The LSU baseball team's title defense starts this weekend with regional action. The defending national champions will travel to Chapel Hill, North Carolina, for the opening round of the postseason.
The Tigers are 40-21 and coming off a trip to the title game in the SEC Tournament, where they ultimately fell to the College World Series favorite Tennessee Volunteers. LSU had difficulty reloading after losing the likes of Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews from last year’s team. But the Tigers hope they are getting hot at the right time, having won seven of their previous eight games.
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Still, the North Carolina Tar Heels are considered favorites to win their home regional as the national No. 4 seed. For the first time since 2018, the Tar Heels (42-13) are a top-eight seed.
Wofford and Long Island, meanwhile, are long shots to advance to the Super Regional behind the aforementioned duo.
Let’s take a closer look at the schedule, odds and best bet ahead of this week’s action:
2024 Chapel Hill Regional NCAA Schedule
(All games played at Bryson Field at Boshamer Stadium)
Friday, May 31
Game 1: 11 a.m. CT — LSU vs. Wofford (ESPNU)
Game 2: 5 p.m. CT — North Carolina vs. Long Island (ESPN+)
Saturday, June 1
Game 3: 11 a.m. CT — Loser of Game 1 vs. Loser of Game 2
Game 4: 4 p.m. CT — Winner of Game 1 vs. Winner of Game 2
Sunday, June 2
Game 5: 11 a.m. CT — Winner of Game 3 vs. Loser of Game 4
Game 6: 5 p.m. CT — Winner of Game 5 vs. Winner of Game 4
Monday, June 3
Game 7: TBA (If Necessary) — Winner of Game 6 vs. Loser of Game 6
Chapel Hill Regional betting odds
According to Caesars Sportsbook, North Carolina is a -150 favorite to win this week’s regional. That comes out to an implied probability of 60%. UNC’s outright price is the eighth-best odds among the 16 betting favorites among the regionals.
LSU might be the only viable challenger to North Carolina, with +150 odds to win this week’s regional. For comparison, that’s an implied probability of 40%.
Wofford is +900, while Long Island is +7500.
Chapel Hill Regional prediction
Line shopping is the best thing a bettor can do, especially for sports that don’t normally feature as much betting action. In this case, DraftKings appears to be offering a discount regarding North Carolina’s odds of winning the regional. The Tar Heels are -110 at that shop, whereas FanDuel (-125) and Caesars (-150) give the hosts much more respect.
Circa, which features a sharper trading team in Las Vegas, opened North Carolina at -135. Massey Ratings believes North Carolina is the second-best team in college baseball. They are particularly impressive at home, riding a 27-game win streak.
UNC is 33-8 all-time in home regional games. The Tar Heels have notched nine Super Regional berths from Chapel Hill. I’m betting they will do so a 10th time this weekend.
Best bet: North Carolina to win regional (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)