2

Workshop Results

The 22 participants attending the workshop identified a total of 291 impacts associated with the two scenarios¹ 196 for the Path to Net Zero scenario (115 positive, 72 negative, 7 neutral, and 2 not coded), and 95 for the Steadying the Transition scenario (11 positive, 83 negative, and 1 neutral). Overall, participants identified a comparable number of negative impacts (53 percent) and positive impacts (47 percent), but the proportion of negative impacts was different for the two scenarios. Only 36 percent of impacts identified in the Path to Net Zero scenario were negative.² In contrast, 87 percent of impacts identified in the Steadying the Transition scenario were negative.

EXPERTISE GROUP IMPACT SELECTIONS

During the workshop, each expertise group had the opportunity to select and present one impact from each of their Phase 1 turns during Phase 2. At the end of each Phase 1 turn, workshop facilitators asked participants to decide on the top one or two impacts that they were most interested in sharing with the other groups. In total, nearly 80 cascading impacts were identified from the 12 presented impacts (4 presented impacts per turn). The remainder of this section provides additional details about these impacts, the resulting cascading impacts

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¹ The number of impacts identified by participants ranged from 4 to 25 for those individuals participating both days, with participants generating 14 impacts on average. Of the 291 impacts identified, only 6 did not list an author.

² In addition, the percentage of negative impacts decreased across the two turns of the Path to Net Zero scenario, dropping from 43 percent in the 2035 turn to 28 percent in the 2050 turn. The progression of chronological events depicted in the scenario narrative likely influenced this decrease.

generated in Phase 2, and any supporting efforts associated with these impacts, as discussed in Phase 3.³

Scenario 1: Path to Net Zero (Turn 1: Changes from 2022 to 2035)

Positive Impact: Rapid Growth in Wind Development

Impact description: By 2035, leaders in the Gulf region recognized that they were lagging in wind development, and policies and actions were implemented to spur truly clean wind development, using materials (e.g., steel) manufactured with zero emissions of criteria⁴ and hazardous pollutants, not just zero-carbon emissions.

Breakdown and summary of cascading impacts:

• 5 total: Academia/Technical (+1), Community (+1), Governance (+1), and Industry (+2)
• +/-: Positive (3), Negative (1), Uncoded (1)

Other participants identified the following cascading impacts necessary for the aforementioned impact to take place:

• Achieving new technological breakthroughs to ensure truly clean manufacturing
• Changing models for wind area identification to increase proliferation of offshore wind and modifying regulatory restrictions to allow development in new wind areas
• Fostering investment through tax credits and other nonmarket drivers
• Identifying a path that fosters increased vessel construction or issuing waivers for Jones Act⁵ requirements to facilitate development and deployment of wind farms⁶

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³ Note that in several instances, ideas identified in the impact description could be reframed as additional supporting efforts. Also, not all impacts identified have associated supporting efforts.

⁴ The Clean Air Act (42 U.S.C. §7401) requires the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to set National Ambient Air Quality Standards for six pollutants. These “criteria” air pollutants are particulate matter, photochemical oxidants (including ozone), carbon monoxide, lead, sulfur oxides, and nitrogen oxides.

⁵ The Jones Act (46 U.S.C. §55102), Section 27 of the 1920 Merchant Marine Act, generally requires vessels that transport goods between U.S. ports and to structures on the U.S. outer continental shelf to be constructed in the United States owned by U.S. citizens, and crewed by U.S. citizens/permanent residents.

⁶ Although offering waivers for foreign vessels more broadly is one possibility, this solution negatively affects the opportunity for Gulf Coast shipyards to build new vessels to support the industry.

Subsequent impacts resulting from the realization of the aforementioned impact include an increase in public support for and the fostering of new industries. For example, one participant envisioned Louisiana and other industrial communities capitalizing on clean energy development (and the accompanying resources) to redevelop existing polluting industries into those building wind turbine components with a low impact on community health. However, another participant noted that new factories could place additional pressure on existing factories (e.g., on the East Coast, in Alabama) supporting offshore wind that are not net zero.

