Are People Still Buying Single Family Homes in Fredericksburg?

As we continue to navigate these unprecedented times with social distancing and COVID-19 cases fluctuating up and down, the Northern Virginia real estate market feels largely unaffected. In this article we analyze the real estate data in the area to really understand what is happening.

For this analysis, we compared the real estate data each month in 2020 against its 5-Year Average for that month. This comparison will shed light on how the current market is performing compared against historic performance, while taking into account monthly and seasonal variations.

FREDERICKSBURG NEW LISTINGS:

In Fredericksburg, the new year started out strong with new listings for detached homes in January, February, and March mirroring the 5-Year Average for these corresponding months. As COVID-19 cases in the United States began to rise in late March, the new listings started to taper off, dropping to 76% of the 5-Year average for April new listings, which was also maintained in May, in part, because of the State of Virginia Stay at Home Order.

Table 1: New Listings for Detached Homes in Fredericksburg

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FREDERICKSBURG NEW PENDINGS & CLOSED SALES:

New Pending Sales represent the number of homes that went under contract. Once again, a similar trend was observed, where the months of January and February starting off very strong with the number of homes going off the market higher then the 5-Year Average for those months. In March and April, New Pending sales dropped below the 5-Year Averages, but still very strong in the 90's, before shooting back up to 109% in May 2020. COVID-19 appears to have had very little impact on the number of homes flying off the market. As closed sales lag the New Pendings by about 30 days, we do see the Close Sales closely correlating with the 5-Year Averages.

Table 2: New Pendings for Detached Homes in Fredericksburg

Table 3: Closed Sales for Detached Homes in Fredericksburg

FREDERICKSBURG ACTIVE LISTINGS:

Active Listings represent the available homes on the market. Historically, the summer months of June and July represent the peak availability of homes on the market. The 5-Year Average of active listings for detached homes in June is 682, which is almost double the 5-Year Average for January. With COVID-19, however, we are not seeing the normal supply of new homes coming on the market (See Table 1), resulting in the 317 Active Listings in May 2020 representing only half of the typical housing supply of detached homes. The bottom line is that the supply of detached homes in Fredericksburg is at historic lows.

Table 4: Active Listings for Detached Homes in Fredericksburg

FREDERICKSBURG MEDIAN SOLD PRICE & AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET:

The notable low inventory of homes is supporting a very robust sellers market, maintaining strong home prices and low days on market. In 2020, the median sales price for detached homes peaked at 115% of the 5-Year Average. The median sales price in April and May is still well above the 5-Year Average and holding strong. When the June 2020 data becomes available, it will be very interesting to see if this market cooling trend continues or if the low inventory will continue driving prices up.

When we look at the average days on market, the data is clear that homes continue to fly off the market. Both April and May had average days on market of 22 and 27 days respectively, which is about 10 days faster than their 5-Year averages. With the historic low inventory of homes and strong buyer demand, there would be no reason to believe this trend will dissipate anytime soon.

Table 5: Median Sold Price for Detached Homes in Fredericksburg

Table 6: Average Days on Market for Detached Homes in Fredericksburg

About Peggy Yee

Peggy Yee is a supervising broker at Frankly Realtors and is a local Top Producer. She has sold over $180 million in sales and was one of Northern Virginia Magazine's Top Realtors since 2015. She has been quoted in the Around Reston Magazine, Washington Post, Money Magazine, Consumer Reports, Zillow, Trulia and Realtor.com. Peggy is 100% committed to making your move the best experience possible! Don't just take our word...Click here to see what Peggy's past clients have to say about the experience working with her from Buyer and Seller Video Testimonials and you'll understand why she is one of the top real estate agents in Fredericksburg with dozens of 5 Star Zillow reviews. Click here for Zillow Reviews.

* Data Source: BrightMLS and SmartCharts. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.