Blairites (there are still a few true believers left) were heartened recently by the news that Jonathan Powell, the former PM's capable chief of staff, was still on Gordon Brown's speed dial - at no less than number three. Powell, about to make his fortune in the City, is one of the people with whom Brown's predecessor has been discussing a bid for the EU presidency, whom Europe's 27 heads of state will appoint at a summit this October.
Publicly, Blair's spokesman Matthew Doyle insists "There is no campaign and no campaign team. Mr Blair is focused on his role in the Middle East". A typically effective bit of media handling from Doyle, but then he would say that, wouldn't he?
The truth is that Blair is very keen indeed on the job, but won't declare his interest until the votes are in the bag. In fact the main reason he has taken on so many private sector engagements recently is to make some money before he has to relinquish them, if, as he hopes, he gets the call from Brussels.
Is that likely, though, and what is going on in his mind that makes him so determined to have a political second life?
His chances depend on just one citizen out of Europe's 500 million: Gordon Brown. If he remains lukewarm and tips the nod to the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, she should be able to crush the pro-Blair campaign which is being led by the French.
There are strong arguments against Blair assuming the new role. His support for the war in Iraq is foremost, but also his inability to get Britain to join either the Eurozone or the Schengen free-movement area. A poll last summer showed opposition from voters across the EU, with roughly three-fifths opposed (see table 6). Former French president Valéry Giscard D'Estaing, who is still influential across the continent, has expressed his opposition. And there is already an online campaign to stop Blair, complete with petition.
But Sarkozy's aides brush all this aside. One said recently: "Why not? He is qualified for it. We want a politically strong Europe. We want a president who is credible." It is true that Blair would attract media attention in a way that the other candidates would not. He may well be able to open doors in cities across the world, especially in the crucial trading partners of India and China.
But without many formal powers - and they will not be forthcoming, whatever deal Blair tries to cut, Blair's power will come pretty much exclusively from his perceived status and media profile. Brown must see the potential conflict. Who would speak for Britain in Washington, Delhi and Beijing? PM Brown or President Blair?
In a weird historical echo, the deal between Blair and French president Sarkozy was cooked up in a restaurant not dissimilar to Islington's Granita, where Brown believes he and Blair made their own political deal. That one, of course resulted in a decade of acrimony.
Maybe the agreement made in Thiou's, a stylish Thai restaurant on the banks of the Seine, last May will have a happier prognosis but whatever the entente cordiale between Blair and Sarkozy, it is unlikely Brown will relish having Blair back in the political limelight.
Blair must see this too, but he is clearly not willing to go gentle into that good night. In his heart, Blair feels cheated of his premiership, and urged on by his wife and what is left of his circle, he is determined to have a political renaissance. As he waits in the wings, he would do well to reflect on the latest news about that supposed speed dial to Jonathan Powell. Downing Street has made clear that the phone is never used by the new PM and that the numbers in its memory will, in any case, shortly be deleted.