Supporting efforts: In addition, participants emphasized the need to examine the viability of potential wind farm locations from a cost and competitive standpoint. They also discussed the need to build a roadmap for wind, to ensure that key questions about wind’s potential, wind supply chains, workforce retraining, equitable funding distribution, and local community needs are addressed adequately.

Negative Impact: Insurance Loss

Impact description: It became increasingly difficult for municipalities, businesses, and individuals to get insurance and financing, which hindered investments needed to facilitate the transition and accelerated migration challenges throughout the Gulf region.

Breakdown and summary of cascading impacts:

• 9 total: Academia/Technical (+3), Community (+2), Governance (+2), and Industry (+2)
• +/-: Positive (7), Neutral (1), Negative (1)

One participant linked rising insurance costs to rebuilding in flood-prone areas. This participant stated, “We (as a society) continue to build . . . in areas historically impacted by storms, hurricanes, and flooding. We continue to place people in the ‘eye of the storm’ and then are surprised by the effects.” This participant pointed to the absence of a master plan on community development at the national level. Moreover, another participant identified the need for someone to decide whether some areas should not be rebuilt in the aftermath of disasters because of repetitive risk of future damage or destruction.

Other participants identified cascading impacts oriented around factors affecting insurance premiums. These impacts included the following:

• Seeking ways to better quantify risk and liability, and to improve carbon pricing through equitable monetization
• Monetizing impacts to communities caused by fossil fuel pollution, which contributes to insurance costs, and potentially assessing a fee on oil and gas companies to fund a buydown of insurance for affected states

Participants also identified changes to existing legislation that would increase access to government funding (see Legislative Changes in Table 2-1).

Several participants outlined broader impacts that advanced the energy transition, including the following:

• One participant envisioned that the migration challenges identified in the briefed impact motivated local officials to engage with leaders in renewable energy, marking a major change from previous local policies (such as moratoriums on solar farm development).
• Two others pointed to workforce retraining. For example, one participant envisioned Louisiana developing “a private-sector academic partnership aimed at retraining the state’s energy workforce to build skills needed to compete in the energy transition.”
• One participant described the need for collaboration among industry, renewable energy leaders, developers, academia, and communities to determine a process for creating local buy-in for transitioning to renewables.

Supporting efforts: Participants identified a wide range of supporting efforts, several of which were oriented to facilitating the energy transition more broadly. These efforts include the following:

• Increasing awareness about renewables through education
• Establishing new tax incentives for renewables
• Including renewable energy representatives in government—that is, diversifying local government representation, especially in jurisdictions dominated by oil industry representatives
• Providing funding for flood vulnerability assessments and associated predisaster mitigation planning

Positive Impact: Pipeline Safety

Impact description: Pipeline safety regulations (and technical standards) for new construction and retrofit of existing pipelines were updated, based on the results of research and development (R&D), to optimize safety in transportation

and storage of gaseous and supercritical carbon dioxide, gaseous hydrogen, hydrogen blends in natural gas, ammonia, etc.

Breakdown and summary of cascading impacts:

• 9 total: Academia/Technical (+3), Community (+2), Governance (+0), and Industry (+4)
• +/-: Positive (3), Negative (6)

Several of the cascading impacts focused on training and education, as well as R&D and standards development for pipeline safety. For example, one positive cascading impact concerned how safely transporting new compounds would lead to reevaluation of standards for existing oil and gas pipelines, which now operate well outside their design parameters. However, industry may be affected negatively from a cost standpoint by implementing these new standards. Another participant noted that the focus on pipeline safety regulations and standards for transporting blue hydrogen⁷ and ammonia shifted attention away from the direct impacts of their production on fence-line communities,⁸ further frustrating environmental justice communities.

Participants described the need to assess environmental impacts associated with new pipeline construction and the liquids and gases being transported. One participant pointed to assessment needs as broader than just pipeline safety, viewing energy transition technology and operational changes as having significant impacts on risk profiles across the Gulf region.

Supporting efforts: Participants identified the following strategies to further mitigate pipeline safety concerns:

• Increasing R&D, including research to repurpose existing infrastructure for use in transportation of hydrogen and carbon dioxide
• Examining the possibility of using state workers as a resource to enforce federal regulations
• Decommissioning old pipelines and installing new ones; leaving old infrastructure in place (i.e., not removing it) to minimize damage
• Rethinking zoning in the Gulf region

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⁷ Blue hydrogen is hydrogen fuel produced using natural gas. For additional details on hydrogen production methods, see Department of Energy. n.d. Hydrogen production. https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/production.html (accessed February 28, 2023).

