The start of a new MLB season is all about what has changed since we've last seen these teams -- and wow, what an opening weekend it was for new faces in new places.
In his first game for his new team, Corbin Burnes had 11 strikeouts, the most by a Baltimore Orioles pitcher on Opening Day since 1998. Yoshinobu Yamamoto rebounded from that disastrous first start for the Los Angeles Dodgers in South Korea to toss five scoreless innings against the St. Louis Cardinals (only to have a rare Dodger Stadium rain delay shorten his outing). New San Francisco Giants center fielder Jung Hoo Lee blasted a home run and hit .286 with more walks than strikeouts in his first four games. Rookies Wyatt Langford of the Texas Rangers and Jackson Chourio of the Milwaukee Brewers flashed their potential. Boston Red Sox right fielder Tyler O'Neill set a record by hitting a home run for the fifth consecutive Opening Day.
Maybe the biggest takeaway from the weekend: Juan Soto was absolutely dazzling in his New York Yankees debut. The Yankees went to the Houston Astros and swept them in four games -- with all four go-ahead runs coming in the seventh inning or later.
Opening weekend is a blast of baseball action, so let's go through and dig into some initial observations, starting with Soto.
Welcome to New York, Mr. Soto
There used to be a running joke about which Yankees players qualified as a "True Yankee." This peaked a couple of decades ago, during the height of the Yankees' success in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
I hadn't thought of that term in years, but I came across it again a couple of days ago in reference to Soto -- before his heroics on Saturday and Sunday. It might have taken Soto just four games to earn his official True Yankee stripes -- maybe the quickest in Yankees history since Paul O'Neill kicked a Gatorade cooler in his third game in 1993.
Just to recap Soto's first four games, in case you missed them:
Game 1: Threw out the potential tying run at the plate in the bottom of the ninth inning to preserve a 5-4 victory. To be honest, it wasn't that difficult of a throw and was a little behind catcher Jose Trevino, who made an outstanding tag, but a game-winning assist is a game-winning assist. He also went 1-for-3 with two walks and an RBI.
Game 2: Went 3-for-4 with a walk, including a go-ahead bases-loaded walk in the seventh inning.
Game 3: Hit the go-ahead home run off Bryan Abreu in the seventh inning, a screaming liner to left field that is probably a home run only in Houston but looks like a 500-foot blast in the box score.
Game 4: Went 3-for-5 and knocked in the winning run with a two-out base hit to left field in the ninth inning off Josh Hader.
In other words: Soto made the key play, hit or walk in all four games. Just an incredible weekend. Alex Verdugo closed out the sweep on Sunday with a game-ending diving catch in left field with two runners on base. For a team staring at two months without Gerrit Cole, it's a confidence-building start. Soto, batting in front of Aaron Judge, turns a mediocre lineup into a good one all by himself. He adds a swagger that the Yankees seemingly lacked last season -- and the .529 batting average and .600 OBP help. But it's also evidence that having that Soto-Judge duo is going to be a nightmare for pitchers. I still don't know if it's a great lineup, but it's going to be better than it was in 2023. Kudos as well to the bullpen, which helped cover for the starting pitching by tossing 13⅔ scoreless innings.
That was in contrast to the Houston bullpen, which was supposed to be a strength with Hader, Abreu and Ryan Pressly. Instead, Astros relievers allowed 14 runs in 15⅔ innings and earned the loss in all four games. I wouldn't worry too much about that trio just yet, but the depth of the bullpen could be an issue (and the starters certainly didn't help by getting knocked out early -- Framber Valdez walked six batters on Opening Day and Hunter Brown lasted just four innings with an inefficient 88 pitches on Saturday).
As always, the first rule of opening weekend is not to overreact to opening weekend. Don't tell that to Astros fans, who are probably already in a state of panic.
Phillies win earliest must-win game of 2024
This season's other marquee opening series was Atlanta Braves-Philadelphia Phillies, and while the above headline should be read in a mock-exaggerated voice, the Phillies' broadcast was certainly treating Sunday's game as something more important than the typical third game of the season. The Braves had destroyed the Phillies 9-3 and 12-4 in the first two games: They scored nine runs off the Philadelphia bullpen after Zack Wheeler outdueled Spencer Strider on Friday, and then knocked around Aaron Nola for 12 hits and seven runs -- the most hits Nola had ever allowed in a game -- on Saturday.
The Phillies have gotten off to slow starts the past two seasons. Last year, they were 4-9 after 13 games and 25-32 as late as June 2. The year before, then-manager Joe Girardi got fired after a 22-29 start. And if the Phillies want to battle the Braves for the National League East regular-season title, they need to play better the first two months.
So on Sunday, the Phillies rallied for three runs in the seventh inning, with Alec Bohm's two-out, two-run single glancing off the glove of a diving Adam Duvall for the winning hit. Maybe it doesn't mean a whole lot; after all, the Phillies will never lack for confidence, plus they've had the Braves' number the past two postseasons. Still, we'd all love to see a closer NL East race this season.
