It has been nearly eight months since Michigan's national title coronation. Nick Saban has retired, and Jim Harbaugh has left for the NFL (again). Fifteen FBS teams have taken on at least 20 transfers. The Pac-12 is essentially gone. The Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC have expanded to the west. The SEC has incorporated the Red River Rivalry. We've got an actual, honest-to-god tournament to look forward to in a few months.
Rarely has so much of college football's fabric changed in a single offseason. And yet, the Week 1 family reunion will likely feel as good as ever. You can smell it in the air. From Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Georgia vs. Clemson) to Milan Puskar Stadium (Penn State at West Virginia) to Paulson Stadium (Boise State at Georgia Southern) to Washington-Grizzly Stadium (Missouri State at Montana) and everywhere in between, college football feels as college football as ever. More than 60% of Week 1's games are FBS-versus-FCS affairs, we've got only three ranked-versus-ranked games to look forward to, and in this moment it doesn't matter. This weekend, we feast.
We've already seen a Hail Mary miracle coming up 4 yards short (Colorado-NDSU) and accidental fireworks after a missed game-winning field goal (North Carolina-Minnesota). Now it's time to turn on the fire hose. Here's everything you need to know to get ready for Week 1 of the 2024 season. (All times are Eastern.)
Jump to a topic:
Notre Dame-A&M | Clemson-Georgia
USC-LSU | Miami-Florida
Penn State-West Virginia
BC-Florida State | Top-10 blowouts?
Week 1 playlist
A million questions in College Station
No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 20 Texas A&M (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
Notre Dame and Texas A&M have played only five times in their respective histories, all in a window from 1988 to 2001. But they'll face off in what could be the most interesting game of Week 1. These are two of the teams I have the most questions about heading into the fall, and the matchups are such that we'll get a lot of immediate answers.
When Notre Dame has the ball
Is Riley Leonard fully Riley Leonard? Last we saw Leonard, Duke coach Mike Elko was shutting him down for the season after a nasty ankle injury and a case of turf toe. Leonard transferred to Notre Dame and underwent a pair of offseason ankle surgeries, and now he'll face an A&M defense led by ... head coach Mike Elko.
Leonard needs full mobility to be at his best. In his last 13 games before the ankle injury, he threw for 2,698 yards and 16 touchdowns while rushing for 811 yards (not including sacks) and 15 more scores. He scrambles a solid amount and does quite a bit of damage on the run. Is he still fully confident in his running abilities?
Does Leonard have receivers? Irish coach Marcus Freeman brought in three receiver transfers, and two of them -- Kris Mitchell (FIU) and Beaux Collins (Clemson) -- should start Saturday night. Can this duo, tight end Mitchell Evans and some less experienced options give Leonard what he needs?
Does Leonard have a line? True freshman, redshirt freshman, sophomore, sophomore, sophomore. From left to right, that's the line Notre Dame offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock is evidently choosing to roll out for Game 1 at what will surely be a very loud Kyle Field. That's a scary level of inexperience.
Did Elko really need to go that transfer-heavy? Elko inherited a defense loaded with former blue-chippers, but he still chose to bring in 14 defensive transfers (including former Purdue star pass rusher Nic Scourton), and his first starting lineup could feature as many as seven of them.
When Texas A&M has the ball
Is Conner Weigman as good as his small 2023 sample size suggests? Among players with at least 125 dropbacks last season, Weigman ranked third nationally in Total QBR, behind only Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and Oregon's Bo Nix. Of course, he also played in only four games and attempted just 129 dropbacks. Now he has to do that over a larger sample.
Who wins the battle between the Irish secondary and Aggies receiving corps? Notre Dame star cornerback Benjamin Morrison appears to be 100 percent after offseason shoulder surgery, so that's one fear allayed. But after losing four of last year's top six DBs, the Irish will be mixing a pair of transfers -- corner Rod Heard II (Northwestern) and nickel Jordan Clark (Arizona State) -- with relatively untested youngsters such as corner Christian Gray and safety Adon Shuler.
For a Week 1 game, there are major playoff stakes here. A&M will get multiple mulligans thanks to a schedule that features four of the top 11 projected teams (per SP+), but if the Aggies lose this one, they might need to win 10 of their final 11 to secure a spot in the inaugural 12-team playoff field. Notre Dame, meanwhile, has a strangely weak slate with only three projected top-30 opponents, and one of them (Florida State) has already stumbled. If the Irish are stuck in a résumé debate at 10-2, their list of quality wins might not match up with others'. I recommend winning this one.
