actual tax payments would be minimal, going into the tax would mean they miss out on the distribution from taxpaying teams, currently estimated at $17 million by ESPN's Bobby Marks. (That could decline slightly by Thursday as taxpaying teams offload salary before the deadline.)
If no bigger trade materializes, Miami still moves a player who was clearly unhappy with his role. Dedmon's frustration came to a head in January, when he was suspended a game by the team after swatting a massage gun and sending it flying on to the court during play.
Adrian Wojnarowski breaks down how the Suns were able to pull off trading for NBA superstar Kevin Durant.
Creating more room below the tax line enables the Heat to promote Orlando Robinson from a two-way contract, allowing them to fill his two-way spot. And Miami has enough flexibility now to also utilize the remaining $3.6 million of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception to offer a buyout candidate more than the minimum salary. The Heat had used only the taxpayer portion of the exception last summer to avoid hard-capping themselves in case they did go into the luxury tax.
At the cost of a distant second-round pick, that move was well worth it.
San Antonio Spurs: B
For the Spurs, completing this move now was important because it allows them to repeat the process before Thursday's trade deadline. San Antonio, which had nearly $27 million in cap space to utilize, can waive Dedmon after the trade is finalized and use the open roster spot to add another player and continue collecting draft picks. As Marks noted on Twitter, the money the Spurs will pay Dedmon the rest of the season would have been paid anyway because San Antonio is the lone team currently below the salary floor -- by nearly $15 million. Any amount below the floor will be distributed among current Spurs players. To complete this trade, San Antonio had to send something to the Heat. The NBA requires a minimum of at least $110,000 by league rules if cash considerations are the return.
Feb. 5: Nets trading star guard Kyrie Irving to Mavericks
Nets get:
Dorian Finney-Smith
Spencer Dinwiddie
2029 first-round pick
2027 & 2029 second-round picks
Mavericks get:
Brooklyn Nets: B+
The 48-hour turnaround from Irving's trade request being reported to a trade being consummated seems to reflect a couple of key things from the Nets: They were ready to move on from Irving and they found the kind of market they wanted.
A lot of the analysis in the immediate aftermath of Irving's request suggested Brooklyn should call his bluff, as happened last summer when he agitated for a sign-and-trade before exercising his player option to remain with the Nets. Maybe that would have happened if the market was softer, but I think Brooklyn was right to take seriously Irving's reported threat to sit out if not traded. ESPN's Bobby Marks pointed out that actually holding out would have jeopardized Irving's ability to become a free agent, but he could have said he was unable to play because of injury.
In the best-case scenario, keeping Irving past the trade deadline would merely have been kicking the can down the road. Since Irving's return following a team suspension for his repeated failure to "unequivocally say he has no antisemitic beliefs" (and a public apology), things had gone as well as possible on the court. That still resulted in Irving's midseason trade request.
The other difference from last summer is more teams could realistically deal for Irving. Dallas was in that group. Well into the luxury tax, the Mavericks would have had a difficult time consummating a legal sign-and-trade for Irving. Now, Dallas could offer a point guard (Dinwiddie) in addition to a valuable role player (Finney-Smith) and a first-round pick. By contrast, for a trade with the Los Angeles Lakers to yield Irving's replacement, it would have surely required at least one more team (and maybe two, depending on that team's willingness to take back Russell Westbrook's contract).
The first key to this trade for the Nets is what percentage of Irving's production Dinwiddie can replace at a lower salary and with less uncertainty. Quietly, Dinwiddie has had a strong season opposite Doncic, rebuilding his value by hitting a career-high 40.5% of his 3-point attempts.
By swapping Dinwiddie for Irving, Brooklyn is taking a step back in terms of shot creation. When placed in the role of lead playmaker, Dinwiddie has been more of a volume scorer. We saw that with the Nets in 2019-20, when they played most of the season without Durant and Irving. Dinwiddie averaged 22.2 PPG and 7.3 APG in the 44 games Irving missed, but his .470 effective field goal percentage in those games (treating 3s as 1.5 field goals to reflect their added value) was lower than any full season of his career.
With Dinwiddie at point guard, Brooklyn will become even more dependent on Durant for late-game scoring. But Dinwiddie can at least add a scoring punch when Durant is on the bench, a need the Nets had to fill. Brooklyn lineups with neither Durant nor Irving had ranked in the second percentile in terms of offensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass data.
Continuing a trend dating back to the James Harden trade a year ago, the Nets have also improved their depth by trading one rotation player for two. (Morris had been on the fringes of the rotation recently but played just 285 minutes all season.) Finney-Smith gives Brooklyn another capable two-way role player on a reasonable contract paying him an average of $14.4 million through 2025-26.
