NFL trading season is already in full effect. In the past couple of weeks, we've seen cornerback J.C. Jackson, running back Cam Akers, wide receiver Chase Claypool and edge rusher Randy Gregory all change teams. Wideout Van Jefferson joined them on Wednesday. A common thread through each of those moves? Teams willing to give up disappointing veterans for late-round picks.
We'll see more of these trades in the weeks to come, but the fast-arriving trade deadline of Oct. 31 forces teams to declare their hands and plan accordingly. The undefeated 49ers and Eagles probably know they need to stock up for January and February, while the winless Panthers and one-win Patriots can probably start booking their winter vacations; but the teams in between need to decide whether they want to be trying to acquire talent or attempting to amass draft capital before Halloween.
I can't help teams decide whether they want to add or subtract players at the trade deadline, but let's try to play matchmaker anyway. I've gone through every NFL roster, identified weaknesses and found players who could make sense across 15 viable swaps. Some of these moves are player-for-player deals, but most are like those we've seen so far this season, in which teams have given up players off the back half of their roster for late-round picks.
The goal here is to be realistic as opposed to putting together the biggest names in a series of trades, so you won't be seeing Kirk Cousins (who has a no-trade clause) or Matthew Stafford (who would cost the Rams $74 million in dead money). Less notable moves can still be valuable, though: Remember that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl last season with a handful of significant snaps from Kadarius Toney, who caught a touchdown pass and ran a punt back inside the 10-yard line to set up a second score. They acquired Toney from the Giants last October for two draft picks.
Here are 15 attempts to try to land a player who could help swing a Super Bowl, if ever so slightly, toward a handful of contenders around the NFL (in no order):
Jump to an intriguing trade candidate:
Marquise Brown | James Conner
Dalvin Cook | Zach Ertz
Danielle Hunter | Jerry Jeudy
Trey Lance | Hunter Renfrow
A swap of strengths for Chiefs and Jets
Chiefs get: EDGE Carl Lawson
Jets get: OT Lucas Niang, 2024 sixth-round pick
Once a prized free agency signing for the Jets in 2021, Lawson's tenure in New York has been marred by a torn left Achilles tendon that cost the former Bengals standout all of that season. He had seven sacks and 24 knockdowns in his return to the lineup last season, but after the Jets used back-to-back first-round picks on defensive linemen over the past two drafts, he has been buried on the depth chart. The team has alluded to a back injury Lawson suffered during camp, but the 28-year-old has played just 52 snaps all season, and he was scratched for Sunday's win over the Broncos.
Lawson's contract would be $780,000 over the remainder of 2023, which would make him an appealing option to a Chiefs team that has gone with younger options on the edge. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will hope their own consecutive first-round picks -- George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah -- will come good, but no contender ever says it has too many pass-rushers. Lawson's contract would be an affordable option for the Chiefs, who will probably add an edge rusher between now and the start of the postseason.
Niang would be a flier on the offensive line for the Jets, who are falling apart up front. Duane Brown is on injured reserve after suffering a hip injury. The Jets moved Mekhi Becton from right tackle back to his usual spot on the left side and pushed Alijah Vera-Tucker out from guard to right tackle. But Vera-Tucker tore his Achilles against the Broncos, and he will miss the remainder of the season.
There aren't many teams shopping tackles this time of year, but Niang has been buried on the Chiefs' roster and has played just 10 offensive snaps over the past two seasons. The 2020 third-round pick is still more of a project than a plug-and-play replacement, but the Jets have taken chances on inexperienced, physical tackles in the past -- such as George Fant -- with some success. Trading Lawson for a project tackle after paying the edge rusher $8 million this offseason would qualify as disappointing, but the Jets need offensive linemen more than backup edge rushers right now.
