Cy Young Award Projections

Projection System

About the Cy Young Award Projections:

These Cy Young Award Projections utilize a simple model created by Tangotiger. The original Cy Young Points model predicts the top two vote getters with high accuracy through 2020. The FIP Adjusted model may be a better predictor of more recent voting behavior. (The report is limited to pitchers with at least 50 projected IP.)

Cy Young Points (CYP): IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W
FIP Adjusted Cy Young Points (FIP CYP): (IP/2 - ER) + (IP/2 - FIP Runs) + SO/10 + W

Data Export [Members Only]

American League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	116.0	10	3	30.8%	4.6%	2.41	2.57	3.4	3.8	51.0	75.9	186.0	15	7	30.0%	5.0%	2.66	2.72	5.3	5.6	75.1	112.0
2	Garrett Crochet	107.0	6	6	35.2%	5.4%	3.03	2.36	3.9	3.2	38.5	64.0	164.0	10	9	34.3%	6.3%	3.02	2.56	5.4	4.7	59.5	94.8
3	Corbin Burnes	118.1	9	4	23.3%	5.3%	2.44	3.36	2.6	3.9	47.1	62.0	199.1	14	8	24.1%	5.8%	2.89	3.40	4.3	5.3	69.0	93.3
4	Tanner Houck	117.0	8	6	23.5%	5.5%	2.54	2.67	3.4	3.3	44.7	68.4	182.0	12	10	23.2%	6.1%	3.07	2.98	4.6	4.4	58.5	89.2
5	Logan Gilbert	132.0	6	5	24.8%	5.0%	2.79	3.37	2.6	3.9	43.5	60.0	209.0	11	9	24.4%	5.3%	3.06	3.49	3.8	5.2	64.5	88.0
6	George Kirby	117.1	7	7	24.7%	2.8%	3.30	2.81	3.3	2.6	34.2	56.2	192.1	12	11	24.1%	3.1%	3.32	3.04	4.9	3.9	55.8	87.1
7	Seth Lugo	127.0	11	4	22.6%	5.8%	2.48	3.31	2.8	4.7	51.1	67.9	196.0	15	8	22.0%	6.1%	3.03	3.50	3.8	5.7	64.7	86.4
8	Cole Ragans	116.1	6	6	29.6%	8.0%	3.18	2.66	3.5	3.4	37.2	60.9	183.1	10	10	28.4%	8.3%	3.34	2.98	4.7	4.8	55.1	86.1
9	Luis Castillo	117.0	8	9	24.2%	7.1%	3.54	3.77	1.9	2.1	32.1	41.7	193.0	13	13	24.4%	7.1%	3.54	3.70	3.3	3.5	52.9	70.1
10	Joe Ryan	114.1	6	6	27.0%	4.1%	3.55	3.44	2.6	2.0	30.5	43.9	186.1	11	10	27.0%	4.8%	3.67	3.51	4.0	3.1	48.5	69.0

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Tarik Skubal	116.0	10	3	30.8%	4.6%	2.41	2.57	3.4	3.8	51.0	75.9	186.0	15	7	30.0%	5.0%	2.66	2.72	5.3	5.6	75.1	112.0
2	Garrett Crochet	107.0	6	6	35.2%	5.4%	3.03	2.36	3.9	3.2	38.5	64.0	164.0	10	9	34.3%	6.3%	3.02	2.56	5.4	4.7	59.5	94.8
3	Corbin Burnes	118.1	9	4	23.3%	5.3%	2.44	3.36	2.6	3.9	47.1	62.0	199.1	14	8	24.1%	5.8%	2.89	3.40	4.3	5.3	69.0	93.3
4	Tanner Houck	117.0	8	6	23.5%	5.5%	2.54	2.67	3.4	3.3	44.7	68.4	182.0	12	10	23.2%	6.1%	3.07	2.98	4.6	4.4	58.5	89.2
5	Logan Gilbert	132.0	6	5	24.8%	5.0%	2.79	3.37	2.6	3.9	43.5	60.0	209.0	11	9	24.4%	5.3%	3.06	3.49	3.8	5.2	64.5	88.0
6	George Kirby	117.1	7	7	24.7%	2.8%	3.30	2.81	3.3	2.6	34.2	56.2	192.1	12	11	24.1%	3.1%	3.32	3.04	4.9	3.9	55.8	87.1
7	Seth Lugo	127.0	11	4	22.6%	5.8%	2.48	3.31	2.8	4.7	51.1	67.9	196.0	15	8	22.0%	6.1%	3.03	3.50	3.8	5.7	64.7	86.4
8	Cole Ragans	116.1	6	6	29.6%	8.0%	3.18	2.66	3.5	3.4	37.2	60.9	183.1	10	10	28.4%	8.3%	3.34	2.98	4.7	4.8	55.1	86.1
9	Luis Castillo	117.0	8	9	24.2%	7.1%	3.54	3.77	1.9	2.1	32.1	41.7	193.0	13	13	24.4%	7.1%	3.54	3.70	3.3	3.5	52.9	70.1
10	Joe Ryan	114.1	6	6	27.0%	4.1%	3.55	3.44	2.6	2.0	30.5	43.9	186.1	11	10	27.0%	4.8%	3.67	3.51	4.0	3.1	48.5	69.0

