Democratic Party Affiliation Plunges to Record Low

The number of people who describe themselves as Democrats has shrunk to its lowest recorded level.

Gallup, a polling firm that tracks party affiliation monthly, found that in June's poll, 23 percent of respondents identified as Democrats—the lowest level since records began in 2004.

This decline in the Democratic base corresponds with a higher number of respondents identifying as independents, who—in the same poll—were recorded at their highest level since 2004: 51 percent. The remaining 25 percent identified as Republicans.

The U.S. has seen growing public dissatisfaction with both parties and in the wider political system. Last year, a Pew Research Center study found that only 16 percent of U.S. adults said they trusted the federal government, the lowest level recorded in almost 70 years of polling.

Newsweek contacted the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee for comment by email.

The Gallup poll, which surveyed a random sample of 1,005 adults aged 18 and older living in the U.S., was conducted by telephone between June 3 and 23. Landline and mobile phone numbers were selected using random-digit-dial methods. The poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Democratic Party has faced controversy in the days since President Joe Biden, its presumptive nominee in the 2024 election, debated former President Donald Trump in Atlanta on June 27. Biden's performance has received heavy criticism, prompting calls from within the party for the incumbent to step down.

Alan Abramowitz, a polling expert and professor emeritus of political science at Emory University, suggested caution when reviewing the results of the Gallup poll. "One thing to keep in mind is that a very large proportion of independents lean toward one party or the other, so their finding is not really as impressive as it seems," he told Newsweek.

Abramowitz mentioned a 2023 Pew study that found 97 percent of registered voters were either affiliated with or leaned toward the Republican or Democratic Parties. He also said Gallup was "no longer the poll of record that it was at one time."

FiveThirtyEight, a polling aggregator, ranks Gallup as the 35th best pollster on its list of 277 firms for its historical track record and transparent methodology, giving it a rating of 2.5 stars out of three.

As it stands, Biden and Trump are set for a rematch of the 2020 presidential election in November. With polls suggesting a tight race, party affiliation is one indicator of how the candidates may perform when voters head to the ballot.