SPC AC 180050

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0750 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

   Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The threat for damaging winds will continue this evening across
   portions of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys into the
   Mid-Atlantic. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
   anticipated across parts of the central High Plains.

   ...Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley...
   A line of thunderstorms continue to push east towards the
   Mid-Atlantic coast as of 00 UTC. Latest RAP mesoanalysis continues
   to show adequate buoyancy and deep-layer shear immediately
   downstream for storm maintenance for the next 1-2 hours, but
   increasing MLCIN with the onset of nocturnal cooling and
   undercutting outflows (noted in some regional radar imagery) will
   likely result in a gradual weakening trend through late evening as
   storms reach the coast. To the west across the southern Appalachians
   and TN Valley, shallow convection continues to percolate along a
   cold front as synoptic ascent associated with the primary upper low
   to the north glances the region. Although the air mass across TN
   into the southern Appalachians has been convectively overturned to
   some degree over the past several hours, latest CAM guidance
   continues to suggest convection along the front may increase in
   coverage and intensity after 01 UTC with an attendant threat for
   sporadic damaging winds.

   ...Central High Plains...
   A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms ongoing across
   northeast CO may pose a severe wind and hail threat for the next few
   hours, but a gradual weakening trend is expected later tonight due
   to a propensity for undercutting outflows and as storms migrate
   southward into an air mass that has already been processed by prior
   convection. To the south across far southwest KS, a cluster of
   thunderstorms may continue to propagate to the south along a
   buoyancy axis and pose a wind threat, but poor MLCAPE and weak
   hodograph structure observed in the 00 UTC DDC sounding suggest the
   potential for a more organized severe threat is limited.

   ..Moore.. 07/18/2024

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