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Pacific Northwest Research Station
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Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center

WWETAC develops and communicates the latest scientific understanding of environmental threats to the western United States. We conduct applied science and provide tools and information to help land managers assess and respond to environmental threats, leading to more resilient landscapes.

Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center

The Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center (WWETAC) is administered by the Pacific Northwest Research Station, but it covers the entire western half of the United States. WWETAC collaborates regularly with the Rocky Mountain Research Station and the Pacific Southwest Research Station, Regions 1-6 and 10, as well as with universities and other partners across the West.

WWETAC Overview banner.

Overview

Wildland ecosystems of the western United States are facing a variety of threats, including changing climatic conditions, drought, insect and disease outbreaks, invasive species, and wildfire. 

At the Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center (WWETAC), we work with our partners in research and land management to: 

  • monitor and assess these threats
  • synthesize the latest understanding of their causes and implications
  • develop tools and applications to help agencies, communities, and individuals reduce negative effects and sustain natural resources 
WWETAC Coverage Map

Founded in 2005 along with the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, we are a unit of the USDA Forest Service. WWETAC serves all seven Forest Service regions in the western United States.

Our activities are organized into four focus areas: 

Mission and Objectives 

Our mission is to generate and integrate knowledge and information to provide credible prediction, early detection, and quantitative assessment of environmental threats on forests and rangelands in the western United States. WWETAC's goal is to inform policy and support the management of environmental threats to western wildlands, which include both managed lands and wilderness. Our objectives are to:  

  • Assess risks, uncertainties, and potential effects of environmental stresses on western ecological conditions and socioeconomic values  
  • Evaluate the effects and consequences of multiple, interacting stressors on western forest and rangeland health
  • Provide science-based decision-support tools for policy formulation and land management in the western United States  
  • Provide land managers with credible predictions of potential severe disturbances in the West with sufficient warning to take preventive actions

 

FSim Fact Sheet

The Future of Fire with FSim fact sheet

WWETAC researchers—in collaboration with scientists at Rocky Mountain Research Station and universities—are using FSim to explore how future fire regimes might be impacted by climate change. Learn more by exploring our new fact sheet. 

 

 

 

 

Cover page for PNW-GTR-1001 "Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area, Mount Hood National Forest, and Willamette National Forest"

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Columbia River Gorge, Mount Hood and Willamette National Forests

This is the newest climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) completed by WWETAC which covers three important forests in Oregon and Washington. CCVAs provide land managers and researchers with information necessary to develop climate-informed management actions. To view more climate change vulnerability assessments, see Adaptation Partners’ external website.

 

 

 

Pre-fire prescribed burning, active wildfire, post-fire charred trees

Wildfire Risk and Fuel Management

Uncharacteristically severe wildfire has become one of the biggest threats to western wildlands. As such, WWETAC has conducted wildfire modeling and prioritized research guiding pre-fire planning and post-fire management. Researchers are gathering information on wildfire behavior, drivers of megafires, and historical fire regimes on western landscapes. This information can then be used to project how fire regimes may shift with climate change, and how management may need to adapt to changing conditions.  

Maximum exposure potential (based on simulations) illustrates the relative magnitude of maximum building exposure that could result from an ignition at the given location. Exposure values binned in quantiles so the “Very Low” category accounts for pixels

Evaluation of plausible future community wildfire disasters in western Oregon and Washington: 

This project used simulated wildfire perimeters to measure plausible community wildfire exposure and found that nearly 50 percent of western Oregon and Washington communities are vulnerable to future disasters.

Simulating the impacts of climate change on west-side fire regimes: 

This project simulates wildfire behavior in western Oregon and Washington under a future climate change scenario to provide insight into the plausible range of changes in fire frequency, size, and intensity caused by climate change.

Field crews are collecting thousands of samples like the one pictured to reconstruct tree establishment dates and the exact year of past fires.

Re-evaluating historical fire regimes in west-side forests of the Pacific Northwest: 

This project is developing quantitative knowledge about west-side fire history to inform managers and policy makers on adaptation to future changes in fire activity and climate.

 

Collaborative Postfire Research and Monitoring

This postfire research and monitoring collaboration facilitates shared stewardship by increasing interagency awareness of efforts by various state and federal natural resources agencies to assess and learn from the September 2020 fires in Oregon.

Screenshot of an interactive wildfire evacuation risk map for communities in Oregon and Washington.