⁸ Fence-line communities are located near industrial facilities, potentially increasing exposure to chemicals among community members over time. The goal of reducing harmful effects on fence-line communities represents a subset of the overall concept of environmental justice. For definitions and resources on environmental justice, see Environmental Protection Agency. 2022. Learn about environmental justice. https://www.epa.gov/environmentaljustice/learn-about-environmental-justice (accessed February 28, 2023).

Positive Impact: Skilled Workers

Impact description: As oil and gas activity slowed, other offshore industries benefitted from the skills, technology, and “offshore culture” developed in the past 70+ years along the Gulf Coast, accelerating their own industry development.

Breakdown and summary of cascading impacts:

• 7 total: Academia/Technical (+3), Community (+2), Governance (+1), and Industry (+1)
• +/-: Positive (3), Negative (4)

One participant expressed confidence that workforce development assistance and funding would allow companies and the workforce to diversify to meet the changes resulting from the energy transition. Some workers (e.g., engineers) might have the skillsets to change positions immediately, whereas others (e.g., skilled workers) might require industry-based certifications.

One participant noted that federal agencies must also retool and train their workforce for the energy transition because they will be regulating industries in both oil and gas and renewables.

More broadly, other participants identified cascading impacts to support a just transition. Examples include the following:

• Cautioning that companies must first fix systemic environmental justice issues or they will be perpetuated in the renewable energy space
• Viewing retraining as an opportunity to train locally and establish corporate headquarters in other locations where economic investment could benefit social justice
• Incorporating justice impact statements, as well as other concepts such as lifecycle assessments, into decision making

Supporting efforts: Participants identified several strategies for supporting workforce transition efforts, including the following:

• Leveraging and expanding existing workforce programs with a focus on renewables
• Increasing information sharing about existing opportunities for training and education
• Addressing indirect workforce needs associated with the energy transition (e.g., scientists to study wildlife impacts)
• Developing a cohesive strategy for linking relevant hydrocarbon knowl

• edge and skills to those required for renewables to facilitate worker transition
• Obtaining details from industry on what skills will be needed
• Developing ideas for retraining the workforce through a collaboration among federal, state, and local stakeholders
• Prompting universities to take action by informing them about workforce needs and convincing them that supporting funds will be available
• Beginning training efforts to develop necessary skillsets earlier (e.g., during high school)

More suggestions in support of a just transition included (1) advocating for local governments to reflect the people that they represent; and (2) leveraging environmental justice programs, such as those established by the Inflation Reduction Act⁹ and initiatives such as the Justice40 Initiative.¹⁰

Scenario 1: Path to Net Zero (Turn 2: Changes from 2036 to 2050)

Positive Impact: Building Innovation

Impact description: The Gulf Coast experience with hurricanes led to improvements in building resilience. Climate change and a focus on justice and enabling people to stay in place spurred innovation in the building sector—based on building research—that kept people safe in heat waves, lowered energy demand, and reduced the total amount of energy infrastructure needed.

Breakdown and summary of cascading impacts:

• 7 total: Academia/Technical (+3), Community (+3), Governance (+0), and Industry (+1)
• +/-: Positive (4), Neutral (2), Negative (1)

One participant noted that industry must prepare appropriately as green building has become the norm. For example, the time required for designing such buildings may be longer, but construction times may be shorter. Industry can also attempt to address any community awareness concerns during the design phase.

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⁹ The White House. 2022. Fact sheet: The Inflation Reduction Act supports workers and families. Press briefing. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/08/19/fact-sheet-the-inflation-reduction-act-supports-workers-and-families (accessed February 28, 2023).

¹⁰ The White House. n.d. Justice40: A whole-of-government initiative. https://www.whitehouse.gov/environmentaljustice/justice40 (accessed February 28, 2023).