Now, Nets coach Jacque Vaughn could conceivably finish games with a lineup of Dinwiddie, Durant, Finney-Smith, center Nic Claxton and wing Royce O'Neale. That's a switchable group with no player shorter than 6-foot-4 and puts three 3-point threats around Durant and Claxton. Notably, it doesn't include Ben Simmons, whose difficulty making free throws makes him tough to play in crunch time.
Add in an unprotected first-round pick timed for after Doncic can become an unrestricted free agent, and this seems like a strong return for Brooklyn, given the circumstances. Of course, only one person's opinion about this trade really matters: Durant's. Whether he believes this supporting cast can help him win a championship with the Nets is the most important piece of this equation.
The other possible key is whether Brooklyn will make another trade by Thursday's deadline. The Nets now have two first-round picks to offer in a trade: the one from Dallas plus one from Philadelphia in either 2027 or 2028. The Nets are overloaded with wings and could stand to swap one of their shooters for another big man. Alternatively, they could try to get in on the bidding if the Toronto Raptors decide to move Fred VanVleet.
If this is Brooklyn's biggest move, it limits the team's ceiling this season in exchange for far more certainty going forward.
Let's start with the obvious but unhelpful part of the analysis: Yes, the Mavericks would have been better off simply re-signing the younger Jalen Brunson for the max -- if that's what it took to retain him last summer -- than giving up a first-round pick and a key contributor for Irving. That opportunity is gone, making it irrelevant to how the franchise moves forward.
Without Brunson, Dallas became dangerously dependent on Luka magic. Thanks to Doncic playing the most minutes per game (36.5) and sporting the highest usage rate (38.5%) of his career, the Mavericks were 28-19 in games Luka played through Thursday's win over the New Orleans Pelicans -- which saw Dallas, up 27 when he left the game with a heel contusion, hang on for a five-point win.
Saturday's Doncic-less loss to the Golden State Warriors dropped the Mavericks to 0-7 when he doesn't play, the biggest reason the Mavericks sit just a half-game out of the play-in tournament a season after reaching the Western Conference finals. Irving will undoubtedly help there, and we have ample evidence of how good he can be playing alongside another ball-dominant star.
That formula won the Cleveland Cavaliers the 2016 title, after all, and was working well for the Nets as recently as last month before Durant's MCL sprain. So does adding Irving make Dallas a title contender? I'm still skeptical. Defense is the big difference between the Mavericks and the teams that have contended with Irving and another star.
For all the fretting about the load on Luka and performance without him, Dallas' offense has actually been better than last season, ranking in the top 10. Defensively, however, the Mavericks have tumbled from seventh in Jason Kidd's first year as coach to 24th.
Adding Irving and subtracting Finney-Smith surely won't help there, though Dallas can expect better interior defense when Maxi Kleber returns from a hamstring tear that has sidelined him since mid-December.
By trading Finney-Smith, Dallas is presumably betting on Josh Green emerging as a starter. The 22-year-old from Australia, much maligned his first two seasons for not being as quick to develop as the older wings drafted after him (Saddiq Bey and Desmond Bane), has taken a step forward in Year 3. Green is making 41% of his 3s, albeit on low volume (3.7 attempts per 36 minutes) and has shown the ability to defend bigger opponents at 6-5.
Keeping Green out of this trade was the biggest win. The Mavericks also managed to maintain a couple of tradable first-round picks. Assuming this year's selection goes to the New York Knicks to complete the ill-fated Kristaps Porzingis deal (it's top-10 protected), Dallas can still deal 2025 and 2027 first-rounders this summer.
Still, the Mavericks have foregone the possibility of being able to offer a full draft to another team down the road, and given up their most tradable role player in Finney-Smith. As a result, this looks like Dallas' biggest post-Porzingis swing on trading for a star. The Mavericks will have to count on Irving staying on the court and producing.
How Dallas structures Irving's next contract will be fascinating to watch. Assuming Irving did not waive his trade bonus associated with this deal, he'll be eligible for a two-year extension with a maximum 5% raise each season over his current salary. Alternatively, Irving could play out the season and re-sign with the Mavericks this summer with no such restrictions.
In all likelihood, Dallas will push for a contract no longer than three years. The Mavericks have pointed toward 2025 as an opportunity to add a star via free agency before the final season that Doncic is under contract (2026-27, the last year of Doncic's rookie extension, is a player option he's certain to decline if he doesn't sign a supermax extension before then).
If the two sides can find a new contract that meets both of their goals, Dallas could certainly win this trade. The Mavericks gave up a single first-rounder and role players for one of the league's best players when he's on the court. Although I don't think Dallas becomes an immediate title contender, the Mavericks will have time and some flexibility to reshape the roster around Doncic and Irving in future seasons. With due respect to Brunson, Irving immediately becomes the best teammate Luka has had.
