It is one of politics' more surprising facts that Gordon Brown is a big fan of TV talent shows. One of the rare ways in which he relaxes is by grabbing a bottle of beer and settling down with Sarah and his eldest son in front of the telly on a Saturday night. But has the struggling PM got the political X factor?
Political charisma is much misunderstood, but it is a vital element in the alchemy of political success. It touches on questions of character, celebrity and image, but above all it is about authenticity. For it is avowedly not about voters feeling they like their leaders, it is about them feeling they know them.
Without such a connection, founded on a sense of who Brown is and what makes him tick, voters will feel, understandably, alienated from the PM and what he is trying to do. More than that, in an age of increasingly presidential politics, without a personal narrative to animate his or her government, a leader can never hope successfully to communicate what he or she is for.
Other, albeit related, issues need to be separated out. Such as what should be the theme of the government; which policies need to be developed to bring that theme alive; and how Downing Street can be transformed so that all this can be communicated and then delivered. These are important but ultimately secondary because, even if - a big if - Brown sorts them all out, if he cannot connect with the viewing public, he will lose the vote, come the final.
How can he connect though? This is not a choice between concocting some image that doesn't ring true or doing nothing and leaving your opponents to define you, which the Conservatives are busy doing. Projecting who Brown is to voters, in a way that will interest and attract them, isn't about 'creating' an image. It is about revealing and communicating a reality. Brown's advisers, reflecting his own unease, have fought shy of doing this in case they are accused of spin. But it is OK to use effective communications to promote Brown's authentic character. In fact it is vital.
Take the small but revealing example of his enjoyment of The X Factor. It strikes one as odd, given what else we know about him, yet just three weeks ago there was a passionate discussion over Sunday lunch at Chequers about the merits of Leon, winner of the recent series. But - and this is where one has to speak directly to Brown, and address his fears and insecurities - Gordon, why do you like it?
For heaven's sake, don't tell us it 'promotes aspiration in a global creative economy'. Come on, what's in your gut? Why do you like the ridiculous programme - just tell us. It doesn't matter whether your reason is silly or embarrassing. Tell people the truth - that you originally got hooked because the TV would be left on after you'd watched the football and it's something the whole family can share.
I know that you are privately appalled by the way David Cameron uses his children in photoshoots, but modern campaigning requires you to introduce your family to the nation. Don't refuse to do this until the pressure of an election forces you to do it in an ill-thought-out way. Plan it now, do it carefully, in moderation and on your own terms. You are incredibly close to your boys, as we can see from today's Observer interview. People will naturally want to know a bit more about your life as a father and Sarah will, eventually, have to go on This Morning. There are plenty of jobs without these occupational hazards. Unfortunately, yours isn't one of them.
You will have to open up, too. Take recently when you asked Paddy Ashdown to join your cabinet. When you met, you talked about Ashdown's specialist subject, terrorism. As you make clear today, you're sticking to '42 days' but you'll need to make the emotional as well as the rational appeal to people on this, as on everything else. But do it your way. After your meeting Ashdown told people in astonishment: 'He had already read all the books I had read. He was already ahead of me.' Your office is as chaotic as Tony Blair's was coldly clinical. Emails burst on to your extra-large computer screen, files topple on every surface and there are always three or four books cracked open so you can snatch a few minutes' reading whenever you can. Let the public see this side of you.
Talk more about your reading. Let us see pictures of you with your desk piled high with books or your bag bulging at the airport. You and your advisers shouldn't be ashamed of your bookish intensity. It won't alienate you from voters, quite the contrary: it will endear you to them because they will sense that it is real.
Who cares if you sometimes seem a bit intense? Start thinking and speaking from the heart and you will show people that, with all your flaws and rough edges, you are at least authentic. As well as being the only way that you can exist comfortably, without all the linguistic contortion that too often bedevils your Commons and media appearances today, it could be the strongest card you could play against David Cameron. For the Conservative leader is in danger of being seen by voters as too slick, as they ask themselves what exactly lies behind his carefully constructed image. There is an opportunity here. Cameron could well end up being judged as smug, lightweight and insincere. Your solidity and seriousness could well chime with the times.
Which brings us to the overarching theme of your government - in short, what people will perceive you are for. You don't have far to look. It is buried in everything you have said since last June. It is particularly buried under that peculiar word 'aspiration' that should be outlawed as a non-word, never used once in a pub, even in Whitehall. What fires up you and the people around you is the idea of ambition: encouraging it, spreading it, making it real for everybody, irrespective of background.
You could flesh this out with work in three policy areas: education, where you and Ed Balls have made a great start; welfare reform, where you have to be more radical than the Tories and finally, with a huge effort to help young people set up businesses or social enterprises: let an entrepreneurial spirit rage through your new youth centres.
It is vital to get crime, health, the environment and housing policy right. Not to mention Europe, Iraq and the rest. Weathering the economic storm, where your experience and seriousness are great strengths, will need to go well, too. We can see from what you say in today's interview that this matters to you, and is a role in which you feel comfortable.
Notice, though, how Barack Obama connects emotionally with people all the time, especially with his talk, last week, of hope and the future. For as well as being a steady hand you need a raison d'être - something that you're about, that drives you, that resonates with voters emotionally, and that should be about everyone's desire to better themselves. One big idea; ambition; three policies to bring it alive that you can campaign for, be passionate about and be judged on.
To deliver on this mission you need to get the mechanics right. Your team in No 10 should be expanded - bring in some heavy hitters - inspired and empowered to take decisions where they can. But you will need to reveal more of who you are - warts and all - to the public so that they can get to know, and therefore trust, you to make it all happen.
You will know from your Saturday night viewing that X Factor fans have a track record of voting for the underdog, the less slick act rather than the super-smooth performer. That is because the former seems more real, but only because they have taken the risk of letting the public in on their reality and made themselves vulnerable as a result. Doing likewise will, undoubtedly, be the most difficult thing that you have ever had to do for your political dream. When you were elected Labour leader, you said: 'The party I lead must have more than a set of policies - we must have a soul.'
It is time - and I know the very idea will make you flinch - for you to bare yours. If you can't - or won't - I fear that when your final vote comes, the result will not be the one for which you yearn.
· Derek Draper is a former Labour adviser
derekdraper@flowvideo.co.uk