(Side note: I picked Wheeler over Strider as my Cy Young pick. After one start, I'll stick with that selection.)
Small sample size warning: Offense is up!
OK, I gave you the warning, but ... leaguewide numbers heading into the Sunday night Cardinals-Dodgers game:
2024: .253/.327/.408, 5.05 runs per game, 0.69 SB per game
2023: .248/.320/.414, 4.62 runs per game, 0.72 SB per game
It felt like there were an abnormal number of high-scoring games this weekend, and sure enough, runs per game are up significantly from 2023 -- MLB teams haven't averaged five runs per game since the peak of the steroids era back in 2000. It appears, though, that's mostly due to an unsustainable high average with runners in scoring position, rather than any real change in offense. Teams were hitting .284/.363/.431 with RISP heading into "Sunday Night Baseball," compared to .256/.337/.418 last season. So as that number regresses, the runs-per-game figure will drop.
Still, with so many top starters injured or not ramped up -- Cole, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Kyle Bradish, Eury Perez, Kodai Senga, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery -- it's probably not a surprise that offense was up from what we might expect early in the season, despite the cold weather that helps to deflate offense.
Stolen base rates are on par with last season. I'll be curious to see if that number increases at all: The success rate remains close to 80%.
Cubs, Twins impacted by injuries
We unfortunately saw two significant injuries on Opening Day: Chicago Cubs starter Justin Steele and Minnesota Twins third baseman Royce Lewis.
Steele, who had been shutting down the high-powered Texas offense, strained a hamstring fielding a bunt. He'll miss at least April, but the Cubs were encouraged by an MRI that revealed a Grade 1 strain, and Steele ended up playing catch on Saturday. Ben Brown was called up to the roster, but he allowed six runs in relief in his major league debut. That will undoubtedly remove him as a possible Steele replacement; that probably now goes to Drew Smyly.
If it's just a month, the Cubs will be OK, but it points to the same issue nearly every team has: How much rotation depth do you need to have? Brown was supposed to be an option, but who knows after that rough debut. Top prospect Cade Horton is another possibility down the road, but he has only 27 innings above High-A. Smyly had a 5.00 ERA last season and gives up a lot of home runs. Suddenly, there is added pressure on Shota Imanaga, who will make his MLB debut in the Cubs' home opener on Monday against the Colorado Rockies.
Lewis, meanwhile, went on the injured list after suffering a significant quad strain while running the bases, and the Twins are preparing to be without him for more than a month. Lewis, who suffered two torn ACLs in the minors plus oblique and hamstring injuries last season as a rookie, had been penciled in as the No. 3 hitter in the lineup after his breakout 58-game stint in 2023 in which he hit 15 home runs and slugged .548. He looks like a potential star -- if he can stay on the field. This is why I was skeptical of the Twins winning the AL Central again: They were counting on Lewis and Byron Buxton to stay healthy, and one is already injured.
Two young starting pitchers to watch
Several American League Cy Young contenders had strong debuts -- Burnes fanned 11 in six innings while allowing just one hit (a Mike Trout home run) for the Orioles, Tarik Skubal tossed six scoreless frames for the Detroit Tigers, and George Kirby and Logan Gilbert of the Seattle Mariners shut down the Red Sox. But maybe the two most impressive outings of the weekend came from the Dodgers' Bobby Miller and the Pittsburgh Pirates' Jared Jones, who made his major league debut and struck out 10 batters.
Miller is coming off a solid rookie season and I think he's a strong breakout candidate, although the various projection systems don't forecast much improvement. He throws 99 mph, has continued to improve his control and has a wide variety of pitches to complement his heater. Against the Cardinals, he struck out 11 in six innings, allowing just two singles -- one of which was a soft blooper -- and one walk.
The knock against him, if we want to nitpick, is that his four-seamer doesn't generate a ton of swing-and-miss. Even against the Cardinals, he induced just nine whiffs out of 93 pitches, which isn't a big number, and only four of those came on the four-seamer (out of 39 pitches). So far in his major league career, though, hitters haven't been able to do much damage against the four-seamer even when they do make contact. Plus, what gives Miller so much upside is he mixes in a changeup, curveball, slider and sinker. The Cardinals had no clue how to attack him, and six of their 11 strikeouts were looking -- three of those on four-seamers as they looked for something off-speed with two strikes.
Jones, Kiley McDaniel's No. 53 prospect, was a minor surprise in cracking Pittsburgh's opening rotation, especially with the more highly touted Paul Skenes starting the season in the minors. Jones doesn't throw 100 mph like Skenes, but he allowed no earned runs in 16 innings in spring training, and he throws plenty hard enough, averaging 97 mph on his fastball in his start against the Miami Marlins. He fanned 10 in 5⅔ innings, with 22 swings-and-misses out of 89 pitches. That's more than any Pirates starter has had in a game since Tyler Anderson also had 22 in a 2021 start.
