December is right around the corner, which means so is whatever target date injured Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers has in mind for his miracle return from his September Achilles injury. We still don't know whether such a thing is possible or if it will come to pass, but we're getting close to the time when we might find out.
Thing is, there are a few issues. Leaving aside all of the uncertainty about whether Rodgers physically can return, Sunday's demolition of the Jets by the Bills calls into question whether there's actually going to be any reason for him to come back this season. The loss, in which the Jets finally saw enough from Zach Wilson and benched him for Tim Boyle, dropped New York's record to 4-6 -- three games behind first-place Miami in the division and two behind the Steelers, who currently hold the final AFC wild-card spot.
So let's open our NFL Week 11 overreactions column -- in which we judge some of the biggest potential takeaways off the slate of games -- with Rodgers and the Jets.
Jump to:
No reason for Rodgers to return?
Hot seat heating up for Staley?
Browns can still make the playoffs?
Bengals can't make the playoffs?
NFC West race is already over?
Rodgers won't return this season ... because the Jets will be out of the race
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Jets were noncompetitive Sunday against the same team they came back to beat in Week 1 after Rodgers left with a torn Achilles tendon. They have had some fun, and they have had weeks that made you wonder if maybe they could defense their way into contention. But they've now lost three in a row -- to the Chargers, Raiders and Bills -- and it's time to get real.
For one thing, the Jets' upcoming schedule is not easy. Their next four games are against the Dolphins, Falcons, Texans and Dolphins again. Atlanta is the only one of those teams that doesn't have a winning record right now. Even if the Jets get through that stretch at 2-2 (which feels generous), they're looking at 6-8 with three games left on the season. More likely it's 5-9 or 4-10.
So even if Rodgers can come back at that point, there would have to be a conversation about whether it's worth it. Rushing the soon-to-be 40-year-old franchise quarterback back from an injury that has always taken much longer to recover from could put Rodgers at risk of further serious injury and maybe even jeopardize the start of next season for him. And assuming Rodgers wants to come back next season, a Jets team that's apparently planning an offseason pursuit of receiver Davante Adams has a lot of reasons to make sure he's as healthy as possible when the 2024 season begins.
Unless the Jets do something wild like beat Miami next week, it's starting to look like the season might be lost before Rodgers can make his miracle comeback.
The Chargers' Brandon Staley will be the next coach fired this season
The Chargers lost in Green Bay 23-20 on Sunday. It was their second straight three-point loss and their fifth defeat this season by three points or less. Going back to 2020, the year before the Chargers hired Staley, they have now lost 14 games that were decided by three or fewer points. That's the most such losses in the NFL over that span, per ESPN Stats & Information.
The Chargers are in every game they play; they just lose more of them than they win. This season, at least. Staley finished with winning records in each of his first two seasons as the Chargers' coach, and at 4-6 through Week 11, there's no reason to think he can't do that again in 2023. But coming up just short is part of the Chargers' DNA these days, right? They just missed the playoffs on the final day of the 2021 regular season. They blew a 27-point lead in last season's playoffs and lost to the Jaguars. And here they are this season, with a loaded roster and one of the best young quarterbacks in the league, and they're losing close game after close game.
Losing like that is the kind of thing, fair or unfair, that gets blamed on the coach. After disappointing ends to each of his first two seasons, and as the close losses mount throughout 2023, it's fair to wonder if Staley's seat is getting hotter.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Staley could be in trouble if the Chargers miss the playoffs this season, but they haven't done that yet, and as long as they still have a chance, I expect Chargers ownership to ride it out with him and see if he can get them there. I could be wrong but that's the sense I get.
Plus, Staley isn't the only coach I could have written this kind of blurb about coming off Sunday's games. Ron Rivera's Commanders lost to the Giants for the second time this season -- this time getting lit up by third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito. Frank Reich's Panthers got smoked by the Cowboys to fall to 1-9, while No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young continues to struggle for Carolina and No. 2 selection C.J. Stroud keeps crushing it in Houston (though he did throw three interceptions Sunday).
Washington and Carolina are certainly two spots we're watching for potential coaching changes at the end of this season, but personally I wouldn't be shocked if the timetable on at least one of those got accelerated more quickly than Staley's situation. In Carolina's case, at least, you can't make the argument that they're still in the playoff hunt. Sunday's loss ensured a losing record.
