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Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Additional Impacts." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27102.

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Appendix E

Additional Impacts

Table E-1 captures impacts, in which the topic addressed was discussed by only one participant (albeit sometimes in multiple cards) during the turn and that are not addressed elsewhere in the main body of the proceedings. These impacts are organized by expertise group and sorted by scenario turn.

Page 100 Cite

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Additional Impacts." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27102.

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TABLE E-1 Impacts Identified by Single Participants in Each Expertise Group That Were Not Raised for Additional Discussion and Were Not Addressed Elsewhere in This Proceedings

Academia/Technical Expertise Group
Theme	Turn	Impact Summary	Supporting Efforts
Engagement	Path to Net Zero (2022–2035)	Community engagement and co-design of policy and project implementation become crucial (e.g., for clean energy siting, closure pathways). Academic researchers provide valued input to define models for engagement, technical assistance, and capacity building. Fieldwork, interdisciplinary engagement, and facilitation funding grow much faster than historically.	Ensure visibility and transparency. Increase information sharing between industry and stakeholders. Develop a stakeholder group to support engagement and buy-in. Conduct studies of community impact as part of siting and permitting. Require a study to identify those potentially at risk of being left behind.
Remediation	Path to Net Zero (2022–2035)	As facilities close (especially legacy industrial and extraction facilities), the need for science and engineering on rapid remediation grows. Funding and training programs for remediation—addressing basic science through implementation—increase rapidly, potentially through large grant centers and consortia.	Maximize existing skillsets and locations by leveraging the oil and gas workforce for remediation and safe closure of infrastructure that retires (or will retire) during the transition.

Page 101 Cite

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Additional Impacts." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27102.

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Carbon Dioxide Removal	Path to Net Zero (2036–2050)	Strong work on monitoring, reporting, and verification for carbon dioxide removal in the 2020s enables trustworthy carbon dioxide removal. Research on institutional models and justice enables the development of an innovative carbon dioxide removal project in the Gulf region (direct air capture and mineralization), with strong and well-understood constraints based on safety and fence-line community impacts. Moreover, public and community ownership models, enabled by research with communities, provide benefits.	Communicate about carbon dioxide removal with communities, including its risks and benefits, as well as how it is accomplished. Tie carbon dioxide removal projects back to concrete impacts and benefits for the community. Engage with community stakeholders to identify carbon dioxide removal projects. Develop and implement a framework for validation of carbon dioxide removal projects. Address both long-term application and engagement with citizen scientists.
Reclaimed Superfund Sites	Path to Net Zero (2036–2050)	Growth of solar and storage at scale, including the conversion of all superfund sites to solar sites, with extra energy generated used to address superfund contamination.	None.
Tax Incentives	Path to Net Zero (2036–2050)	Tax incentives for fossil fuel production have been completely phased out. Louisiana’s Industrial Tax Exemption Program now provides incentives for renewable energy and clean (i.e., zero emissions) manufacturing.	None.
Carbon Storage and Utilization	Steadying the Transition (2022–2050)	Advances in both storage and utilization of carbon occur, including new ways of reducing risks associated with and improving monitoring of carbon sequestration sites. Additionally, carbon utilization research leads to a transformation of chemicals production, serving as a new economic engine for the Gulf region.	Focus on ensuring the safety and reliability of carbon capture and sequestration.

Page 102 Cite

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Additional Impacts." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27102.

×

Theme	Turn	Impact Summary	Supporting Efforts
Flight of Renewable Talents	Steadying the Transition (2022–2050)	Talent and startups go to first-adopter states and regions, or overseas. Their loss hinders context-based technology development and leaves the Gulf Coast with a dearth of new technologies.	None.
National Laboratory	Steadying the Transition (2022–2050)	By 2050, a new U.S. Department of Energy “national energy transformation laboratory” is fully staffed and funded in Galveston, driving world-class research on carbon capture, utilization, and storage; offshore wind; and other critical technologies.	Include historically Black colleges and universities and minority-serving institutions in research. The research should provide concrete benefits to communities and be well communicated. Provide dedicated funding from the federal government. Establish multiple massive public–private partnerships (or possibly develop partnerships with the private sector)—for example, a national maritime innovation center. Use the Centers of Excellence as a potential framework.

Page 103 Cite

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Additional Impacts." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27102.

×

Community Expertise Group
Theme	Turn	Impact Summary	Supporting Efforts
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Using Outdated Methane Science	Path to Net Zero (2022–2035)	Update EPA science on methane. In addition to oil and gas operations, landfills are not being addressed.	None.
Financing the Transition	Path to Net Zero (2022–2035)	Need affordable financing for resilience and weatherization. Money will flow to green banks and Community Development Financial Institutions to finance weatherization and solar installation projects.	Provide funding through the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council, targeting lending to local small businesses and nonprofits. Develop standards for identifying places where energy equity challenges exist.

Page 104 Cite

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Additional Impacts." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27102.

×

Theme	Turn	Impact Summary	Supporting Efforts
Health Impacts	Path to Net Zero (2022–2035)	Mental health and the need for coping skills to deal with repetitive disasters (i.e., hurricanes and chronic flooding). Also, mental health impacts of job loss. The next generation needs coping skills. Effort is needed to educate policy makers and the public on the health impacts from a warming climate and the pollution from fossil fuels, to better understand the urgent need to advance the clean energy transition.	Provide basic access to health care. Provide modular training (e.g., dance therapy to cope with trauma). Partner with the Trauma Resource Institute. Provide community programs and free counseling. Work with community foundations, faith-based organizations, and health professionals. Conduct outreach to emergency medical technicians, parents, and community health (e.g., on heat illness prevention).
Super Pollutants: Methane	Steadying the Transition (2022–2050)	Tackle methane from oil and gas operations and landfills by removing organics in the process. Create more food security and work with the agricultural community to take usable produce out of the process before it gets to landfills.	Have EPA update the science on methane.
Climate Change Impacts	Steadying the Transition (2022–2050)	The participant commented on the ramifications of increasingly severe climate impacts on economic sectors (tourism, agriculture, construction) and public health (including mental health), and the need for greater urgency in advancing the transition. This participant pointed to the cost of adaptation being more than the cost of clean energy.	Figure out how to adapt and harden facilities and institutionalize best practices. Learn lessons from the Dutch (e.g., increasing the resilience of ports).

