11 teams have punched their tickets to the Super Regionals with five spots remaining. One of the most highly anticipated Game 7s of the NCAA Regionals is North Carolina vs. LSU in the Chapel Hill Regional. The two teams have split the weekend series thus far, so who do the odds favor in Monday's decisive duel?
First pitch is slated for 5:05 p.m. CT from Bryson Field at Boshamer Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. LSU will be the home team for the win-or-go-home Game 7 per NCAA decision. ESPN2 and ESPN+ will carry the national broadcast.
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Chapel Hill Regional final: LSU vs. UNC preview, prediction
LSU (43-22) wasn't guaranteed to make the postseason a few weeks ago. The Tigers are now just one win away from hosting a Super Regional at Alex Box Stadium with West Virginia (Tucson Regional winner) awaiting its next destination. Jay Johnson's squad must keep the bats hot to pull off the upset.
UNC (44-14) is looking to advance to the Super Regionals for the second time in three years. The Tar Heels have lost just three games at home all year. Now, they need one more win to ensure at least two more, which likely means North Carolina's first trip to Omaha since 2018.
Let’s take a closer look at the odds and trends:
North Carolina Tar Heels at LSU Tigers
Time/TV: 5:05 p.m. CT (ESPN2)
Moneyline: North Carolina -172, LSU +134
Analysis: Oddsmakers viewed this game as a pick 'em this morning. However, as the day has progressed, a gap has emerged in favor of North Carolina. The Tar Heels are now -172 favorites, which gives them an implied probability of 63.24%.
This shouldn't surprise anybody watching, despite North Carolina being a designated away team on home turf. The Tar Heels have been one of the best teams in the country — hence the national seed — and they've not lost back-to-back games at "The Bosh" all season.
LSU has a tall task ahead of it, and that's before you begin to factor in the pitching questions. The Tigers burned a lot of their pitching across 18 innings on Sunday. They'll have to find a way to come up with 27 more outs if they want to host a Super Regional. Luckily, the bats are hot after plating 21 runs across two games against Wofford and North Carolina respectively.
The reigning national champions have won six straight elimination games dating back to Omaha last season. Johnson will surely remind his team of this ahead of a pivotal Game 7. Veterans like Tommy White will be foaming at the mouth at the chance to get another shot to play in front of a home crowd in Baton Rouge.
I'm going with LSU for these reasons, especially at plus money.
Prediction: LSU 6, North Carolina 4
Best bet: LSU moneyline (+134 via FanDuel Sportsbook)