Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Jerusalem, April 2021
Yonatan Sindel / JINI Xinhua / e​ye/Redux

Israel and Iran aren’t yet on the verge of a major escalation or war, and continued progress on the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna would likely forestall one, if Israel judges that trying to undermine a deal would exact too great a cost in its relations with Washington. But the factors that might well produce a significant blowup are now aligning in frightening fashion.

An April 11 explosion at the Natanz nuclear facilitypresumed to be the work of Israelwas a dramatic salvo in the shadow war over Iran’s nuclear program. In response to the attack, Iran ramped

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