Other participants identified the need to update local building codes. One participant focused on basic requirements such as insulation to improve energy efficiency. Another envisioned future building codes requiring green construction and a way to certify buildings as green. A third saw building codes as part of a broader governance model that also included permitting and incentives.

Three participants raised concerns about potential gentrification. Given the motivation of developers to get the highest possible price, one participant pointed to the need to establish strong mandates to ensure the possibility of local ownership (in addition to green building).

Reacting to the initial impact description’s framing around “enabling people to stay in place,” one participant cautioned against encouraging people to live in communities that are not sustainable in the long term.

Supporting efforts: Participants identified the need to ensure that building codes are consistent across the region and, even more broadly, to ensure that codes are enforced. They also spoke to the need for incentives—for example, the establishment of innovative financing mechanisms such as the Sustainable, Energy Efficient, Resilient loan program¹¹ in Atlanta to incentivize landlords to make certain energy efficiency improvements.

Negative Impact: Income Gaps

Impact description: The decision makers still did not reflect the local communities. Hence, gaps of haves and have-nots remained.

Breakdown and summary of cascading impacts:

• 5 total: Academia/Technical (+2), Community (+1), Governance (+1), and Industry (+1)
• +/-: Positive (4), Neutral (1)

All five cascading impacts built on the initial negative impact by focusing on education. As participants noted, education reform provides multiple benefits, including skills for the new energy workforce; better community understanding, engagement, and support for the energy transition; and community empowerment to be problem solvers. Toward this end, one participant envisioned building local- and state-driven agendas on energy education with appropriate governance and metrics. Three others saw this kind of governance and coordina-

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¹¹ Solar Energy Loan Fund. 2023. Loans for landlords. https://solarenergyloanfund.org/loan/seer-loan (accessed February 28, 2023).

tion taking place across all five Gulf states. One of them noted that a five-state vision to be the global energy leader can be a reality, but achieving this reality requires alignment, acknowledgment, and action to enhance K–12 education on energy-related topics, with a strong focus on STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics).

Supporting efforts: Participants noted the need to identify and target critical masses of people for STEM education efforts (e.g., through membership in youth organizations such as the Girl Scouts) and to incorporate STEM learning early on in public schools. They also identified the need to convince students to see the energy sector as one offering jobs and the potential for an enduring career. Moreover, participants stressed the need to communicate to students that access to these careers does not necessarily require a 2- or 4-year college degree.

In addition, participants emphasized the importance of conducting outreach to increase community awareness about and trust in various energy-related opportunities (e.g., weatherization projects, energy assistance, upgrades), and expanding on these opportunities.

Positive Impact: Renavigation of Legacy Zones

Impact description: Legacy groups (military, fishing, oil and gas) operated in certain areas in the Gulf region that are ideal real estate for renewable energy infrastructure. By 2050, the Gulf states and the federal government successfully navigated zoning to optimize energy infrastructure both on- and offshore.

Breakdown and summary of cascading impacts:

• 6 total: Academia/Technical (+3), Community (+1), Governance (+1), and Industry (+1)
• +/-: Positive (3), Neutral (1), Negative (2)

Participants identified several considerations for cascading impacts that involved rezoning:

• Two participants emphasized the development of decision-making frameworks that include communities on the front end, as well as factoring in, or prioritizing, community needs in ways that ensure an equitable transition and undo historic environmental injustices.
• Another participant identified the need to manage rezoning to ensure continued viability of oil and gas needs throughout the transition. However, another participant noted that speed, impact, and inclusion of bridging solutions are at odds as far as an approach to renavigating legacy zones.

• Organizationally, one participant suggested creating committees—comprising federal, state, and local governments; nongovernmental organizations; industry; local representatives; and tribal representatives—to recommend solutions for trade-offs. Similar to other participants, this participant outlined an inclusive process to ensure clear communications on both the impacts and agreed-upon solutions.

In addition, one cascading impact addressed the related issue of legacy infrastructure. Specifically, one participant envisioned a negative impact in which privately owned legacy infrastructure is not appropriately funded during decommissioning, as all funds go to new infrastructure. As a result, major safety and environmental justice issues arise (e.g., exploding pipelines, abandoned and unremediated facilities) and the associated costs disproportionately affect already burdened Gulf communities.

