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Net profit for the fourth quarter is likely to grow up to 68% year-on-year, according to various analyst estimates, while net sales are expected to rise 13% year-on-year.
Analysts are baking in 11% year-on-year sales growth in the hospitals segment in 4QFY24, while HealthCo sales to grow 14% year-on-year, driven by growth in pharmacy distribution sales on account of the store expansion as well as traction in 24/7.
Investors may watch out for the GMV outlook in Apollo 24/7 and updates on capacity expansions at Pune, Hyderabad, Kolkata and Bengaluru are the key monitorables.
Here's what analysts expect from Apollo Hospitals
Kotak Equities
For AHLL, we forecast 16% year-on-year sales growth in 4QFY24, led by strong growth across diagnostics and specialty care segments. Overall, we expect APHS' revenues to grow 13% year-on-year (flat quarter-on-quarter) in 4QFY24.
We build in 8% year-on-year growth in hospitals EBITDA with EBITDA margin at 23.7% (-70 bps year-on-year). We expect operating spends (including ESOP costs) in 24/7 to decline by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 153 crore in 4QFY24. Resultantly, we expect Apollo Healthco to report marginal EBITDA of Rs 2 crore. We expect consolidated EBITDA margin to remain flat quarter-on-quarter at 12.7%.
Motilal Oswal
Sales and EBITDA are expected to grow 14% and 25% year-on-year to Rs 2,500 crore and Rs 600 crore, respectively, due to improved ARPOB and Healthco operations.
With enhanced footfalls in primary care/Diagnostics and improved operational efficiencies, AHLL is expected to register 15%/37% year-on-year growth in Revenue and EBITDA.
Nuvama
We expect hospital business to report 13% year-on-year but remain largely flat quarter-on-quarter due to presence of longer holiday weeks in January and March. Occupancy is expected to be at 66%.
ARPOBs are also likely to remain steady at Rs 56,900. We estimate hospital EBITDA margin of 23.6%, 20bps quarter-on-quarter/-80bps year-on-year due to increased marketing and doctor costs.
Pharmacy is likely to continue its growth momentum given 550 store additions in FY24 and 1000 in FY23. Offline growth of 20%+ year-on-year/ +2% quarter-on-quarter; however Online 24/7 growth to remain largely flat quarter-on-quarter. We estimate Rs 150 crore spent including ESOPs (largely flat quarter-on-quarter).
AHLL to report strong 20% year-on-year growth, albeit on a weak base but also improve decline 11% quarter-on-quarter mainly driven by diagnostics. The overall margin to remain largely flat quarter-on-quarter at 12.7% as improvement in AHLL, pharmacy to offset by dip in hospitals' margin.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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