Instant help for Cowboys' defense ... by giving up a QB
Cowboys get: LB Alex Singleton, 2025 fourth-round pick
Broncos get: QB Trey Lance, 2025 sixth-round pick
There's a sudden surge of teams needing inside linebackers after Week 5, when Buffalo's Matt Milano and Dallas' Leighton Vander Esch were sidelined by serious injuries. Vander Esch is expected to miss four to six weeks with a neck injury, but given his history of neck issues, the Cowboys have to be nervous about a possible recurrence or a lengthier absence. They could move Micah Parsons back to his original position of middle linebacker, but the Defensive Player of the Year hopeful is too valuable as a pass-rusher to move back into a coverage role.
Singleton is one of the many Broncos who have struggled during a frustrating 2023 campaign. The former Eagles linebacker signed a three-year, $18 million extension in March, but Adam Schefter's report that Denver "would be willing to listen to trade interest in almost any player on the defensive side" suggests the 29-year-old would not be off the table for the right offer. Rookie third-round pick Drew Sanders would step into the lineup if Singleton were traded.
Would the Cowboys be willing to part ways with Lance just weeks after acquiring him for a fourth-round pick? If they could land a linebacker who will help them compete for the top seed in the NFC and get back a chunk of that draft capital, it would make sense. Lance is third on the Dallas quarterback depth chart, and as much as the team might bluff otherwise, it is likely to sign Dak Prescott to an extension next offseason, cutting off Lance's path to a starting job.
For the Broncos and Sean Payton, Lance would be a project and a potential long-term quarterback solution if the coach grows weary of Russell Wilson. Lance would have a clearer path to reps as early as the end of the 2023 season, and his contract would be a low-cost, high-upside option for a team that lacks both draft capital and cap space.
Lions go all-in for a star defender
Lions get: EDGE Danielle Hunter, 2024 fifth-round pick
Vikings get: 2024 second-round pick, EDGE James Houston, 2025 third-round pick (conditional)
The Lions should go for it, right? At 4-1, they're well ahead of the NFC North and just a game back of the 49ers and Eagles at the top of the conference. Aidan Hutchinson is playing like a Defensive Player of the Year contender, but no other Lions defender has more than two sacks. Houston, who surprisingly had eight sacks as a rookie last season, is out indefinitely after fracturing his right ankle in Week 2. Veteran Romeo Okwara hasn't been the same since tearing his Achilles several years ago. While Charles Harris is a solid player, Detroit could dream of adding a second star across from Hutchinson on the edge.
Hunter is probably the best player with a realistic chance of being moved by this deadline. The 28-year-old standout has six sacks and a league-high nine tackles for loss through five games this season. He landed a one-year, $17 million deal after a hold-in this summer, but with free agency looming and the Vikings repeatedly reticent to offer him a new deal, he is likely to leave the organization in the offseason.
Other teams know that, which is why the Vikings wouldn't be likely to land a first-round pick for a player with three months remaining on his deal, even given Hunter's pedigree, 2023 production and age. The acquiring team would get to recoup a potential compensatory pick for him in free agency if it lost him, although that pick would be canceled out if the team spent on new free agents accordingly.
Trading Hunter would save the Vikings $8.3 million over the remainder of 2023. They would land Houston -- who looks like a promising pass rush prospect with two years of team control remaining through restricted free agency -- and a second-round pick in April's draft. They would also get a third-round pick in 2025 if Hunter re-signs with the Lions in free agency.
Most teams wouldn't be willing to trade a standout within their own division, but Minnesota general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah seems to relish making deals in the NFC North. The Lions traded up with their rivals to land wideout Jameson Williams in the 2022 draft then sent tight end T.J. Hockenson to the Vikings for draft picks last fall. A then-struggling Detroit team was sending a starter to the first-place Vikings. Now, those roles are reversed.
Panthers make a move for a first-round wideout
Panthers get: WR Marquise Brown, 2024 third-round pick
Cardinals get: WR Terrace Marshall, 2024 second-round pick
Rookie quarterback Bryce Young desperately needs a wide receiver who can break away from man coverage and threaten teams vertically. The Panthers could address that need in free agency next March by signing Brown, but getting him on their roster now would allow them to start rebuilding Young's confidence after an ugly start to the No. 1 overall pick's career.