Supporting efforts: None listed.

Positive Impact: Resilient Infrastructure

Impact description: The Gulf Coast became a model for resilient infrastructure to overcome challenges from weather and other events (e.g., cyberattacks).

Breakdown and summary of cascading impacts:

• 5 total: Academia/Technical (+3), Community (+1), Governance (+0), and Industry (+1)
• +/-: Positive (3), Negative (2)

Three of the five cascading impacts addressed additional developments with microgrids. These included the following:

• Establishing national and state-level programs for microgrids
• Implementing policies and oversight to ensure environmental justice and energy equity
• Increasing the number of personnel available to maintain, service, and respond to microgrid issues

As a result of microgrid implementation, fewer deaths—such as heat-related deaths—occur following natural disasters, and mental health outcomes are improved, because microgrids provide power during post-disaster recovery.

More broadly, participants commented on managing the costs of grid infrastructure upgrades and who is responsible for these costs. One noted that the costs cannot fall mostly on rate payers.

Supporting efforts: Participants noted the need to continue with power grid upgrades—that is, to keep evolving the grid. They pointed to addressing the investment risk that leads to slow action and provided the following ideas:

• Working with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to enforce and review whether rates are strict enough
• Providing state and local help to FERC with rate enforcement and review
• Providing federal subsidies for infrastructure upgrades and assistance to potential applicants who need help applying

Scenario 2: Steadying the Transition (Changes from 2022 to 2050)

Negative Impact: Training and Education

Impact description: Training and education programs were negatively affected because of decreases in several sources of funding. For example, state administrators reduced funding for or were reluctant to fund training programs because of the uncertainty about what to focus on. Programs also suffered from the loss of tax revenues and reduced grants (associated with the scenario). As a result, the region experienced a loss of talent. Students lacked interest in oil and gas, and faculty and researchers went elsewhere to pursue their interests in the energy transition. Moreover, the number of women and people of color in fields relevant to the energy transition decreased.

Breakdown and summary of cascading impacts:

• 6 total: Academia/Technical (+1), Community (+1), Governance (+1), and Industry (+3)
• +/-: Negative (6)

Building on the concerns raised in the initial impact, participants emphasized the negative impacts on research and workforce talent, with individuals and startups going to other states and regions, as well as overseas. This movement, in turn, reduces clean energy–related technology development, with economic ramifications for the Gulf region. Meanwhile, the lack of local workforce availability could cause industry to fill these talent needs from elsewhere, eliminating available jobs for locals.

Two participants pointed to the broader ramifications of falling behind in the energy transition, expressing concerns for the future of the United States in the face of global competition.

Supporting efforts: None listed.

Negative Impact: Wildlife Impacts

Impact description: Climate impacts to wildlife and habitats accelerated and negatively affected vulnerable species and ecosystems. Communities reliant on fishing and farming, for example, were left with fewer resources needed to support themselves.

Breakdown and summary of cascading impacts:

• 6 total: Academia/Technical (+2), Community (+1), Governance (+2), and Industry (+1)
• +/-: Negative (6)

Two participants expanded on additional restrictions that could emerge with increasing climate change impacts on wildlife. For example, negative effects on fisheries and fish habitats could lead to more laws and restrictions for a growing number of threatened or endangered species. This, in turn, further affects communities dependent on these resources.

Climate change will also drive changes in property values and ownership. One participant envisioned real estate values skyrocketing for higher ground areas along the Mississippi River, driven by competing demands among industry, agriculture, residents, and commercial businesses to avoid flood-prone, low-lying areas, with industry ultimately being the winners and communities losing out. Another participant expressed concerns that Black farmers, who already struggle to finance and maintain their farms, will be the first to lose their land and livelihood, further deepening racial disparities.

More broadly, one downstream effect arising from reduced economic activity in communities is less funding (and hence opportunity) for education of the energy workforce. This will exacerbate challenges in developing talent and hinder local populations from entering the renewables workforce.

Finally, one participant raised the related issue of oil spills continuing to affect communities negatively, including their economic livelihood.

