This was a nice, breezy tour of everything from the formation of the earth, its early geologic history, to the emergence of life, the transformation oThis was a nice, breezy tour of everything from the formation of the earth, its early geologic history, to the emergence of life, the transformation of the atmosphere, mass extinctions, animals, and humans. It begins and ends with a plea on climate change and the environment. All of it felt up-to-date and reliable, nice pictures and tables, but more of a review than any sort of original argument or synthesis. Not a criticism, just makes it more workmanlike useful to read than especially memorable....more
A comprehensive, authoritative, well-written guide to climate change--with a good treatment of the science and an excellent treatment of the economicsA comprehensive, authoritative, well-written guide to climate change--with a good treatment of the science and an excellent treatment of the economics that is suitable both as an introduction and also for more knowledgeable non-specialists....more
This Kindle Single is a like a nonfiction novella, and it feels like the perfect length/format for this book--which explores the Keystone XL issue thrThis Kindle Single is a like a nonfiction novella, and it feels like the perfect length/format for this book--which explores the Keystone XL issue through excellent reporting as Steven Mufson travels from the tar sands of Canada to the entire length of the planned Keystone XL pipeline to Port Arthur in Texas. In the process it explores the economic, environmental and human impacts of the pipeline--much of it told through the eyes of various people along the way. Worth reading....more
Buy this book, then read the beginning of Chapter 4 which provides a hilarious send-up of how ineffective the government's food pyramid was (it is funBuy this book, then read the beginning of Chapter 4 which provides a hilarious send-up of how ineffective the government's food pyramid was (it is funnier when you can actually see the figure): "Now ask yourself what you should be eating if you care about nutrition. Maybe the shoeless person climbing (away from the food? toward the top?) holds a clue. But wait. What is so good about the top? What is that white apex supposed to represent? Is it heaven? Is it thinness? At the bottom, why are so many foods crowded into each other? Are you supposed to eat all of those things? At once? What’s that large stripe between “fruits” and “meat and beans”? And what is that brown thing at the lower right? Is it a shoe? Did it belong to that climbing person? Are you supposed to eat it?"
Then go back to the beginning of the book from beginning to end. And then start thinking about how you can apply the many lessons that Cass Sunstein imparts with brilliance, wit, insight, compassion, and endless energy and initiative--tying together a large amount of material into a coherent, consistent intellectual framework that is focused but also flexible....more
The Signal and the Noise was a really great read. It's one of those books that lets you annoy your friends by tediously repeating facts, many of whichThe Signal and the Noise was a really great read. It's one of those books that lets you annoy your friends by tediously repeating facts, many of which they already have picked up from reading the book, reading reviews, or other tedious friends. Like when the Weather Channel says it is a 30% chance of rain it rains 30% of the time, but that when it says a 10% chance of rain it really means a 3% chance of rain (they would rather people be pleasantly surprised). Or that earthquakes are unpredictable. Or that minor league baseballs players are difficult to predict and give a good advantage to very good scouts, while in the majors it is different. Or that a particularly great professional sports better will win 56 percent of the time. Or other examples drawn from the areas Nate focuses on: political predictions, elections, the macroeconomy, financial markets, epidemics, earthquakes, terrorism, baseball, chess, and poker.
There is a deeper and more important set of lessons in the book to anyone that has not been sufficiently exposed to Bayesian methods. None of that was new to me, but it is still interesting to read and should be mandatory reading for anyone who has not been exposed to it before.
I take some issue with the presentation of economics. Nate is completely right that macroeconomic forecasting has a terrible track record, and does not even appreciate how terrible its own record is. But he doesn't seem to recognize that there is a lot more to economics than macroeconomic forecasts. And, at least as much of the fault with those forecasts lies with the people demanding and using them as with the people providing them.
And I'm not quite as impressed with Nate's election forecasting--anyone relying just on public polls taken in the days before the election would have correctly picked 49 or 50 of the 50 states in both 2008 and 2012. Nate did not have any magic, but he did have much better perspective on the uncertainty in the forecasts and how to read/interpret the significance of movements well in advance of election day.
But those are quibbles, this book really deserves wide readership, probably starting with all of those who rushed out to buy it after the election and still have it sitting on their shelves....more
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