Current line: A&M -3 | SP+ projection: Irish by 1.8 | FPI projection: Irish by 3.6
Can Clemson still throw a scare into a top team?
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 14 Clemson (Saturday, noon, ABC/ESPN+)
It's one of college football's sneakier rivalries. Georgia and Clemson don't play every year, but when they do, it tends to be a pretty big deal. From 1977 to 1987, they played 11 times, and 10 of the games were within one score. Georgia's 20-16 win in 1980 was an early tone-setter for an eventual national title push; Clemson's 13-3 win the next year was the same for the Tigers' title run. When Georgia won its first title in 41 years in 2021, the Dawgs beat Clemson in a 10-3 rock fight to get it started.
Clemson was a 2.5-point favorite in that one; three years later, the Tigers are two-touchdown underdogs. Georgia, 42-2 over the past three seasons, remains at the top of the game, and only an upset loss to Alabama in the SEC championship game denied it a shot at a third straight national title. Clemson, meanwhile, remains good -- Dabo Swinney's Tigers have finished between 13th and 20th in the AP poll for three straight years.
Sophomores T.J. Parker and Peter Woods should lead another dynamic Clemson defensive line; the linebackers are disruptive; and they could make life tricky for Georgia quarterback Carson Beck as he builds a rapport with new go-to receivers. With UGA's running backs room thinned out a bit -- Roderick Robinson II is doubtful with a toe injury, and Trevor Etienne's status is uncertain after an offseason arrest -- it's conceivable that Clemson could make a good number of stops and keep things interesting.
At some point, though, the Tigers will have to score. How's that going to go? Granted, Georgia's run defense was iffier than usual last year, and Clemson has a good running back in Phil Mafah. But Cade Klubnik ranked just 80th in Total QBR and 107th in yards per dropback last season, and the hire of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley did not bring missing explosiveness back to the Clemson attack. Among the four returning wideouts with at least 10 catches last season, none averaged more than 11.4 yards per catch. With Swinney still allergic to the transfer portal, he'll have to hope sophomore Tyler Brown or blue-chip freshman Bryant Wesco Jr. is ready for a breakthrough. Georgia is figuring out a new cornerback rotation, but the Dawgs get far more benefit of the doubt here.
Clemson is still good and still talented, and with Florida State's Dublin face-plant last week, the Tigers are now betting favorites to win the ACC. So maybe this is the first of two meetings this season. But it's up to the Tigers to prove they're ready to be an actual threat to the No. 1 team again.
Current line: Dawgs -13.5 | SP+ projection: Dawgs by 15.4 | FPI projection: Dawgs by 15.2
A silly Sunday night in Vegas
No. 13 LSU vs. No. 23 USC (Sunday, 7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
On one hand, we don't know that either the LSU or USC defense will deliver what these teams need to reach potential top-10 ceilings. On the other hand, that could mean very entertaining things if the teams' offenses are as good as they should be. A silly, 49-45 style track meet would be a delightful way to all but end Week 1, and I'm hopeful for such an experience.
New defensive coordinators (LSU's Blake Baker, USC's D'Anton Lynn) will at least have a chance to pull one over on new quarterbacks (USC's Miller Moss, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier). But the benefit of the doubt goes to the latter.
Nussmeier, excellent in LSU's bowl win over Wisconsin last year, will lead a Tigers offense that (A) almost has no choice but to regress from last year's Jayden Daniels-driven heights but (B) will still be awfully good. Nussmeier won't have a proven running back, but we'll see whether that matters with a massively experienced offensive line -- maybe the best in college football? -- and a receiving corps that features slot man Kyren Lacy, speedy Liberty transfer CJ Daniels and tight end Mason Taylor.
Considering coach Lincoln Riley's history and recent recruiting, USC's offensive ceiling might be even higher. Moss was similarly excellent in his bowl start last year (against Louisville), and his skill corps is loaded with thrilling sophomores, from slot man (and terrifying return man) Zachariah Branch and 6-foot-6 wideout Duce Robinson to speedy Makai Lemon and running back Quinten Joyner. Riley brought in senior transfers in running back Woody Marks (Mississippi State) and receiver Kyle Ford (UCLA), and I'll be floored if this isn't another top-five offense.