Brown is playing out the fifth-year option on his rookie deal, and it doesn't appear the Cardinals are particularly desperate to hand him a new contract. The Steve Keim regime that traded a first-round pick to acquire Brown in April 2022 is no longer in charge. While Arizona could franchise-tag Brown to keep him around for 2024, the chances of the team recouping compensatory picks for him in next year's free agent class seem slim, given that it will likely be spending to add talent to its roster elsewhere, nullifying the compensatory picks as a result.
Some middle ground makes sense. The Cardinals would land what will surely be a high-second-round pick for Brown and send one of their three third-round picks in return. They could specify that the pick will be the middle of their three selections. In addition, they would land a player in need of a fresh start in Marshall, who had 490 receiving yards last season but appears to be falling out of favor with the organization. The 2021 second-round pick, drafted ahead of wideouts Nico Collins and Amon-Ra St. Brown, didn't play during Sunday's loss to the Lions.
The Panthers would need to hand Brown an extension to have this deal make sense, with the 26-year-old likely to command a contract north of $20 million per season on the open market. There's risk in a struggling team trading for a player from a middling offense (see: Claypool, Chase), and Carolina might prefer to wait until free agency and take its chances in adding speed then. Still, Brown would form the future of the Carolina receiving corps alongside rookie second-rounder Jonathan Mingo.
Rams make a deal for a change-of-pace back
Rams get: RB Rashaad Penny
Eagles get: LB Troy Reeder
The Penny era came and went without much fanfare in Philadelphia. The former Seahawks back averaged 5.7 yards per carry in Seattle and felt like a dream fit in Philadelphia, but he was a healthy scratch in Week 1. In Week 2, he committed a holding penalty that wiped away a touchdown pass to A.J. Brown and played one offensive snap afterward, and he hasn't seen the field since. The Eagles seem to be happy with D'Andre Swift, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott ahead of Penny, making the 2018 first-round pick trade fodder.
Using Penny to add defensive depth makes sense. Reeder is not going to cause Eagles fans to start climbing lampposts, but he's a useful special teams player who started at inside linebacker for the Rams in 2020 and 2021. The 29-year-old spent camp with the Vikings before being cut and rejoining Sean McVay's team, where he has strictly been on special teams. The Eagles will get back Nakobe Dean (right foot) soon, but Reeder's presence as a special-teamer makes him more viable as a reserve linebacker, unlike Zach Cunningham.
Penny would land as the Cam Akers replacement in Los Angeles, serving as a change-of-pace player and backup for Kyren Williams. Penny competed under former Rams pass game coordinator Shane Waldron during his time in Seattle, so Penny should already have some familiarity with the McVay offense. Penny was also born and raised in the Los Angeles area, which would make this a homecoming for the San Diego State product.
A running back reunion in Cleveland
Browns get: RB D'Ernest Johnson, 2024 seventh-round pick
Jaguars get: 2024 fifth-round pick
The Browns signed Kareem Hunt to supplement their running back depth chart after losing Nick Chubb to a left knee injury, but I'm not sure they can feel great about what they have in their backfield. Hunt averaged 3.8 yards per carry last season, and he has 25 yards on 10 carries so far since rejoining the team. Jerome Ford has turned his 19 carries over the past two games into 44 yards. Some of that was about not having Deshaun Watson under center for the game against the Ravens, but it's not clear whether the Browns have a viable starting back on their roster.
Johnson just finished a four-year tenure with the Browns in 2022, and while he didn't see much action outside of the 2021 season, he averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry across 147 rushes in Cleveland. Johnson signed with the Jags in the offseason, but he has been buried behind Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby on the depth chart; Johnson has six carries in Jacksonville's first five games. The Jags would get more out of this late-round pick swap than what they're currently getting from Johnson, and the Browns would add a player who knows their offense and could become a starter.
