What a fascinating book! It is about so much more then Steve Bannon even though he is the main focus of the book there are interviews and large sectioWhat a fascinating book! It is about so much more then Steve Bannon even though he is the main focus of the book there are interviews and large sections focused on Aleksander Dughin and Olavo de Carvalho.
Ben Teitelbaum is a music ethnologist that ended up researching the far right and most importantly Traditionalism. This philosophy posits that major world religions are founded upon common primordial and universal metaphysical truths.
Rene Guenon was one of the fathers of traditionalism, he was born in France but he eventually migrated to Egypt and converted to Islam and was inducted into islamic esotericism. Julius Evola was also another foundational traditionalist, he was an Italian philosopher that worked for Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany and wrote on mysticism, esoterism, orientalism. All Traditionalist writers were anti-democratic, anti-liberal and advocated a return to traditional ways of living, spiritualism and rejected modernism, secularism and the modern way of living.
Steve Bannon was in the US navy based in Asia where he read Eastern philosophy and discovered traditionalism. He then worked in investment banking in Goldman Sachs where he made a fortune and then used his money and connections to start his political lobbying career. He controlled Breitbart media and rose to become part of the Trump administration but was removed after disagreements with people such as Ivanka Trump and Jarred Kushner. He believed Trump should remove the US from the international system and was disappointed with Trump's continued interventionist policies in places such as Syria and his globalist policies. He views Russia as a natural ally of the US and China as the main adversary.
Aleksandr Dughin is a Russian philosopher and professor that drew inspiration from traditionalism and created the euroasianist movement. He started off with his National Bolshevik party and promoted Russian imperialism, expansionism, anti-americanism, anti-globalism and anti-western policies. He served in the Russian army and acted as an unofficial diplomat promoting Russian policies and alliances in countries such as Turkey and China. He participated in the Russian invasions of Georgia and Ukraine. The goal of his policies are the defeat of the US and the creation of a multipolar world.
Olavo de Carvalho is a Brazilian former journalist, astrologer, conspiracy theorist and self-style philosopher that became a major influence and adviser of the Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. He promoted traditionalism but he believed that the main force or globalism is China not the US. As such he advocated for a breaking of Brazil from China and BRICS and an alliance with the US. He famously debated and argued against Dughin's anti-americanism.
The book discusses the interaction of all these traditionalist thinkers and their influence on world politics. It is jam packed with so much interesting and lesser known information. One of the best non-fiction books I've read this year....more
Ca de obicei, am devorat cartea lui Armand Goşu. O analiză foarte lucidă a primilor doi ani de război în Ucraina. Cartea conține interviuri din perioaCa de obicei, am devorat cartea lui Armand Goşu. O analiză foarte lucidă a primilor doi ani de război în Ucraina. Cartea conține interviuri din perioada 2021 - 2023 și trece în revistă toate marile evenimente de la pregătirea invaziei, la atac, contra-ofensiva Ucrainei din 2022, rebeliunea lui Prigojin până la situația de la sfârșitul lui 2023.
România bineînțeles este în contra-timp cu istoria, filo-rusii din SIE și MAE rămași de pe vremea comunismului (sau urmașii lor) văd Ucraina mai degrabă ca un inamic și preferă victoria Rusiei. De aceea România are o atitudine oscilantă și asta ne va costa pe termen lung. În același timp Polonia devine una din cel mai importante țări din Europa din punct de vedere militar și diplomatic....more
On Tyranny is a short book written by Timothy Snyder in 2017 a few months after the US election. He takes the learnings from the XXth century and distOn Tyranny is a short book written by Timothy Snyder in 2017 a few months after the US election. He takes the learnings from the XXth century and distils them into a set of 20 pieces of advice that needs to be followed in order to prevent the rise of tyrannical regimes. The 20 lessons are very valuable but the book is a bit too short. Very worthwhile reading....more
A good overview of the last century of evangelical Christianity in the United States. I don't know much about evangelical Christianity but from what IA good overview of the last century of evangelical Christianity in the United States. I don't know much about evangelical Christianity but from what I've seen in media, movies and on YouTube it always seemed very strange and didn't seem to have much to do with traditional Christianity. This book explains how starting from the 1960s a brach of fundamentalists took over the evangelical movement and pushed out all the moderates.