Given the ticking clock on Doncic's free agency, I understand the urgency for Dallas to take a risk in order to win now. However, based on Irving's track record of becoming unhappy with his team at inopportune moments, I wouldn't risk my superstar player's prime betting on him.
Jan. 23: Lakers agree to deal for Wizards' Rui Hachimura
Lakers get:
Rui Hachimura
Wizards get:
Guard Kendrick Nunn
2023 Chicago second-round pick
2028 second-round pick (lesser of own and Lakers')
2029 Lakers second-round pick
Finally, the Lakers have made a trade, although it's not the blockbuster we've been discussing since at least the 2022 trade deadline. Instead, the Lakers are making use of their stockpile of second-round picks to add a player they hope will be part of their long-term future.
Four seasons into his NBA career, the idea of Hachimura's game has been better than the results. At 6-foot-8, Hachimura is skilled for his size, but his late start with high-level basketball (a native of Japan, Hachimura did not come to the United States before arriving for a redshirt season at Gonzaga, where he played two years) has limited his effectiveness.
In particular, Hachimura hasn't filled out the box score as well as you'd like. Per 36 minutes, he's averaged just 1.1 combined steals and blocks this season, putting him 309th among the 369 players with at least 250 minutes. Hachimura is also a below-average defensive rebounder and playmaker for a combo forward, leaving him highly dependent on scoring to create value (13 PPG).
Shooting will be the swing skill for Hachimura going forward. He made 45% of his 3s in 43 games during 2021-22, the only season to date in which Hachimura's true shooting percentage has been better than league average. That's dropped back to 34% this season, a bit below his career mark of 36%.
On the plus side, Hachimura won't turn 25 until next month, so there may be further development ahead. His size will be a plus on a Lakers team that gets small when LeBron James is out of the game and while Anthony Davis is out with a right foot injury. James had been the Lakers' only player capable of playing small forward taller than 6-foot-6.
The most interesting aspect of this deal is Hachimura's next contract. His $15.6 million cap hold as a restricted free agent this summer would swallow up nearly half of the Lakers' projected $30 million-plus in cap space. The Lakers could reduce that if they sign Hachimura to a deal that starts at a lower value, but as long as he's re-signed using Bird rights, the Lakers are almost assuredly out of the bidding for a top-tier free agent.
In turn, that could affect the Lakers' decision-making before the trade deadline. If they're not using their full cap space, the Lakers might be better off staying over the cap and retaining Bird rights on Russell Westbrook as well as potentially accessing the non-taxpayer midlevel exception, projected at $11.4 million.
Staying over the cap would give the Lakers a better chance of building quality depth than spending all their cap space on a single player and having only the smaller room midlevel (projected at $5.9 million) to offer additional players appreciably more than the minimum. Using cap space to make the Westbrook trade is part of how the Lakers' depth got so precarious in the first place, after all.
If that's the direction the Lakers plan to go, it could make sense to deal 34-year-old guard Patrick Beverley, who's in the final season of his contract. The Lakers could target a younger player who's either under contract for 2023-24 or they intend to re-sign to a long-term deal like Hachimura.
To their credit, the Lakers made a deal that increases their 2022-23 payroll in pursuit of a playoff spot. Per ESPN's Bobby Marks, this deal adds a little more than $3 million to the Lakers' tax bill. Perhaps the Lakers can get more from Hachimura than the Wizards did and make him a long-term contributor. Still, for that money and the second-round picks, I would have targeted a player with more proven production.
Certainly, this wasn't the outcome Washington was hoping for with Hachimura, the team's highest draft pick since 2013 when he was taken No. 9 overall in 2019. With little progress to show from Hachimura's first three-plus NBA seasons and his free agency looming, cashing out was probably the right play.
The bigger question for the Wizards is whether they're done dealing. After all, Hachimura wasn't the team's most important impending free agent at forward. That's former Laker Kyle Kuzma, who has outplayed his possible extension value (four years, $70 million, per Marks) and will almost certainly decline a $13 million player option for 2023-24 in favor of testing free agency.
Making a move that slightly reduces team salary (Nunn makes $5.25 million this season, about $1 million less than Hachimura) gives Washington more wiggle room in constructing future trades without going into the luxury tax, a non-starter for a team two spots out of the play-in tournament. The Wizards now stand $1.4 million below the tax line.
Washington also gets an interesting second-round pick in this year's draft. The 2028 and 2029 picks are so far out as to be of little value at the moment, but Chicago's second-rounder would land 39th if the season ended today, a spot where the Wizards could find a quality prospect.
As for Nunn, there might not be a spot for him in Washington's crowded backcourt at full strength, but he's quietly played decently in January (10.5 PPG on .572 true shooting percentage) after a dreadful start to the season coming off missing all of 2021-22 because of a bone bruise in his right knee. Nunn is in the last year of his contract, meaning this trade won't affect the Wizards' books going forward.