Chess pieces in front of flags of Taiwan and China, August 2022
Nyancho NwaNri / Reuters

In the aftermath of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s ill-timed trip to Taiwan, China’s leaders were determined not to let a good crisis go to waste. They conducted unprecedented military drills, launching ballistic missiles near Taiwan and dispatching fighters and naval warships across the Taiwan Strait median line in an attention-getting show of force. China also released a white paper, only the third it has ever issued on Taiwan, laying out its terms for achieving unification—peacefully if possible, forcibly if necessary.

China’s reaction is part of a broader pattern. In 2012, Beijing responded to Japan’s nationalization of

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