They created their own version of Christianity where Jesus is not peace loving but rather a strong, macho leader. Aggressiveness, guns and warmongering are encouraged and admired in this new Christianity which takes its inspiration not from the Bible but rather from Hollywood and popular culture. This is how Christian movies, music, media and televangelists are born.
The book does a decent job of explaining the link between the evangelical movement and politics from opposing the civil rights movement of the 60s and 70s, supporting the Vietnam war to influencing the election of Presidents such as Reagan, Bush and Trump. It also finally made me understand why evangelicals hated Hilary Clinton so much and that is because she came from a moderate Baptist branch of the evangelical community which is stark contrast with the fundamentalist branches.
I would have liked if there was more of a focus on the current day political side. There is a good explanation as to why modern evangelists support Donald Trump despite his obvious non-Christian values. But the main focus is more on the popular culture and the main evangelical media figures that ran churches, published books and created new denominations.
There is a good discussion of all the various sexual scandals and the many cover ups within the churches. But there is very little discussion of the super popular and overly rich and corrupt televangelists.
Overall this is a quite an informative book which gave me a good overview of the modern evangelist movement. There was an exaggerated use of the word 'patriarchy' and some areas were only briefly covered but it does the job....more
End Times is by far my book of the year. Hell, it could be the book of the decade. It brings together the things that I find the most interesting in tEnd Times is by far my book of the year. Hell, it could be the book of the decade. It brings together the things that I find the most interesting in the world: history and statistics.
Turchin works in the field of 'cliodynamics' which basically tries to use statistical modelling techniques to predict crises in world history. Of course, as statisticians say all models are wrong but some are more wrong then others. It's probably impossible to have a perfect model of history but Turchin gives it a pretty damn good go. His model predicted the instability of the 2020s back in 2010. What does he base it on?
Societal collapse is caused by elite overproduction (too many rich) and popular immiseration (too many poor). These two factors work together to cause major crises. Turchin reviewed many of the famous collapses such as the Taiping Rebellion in 1840s China or the French revolution and found that in all cases there was an oversupply of elites that were fighting for power, a widening gap between the rich and the poor and a worsening condition for the lower classes.
The elites which don't have access to power start fighting in an attempt to gain power while the lower classes start rebelling. For example, during the Taiping rebellion the Chinese elites were competing for the Mandarin roles, but there were too many candidates and not enough roles. At the same time the lower classes were suffering from poverty. The leaders of the rebellion were elites that failed the public service entry exams and instead started a rebellion to which the lower classes rallied to.
Turchin then does a comparative analysis of the history of France and England. Both countries experienced cycles of disintegration and then recovery. They actually influenced each other and the collapse of one usually was followed by the collapse of the other with a delay of a few decades.
In general monogamous societies (such as the Western ones) collapse once every 200-250 years, while polygamous societies (such as the Mongol Empire or the Islamic empires) collapsed every 100 years due to higher elite overproduction (as noted even by Ibn Khaldoun who noticed that an Islamic dynasty ruled roughly for 100 years before it is replaced by another one).
But crises don't always lead to societal collapse. Turchin notes that in some cases the elites manage to make deals and sacrifice some of their power in order to preserve the order. In the XIX century the British and Russian Empires avoided revolutions by taking active measures. In Britain the people's charter reform gave extended rights to the common people and in Russia the serfs were freed. In Russia, this period of recovery lasted only for a generation until the disintegration once again started with the revolutions of 1905 and finally the collapse of 1917.
