To the surprise of nearly everybody, the world's youngest president has now lasted in office for three months.
When Jean-Claude Duvalier, ninth president-for-life of Haiti and just turned 20, succeeded to the dictatorship on the death of his father "Papa Doc" in April, few thought the balloon-like, reputedly not-too-bright first-year law student could defy for more than a few days the tradition of nearly 170 years of political violence which has scarred and ruined the tiny Caribbean republic since independence in 1804. But he has.
Part of the explanation is that Haitians are still hypnotised by the memory of the canny little country doctor who cultivated a personal aura of folk magic, unpredictability and mystery as the cornerstone of his power.
But the key factor is that the fragile-looking alliance of soldiers and civilians behind Jean-Claude – the real successors to "Papa Doc" in terms of power – have so far managed to shelve their quarrels and display the same extraordinary skill at the game of political survival which enabled their mentor to crush with ease eight attempted exile invasions in 11 years and to face down an open attempt by the United States to depose him in 1963.
The most urgent task of the self-styled "Continuators of the Duvalierist Revolution" was to reassert control over the Tontons Macoutes, "Papa Doc's" 8,000-strong private army. It proved surprisingly easy. Pushing hard the line that all abuses of power by the Macoutes would in future be severely punished, the wily and powerful Interior and Defence Minister Luckner Cambronne, himself a former Macoutes leader, gambled successfully on popular support, removed the top leadership of the militia, and put in new men.
The armed forces have been bought off for the moment with a pay rise, particularly for the lower ranks where there is believed to be a strong reformist current. And to attract support and goodwill from all, the Government has been talking of little else since it took office but the urgent need for rapid economic development, a crackdown on corruption and "reconciling the nation with itself."
But though there has been some loosening up, so far it has been only a pseudo-liberalisation. The tyrant who deepened Haiti's tragedy is gone but his system has been maintained intact.
[Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier was president of Haiti until 1986, when popular uprisings forced him into exile. He returned to Haiti in January 2011.]
These archive extracts are compiled by members of the Guardian's research and information department. Email: research.department@theguardian.com