Russian leader Vladimir Putin speaking at a presidential campaign event in Moscow, January 2024
Maxim Shemetov / Reuters

By many outward appearances, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power is stronger than ever. The country has rebounded from early military defeats in Ukraine and the initial shock of Western sanctions. State oil is flowing to new markets in Asia, including China, India, and Turkey, and the country’s defense sector is producing more weapons than all of Europe. At home, Putin has crushed what remains of political opposition on both the right and left, having eliminated the mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose rebellion against Moscow failed last summer, and popular opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died in

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