The main focus of the book is of course the United States. Like the other countries studied the US also experienced cycles of disintegration and recovery. During the XIXth century there was a rapid expansion of the wealthy class as the US industrialised and expanded, the South had extensive agricultural lands and an old ruling class descending from the British ruling class while the North had the newly enriched business class. Although slavery was a factor in triggering the war, the main reason for the Civil War was the rivalry and the struggle for power between the Southern old ruling class and the Northern newly enriched bourgeoisie. The civil war lead to the death of many of the elites and the reconstruction period things started looking up for the lower classes.
Following the recovery of the middle to late XIXth century there was yet another period when the elites started gaining more wealth and power and there was increasing social turmoil. At this point two things happened: a lot of the wealth of the elites was wiped out in the Great Depression and FDR's New Deal gave more rights and financial help to the working class. During the 1930-1950s there was elite consensus in the US that the lower classes should receive a fair share. By voluntarily forgoing some of their wealth to the working class the elites prevented a societal collapse.
The problem is that gradually the elites once again started accumulating more wealth and power and the working class started losing out. Real salaries started dropped since the 1970s. The life expectancy of working class American started dropping and today 30-40 yr olds have a lower life expetancy then their parents due to death of despair (alcohol, drugs, crime, suicide). Their heights have also been dropping due to diet. At the same time there are more and more elites, more and more people get degrees and the numbers of millionaires has been exploding.
This means that in the US both of the conditions for societal collapse are satisfied: elite overproduction and popular immiseration. The Democratic party used to be the party of the working class but is now more representative of the ruling elites, while the Republican party represents the interests of other elites that are challenging the status quo but are also using populism to engage the working classes. People such as Donald Trump, Tucker Carlson or Steve Bannon are all rich elites that are trying to challenge the status quo in order to gain political power.
It is interesting how immigration fits in the narrative. Although at face value the right-wing is against immigration, it actually favours immigration because it brings in cheap labour and depresses worker salaries. That is why for example someone like Bernie Sanders is against immigration, because he knows all it does is further the immiseration of the American working class.
If a new consensus is not forged it is likely that the US will face societal collapse. But is that inevitable? History says not necessarily. There are also good examples in European countries such as France, Denmark and Germany where the elites have forged a working relationship with the rest of the population and have shared their wealth....more
Capitalism killed capitalism. Hailing from a country that suffered for 50 years under communism I am not the biggest fan of socialism or even left winCapitalism killed capitalism. Hailing from a country that suffered for 50 years under communism I am not the biggest fan of socialism or even left wing policies. However, I have always enjoyed listening to Yanis Varoufakis' criticism of the current economic system.
The rise of big tech has brought with it massive changes in the world economy. Today there are two competing cloud powers the US and China. The cloud companies (Google, Meta, Amazon, Baidu etc.) have become like the feudal lords of old. They no longer operate for profit but rather they have become renters. They rent out their cloud to the cloud thralls and cloud serfs, as Varoufakis calls the companies and people that have to pay in order to operate their businesses and earn a wage (Uber drivers, Amazon sellers, software companies and so on).
There is an interesting analysis of why Musk bought Twitter and it wasn't as a vanity project but rather as a way to turn his company group into a cloud feudal lord. The breaking of traditional trade between the US and China and its replacement with cloud competition might also increase the risk of war.
In the final chapter Varoufakis describes a techno-utopia where technology is used to bring justice and equality to all, where the employees own the companies they work for, where countries have to pay a penalty for both their trade deficit and their trade surplus and so on. It's interesting, entertaining and completely unrealistic.
The book is an excellent analysis of the overwhelming power of cloud capital which is taking over the world economic system....more
The Age of the Strongman was published in 2022 and address the increase in so-called strongmen in global politics. There are chapters dedicated to PutThe Age of the Strongman was published in 2022 and address the increase in so-called strongmen in global politics. There are chapters dedicated to Putin, Xi, Modi, Trump, BoJo, Netanyahu, Orban, MBS, AMLO, Bolsonaro, Duterte and Abiy Ahmed. The final chapters deal with the response to strongmen in Europe with Merkel and Macron pushing back.