This game could be decided, then, by which defense is more ready. That's probably the one that has Harold Perkins Jr. The LSU junior has more tackles for loss (28.5) than missed tackles (21) in two seasons, and his ceiling is so high that we were disappointed by last year's 15-TFL performance. Baker tends to know how to use aggressive linebackers, and he's as aggressive as they come. However, the Tigers still ranked 52nd in defensive SP+ last year with Perkins, and transfers such as tackle Gio Paez (Wisconsin), corner Jyaire Brown (Ohio State) and safety Jardin Gilbert (Texas A&M) will be asked to make an immediate impact.
Lynn pulled off an incredible one-year turnaround as UCLA's defensive coordinator last season. Doing something similar at USC might make the Trojans title contenders, but he inherits almost no proven entities; he could be starting as many as six or seven transfers (including most of the secondary); and Riley has fielded exactly one top-40 defense in his past six years as a head coach. He bears a major burden of proof, and facing Nussmeier and this attack to start is really jumping into the deep end for Lynn.
Current line: LSU -4.5 | SP+ projection: LSU by 9.2 | FPI projection: LSU by 2.0
Week 1 Existential Dread Bowl
No. 19 Miami at Florida (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN+)
Two in-state rivals desperate for a breakthrough after recent mediocrity: Miami is 19-18 over the past three seasons, and Florida has suffered three straight losing seasons and is 17-24 since Marco Wilson's infamous shoe throw. One coach is on a flaming hot seat; the other is trying to redeem himself after the biggest brain fart of 2023. Miami is facing a "no excuses" year, and Florida is about to take on just about the hardest schedule we've ever seen.
Rarely do you see a Week 1 game featuring so much raw angst. But there's upside here too. Quite a bit of it.
Miami's Mario Cristobal brought in dynamic quarterback Cam Ward (Washington State) and high-stepping running back Damien Martinez (Oregon State) to pair with an experienced receiving corps -- seniors Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George each averaged at least 2.4 yards per route run last season (anything over 2.0 is quite good) -- and a line that returns 53 of last year's 65 starts. The defense returns only four starters, but tackle Rueben Bain Jr. is a star, and Cristobal wasn't shy about bringing in reinforcements from the portal: We could see as many as eight transfers in the rotation. The talent is undeniable, and with Florida State faltering, an ACC title run feels at least slightly more realistic than before. But Miami had talent last year, too, you know?
Amid plenty of missteps last season, Billy Napier's Florida hinted at a high ceiling as well. Quarterback Graham Mertz improved throughout 2023; running back Montrell Johnson Jr. is awesome (and apparently healthy); and seniors Chimere Dike (Wisconsin) and Elijhah Badger (Arizona State) join Eugene Wilson III in a high-upside receiving corps. The line boasts three returning starters and lots of size: The five likely starters average 6-5, 323 pounds. The defense has been inexcusably mediocre of late -- average defensive SP+ ranking over the past four years: 52.5 -- but it was also a very young unit last year and boasts a lot of sophomores and juniors (plus a few transfers in the back) this time around.
The winner of this one will feel pretty good about life on Sunday morning. Miami could be 1-0 and looking at a situation where it's the favorite in every remaining game. Florida could be 1-0 and envisioning a potential 5-0 or 6-1 start before a deluge of huge opponents begins (the Gators' last five opponents are all in the SP+ top 12). The loser, on the other hand, will be aching over missed opportunities and dreading what's to come.
Current line: Miami -2.5 | SP+ projection: Florida by 0.3 | FPI projection: Florida by 3.0
An old rivalry and a top-10 test
No. 8 Penn State at West Virginia (noon, Fox)
By my count, Penn State would have made the College Football Playoff six times in 10 years if it had been a 12-teamer from the start. Granted, Nittany Lions fans would still be finding reasons to be angsty in this alternate universe; after winning the Big Ten title and earning a bye to the quarterfinals in a hypothetical 2016 playoff, they'd have played first-round road games in each of their other five appearances -- at USC in 2017, at Notre Dame in 2018, at Baylor in 2019, and at Ohio State in 2022 and 2023. Still, they'd have earned plenty of tickets to the dance, and they'd likely have won at least a game or two.