Supporting efforts: Suggested efforts included more research on drought-resistant farming, revisiting existing subsidies as informed by comprehensive studies

of the potential impacts, and sustained funding for federal government initiatives supporting studies and work along the Mississippi River (e.g., the Mississippi River Restoration and Resilience Initiative).¹²

Participants also identified mitigating strategies for individuals in affected communities. For example, they identified the need to help Black farmers apply for loans. With fewer job opportunities available, another suggestion was to focus on job retraining and counseling for those individuals forced to look for new jobs in order to realign and develop skillsets. But at least one participant acknowledged that these individuals face a tough transition.

To address underlying factors broadly contributing to outcome disparities with the energy transition, participants encouraged more STEM education for all, as well as spreading knowledge about the benefits of renewables on their properties.

Regarding oil spills, participants suggested changing leasing requirements to ensure that oil industry owners are responsible for decommissioning infrastructure and requiring any new technology to have a certain operational lifespan.

Negative Impact: Geothermal Energy

Impact description: Lack of community engagement on the role of geothermal technology resulted in very low adoption of geothermal heat pumps. The Gulf states’ cost of building cooling was double the national average.

Breakdown and summary of cascading impacts:

• 4 total: Academia/Technical (+2), Community (+1), Governance (+0), and Industry (+1)
• +/-: Positive (2), Negative (2)

Two negative impacts associated with the lack of access to affordable cooling (and heating) were increased deaths during heat waves and increased homelessness.

In addition, two participants focused on offshore geothermal resources. One noted opportunities for oil and gas personnel to transfer their skills directly to the drilling of geothermal wells. Alternatively, another participant noted that geothermal workers (in addition to oil and gas workers) could easily repurpose

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¹² The Mississippi River Restoration and Resilience Initiative (MRRRI) refers to a bill that would establish the MRRRI within the EPA’s Mississippi River National Program Office to coordinate inter-agency restoration, management, and protection of the entire Mississippi River Corridor. Mississippi River Restoration and Resilience Initiative of 2021, HR 4202, 117th Cong., 1st sess., https://www.congress.gov/117/bills/hr4202/BILLS-117hr4202ih.pdf.

their skills to support the stronger market for carbon capture and sequestration outlined in the scenario.

Supporting efforts: Participants identified providing heat illness training for health professionals, schools, and coaches; establishing additional cooling centers; financing weatherization in and solar-panel installation on low-income housing; promoting weatherization programs in areas most in need; and incentivizing options for companies that offer lower-cost options for energy as potential supporting efforts.

Negative Impact: Energy Policy Volatility

Impact description: Lack of clear, consistent government policy prevented industry capital investment, which caused waste, inefficiency, unreliable energy, boom/bust cycles, and unsteady employment.

Breakdown and summary of cascading impacts:

• 4 total: Academia/Technical (+2), Community (+0), Governance (+2), and Industry (+0).
• +/-: Positive (1), Negative (3)

Participants expressed mixed outlooks for potential cascading impacts. One noted that, regardless of inconsistent government policy, international pressure from countries that meet net-zero requirements will force U.S. transportation involved in international trade modes (e.g., maritime vessels, air transport) to transform to meet those countries’ requirements to conduct trade with them. Two participants expressed broad concern that energy policy volatility would cause the United States to fall behind other countries, leading to competitive disadvantages for the United States. In contrast, another participant envisioned that the lack of U.S. ambition in reaching net-zero goals would lead to a collapse of international ambition and dampen pressure to decarbonize to meet international goals and laws.

Supporting efforts: No supporting efforts were suggested.

RECURRING THEMES

Data from the workshop were populated into a spreadsheet and imported into the software package NVivo for performing qualitative analysis. Coding of impact descriptions was accomplished in two rounds—an initial round of inductive coding followed by a round of deductive coding.

The following subsections highlight select recurring themes that at least two or more participants addressed during each of the scenario turns. Recurring themes are listed in tables, with individual tables constructed for the positive and negative impacts from each game turn. Each table lists a short title for the recurring theme, a summary of the impacts aligned to that theme, and a bulleted list of any relevant supporting efforts linked to those impacts, as written on the backsides of the impact notecards. Please note that participants did not identify supporting efforts for every impact notecard.