Evaluating rural Pacific Northwest towns for wildfire evacuation vulnerability:

This study leveraged a high-resolution spatial dataset of wildfire burn probability and mean fireline intensity to conduct a regional-scale screening of wildfire evacuation vulnerability for 696 rural towns in Oregon and Washington.

SoCal EcoServe map.

SoCal EcoServe: The Southern California Ecosystem Services tool (SoCal EcoServe) generates maps, graphs, and tables of pre- and post-wildfire conditions, which land managers can use to estimate environmental impacts for natural resource damage assessments and prioritize restoration activities.

 

MC2: MC2 simulates global vegetation response to climate change and has been used in crafting management plans for multiple forests in the West and constitute an important tool for long-term planning.

FSim: FSim fire simulator is allowing WWETAC researchers to examine how future fire regimes might change with the impacts of climate change.

ArcFuels: Arc Fuels is a quantitative wildfire risk assessment tool built to streamline fuel management planning.

Northwest Forest Threat Maps: NW Threat Maps is an interactive map covering Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming and shows locations particularly vulnerable to a specific threat or combination of threats. 

FSim Fact Sheet

 

The Future of Fires with FSim fact sheet

Climate change will bring hotter and drier conditions and longer fire seasons. Understanding how fire regimes may change in the future is important for present-day management decisions. Learn how WWETAC researchers are using FSim to explore how future fire regimes might be impacted by climate change.

 

 

Publications

Publications

WWETAC Climate Change: wildfire, flood, drought, invasives

Climate Change 

Climate change is a growing threat to western ecosystems and society. Climate change is expected to be a "threat multiplier" in that it is likely to exacerbate many existing threats to western forests and rangelands, including drought, wildfire, insect outbreaks, and invasive plants.

One of WWETAC's greatest challenges and highest priorities is translating projected climatic conditions into potential effects on western ecosystems, natural resource availability, and the societies dependent on them.

WWETAC staff and others have been systematically reviewing Western states' environmental and socioeconomic conditions in relation to how they might be negatively impacted by projected climatic changes. These vulnerability assessments can be comprehensive or resource specific. Land managers and community planners can benefit from the adaptation strategies and tactics presented in each assessment.

Adaptation Partners map
Photo Credit
adaptationpartners.org

Map of regions examined through Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments by the Adaptation Partners.

Pacific Southwest Region

Intermountain Region

Pacific Northwest Region

Northern Region

Southwestern Region

To view more climate change vulnerability assessments, see Adaptation Partners’ external website or the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments Across the Nation storymap. 

Flows of carbon from the atmosphere to the forest and back. Carbon is stored mostly in live and dead wood as forests grow. From Ryan et al. (2010).

Carbon model assessments and improvements: 

The purpose of this project is to assist managers and policymakers in selecting and running projection models to assess the impact of alternative management approaches on ecosystem and harvested wood products carbon stocks and emissions. 

Simulating the impacts of climate change on west-side fire regimes: 

This project simulates wildfire behavior in western Oregon and Washington under a future climate change scenario to provide insight into the plausible range of changes in fire frequency, size, and intensity caused by climate change.

Four maps of the United States showing PhenoMap outputs for 2005, 2011, 2013, and 2015, with wide variability between years.

PhenoMap: PhenoMap shows the "greenness" of vegetation across the conterminous United States, providing a near real-time assessment of land surface phenology using satellite imagery updated weekly.  

MC2: MC2 simulates global vegetation response to climate change and has been used in crafting management plans for multiple forests in the West and constitute an important tool for long-term planning.

TACCIMO: The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) is a searchable database of scientific journals and published Forest Service environmental impact analysis related to climate and climate effects. 

New features and fact sheets coming soon

WWETAC Climate Change Publications

Publications

WWETAC Insect Focus area- balsam woolly adelgid damage, pine beetle larval mine, Rusty Tussock moth, blister rust

Invasives, Insects & Disease

Invasive species are a threat to forests and rangelands throughout the western United States. Invasive species are those plant and insect species that are not native to the invaded ecosystem and whose introduction likely results in economic or environmental harm or reduced ecosystem integrity. WWETAC prioritizes research on the forefront of invasive species outbreaks and how to effectively manage these novel threats. 

Native insects and disease can cause widescale damage and loss to western wildlands. Understanding the mechanisms behind native insect outbreaks, disease spread, and ecosystem loss is important for managing these threats. WWETAC investigates native insects and pathogens that have reached uncharacteristic or harmful levels (e.g., mountain pine beetle in the Rocky Mountains) to help land managers determine the best way to respond. 