In this reality, Penn State could benefit as much as anyone from the playoff's expansion. Per ESPN Analytics, James Franklin's team enters 2024 with a 59% chance of dancing, the fifth-best overall odds. Thanks to the Big Ten's expansion and ditching of divisions, the Nittany Lions avoid Michigan and play only one projected top-20 team, per SP+. The road to a huge win total looks relatively clear if two new coordinator hires -- Andy Kotelnicki on offense, Tom Allen on defense -- stick as well as most of Franklin's previous coordinator hires have.
If there are any growing pains, however, 2024 could start on a pretty sour note. West Virginia is big and physical on offense: Running back CJ Donaldson is 6-2, 238 pounds; the leading returning receiver is 6-7, 255-pound tight end Kole Taylor; and the likely starting line has 80 career starts and averages 6-5, 313. The Mountaineers' defense is retooling a bit, but Milan Puskar Stadium should be particularly fired up -- WVU really doesn't like its old indie rival -- and could cause communication problems for quarterback Drew Allar and the PSU offense. If Nittany Lions backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton get rolling, Penn State should too. But we might learn really quickly whether Allar is ready to pilot a particularly high-upside team to a particularly high-level season.
Current line: PSU -8.5 | SP+ projection: PSU by 13.9 | FPI projection: PSU by 12.4
A suddenly huge Monday night in Tallahassee
Boston College at No. 10 Florida State (Monday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN)
Who doesn't enjoy some nice, strong Monday night angst to end a long weekend?
Dublin is an amazing place that everyone should visit at some point. But if you have any football ambition whatsoever, you should probably just pass on any invitations to play a Week 0 game, much less one in another country. It feels as if only bad things can happen. This year, the underdog covered in all four games involving FBS teams, and over the past four seasons, power-conference underdogs are 3-0 outright in Week 0.
That, of course, includes Florida State's 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech. Upsets happen, and with the 12-team CFP in place, the Seminoles have a mulligan to use in their quest for a spot. But the worst part about last week's loss wasn't that their playoff hopes were wounded; it's that they didn't even slightly look like a playoff team.
Success rate -- how frequently you're gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second or 100% on third or fourth -- is about the most reliable and predictive measure I know of in this sport. Georgia Tech racked up a 55% success rate to FSU's 41%. FSU's defensive front was supposed to be a major strength, but the Noles got pushed around all evening. And with quarterback DJ Uiagalelei's nibbling passing, FSU was short on big plays as well. The Noles were actually lucky to be tied before Tech's last-second field goal.
The path back to respectability begins Monday night with a visit from Boston College. The Eagles probably don't have the defense to pull an upset here, but first-year coach Bill O'Brien could craft an interesting offense with run-heavy quarterback Thomas Castellanos, running backs Kye Robichaux and Treshaun Ward (at one time an FSU rusher), and a big offensive line. If nothing else, we'll learn whether Tech's line domination last week was more because of Tech or FSU.
Current line: FSU -17 | SP+ projection: Noles by 19.6 | FPI projection: Noles by 14.5
What to learn from top-10 blowouts
While Georgia and Notre Dame are taking on strong tests, most of the teams in the AP top 10 are doing the opposite. Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Alabama and Michigan, for instance, are favored by more than 25 combined touchdowns over mid-major or FCS foes. If we get even one close game from this set, it would be a surprise.
If you've read these columns long enough, however, you probably know what I'm going to say next: We can still learn something from these games! It's our first glance at these important teams after nearly eight months of talking about them, and we can at least get slivers of answers to some important questions. Here's one for each likely blowout.
How does the Buckeyes' passing game look?
Akron at No. 2 Ohio State (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBS)
We've talked about new starting quarterback (and Kansas State transfer) Will Howard all offseason. He's probably the most important player of the season. If he's awesome against Akron, that probably doesn't say much; if he isn't, well, that might.
Current line: Buckeyes -49.5 | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 55.5 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 40.4
What about Oregon's defensive line?
Idaho at No. 3 Oregon (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., BTN)
We're rekindling an old Pacific Coast Conference rivalry with this one! Idaho probably won't be able to keep up with Oregon for 60 minutes (or 30, even), but the Vandals are physical and experienced and could make Oregon's defensive line -- with four of last year's top five gone -- work a bit.
SP+ projection: Ducks by 43.0 | FPI projection: Ducks by 49.2
And Texas' remodeled secondary?
Colorado State at No. 4 Texas (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN)
This game will mainly be a showcase for Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers and the rather new Texas skill corps. But the Longhorns could start a couple of transfers and a couple of sophomores in the secondary, and with Colorado State quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi slinging to 1,100-yard receiver Tory Horton, we'll find out whether the UT DBs are ready.