Jones mostly relied on his fastball and slider, mixing in six curveballs and five changeups, but he might not need much more than those two pitches right now, at least based on this game. Yes, it came against the Marlins and the Marlins' offense looks pretty weak, but that's an impressive whiff total: Only 54 times did a starter have more misses in a game last season (10 of those were by Strider). That's a heck of a debut. Start dreaming of that Skenes-Jones duo, Pirates fans.
Your new-look Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox finished 78-84 the past two seasons, but beyond that mediocrity, they weren't even that interesting. That's a double strike for Red Sox Nation, which expects good teams and exciting teams.
The 2021 team that reached the American League Championship Series was kind of a typical Red Sox team: It slugged a lot of home runs and led the American League in runs scored. But this year's Red Sox are something unlike any Red Sox team we've seen in ... well, maybe forever. They have speed up and down the lineup and flashed that in splitting four games in Seattle:
Rookie center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela can run, and all reports indicate he will be a Gold Glove candidate. He turned a double into a triple with his speed in one game and made a diving catch to save a run in another.
Jarren Duran, who is sliding over to left field with the addition of Rafaela, ranked in the 96th percentile in sprint speed last year.
O'Neill, the Red Sox's new right fielder, is built like Mr. Olympia, but he ranked in the 80th percentile in speed and is a former Gold Glove winner.
Trevor Story is still one of the fastest players in the league (86th percentile last year).
Heck, even catcher Connor Wong beat out a bunt for a base hit.
When the Red Sox won the World Series in 2018, they had that great outfield defense with Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi. I'm not going to say this outfield defense will be better than that one, but it has a chance to be really good. On offense, though, both Rafaela and O'Neill -- who has struggled while battling injuries the past two years -- will have to hit.
The rotation will ultimately determine how good this team is, but Nick Pivetta fanned 10 on Friday, and Kutter Crawford, with his cutter-sweeper combo, gave the Mariners fits on Saturday. Now, Seattle in late March isn't exactly the best place to hit, so we'll need a larger sample size -- I don't know if Crawford, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck can be effective over 150 innings -- but at the minimum, this looks like a team that fans will enjoy watching.
New year, same old Mets
That was an ugly three-game series for the New York Mets against the Brewers, kind of the opposite of Soto and the crosstown Yankees.
Friday: The Mets had just one hit, but that might have been overshadowed by the benches-clearing incident after Jeff McNeil got upset with a hard -- but legal -- slide from Mets enemy Rhys Hoskins. (That rivalry goes back to his Phillies days, when a Mets rookie named Jacob Rhame threw a fastball behind Hoskins' head and then Hoskins homered a few days later off Rhame and took a 34-second trot around the bases.)
Saturday: Hoskins had three hits, including a home run, when Mets reliever Yohan Ramirez threw behind him in the seventh inning. The benches didn't empty, but Ramirez was tossed from the game and suspended for three games. New Mets manager Carlos Mendoza received a one-game suspension, which he served Sunday. More problematic, though: Luis Severino, coming off a bad year with the Yankees in 2023, allowed 12 hits and six runs in five innings. His stuff just doesn't have the same pop it once did. Again, we don't want to overreact here, but if the Mets are to do anything this season, Severino has to be at least decent. He wasn't in his first start.
Sunday: The Brewers won 4-1 to complete the sweep. Mets pitchers issued six walks.
Chourio had a nice first weekend in the majors for Milwaukee, going 5-for-12 and showing off his speed and defense on Sunday with an infield hit and two outstanding catches in right field. It was a good start for the Brewers, who will try to ride good defense and a good bullpen, as always.
Finally ... the bad teams look really bad
On Opening Day, the Arizona Diamondbacks scored a record-breaking 14 runs in the third inning against the Rockies -- the most ever in one inning on Opening Day. It was pretty incredible: The D-backs didn't hit a single home run in the inning. There was one seeing-eye grounder up the middle and one flare, but most of the hits were solid line drives, one after another.
The point: The Rockies are not good. But they're going to have company in the race for the bottom. The Chicago White Sox ran out an Opening Day lineup with Paul DeJong, Kevin Pillar, Martin Maldonado and Nicky Lopez hitting sixth through ninth. Look, those are all respected veterans and they were brought in for their defense, but ... man, the White Sox are not going to score many runs this year -- they lost all three games to the Tigers. The Oakland Athletics, meanwhile, went 1-3 against the Cleveland Guardians, getting outscored 29-11. I don't know if I'd put the Washington Nationals in the "really bad" group, but on Saturday they lined up with Jesse Winker in left field and Eddie Rosario in center field. Ouch.
(I don't want to put the Marlins in this category just yet, but given all the injuries to their rotation and that dismal 0-4 start against the Pirates -- including two extra-inning losses -- they might play themselves into this cellar-dweller group as well.)
Still, though, what a fun first weekend of baseball ... and we didn't even mention Betts' four home runs and 10 RBIs! What a start for baseball.