Projects coming soon

Interactive map displaying different seed zones across the United States

Seed Zone Mapper: The Seed Zone WebMap allows users to acquire data on seed zones that is useful in gene conservation, native plant restoration, and plant material development.

 

Northwest Forest Threat Maps: NW Threat Maps is an interactive map covering Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming and shows locations particularly vulnerable to a specific threat or combination of threats. 

WWETAC Invasives, Insects & Disease Publications

Publications

Tools

ArcFuels

WWETAC scientists developed ArcFuels, a quantitative wildfire risk assessment tool built to streamline fuel management planning. The application uses a toolbar in ArcMap that interfaces with stand- to landscape-level forest growth simulations (i.e., FVS) and a fire behavior model (i.e., FlamMap) to aid fuel treatment planning, wildfire behavior modeling, and wildfire risk assessments.

Adaptation Partners and Adaptation Library

Adaptation Partners map
Photo Credit
adaptationpartners.org

Map of regions examined through Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments by the Adaptation Partners.

Information in the Library is derived from climate change vulnerability assessments conducted by Adaptation Partners , which collaborates with a diversity of organizations and stakeholders to develop multi-resource assessments. Adaptation options are intended to inform sustainable management of natural resources, reduce the negative effects of climate change, transition ecosystems to a warmer climate, and help integrate climate change in natural resource management, planning, and business operations of federal land management agencies. These climate change adaptation actions are organized by categories of 1) sensitivity to a particular climate change effect, 2) corresponding strategies to mitigate the impacts of this climate change effect, and 3) specific tactical actions that can take place as an implementation of that particular strategy. 

Forest Plan Database (FP_DECK)

The Forest Plan Database Exchange of Current Knowledge (FP_DECK) is a searchable database of Forest Service land and resource management plans. This allows anyone to conduct a search on individual forest plans or across multiple forest plans based on a topic of interest, such as a management action, a protected resource, or a geographic location.

ForWarn II

ForWarn II provides near real-time tracking of vegetation changes across landscapes in the United States. It is useful for both monitoring disturbances and year-to-year variability. Derived products can also be used to develop insights into seasonal and inter-annual dynamics. ForWarn II was developed and is maintained by WWETAC's sister center, the Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center.

ForWarn II Map for WWETAC

Seed Zone Mapper

Interactive map displaying different seed zones across the United States

A seed zone is an area where plant materials can be transferred with little risk of being poorly adapted to their new location. The Seed Zone WebMap allows users to acquire data on seed zones that is useful in gene conservation, native plant restoration, and plant material development.

 

MC2

WWETAC has supported the continued refinement and application of a model called MC2, which simulates global vegetation response to climate change. MC2 can be customized for a particular region using site-specific information and used to create projections of vegetation change under future climate scenarios. It can further predict vegetative interactions with wildfire and the resulting effects on carbon stocks and water runoff. MC2 simulations have been used in crafting management plans for multiple forests in the West and constitute an important tool for long-term planning. Contact: John Kim

Northwest Forest Threat Maps

Forest Threats is an interactive map covering Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, and Wyoming. The map shows locations particularly vulnerable to a specific threat or combination of threats, including development, wildfire, and insects and disease, or a combination of threats.

NW Forest Threats Map for WWETAC

PhenoMap

Seasonal PhenoCam images of the Prairie Peninsula National Ecological Observation Network (NEON) site, Konza Prairie Biological Station, Kansas. These grass growth and senescence changes are captured by PhenoMap. Photos courtesy of the PhenoCam network.

Satellite imagery updated weekly shows the "greenness" of vegetation across the conterminous United States, providing a near real-time assessment of land surface phenology. Precipitation estimates from the National Weather Service are also displayed. PhenoMap is useful in planning a variety of natural resource activities, such as livestock grazing, seed collection, fuels assessments, and wildlife management.

 

 

Socal EcoServe 

SoCal EcoServe map.

The Southern California Ecosystem Services tool (SoCal EcoServe) allows users to map, quantify, and apply monetary value to ecological benefits derived from the chaparral ecosystems of the Angeles, Cleveland, Los Padres, and San Bernardino National Forests of southern California.

 

TACCIMO

The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) is a searchable database of scientific journals and published Forest Service environmental impact analysis related to climate and climate effects. TACCIMO serves as an ongoing repository of climate research and land management application. Contact Lisa Balduman

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Last updated July 16, 2024