Additional topics that were raised by only a single participant during a turn—sometimes through multiple impact notecards—can be found in Appendix E: Additional Impacts. These are organized by expertise group to facilitate an additional means of topic comparison.

Path to Net Zero (2022–2035): Positive Impacts

Participants identified a total of 58 positive impacts associated with this scenario turn. Table 2-1 lists 10 recurring themes identified from these impacts and their associated supporting efforts.

Path to Net Zero (2022–2035): Negative Impacts

Participants identified a total of 47 negative impacts associated with this scenario turn. Table 2-2 lists 13 recurring themes identified from these impacts and their associated supporting efforts.

Path to Net Zero (2036–2050): Positive Impacts

Participants identified a total of 57 positive impacts associated with this scenario turn. Table 2-3 lists 14 recurring themes identified from these impacts and their associated supporting efforts.

Path to Net Zero (2036–2050): Negative Impacts

Participants identified a total of 25 negative impacts associated with this scenario turn. Table 2-4 lists three recurring themes identified from these impacts and their associated supporting efforts.

TABLE 2-1 Recurring Themes Identified from the Positive Impacts of the Path to Net Zero Scenario (First Turn, 2022–2035)

^a The Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (43 U.S.C. 29 §1331) defines the outer continental shelf as those submerged areas under U.S. jurisdiction lying seaward of state coastal waters. The Act also conveys responsibilities for development of the outer continental shelf. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. n.d. OCS Lands Act history. https://www.boem.gov/oil-gas-energy/leasing/ocs-lands-act-history (accessed February 28, 2023).

^b The Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 (16 U.S.C. §§1451–1465) provides rules for the management of coastal resources under U.S. jurisdiction, including the Great Lakes, with the goal to “preserve, protect, develop, and where possible, to restore or enhance the resources of the nation’s coastal zone.” National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. n.d. Coastal Zone Management Act. https://coast.noaa.gov/czm/act/ (accessed February 28, 2023).

^c National Science Foundation. n.d. Regional innovation engines. https://beta.nsf.gov/funding/initiatives/regional-innovation-engines (accessed February 28, 2023).

TABLE 2-2 Recurring Themes Identified from the Negative Impacts of the Path to Net Zero Scenario (First Turn, 2022–2035)

^a Louisiana’s Community and Technical Colleges. n.d. Reboot your career. https://www.lctcs.edu/rebootyourcareer (accessed February 28, 2023).

TABLE 2-3 Recurring Themes Identified from the Positive Impacts of the Path to Net Zero Scenario (Second Turn, 2036–2050)

^a https://www.ecorise.org (accessed February 28, 2023).

^b https://stemnola.com (accessed February 28, 2023).

TABLE 2-4 Recurring Themes Identified from the Negative Impacts of the Path to Net Zero Scenario (Second Turn, 2036–2050)

^a The Environmental Protection Agency provides technical assistance and funding to communities, states, and tribes, among others, to clean and reuse previously developed and potentially contaminated sites, referred to as brownfields. Environmental Protection Agency. 2023. Brownfields. https://www.epa.gov/brownfields (accessed February 28, 2023).

Steadying the Transition (2022–2050): Positive Impacts

Participants identified a total of 11 positive impacts associated with this scenario. Table 2-5 lists two recurring themes identified from these impacts and their associated supporting efforts.

Steadying the Transition (2022–2050): Negative Impacts

Participants identified a total of 83 negative impacts associated with this scenario. Table 2-6 lists 12 recurring themes identified from these impacts and their associated supporting efforts.

Cross-Comparisons

A comparison of the impacts generated from the two scenarios revealed the following observations:

