Spaghetti Models as Tropical Storm Beryl 'Likely' to Form

The most recent National Hurricane Center (NHC) update shows a storm system churning in the Atlantic Ocean has a strong chance of strengthening into Tropical Storm Beryl within the next 48 hours. Most forecasts predict the storm's path will take it west toward the Lesser Antilles.

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The storm system is expected to become the second tropical storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1. Tropical Storm Alberto, the first tropical storm of the season, made landfall in Mexico on the morning of June 20. Alberto's impacts were felt in Texas with excessive rainfall and flash flooding.

Spaghetti models, or computer models illustrating potential storm paths, show the newest storm aimed at the Lesser Antilles. Some paths forecast the storm veering further north toward Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, with other models anticipating impacts will be felt further south on the northeast coast of South America.

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"A tropical depression or storm will likely form east of the Lesser Antilles later today or Saturday. Also, there is a low chance of a tropical depression forming over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic," the NHC posted on X, formerly Twitter.

Newsweek reached out to the NHC by email for comment.

Some meteorologists said the chances are high that once Beryl forms a tropical storm, it will continue to strengthen until it reaches hurricane status. The difference between a tropical storm and a hurricane is the wind speeds. A tropical storm has wind speeds ranging from 39 mph to 73 mph. A hurricane is when wind speeds are classified as 74 mph or greater.

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"Fresh update just in from the National Hurricane Center: Tropical Storm Beryl will likely form in the Atlantic today or tomorrow, and odds are it'll further strengthen to a hurricane," CBS Austin meteorologist Avery Tomasco posted on X. "*Potential* U.S. impacts still 1+ week away... Path highly uncertain."

Multiple agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, have issued forecasts warning that 2024 will be an exceptionally strong year for hurricanes.

NOAA's forecast anticipates 17 to 25 named storms for an above-average hurricane season. Of the 25, eight to 13 will be hurricanes, and four to seven will be major hurricanes. The forecast number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued in a May outlook.

Several factors are contributing to this year's storm-heavy predictions, including abnormally warm sea surface temperatures and the expectation that El Niño will transition into La Niña by this summer or fall.