The Browns' defense is still good enough to get them into the playoffs
Cleveland was one of two AFC North teams to lose its starting quarterback for the rest of the season this past week. Deshaun Watson needs shoulder surgery and won't be back until 2024.
Yet in the wake of that news, the Browns' dominant defense went out and throttled the Steelers, as Cleveland won 13-10 with a field goal in the final seconds. It wasn't pretty, and it's clear rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson has a lot of learning on the job to do, but the Browns are 7-3 and just a half-game behind first-place Baltimore in the division.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The quarterback attrition has jumbled the AFC playoff picture to the point where you might not need 10 or 11 wins to get in. Even as a wild card right now, the Browns would occupy the No. 5 seed and travel to Miami in the first round.
A victory over Pittsburgh isn't exactly the best evidence to support this, but the Browns' defense is legitimately awesome. They're allowing just 243.3 yards per game. That's the lowest such average by a team through 10 games since the 2008 Steelers (238.1), who went on to win the Super Bowl. Now, those Steelers had Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback and not Thompson-Robinson, and I understand the difference. But the question wasn't whether the Browns' defense was good enough to win them the Super Bowl.
Considering everything that's going on with the AFC field at the moment, I say this defense is good enough to at least get them into the playoffs.
The Bengals are finished without Joe Burrow
Week 11 started with a major bummer of a game Thursday night. The Ravens beat the Bengals to drop them to .500, but it will be better remembered for season-ending injuries to Ravens tight end Mark Andrews (ankle) and Bengals quarterback Burrow (wrist).
Cincinnati is only a game behind Pittsburgh for the final AFC wild-card spot. But the Bengals are also 0-3 in division games and 1-5 in conference games, and therefore in bad shape in terms of tiebreakers even if they can catch some of the teams in front of them. We haven't seen Jake Browning with a full week to prepare as the starting quarterback, but we're about to see it a whole bunch. And that's an unsettling feeling for Bengals fans who are accustomed to the magic of Burrow.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
The Bengals still have road trips to Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Kansas City and home games against the Steelers, Colts, Browns and Vikings. Not one of their remaining games is against a team that currently has a losing record. They're used to overcoming things, but they're used to doing that behind Burrow, who's not coming back until next season.
If the Bengals had reached this point with the same record as Cleveland, I'd say sure, they can scrape out three or four more wins and grab a decent playoff seed ... then who knows. But they're not 7-3. They're 5-5. And getting to nine or 10 wins feels like a tough assignment without their leader and heart-and-soul quarterback. Even if they did scrape together enough to snag the No. 6 or No. 7 seed, how far do we think they could conceivably advance?
This had felt like it might be the Bengals' year, but starting with Burrow's camp-opening calf injury and continuing through Thursday night's deflating debacle, that has turned out to be very much not the case.
The NFC West race is over, and the 49ers have won it
I'm old enough to remember when the 49ers were on a three-game losing streak and looked like they might never remember how to win a game again. Then they had their bye, and in the two games they've played since then, they've beaten the Jaguars and Buccaneers by the combined score of 61-17. And they have their eyes more on the NFC's top seed than the other NFC West teams behind them.
After thumping the Bucs on Sunday, the Niners got to sit back and watch the second-place Seahawks blow a lead against the Rams, dropping Seattle a game behind San Francisco in the division race. The Seahawks were in first place after Week 8, but since then they have been walloped in Baltimore, squeaked out a close one against Washington and lost a heartbreaker to their nemesis from L.A. (The Rams are 2-0 against the Seahawks this season and 2-6 against everyone else.)
Verdict: OVERREACTION*
This gets an asterisk because it could be over four days from now. The Seahawks host the 49ers on Thursday in the Thanksgiving nightcap. And based on the way the past three weeks have gone, that suddenly feels like an extremely important game for Seattle.
After Thursday, Seattle's next three contests are at Dallas, at San Francisco and home against the Eagles. That's a brutal stretch by any measure, and if the Seahawks can't beat the Niners on Thursday night and go into it tied for first place, they could absolutely be out of the division race by Christmas Eve. And if that happens, they'll look back on Sunday as a crippling missed opportunity.