France is heading for 'Frexit in disguise' if National Rally or the far-left see success in Sunday's elections, Macron's allies fear

  • The first round of the election on Sunday propelled Marine Le Pen 's hard right National Rally party closer than ever to government 

France risks a 'Frexit in disguise' if the hard right or left are victorious in the upcoming parliamentary elections, a key ally of Emmanuel Macron has warned.

The first round of the election on Sunday propelled Marine Le Pen's National Rally party closer than ever to government, but also left open the possibility that voters could yet block its path to power in the second and final round on July 7.

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Le Pen's opponents in the left-wing alliance of the New Popular Front, as well as President Macron's weakened centrists, are all seeking to deny the hard right an absolute majority by rallying supporters in high-stakes campaigning this week.

Macron's finance minister Bruno Le Maire, who hails from the centre-right, has ruled out voting for either Le Pen's National Rally or the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, saying both are unacceptable options that would harm the values of France and wreak havoc on the country's economy.

'Let's be clear: the extremes will end European integration, by renegotiating our European contribution on the one hand, by flouting the budgetary rules of the Eurozone on the other,' Le Maire said in a warning to French voters.

'These are two Frexits in disguise'.

Le Pen, meanwhile, accused Macron of mounting an 'administrative coup d'etat' by appointing state officials she claimed would obstruct any government appointed by the National Rally, which could seal a working a working majority in parliament.

France risks a 'Frexit in disguise' if the extreme right or left are victorious in the upcoming parliamentary elections, a key ally of Emmanuel Macron has warned. Pictured: Protests against the hard right are held in Paris on Sunday night
The first round of the election on Sunday propelled Marine Le Pen 's (pictured on Monday) hard-right National Rally party closer than ever to government, but also left open the possibility that voters could yet block its path to power in the second and final round on July 7
Le Pen's opponents in the left-wing alliance of the New Popular Front, as well as President Macron's (pictured on Tuesday) weakened centrists, are all seeking to deny the hard right an absolute majority by rallying supporters in high-stakes campaigning this week

She said it was rumoured that the president was about to name officials 'with the aim of preventing Jordan Bardella (her party's candidate for Prime Minister) from governing the country as he wishes.'

In response to Le Pen's comments, Macron's office told her to 'keep her cool'.

Speaking on Tuesday, meanwhile, Le Pen said Bardella - the star president of France's National Rally - will only take the helm of government if their party wins an absolute majority in Sunday's second round of legislative elections.  

'We cannot accept going into government if we cannot act,' Ms Le Pen said in an interview on Tuesday with public broadcaster France Inter.

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'It would be the worst betrayal of our voters.'  

But Le Pen appeared to row back on these comments saying that the RN would only form a government with an absolute majority of 289 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly, saying it would still try if slightly below this figure.

She said her party would seek to form a government and make her 28-year-old protege Bardella prime minister even with as little as 'for example, 270 deputies', requiring them to find support from another 19 MPs to govern.

'If we then have a majority, then yes, of course, we'll go and do what the voters elected us to do,' she told broadcaster France Inter.

Under Bardella, the National Rally secured the most votes in the first round of the surprise legislative elections on June 30 but not enough to claim overall victory.

The National Rally and its allies could secure a working majority in parliament in the final round on Sunday.

Or they could fall short, stymied at the last hurdle by opponents who still hope to prevent the formation of France's first hard -right government since World War Two.

Both scenarios are fraught with uncertainty for France and its influence in Europe and beyond.

Bardella has sparked concerns from some corners over France's future in the EU by saying wants to reduce its contribution to the bloc by 'two to three billion dollars'.

The left-wing New Popular Front - an alliance of socialists, greens, communists and the LFI party - has backed 'rejecting' EU budget rules.

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With the stakes high and the timeframe compressed, the election has overshadowed preparations for Paris to host the Olympic Games, which open in less than a month.

To block the hard right's ascent, some leftist and centrist candidates who did not win outright in round one but qualified for round two have stepped aside.