Packers acquire a tantalizing pass-catcher ... at a cost
Packers get: WR Jerry Jeudy, 2024 fourth-round pick
Broncos get: WR Romeo Doubs, 2024 second-round pick
The Broncos are expecting to tear down their roster on the defensive side of the ball, but let's consider a scenario in which they make a significant move on offense. Jeudy has shown tantalizing glimpses of potential since being drafted with the No. 15 overall selection in 2020, but injuries and middling quarterback play have cost him significant developmental time. He still averaged more than 2.0 yards per route run last season and is signed through 2024 for a total of just under $15 million, so the 24-year-old has the possibility to be extremely valuable if things break right over the next year-plus.
Coach Sean Payton would probably prefer to deal Courtland Sutton if trading away a wide receiver, but Jeudy is going to offer a more significant return, given his age and contract situation. Because of how desperately the Broncos need draft capital, maximizing the return on Jeudy and landing a second-round pick for a player toward the end of his rookie deal makes sense, even if the Broncos have to give up a fourth-round pick in return.
The Broncos also would land a viable wideout in Doubs, who lacks Jeudy's upside but would add more size to the Denver receiving corps. Payton might like his chances of molding Doubs into a more impactful starter over the next couple of seasons. The Broncos would free up more snaps for Marvin Mims, who simply has to play a bigger role in this lineup, given how productive he has been as a deep target so far as a rookie (10 catches for 246 yards).
Jets give up on a disappointing offseason addition
Jets get: 2025 fifth-round pick
Ravens get: RB Dalvin Cook, 2025 fourth-round pick
Let's clean up one more mistaken offseason addition for general manager Joe Douglas & Co. Cook has been a total nonfactor for the Jets, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry this season. He has averaged a whopping minus-1.5 rush yards over expectation (RYOE), the second-worst mark in the NFL with backs who have had at least 30 carries, trailing only Cam Akers. The Jets turned their backfield over to Breece Hall last week and gave Cook just 17% of the offensive snaps in Sunday's win over the Broncos, so with Cook's role diminishing on a team playing out a lost season, there's no real place for the veteran on New York's roster.
With $262,000 in per-week roster bonuses due over the rest of the season, Cook has negative trade value. The Jets aren't going to want to pay $3.4 million for a back buried on their depth chart -- and neither will just about any other team. Here, New York would actually be giving up extra draft capital to get Cook out the door for a swap of selections in the 2025 draft. It's better to give his carries to Hall and Israel Abanikanda and roll the $3.4 million over to 2024.
The Ravens would be buying some additional draft capital and adding a veteran back as a flier to help plug another hole caused by injuries. J.K. Dobbins is out for the year (Achilles), while Justice Hill has been battling a turf toe injury. General manager Eric DeCosta has turned to veterans Kenyan Drake and Melvin Gordon III with limited results, but Cook was a more productive back as recently as last season. Adding Cook into the mix would land Baltimore some upside and limited downside, given the guaranteed victory in terms of draft capital.
Patriots, Raiders swap out-of-favor wide receivers
Patriots get: WR Hunter Renfrow, 2025 seventh-round pick
Raiders get: WR Kendrick Bourne
When Josh McDaniels took over as Raiders coach in 2022, Renfrow seemed like an easy fit. The former Patriots coordinator who had overseen huge years for Wes Welker and Julian Edelman would plug Renfrow into the slot role and reap the benefits. Renfrow was coming off a career year with 103 catches and nine touchdowns, and the Raiders signed him to a two-year, $32.3 million extension, seemingly confirming he would be a significant portion of their offense alongside Davante Adams and Darren Waller.
It hasn't worked out that way. Renfrow struggled through injuries in a lost 2022 season, and after the Raiders signed Jakobi Meyers in March, they've buried Renfrow on the depth chart. The 27-year-old has six catches through five games, and he lost his duties as the punt returner to DeAndre Carter. His career has stalled out, and Las Vegas seems sure to cut him and free up $8.2 million in cap space after the season.
Renfrow appeared like the sort of player the Patriots could target when he entered the league, and after years of whiffing on wide receiver additions, they desperately need someone who can beat man coverage and give quarterback Mac Jones a reliable safety valve. Meyers was that player for the Pats in years past. Bourne, who had a solid season under McDaniels in 2021, would get his own fresh start after losing his role in 2022 and struggling to make a consistent impact this season.