• The effects of uncertainty on the energy transition. The uncertainty in government commitment and funding to support energy transition initiatives led to several challenges in the Steadying the Transition scenario (e.g., talent attrition, migration) and attempts to preserve the oil and gas industry. As a result, little diversification took place. Unlike the broad range of transition-related developments discussed in the Path to Net Zero scenario (e.g., wind, solar, hydrogen, nuclear, carbon capture), one of the few areas of development that participants discussed in the Steadying the Transition scenario was carbon capture and utilization. Many participants expressed concerns about the resulting ramifications for the Gulf energy workforce in the absence of an alternative to oil and gas.
• International leadership versus international pressure. Mainly in the context of maritime transportation, participants noted that, regardless of the U.S. position on the energy transition, international regulations and requirements for net zero will force U.S. transportation modes (e.g., vessels, air transport) to upgrade or invest in new construction in order to do trade with other countries. In the Path to Net Zero scenario, the United States assumes a leadership role in the energy transition, presenting the International Maritime Organization with a net-zero pathway for foreign vessels doing business with the United States, and all ships calling on U.S. ports are net zero by 2050. In contrast, in the Steadying the Transition scenario, one participant envisioned that the lack of U.S. commitment to the energy transition over the decades would lead to a collapse of international ambition.
• Emergent challenges associated with the rate of change and renewables implementation. The rate of change in the Path to Net Zero scenario can be characterized by the numerous identified impacts addressing

TABLE 2-5 Recurring Themes Identified from the Positive Impacts of the Steadying the Transition Scenario (2022–2050)

TABLE 2-6 Recurring Themes Identified from the Negative Impacts of the Steadying the Transition Scenario (2022–2050)

• technological innovation in the 2035 turn. In contrast, for the Steadying the Transition scenario, one participant envisioned the flight of renewables talent and startups from the region leading to a dearth of new technologies (and economic decline). The rate of change in the Path to Net Zero scenario did raise concerns, particularly in the ability to retrain the workforce to meet energy transition needs. For example, one participant noted that technological advances are taking place at an alarming rate. The ability to train the workforce effectively and efficiently has been a challenge. Participants also identified cases in which renewables activities led to additional pollution (e.g., batteries, hydrogen production). In the 2050 turn, they continued to identify emergent challenges with renewables implementation, leading to a slowdown of progress and a need to rethink regulations and operation.
• The importance of the energy transition as a driver to address other long-standing problems. Participants identified the use of government funds and the momentum behind the energy transition as potential means to address other long-standing problems. For example, they saw the rise of manufacturing to support wind power as an opportunity to repurpose polluting industries to achieve truly clean manufacturing and to address historical environmental injustices. Moreover, participants saw renewables-related technologies as driving grid upgrades. For example, one participant pointed to upgrades to transmission systems to bring in power generated from offshore wind. However, in the Steadying the Transition scenario, even with the failure to commit to renewables, uncertainty surrounding the future led to an unwillingness to invest in projects that replace or update fossil fuel infrastructure, which was already old. As a result, one participant envisioned power outages and lack of access to fuel becoming extremely common, and energy becoming expensive.
• Environmental justice remains a concern, regardless of the scenario. Throughout all turns, participants consistently identified negative impacts associated with environmental justice. In the Path to Net Zero scenario, for example, participants pointed to the need to tie environmental justice considerations to the energy transition and ensure that community needs are given priority in ways that undo historic injustices. As one participant noted, “First fix systemic environmental justice issues, or they will continue in the renewable energy space.” Another pointed to the narrow focus on carbon reduction leading to a failure to address toxic air pollutants, including those generated from renewables activities. Meanwhile, in the absence of significant movement toward renewables, participants painted a grim picture of continuing industrial pollution in environmental justice communities, with health effects exacerbated by climate change and social disparities.

GEOSPATIAL CLUSTERS

Table 2-7 lists the percentage of identified impacts by state. Most impacts were assigned to locations in the states of Louisiana and Texas, which partially reflects the larger number of participants attending the workshop from these states. In addition, 18 percent of the impacts identified were placed offshore in the Gulf of Mexico.¹³

Within Louisiana and Texas, clustering was evident in a few areas. Table 2-8 lists these locations, the number of identified impacts associated with them, a breakdown of the percentage of negative impacts, and a summary of impacts described. Additionally, Table 2-8 provides simple color coding to highlight whether the percentage of negative impacts tabulated was lower (blue) or higher (orange) than the percentage for the overall dataset, in which 53 percent of impacts identified were negative.

TABLE 2-7 Percentage of Identified Impacts by State Across Scenarios

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¹³ Note that several of these impacts appear to discuss topics relevant to the entire Gulf region (e.g., resilience) rather than specific offshore impacts.

TABLE 2-8 Locations with Geospatial Clustering of Identified Impacts