Supporters of Marine Le Pen and the hard right National Rally party celebrated on Sunday
Supporters of Marine Le Pen and the hard right National Rally party celebrated on Sunday
Macron's finance minister Bruno Le Maire (pictured) has ruled out voting for either Le Pen's National Rally or the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party, saying both are unacceptable options that would harm the values of France and wreak havoc on the country's economy

Candidates had until 6pm Tuesday to decide whether stay in the race or withdraw.

By Tuesday evening's deadline, more than 210 pro-Macron or left-wing candidates had pulled out of contests in an attempt to prevent the RN winning seats, in what appeared a welcome development for the presidential camp.

By pulling out, opponents of the National Rally might divert votes to other candidates better positioned to beat the hard right on Sunday.

'We have one objective today (and that is) to deny an absolute majority to the National Rally,' said Francois Ruffin of the hard-left France Unbowed party.

If Bardella becomes prime minister, this would create a tense period of 'cohabitation' with Macron, who has vowed to serve out his term until 2027.

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, 35, said late on Monday it 'would be catastrophic for the French' to give the far right an absolute majority. 

On Tuesday, Attal came under pressure from a 22-year-old voter during a campaign stop in Paris who accused the centrist camp of not doing enough to prevent the ascent of Le Pen's party.

'You don't have the right to leave the world to the far-right,' the man told Attal in a tense exchange, adding that people of his generation 'are just starting out in life'.

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Just 76 lawmakers, almost all from the hard right and left were elected outright in the first round of voting at the weekend.

The fate of the remaining 501 seats will be determined in the second round in run-offs between two, three, or in some rare cases, four remaining candidates.

Of the 214 candidates who have decided to quit the race more than 126 are members of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition, which came second in the first round, and 78 represent Macron's camp.

An RN candidate on Tuesday dropped out of the race over a social media post showing her in a cap from the Luftwaffe air force of Nazi Germany, a party official said.

Just 109 three-way or four-way contests will take place on Sunday compared with the 311 that had been foreseen after the first round.

But there has been discord within the presidential camp over backing those NFP candidates who hark from the France Unbowed (LFI) hard-left party.

Several heavyweights in the Macron camp, including Le Maire and former prime minister Edouard Philippe, have argued they should not help candidates from the LFI, which is accused by its critics of extremism and failing to to condemn Hamas after the October 7 attack on Israel.

People gathered on the Place de la Republique to denounce the electoral rise if the hard right party, National Rally after first round elections on Sunday
A demonstrator on the Place de la Republique denounces the hard right

Mr Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called the snap election on June 9, after a stinging defeat at the hands of the National Rally in French voting for the European Parliament.

The deeply unpopular and weakened president gambled that the hard right would not repeat that success when the country's own fate was in the balance.

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But Mr Macron's plan backfired.

He is now accused, even by members of his own camp, of having opened a door for the National Rally by calling voters back to the ballot box, especially when so many are angry over inflation, the cost of living, immigration and at Mr Macron himself.

The hard right tapped into voter frustration with inflation and low incomes and a sense that many French families are being left behind by globalisation.

Ms Le Pen's party campaigned on a platform that promised to raise consumer spending power, slash immigration and take a tougher line on European Union rules.

The National Rally's opponents fear for civil liberties if the party, which has a history of racism, xenophobia, antisemitism and hostility to France's Muslims, takes power.

It plans to boost police powers and curtail the rights of French citizens with dual nationality to work in some defence, security and nuclear-industry jobs.

Mr Macron himself warned that the hard right could set France on a path to civil war.

French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte Macron stand in the voting booth before voting in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, Sunday, June 30, 2024

Most projections in the immediate aftermath of the first round showed the RN falling short of an absolute majority.

Analysts say the most likely outcome is a hung parliament that could lead to months of political paralysis, at a time when France is hosting the Olympic Games.

The chaos also risks damaging the international credibility of Macron, a champion of Ukraine's fight against the Russian invasion who is set to attend a NATO summit in Washington immediately after the vote.

The president has not spoken in public since an EU summit in Brussels on Thursday.

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