Current line: Longhorns -32.5 | SP+ projection: Longhorns by 40.8 | FPI projection: Longhorns by 36.2
How sharp is Jalen Milroe?
Western Kentucky at No. 5 Alabama (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN)
Few quarterbacks bring as many clear strengths (rushing, deep passing) and weaknesses (sacks, intermediate passing) to the table as Alabama's returning starting QB. New Bama head coach Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan have a QB-friendly track record. What kinks can they iron out? (And can the Hilltoppers do anything to frustrate him?)
Current line: Bama -31.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 31.9 | FPI projection: Bama by 34.5
Can Michigan, um, throw?
Fresno State at No. 9 Michigan (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., NBC)
New head coach (Sherrone Moore), new offensive coordinator (Kirk Campbell), new starting QB (Alex Orji, probably), new starting running back and wide receivers, totally new offensive line. Everything about the Michigan offense is new, new, new. We assume Donovan Edwards will find some rushing success, but the most interesting downs in this game will be second-and-long and third-and-long. How will Orji (or former walk-on Davis Warren) look in those situations?
Current line: Wolverines -21.5 | SP+ projection: Wolverines by 27.6 | FPI projection: Wolverines by 20.7
Week 1 superfecta
I enjoy reminders that college football chaos is never too far from the surface. Although SP+ isn't projecting any massive surprises or upsets in Week 1, win probabilities are your friend. SP+ gives Georgia (83% over Clemson), Penn State (81% over West Virginia), Oklahoma State (80% over South Dakota State) and Florida State (89% over Boston College) comfortable odds of winning their Week 1 battles ... but mash those all together, and there's only a 48% chance that all four win. Which do you think is the most likely team to get upset?
My guess: Penn State. The Nittany Lions could genuinely be playoff-level awesome this year, but they have two new coordinators, and West Virginia is a testy, physical team and a former indie rival. The Week 1 "surprise" potential feels pretty high.
Week 1 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from informational and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Temple at No. 16 Oklahoma (7 p.m., ESPN). Oklahoma ranks third nationally in SP+ strength of schedule this year, but it's an incredibly back-loaded slate. The Sooners will be comfortable favorites in each of their first three games, especially this one. Still, this will be a good time to check in on quarterback Jackson Arnold and an experienced defense that could be OU's best in 15 years.
Current line: OU -42.5 | SP+ projection: OU by 44.2 | FPI projection: OU by 40.1
TCU at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN). Few teams lose buzz faster than TCU did in 2023, following up a national title game appearance with a 5-7 dud. It sure seems as if the Horned Frogs have the weapons to rebound this year (at least, if a new O-line holds up), but they start with an awkward road trip and a game against a Stanford team that is loaded with experience (but questionable in the talent department).
Current line: TCU -9.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 9.7 | FPI projection: TCU by 3.0
Early Saturday
Virginia Tech at Vanderbilt (noon, ESPN). To turn around a flagging program, Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea brought in former New Mexico State coach Jerry Kill and a number of Aggies transfers. The Commodores are probably going to be tricky and ultra-physical, but we'll see whether they have enough actual talent to damage a dynamic and ridiculously experienced Virginia Tech team.
Current line: Hokies -13 | SP+ projection: Hokies by 14.2 | FPI projection: Hokies by 3.1
Saturday afternoon
South Dakota State at No. 17 Oklahoma State (2 p.m., ESPN+). Last year's SDSU team was one of the best FCS squads of all time. It was also ridiculously experienced. The Jackrabbits still have quarterback Mark Gronowski and aren't starting from scratch, but OSU has one of the most experienced teams in the country and should be able to match SDSU's physicality. Should. We'll see.
Current line: OSU -10 | SP+ projection: OSU by 13.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 19.1
Miami (Ohio) at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN). These were basically the same teams last year. Northwestern was 112th in offensive SP+ and 18th in defensive SP+; Miami was 113th and 12th, respectively. Both defenses return a good amount of experience. Miami returns its starting quarterback (Brett Gabbert), but Northwestern has the experience advantage elsewhere on O. This feels very even, and it's a huge game for Miami's CFP hopes.
Isn't it fun talking about Miami (Ohio)'s CFP hopes?