The Patriots aren't in a position to be adding players solely for the purpose of winning in 2023, but this would be a trade about keeping Jones' head above water during the second half of the campaign and seeing if they can get more out of Renfrow than the Raiders have. In all, the Patriots would take on about $1.3 million in additional costs by swapping out Bourne for Renfrow, which is why they get the extra seventh-round pick.
A veteran injury replacement for Buffalo
Bills get: LB Jordan Hicks
Vikings get: 2024 fifth-round pick
Losing cornerback Tre'Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano to season-ending injuries in back-to-back games could sink the Bills, who can't possibly hope to replace either star with the players available at this trade deadline. Unless the Broncos are willing to trade Pat Surtain -- and the Bills are willing to send the multiple first-round picks it would take to get that deal completed -- Buffalo is going to need to hope that 2022 first-rounder Kaiir Elam can go from healthy scratch to reliable starter on the fly.
Milano is even more irreplaceable, especially given that the Bills were already starting over next to him at linebacker after losing Tremaine Edmunds in free agency. Terrel Bernard has locked down that role, and third-round rookie Dorian Williams could try to step in for Milano, but the Bills sorely need a veteran in the middle of the field. Buffalo re-signed A.J. Klein earlier this week, but the 32-year-old was out of football before returning to western New York; it's tough to believe he'll be an every-down starter over the rest of the season.
The 31-year-old Hicks has bounced around the league while starting for the Eagles, Cardinals and Vikings, giving him experience in a range of systems. He's no match for Milano in coverage, but he is a sure tackler and an efficient run defender, something the Bills will need in their matchups within the AFC East down the stretch. Hicks is owed about $2.5 million in prorated money over the remainder of the season, but he would be a logical fit for Buffalo, given the paucity of options available.
Cowboys add a proven goal-line back
Cowboys get: RB James Conner
Cardinals get: 2025 sixth-round pick (conditional)
The Cardinals were dealt a bad break when Conner suffered a knee injury in Sunday's loss to the Bengals. He had looked good to begin 2023 and would have had a more significant trade value approaching the deadline. With Conner hitting the injured reserve list and missing at least four games, the Cardinals can't expect to get much for the 28-year-old as they rebuild their roster.
Teams can deal players on injured reserve, and Conner would still make sense as a trade candidate, albeit with conditions attached to the package. The compensation here would have to be creative. The Cowboys wouldn't owe anything until Conner scores a touchdown in a Cowboys uniform, protecting them from scenarios in which he is unable to play at a meaningful level after his injury. They would owe a sixth-round pick if Conner scores one touchdown, a fifth-round pick if he finds paydirt four times or a fourth-round selection if he scores six touchdowns and/or runs for 500 yards over the remainder of the season.
Dallas would be adding Conner to help solve its woes inside the red zone. Tony Pollard's nine carries inside the 5-yard line have produced just two touchdowns, while the Cowboys have fallen from first in red zone conversion rate a season ago to 28th this campaign.
Conner is not a superstar, but he has converted 29 touches inside the 5-yard line with the Cardinals into 16 touchdowns while playing behind a middling offensive line. It's a small sample, but that 55% conversion rate is better than the league average for running backs over that time, which is just over 40%. With this affordable deal, Conner could be a valuable 1B to Pollard over the second half of 2023 and into the postseason. If the Cowboys don't feel good about Conner's knee, they might need to dial up an old flame and see if the Patriots are ready to abandon ship on Ezekiel Elliott.
Wide receivers get a change of scenery in Jets-Browns deal
Jets get: WR Donovan Peoples-Jones
Browns get: WR Mecole Hardman Jr.
Hardman has played just 22 offensive snaps since signing a one-year, $4 million deal with the Jets during the offseason. ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported earlier this week that Hardman could be traded. The former Chiefs playmaker never turned into the downfield burner Kansas City had hoped for when it drafted him in the second round in 2019, but he is a useful gadget player and a solid punt returner, so he can justify a role as a team's fourth or fifth wideout.
