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Fikra Forum
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Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Yazidis in Sinjar: When Politics Controls the Fate of Minorities
The greatest concern for small communities in Iraq is the failure of the state to regain its strength and ability to manage the country independently.
Aug 22, 2024
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Izat Noah
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Even After Houthi Attacks, Russia-Linked Tankers Return to Red Sea
The operators are either accepting risk on a vital transport route or else no longer concerned about perceptions about their vessels’ past links to Britain.
Aug 22, 2024
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Noam Raydan
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Maritime Spotlight
Brief Analysis
One Year of the U.S.-Bahrain C-SIPA: Signs of Progress, Regional Potential
The progress the two partners have made through C-SIPA offers a fresh model for future U.S. cooperation with other Middle East countries in the security, economic, and technology sectors.
Aug 21, 2024
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Elizabeth Dent
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Analyzing the Successes and Failures of Iraq’s 5th plus and 6th Oil and Gas Bid Rounds
For the sake of the Iraqi labor market and of developing domestic expertise in oil and gas management, the government should seek to become more attractive to major IOCs outside of the Chinese companies currently drawn in by its bids.
Aug 21, 2024
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Muhammed Abed Mazeel al-Aboudi
Brief Analysis
The Pros and Cons of Salvaging (or Ditching) UNIFIL
Given the current lack of viable security alternatives on the Israel-Lebanon border, Washington may try to patch up UNIFIL’s many deficiencies—but it must do so with a clear understanding that the force has repeatedly failed its mission and squandered its credibility.
Aug 20, 2024
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David Schenker
Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Pezeshkian’s Cabinet Reflects Iran’s Institutional Stagnation
The regime’s preference for ideological commitment over expertise has compromised its bureaucratic hiring processes and led to massive institutional decay, making it unlikely that the new president will be able to fulfill his campaign promises or otherwise govern effectively.
Aug 19, 2024
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Saeid Golkar
Articles & Testimony
What to Make of China’s Moves in the Middle East
Beijing doesn’t care that its “Palestinian unity” agreement is a nonstarter or that a Hamas victory would undermine Chinese interests in stabilizing the Middle East—it just wants the United States to lose.
Aug 19, 2024
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Michael Singh
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Diyala Governship Shows Badr Leaning on Maliki to Remain Competitive
As Militia Spotlight previewed, the tussle in Diyala shows that Badr's slow political descent is encouraging various militias and tribal elements to scramble for power.
Aug 19, 2024
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Michael Knights
Ameer al-Kaabi
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Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Signal De-Escalation with the U.S., Return to Cosmetic Israel Strikes
The self-styled Iraqi "resistance" has hinted at a desire to end the tit-for-tat sequence of strikes with the United States and return to cost-free counter-Israel operations.
Aug 18, 2024
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Countering Iran in East Syria Means Moderating the SDF
Groups supported by Iran and the Assad regime have found some local traction due in part to grievances against the Kurdish-led SDF’s governance strategy in Arab tribal areas.
Aug 16, 2024
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Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
A Year of Suwayda Protests Show That Assad Is No Partner
The regime’s increasing violence against a once-loyal Druze minority is yet another reminder that “normalizing” relations with Assad will never yield the stability neighboring states crave.
Aug 16, 2024
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Erik Yavorsky
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
A New Era for Turkish-Syrian Ties?
The path towards reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus faces numerous obstacles, linked to a history of mistrust and significant gaps in major contentious issues.
Aug 16, 2024
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Omar al-Radad
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
An Iron Curtain in the Sahel
Russia is taking advantage of recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to embed itself in the Sahel. However, its indiscriminate counterterrorism tactics come with a cost for their forces and the regimes it protects.
Aug 15, 2024
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Kyle Robertson
Articles & Testimony
There Is Still Time to Stop a Wider War in the Middle East
Because the landscape has shifted since April, the Biden administration’s previous script for preventing irreversible escalation may no longer work.
Aug 15, 2024
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Dana Stroul
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Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Video
Brief Analysis
On the Brink? The Potential for a Broader Conflict in the Middle East
An Israeli general and two former U.S. officials discuss the prospects of an imminent Iranian attack and what can be done to deter it.
Aug 14, 2024
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Amir Eshel
David M. Satterfield
Dana Stroul
Brief Analysis
Explosive Remnants: Gaza’s Literal Ticking Bomb
Reconstruction can’t happen until thousands of dud bombs and other explosives are cleared from the urban rubble—a task that faces formidable shortfalls in funding, manpower, and other resources.
Aug 12, 2024
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Andrew G. Clemmensen
Brief Analysis
Only a Credible Offensive Threat Can Deter Iran from Climbing the Escalation Ladder
Amid a flurry of U.S. military deployments and allied diplomacy, it is uncertain if an embarrassed Tehran will attack Israel, but one thing is clear: allowing it to do so again without meaningful consequences would set a dangerous precedent.
Aug 9, 2024
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Farzin Nadimi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Clashes in Northern Syria: The Triumph of Interests Over the Language of "Brotherhood"?
With no prospects for a political solution to the Syrian crisis, the Turkish government's insistence on maintaining its previous policies in northern Syria and its usurpation of the Syrian people's decision-making warns of dire consequences for an already fragile relationship.
Aug 9, 2024
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Salahuddin Hawa
Video
Brief Analysis
Mapping Iranian External Operations Worldwide
Three counterterrorism experts and former officials discuss a powerful new interactive tool and its implications for mobilizing international pressure on Iran and its proxies.
Aug 9, 2024
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Matthew Levitt
Magnus Ranstorp
Norman Roule
Brief Analysis
Israel-Turkey Relations Nearing a Rupture
Even with U.S. intercession, the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran could harden Ankara’s stance against Israel and spur a fatal cycle of diplomatic and economic retaliation.
Aug 9, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
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