Page 105 Cite

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Additional Impacts." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27102.

×

Governance Expertise Group
Theme	Turn	Impact Summary	Supporting Efforts
Electrification/Greening of Pipelines	Path to Net Zero (2022–2035)	Electrification/greening of pipeline construction and operations (e.g., compressor and pumping stations, construction vehicles).	None.
Mandated Spatial Data Infrastructure	Path to Net Zero (2022–2035)	Offshore mapping systems have been modernized from NAD27 to more accurate datum, allowing baseline monitoring and methods for tracking change. Data are shared across energy sectors, states, communities, and tribes. A transition data dashboard is created for the five states.	None.
Securing Energy Infrastructure	Path to Net Zero (2022–2035)	As the United States transitions to net zero, renewable energy infrastructure will need to be secured (both physical security and cybersecurity). Current regulations in place before 2035 were adapted to new infrastructure.	Adapt security measures to each specific industry. Conduct physical and drone patrols of wind farms, which currently have little to no security in place. Place sensors above and below the water for offshore wind.
Wind Energy Area Identification	Path to Net Zero (2022–2035)	Wind area identification models would need to change to increase offshore wind. For example, regulatory restrictions would need to be modified to allow for new areas.	None.

Page 106 Cite

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Additional Impacts." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27102.

×

Theme	Turn	Impact Summary	Supporting Efforts
Pipelines	Steadying the Transition (2022–2050)	One participant envisioned that demands for new and repurposed pipeline infrastructure—to support hydrogen, carbon dioxide, hydrogen and natural gas blends, etc.—were much lower in this scenario than initially projected. As a result, expenditures for research and development (R&D) and updates to pipeline safety standards and regulations were not onerous. Similarly, because decarbonization of the pipeline industry was seen as not being pursued, R&D and costs were lower than projected, and anticipated losses in pumping efficiencies did not materialize. Less diversion of resources leads to increases in the resilience and integrity of oil and gas pipelines. However, this also leads to increased accidents for alternative fuel and carbon dioxide pipelines, which increases public opposition to the energy transition.	Transfer workers trained in geothermal (which the scenario presents a negative future for) into carbon capture and sequestration and pipeline safety. Invest in R&D to close knowledge gaps. Update standards and training. Ensure states take ownership of pipeline safety concerns.

Page 107 Cite

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Additional Impacts." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27102.

×

Industry Expertise Group
Theme	Turn	Impact Summary	Supporting Efforts
Offshore Safety	Path to Net Zero (2022–2035)	Exit of skilled offshore workers over the past 20+ years creates increased potential of an offshore process safety (spill/well control) event.	None.
Risk Profiles	Path to Net Zero (2022–2035)	Energy transition technology and operational changes will have significant effects on risk profiles across the Gulf region (e.g., industrial, commercial, marine/offshore, communities).	Conduct energy transition risk profiling for new, clean-energy technologies. These profiling activities would potentially be led by the Gulf Research Program, reflect an all-hazards approach, integrate into permitting processes, extend to address supporting infrastructure, and support the development of strategies to manage and mitigate risks.
We Left Out LNG	Path to Net Zero (2022–2035)	The liquefied natural gas (LNG) train has started. Need to include as a possible pathway.	Provide policy support for continued oil and gas use throughout the transition, as appropriate. Maintain a professional workforce. Increase carbon capture efforts. Develop future-proof designs on LNG infrastructure. Manage upstream methane to make LNG more attractive.
Drilling and Completions Continue	Path to Net Zero (2036–2050)	Well drilling and completion skills and technology continue, but in drilling and completing geothermal wells and carbon capture and storage wells in the Gulf of Mexico.	None.

Page 108 Cite

Suggested Citation:"Appendix E: Additional Impacts." National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2023. Navigating the Energy Transition in the Gulf of Mexico: Proceedings of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/27102.

×

Theme	Turn	Impact Summary	Supporting Efforts
Hydrogen	Path to Net Zero (2036–2050)	Offshore wind produces hydrogen directly and is stored in and distributed from subsea storage via ships. Potentially located in Mississippi, a national strategic reserve for hydrogen is established to provide resilience from hydrogen supply interruptions in the Gulf (e.g., from natural disasters).	None.
National Security Concerns	Path to Net Zero (2036–2050)	With 1,500 offshore wind turbines and up to 10 percent of the nation’s power located in vulnerable points offshore, maintaining the power supply will be a major national security and naval concern.	Designate offshore wind as critical infrastructure to regulate it and provide additional resources for securing it. Develop more resilient turbines to withstand Gulf hurricanes. Expand the Marine Transportation Security Act to include wind and solar. Conduct a study to examine the risks to marine ecosystems from transmission; carry out R&D to improve safety.
Nuclear	Path to Net Zero (2036–2050)	Resistance to nuclear solutions for clean energy slows progress toward net-zero carbon operations.	Engage in dialog with communities with clear communications. Provide education and training for the workforce. Use as floating power—that is, ready to bring in for outages (for resiliency). Change shipbuilding to increase the ability for U.S. markets to compete.