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National League

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	110.0	13	3	32.4%	5.6%	2.70	2.23	3.7	3.9	49.0	76.7	178.0	18	6	31.8%	5.9%	2.88	2.52	5.3	5.7	72.5	111.8
2	Zack Wheeler	116.1	10	4	27.0%	7.5%	2.71	3.31	2.9	3.7	45.7	61.1	196.1	15	8	26.3%	7.2%	3.03	3.33	4.8	5.4	68.0	93.5
3	Logan Webb	124.0	7	7	21.0%	5.5%	3.48	2.79	2.9	2.4	31.7	55.3	205.0	12	11	21.0%	5.4%	3.42	2.93	4.5	4.0	54.3	90.1
4	Tyler Glasnow	109.0	8	5	33.6%	6.8%	3.47	2.77	3.1	2.5	34.8	55.8	173.0	13	8	33.0%	7.0%	3.38	2.90	4.6	4.0	57.1	87.8
5	Ranger Suárez	114.0	10	4	24.5%	5.7%	2.76	3.04	3.0	3.4	43.2	61.7	185.0	15	7	23.3%	6.3%	3.11	3.28	4.2	4.8	61.2	86.3
6	Sonny Gray	99.1	9	6	30.3%	6.0%	3.36	2.56	2.9	1.7	33.7	55.1	171.1	14	9	27.7%	6.5%	3.36	2.92	4.3	3.3	54.9	84.9
7	Reynaldo López	95.1	7	3	24.6%	8.8%	1.89	3.06	2.3	4.2	44.1	59.4	156.1	11	6	24.7%	8.8%	2.65	3.32	3.2	5.2	59.0	79.5
8	Cristopher Sánchez	103.0	7	4	20.6%	6.6%	2.97	2.54	3.2	2.7	33.2	55.7	170.0	11	7	20.8%	6.8%	3.23	2.94	4.4	3.9	49.6	79.2
9	Paul Skenes	66.0	6	0	34.9%	5.1%	1.91	2.57	1.9	3.0	33.9	48.1	129.0	10	3	31.3%	6.2%	2.65	2.84	3.4	4.4	52.6	76.5
10	Max Fried	108.0	7	5	21.5%	7.7%	3.08	3.54	1.8	3.0	33.5	45.0	183.0	13	8	21.7%	7.3%	3.25	3.52	3.1	4.5	54.9	74.8

#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
		Season Stats											Projected Stats
#	Name	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP	IP	W	L	K%	BB%	ERA	FIP	WAR	RA9- WAR	CYP	FIP CYP
1	Chris Sale	110.0	13	3	32.4%	5.6%	2.70	2.23	3.7	3.9	49.0	76.7	178.0	18	6	31.8%	5.9%	2.88	2.52	5.3	5.7	72.5	111.8
2	Zack Wheeler	116.1	10	4	27.0%	7.5%	2.71	3.31	2.9	3.7	45.7	61.1	196.1	15	8	26.3%	7.2%	3.03	3.33	4.8	5.4	68.0	93.5
3	Logan Webb	124.0	7	7	21.0%	5.5%	3.48	2.79	2.9	2.4	31.7	55.3	205.0	12	11	21.0%	5.4%	3.42	2.93	4.5	4.0	54.3	90.1
4	Tyler Glasnow	109.0	8	5	33.6%	6.8%	3.47	2.77	3.1	2.5	34.8	55.8	173.0	13	8	33.0%	7.0%	3.38	2.90	4.6	4.0	57.1	87.8
5	Ranger Suárez	114.0	10	4	24.5%	5.7%	2.76	3.04	3.0	3.4	43.2	61.7	185.0	15	7	23.3%	6.3%	3.11	3.28	4.2	4.8	61.2	86.3
6	Sonny Gray	99.1	9	6	30.3%	6.0%	3.36	2.56	2.9	1.7	33.7	55.1	171.1	14	9	27.7%	6.5%	3.36	2.92	4.3	3.3	54.9	84.9
7	Reynaldo López	95.1	7	3	24.6%	8.8%	1.89	3.06	2.3	4.2	44.1	59.4	156.1	11	6	24.7%	8.8%	2.65	3.32	3.2	5.2	59.0	79.5
8	Cristopher Sánchez	103.0	7	4	20.6%	6.6%	2.97	2.54	3.2	2.7	33.2	55.7	170.0	11	7	20.8%	6.8%	3.23	2.94	4.4	3.9	49.6	79.2
9	Paul Skenes	66.0	6	0	34.9%	5.1%	1.91	2.57	1.9	3.0	33.9	48.1	129.0	10	3	31.3%	6.2%	2.65	2.84	3.4	4.4	52.6	76.5
10	Max Fried	108.0	7	5	21.5%	7.7%	3.08	3.54	1.8	3.0	33.5	45.0	183.0	13	8	21.7%	7.3%	3.25	3.52	3.1	4.5	54.9	74.8

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BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM	PIT	SDP
PHI	STL	SFG