Current line: Northwestern -2.5 | SP+ projection: Northwestern by 3.7 | FPI projection: Northwestern by 8.2
Boise State at Georgia Southern (4 p.m., ESPNU). One of the models of the Group of 5 universe visiting one of the great G5 venues (Georgia Southern's Paulson Stadium)? Everything about this matchup rules. We'll find out very quickly whether quarterback Maddux Madsen, star running back Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos can handle a hostile environment. (We'll also find out whether Georgia Southern has a defense. It's been a few years since that was the case.)
Current line: BSU -13 | SP+ projection: BSU by 15.7 | FPI projection: BSU by 6.3
Saturday evening
UNLV at Houston (7 p.m., FS1). Willie Fritz, finally a power-conference head coach, is taking on a rebuild at Houston; he has lots of interesting athletes and newcomers, but we don't know whether they fit together yet. Meanwhile, Barry Odom's UNLV squad is coming off a historic season and should again have a hell of an offense; the defense, also loaded with newcomers, is a question mark. This could be a fireworks show.
Current line: Houston -1 | SP+ projection: Houston by 4.4 | FPI projection: Houston by 5.6
UCLA at Hawai'i (7:30 p.m., CBS). SP+ seems to trust new UCLA coach DeShaun Foster, quarterback Ethan Garbers and defensive tackle Jay Toia to a degree, ranking the Bruins in the top 40. But poll voters don't think much of them (and, to be honest, neither do I). We'll see who's right. They'll probably handle Hawai'i, but we'll see how good they look doing it.
Current line: UCLA -14 | SP+ projection: UCLA by 18.6 | FPI projection: UCLA by 14.5
Georgia State at Georgia Tech (8 p.m., ACCN). America's new darling returns from Ireland, having ruined Florida State's overseas trip (and possibly its season), to host a Georgia State team undergoing massive change. With a win, Haynes King and the physical Yellow Jackets will probably be ranked heading into Week 2.
Current line: Tech -21.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 17.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 12.2
Late Saturday
Wyoming at Arizona State (10:30 p.m., FS1). Kenny Dillingham's Sun Devils are a mystery this year; they could be starting 8-10 new transfers, and their potential variance is pretty high. Wyoming, meanwhile, hired Jay Sawvel specifically to continue the physical, high-floor/low-ceiling identity the now-retired Craig Bohl brought to the table. This is perfect late-Saturday content.
Current line: ASU -6.5 | SP+ projection: ASU by 6.5 | FPI projection: ASU by 9.9
New Mexico at No. 21 Arizona (10:30 p.m., ESPN). From a statistical standpoint, I can tell you teams that surge out of nowhere and then lose their head coach are in danger of a quick drop back to reality. But with quarterback Noah Fifita, receiver Tetairoa McMillan, corner Tacario Davis and others, it sure seems as if Arizona has the star power to make a Big 12 run this year. If so, the Wildcats will manhandle New Mexico.
Current line: Arizona -31 | SP+ projection: Arizona by 32.5 | FPI projection: Arizona by 25.7
Smaller-school showcase
As always, we save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track for maximum Week 1 enjoyment.
FCS: South Carolina State at No. 25 Florida A&M (Saturday, 6 p.m., ESPN+). FAMU is already 1-for-1 in the "wild games" category. The defending Celebration Bowl champs needed a 2-point-conversion stop and a six-minute, game-clinching drive to avoid an upset against Norfolk State in Week 0; now the Rattlers welcome another former MEAC rival, S.C. State (the 2021 Celebration Bowl champ), to open the home schedule. SP+ projection: FAMU by 14.6.
Division II: No. 3 Ferris State at No. 6 Pittsburg State (Saturday, 8:05 p.m., MIAA Network). Two losses to rival Grand Valley State wrecked Ferris State's 2023 season, but with quarterback Carson Gulker & Co., the Bulldogs should be awesome once again. Meanwhile, Pittsburg State has had its season ended by either Ferris or Grand Valley in the past two Division II playoffs. Early revenge opportunity! SP+ projection: Ferris by 3.1.
FCS: Missouri State at No. 3 Montana (Saturday, 9 p.m., ESPN+). What's harder than playing in the Missouri Valley? Playing in the Missouri Valley and facing Montana in nonconference play. Missouri State gets respect for aiming high, and the Bears were a top-40-level team despite last year's 4-7 record, but one assumes the Grizzlies, opening at home after last year's run to the FCS title game, will hold enough advantages here. SP+ projection: Montana by 12.5.