Joe Biden's Ukraine Coalition Faces Reckoning

Weekend European Parliament elections across the European Union have sent shock waves through the bloc's centrist establishment, with the French and German engines of Europe's U.S.-aligned foreign policy—particularly President Joe Biden's backing for Ukraine and efforts to deter Russia from broader aggression—facing sustained domestic turbulence.

Europe's center-right European People's Party (EPP) is predicted to return at least 185 lawmakers to the next Parliament, winning over 25 percent of the 720 seats contested. The right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) is projected to take around 73 seats.

The center-left Socialists and Democrats' (S&D) seat share is predicted to remain roughly around the same at 137, while the liberal Renew Europe bloc is predicted to win around 79 seats—marking a significant loss of over 20 representatives.

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola—a member of the EPP—told Euronews: "From the first projections it looks like the constructive, pro-European center has held."

But the 185 million votes cast across 27 nations also delivered the predicted surge in far-right support, with Euroskeptic, anti-immigration, and Moscow-sympathetic parties winning big in both France and Germany.

The nations are traditionally considered the two economic and political pillars of the European community. A far-right swing for either could derail the pro-Ukraine transatlantic strategy led by Biden's administration from the U.S.

"This election's broader outcome indicates a political climate favoring the right over the left," Pawel Zerka, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Newsweek.

"The perception of insecurity, especially due to the Ukraine war, bolsters the right's credibility on security, defense, and foreign policy. Meanwhile, with the war being a polarizing issue in some member states—for example in Germany and Austria—the far-right captures anti-establishment votes from those opposing the consensus on supporting Ukraine."

Engine Trouble

Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) took nearly one third of all votes cast in France, prompting President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the domestic parliament and call for a snap election that could see Le Pen's party win the right to appoint a prime minister.

Le Pen and lead candidate Jordan Bardella have sought throughout the campaign to downplay the RN's links to Moscow, which include a past $6.4 million bank loan and its alleged role as a "communication channel" for the Kremlin, in the words of a 2023 French cross-parliamentary inquiry.

Macron—once maligned in Kyiv for his perceived naivety in the face of President Vladimir Putin's maneuvering—has recently been at the forefront of proposals to deepen NATO involvement in Ukraine, whether encouraging strikes within Russia, committing new combat jets, or even deploying allied troops to the country in noncombat roles.

"Recently, Macron has become a political locomotive of pro-Ukrainian initiatives, and it would be a pity if his influence dwindles," Oleksandr Merezhko—a member of the Ukrainian parliament and the chair of the body's foreign affairs committee—told Newsweek. "As for Le Pen's party, it seems to have changed somewhat its pro-Putin rhetoric and became more careful."

In neighboring Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democratic Party (SPD) were also humbled by challengers from the right.

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party—recently ejected from the far-right European Parliament's Identity and Democracy bloc after its lead candidate said Nazi SS members were "not all criminals"—was projected to win 16 percent of the vote.

The AfD has been beset by Russia-linked scandals, including allegations that top party officials have been involved in Moscow's espionage operations. Prominent members of the party have long been publicly sympathetic to Moscow's world outlook, and the AfD was criticized this year when a group of lawmakers traveled to Russian to serve as election observers for Putin's latest carefully managed presidential coronation.

Despite the growing far-right threat, Scholz's primary challengers still come from the traditional center-right. The CDU/CSU Union alliance won 30 percent of the vote to the SPD's 14 percent, reflecting its strong position heading into the next national election before October 2025.

"The relative success of the AfD is of some concern, because this party is ostensibly pro-Putin and tends to be regarded as a neo-Nazi party," Merezhko said. "In the EU, our biggest supporter in terms of military aid is Germany, and the victory of the CDU/CSU is encouraging and means that support will continue."

Le Pen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni appear the big winners of the weekend. The latter's Brothers of Italy performed strongly, winning the backing of more than a quarter of voters.

But Meloni has twinned her domestic culture war crusades and fierce anti-immigration rhetoric with a pro-E.U. stance and broad support for Ukraine, indicating that not all far-right domestic success runs counter to Kyiv's interests.

'Chaos' in Europe?

The immediate impact of the weekend's votes will be limited. The Parliament shares co-legislative power with the European Council—which is composed of the heads of state of national governments—in choosing how and when to adopt and amend proposed legislation.

Both bodies also decide on the EU budget and approve the head of the European Commission, which alone draws up legislation.

The ultimate decision-making body regarding foreign policy is the Council, diluting the foreign significance of this weekend's vote. Nonetheless, the shifting balance of power in Parliament poses "a risk of growing divisions and even chaos," Zerka said.

Such turbulence, he added, "threatens European unity and capacity to achieve compromises, so much in need today given the Ukraine war and the potential for another [Donald] Trump presidency."

The vote will redraw the battlefield for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a conservative EPP member who is eyeing a second term heading the powerful body. Von der Leyen will need to amass the support of 361 parliamentarians to win, meaning she may have to appeal to Meloni and her far-right representatives. Such a bid, though, might estrange left-leaning backers.

Parliament will also have influence over the bloc's enlargement. Ukraine—along with Moldova, Georgia, and several other nations where Russia has built significant influence—is currently in the EU waiting room. A more powerful far-right bloc within the Parliament may seek to delay or torpedo the addition of new members, especially those aligned with Moscow's outlook.

The view from Kyiv, Merezhko said, is optimistic. "We can see that there is strong potential for the creation of broad pro-Ukrainian coalition," he said. "It is good news that centrist parties have gained more votes than others, especially the EPP, which is viewed in Ukraine as our staunch supporter."

"On the whole, extreme right and extreme left parties, which are against support of Ukraine, will not play a key role in the European Parliament. Generally speaking, yes, there is some swing to the far right, but not as much as was expected," Merezhko said.