The Browns hoped to have Jakeem Grant Sr. in that role, but he has yet to play for the team after suffering back-to-back season-ending injuries in consecutive preseasons. Peoples-Jones has been kept in the punt return role out of necessity, but the Browns originally signed Grant to upgrade that spot on special teams. Peoples-Jones has been a regular for Cleveland, and he registered 839 receiving yards last season. But he has been targeted just 14 times on 131 routes this season, which ranks 111th out of 114 wideouts.
A change of scenery for these two pending free agents could fit all parties involved.
Seahawks reunite with an edge rusher
Seahawks get: EDGE Frank Clark
Broncos get: 2024 sixth-round pick
The last Broncos-Seahawks trade went pretty well for Seattle, so why not go back to the well? Just about everybody on the Seahawks racked up a sack in the win over the Giants in Week 4, but no playoff team will ever complain about having too many pass-rushers. Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor and Boye Mafe are going to be regulars when healthy, and safety Jamal Adams will hopefully add something to the rush in his unique role when he returns. However, Seattle could always stand to add another viable edge rusher.
Clark's résumé is well-known to the Seahawks, who originally selected him in the second round of the 2015 draft. His habit of leveling up in the postseason also requires little introduction; he has averaged about 8.2 sacks and 18.2 quarterback knockdowns per 17 games during the regular season, but he has put up 13.5 sacks and 20 knockdowns across 17 playoff contests. With Clark due $874,000 over the remainder of the season, he is an easy addition for Seattle as it hopes to do battle with the 49ers in the NFC West. (ESPN's Field Yates reported Thursday that the Broncos plan to move on from Clark.)
Chiefs add veteran depth at tight end
Chiefs get: TE Zach Ertz
Cardinals get: 2025 sixth-round pick
There's just no reason for Ertz to be on the Cardinals. A team that is rebuilding at worst and tanking at best is paying a 32-year-old tight end more than $9.1 million this season, all while he blocks a path to regular work for Trey McBride, a second-round pick from last year's draft. Ertz doesn't do much more these days than catch passes and fall down -- he's averaging 6.6 yards per reception -- but the former Eagles standout has still drawn a pair of 10-target games this season.
Saying that Ertz is insurance against Travis Kelce getting injured would be foolish, but Ertz would at least give the Chiefs some semblance of a veteran tight end with a feel for finding soft spots in coverage in the case Kelce misses time. The Chiefs dramatically upped their usage of tight ends last season after trading away Tyreek Hill, and the season-ending injury suffered by Jody Fortson in August has probably limited their ability to get to 12 personnel or 13 personnel more often. Ertz is still a big body who can block and serve as a target off play-action in the red zone.
Of course, the Chiefs don't want to pay $6.3 million in prorated salary to bring on a backup plan at tight end, so the Cardinals would need to pay down virtually all of Ertz's salary as a bonus to get this deal done. In the end, he would get a chance to go try to win one more Super Bowl, the Cardinals would save a small amount of money and get a draft pick, McBride would get a chance to play as the top tight end for Arizona and the Chiefs would land a pass-catcher who can mix into their rotation over the remainder of the season.
Eagles acquire depth at corner
Eagles get: CB K'Waun Williams
Broncos get: 2025 seventh-round pick (conditional)
Under the "Everything must go!" defensive philosophy in Denver, there's not a logical place on the roster for Williams, who is on injured reserve after undergoing ankle surgery in August. The former 49ers defender has struggled to stay healthy as a pro, but he has been a solid slot defender when available. Williams also played for coordinator Ejiro Evero last season in a Vic Fangio-style defense in Denver, so he should be familiar with what coordinator Sean Desai -- who worked under Fangio in Chicago -- would ask of him in Philadelphia.
The Eagles would send a conditional late-round pick that would only transfer if Williams is healthy enough to play down the stretch and into the postseason. Slot corner has been a problem for them after Avonte Maddox tore a pectoral muscle in September, with the Eagles even rotating James Bradberry into the slot for stretches over the past few weeks. Bradberry is likely best on the outside, and Williams would offer added depth and more familiarity in the slot without the deal costing much (or anything) if things don't work out.