The 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest will have a different look. Competitive eating legend and 16-time champion Joey Chestnut was banned from the Nathan's event after signing a sponsorship deal with competitor Impossible Foods.
Without Chestnut, predicting the winner becomes a lot more interesting. Geoffrey Esper is the betting favorite at -120, followed by James Webb (+200) and Nick Wehry (+550).
2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds
Geoffrey Esper -120
James Webb +200
Nick Wehry +550
Patrick Bertoletti +800
Bartley Weaver IV +2000
Gideon Oji +2500
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest will certainly lack star power without Chestnut in the field. A majority of people tune in to see how many hot dogs the legend will eat with the winner of the competition being a foregone conclusion. However, without Chestnut, the outcome of the event is in doubt.
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Esper is the -120 favorite and to be honest, those odds are a little low. While he doesn't have the name recognition and can't eat nearly as many hot dogs as Chestnut, Esper has been the clear No. 2 in this event recently.
Over the past five year, Esper has averaged 48.8 hot dogs eaten and downed 49.5 dogs in this year's qualifiers. Esper's record is 51 dogs and he should approach that number on July 4.
Esper's main competition will be Webb and Wehry. Webb finished third in this event the last two years by averaging 44 hot dogs eaten. Wehry finished a close third in the qualifiers with 48 hot dogs eaten. Both participants will be in the mix in what should be the closest finish in decades.
If you are looking for a dark horse, Bertoletti is worth a shot. Bertoletti finished second to Esper in the qualifiers with 48.25 hot dogs eaten. He has steadily improved since first competing back in 2022 and is a serious threat to finish in the top three.
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While this competition will go right down to the final minute, I like Esper to finally get over the hump. Esper had always been fighting for second place but with Chestnut out of the way, it's his time the shine. He's my pick to win the 2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest.
Pick
Geoffrey Esper -120