As other reviewers have mentioned this book is pretty much a rehash of the world news in the past 10 or so years. So if you've been paying attention to global politics there is nothing new.
It's also sometimes a bit forced such as putting Boris Johnson into the strongman category. BoJo is a sleazy politician and a showman but pretty far from a strongman. That's why my favourite parts were the lesser known leaders such as Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia or Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico....more
I read a few Robert Kaplan books every year. He writes the perfect mix of travel writing, history and geopolitical analysis. He's getting older every I read a few Robert Kaplan books every year. He writes the perfect mix of travel writing, history and geopolitical analysis. He's getting older every year and that makes me appreciated that he's still writing books. This was one of the best books I've read from him.
The Loom of Time deals with the countries the span from the Eastern Mediterranean starting from Turkey to Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, Kurdistan, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. In each country he details its history, politics, some travel experiences and also the writings of experts and local academics and politicians.
Turkey - is in the midst of neo-Ottomanism and rebuilding its old empire, even though it is part of NATO it is turning more towards Russia
Egypt - Experienced a popular revolution, brought down Mubarak only to end up even worse with the Muslim brotherhood taking power. The army had to come and take over control and restore a measure of normality. People think of the Arab Spring as a time of anarchy and are not interested in democracy but in stability.
Ethiopia - is actually a multiethnic empire with several competing groups such as the Oromo, Amhara or the Tigre. It went from a feudal monarchy under Emperor Haile Selassie who was world recognised to a communist revolution under the Derg who murdered the royal family and imposed a repressive regime. In the 1990s it faced war with Eritrea, civil war and instability. Today people long for the stable times of old and have pictures of Haile Selassie and Mengistu even though the former was murdered by the latter.
Saudi Arabia - is at the same time the most represive and the most liberal it's been in its history. MBS is stamping down on religious extremism, allowing concerts, cinema, music, giving women rights while at the same time instituting a police state which deals ruthlessly with any opposition. SA will pivot towards China if the US keeps insisting on human rights and democracy as the Saudis are not interested in that.
Syria - historically Syria has been a collection of city states and the cities like Aleppo and Damascus have had separate interests and areas of influence. It is more a geographical area rather then a country. The Ottoman Empire brought Syria under a single ruler. After WW1 Syria was partitioned and arbitrary lines were drawn which crossed religious and ethnic boundaries. Hafez al-Assad was probably the least bad dictator in the Middle East and brought a measure of peace. His son completely destroyed his father's legacy by clinging on to power and refusing to organise elections which he probably would have won. This led to a horrible civil war and a huge death toll as well as the disintegration of Syria.
Iraq - like Syria, Iraq was an artificial construct of the British Empire. It brings together three separate groups: Sunnis and Shia Arabs and Kurds. Iraq was a monarchy under the Hashemite dynasty but experinced multiple military coups and revolutions which led to the rise of Saddam Hussein. Saddam killed all his political rivals and imposed an iron rule, he then started wars with Iran and Kuwait. The American toppling of Saddam led to the expected disintegration of Iraq as there was nothing holding the various ethnic and religious groups together.
Kurdistan - the Kurds are one of the largest ethnic groups without a country, being split between Turkey, Iraq and Syria. The Kurds in Iraq have the most stable polity but are split between two ruling clans: the Talibani and the Barzani. Compared to the rest of Iraq, Kurdistan is a measure more peaceful and a working society even though it is still very corrupt. Iraqi Kurdistan tried to breakaway but were stopped by an Iranian and Iraqi blockade. The Kurds in Syria under the PYD and their armed branch the YPG are marxist and are linked to the PKK in Turkey.
Afghanistan - experienced upheaval in the 1970s as the urban elite tried to modernise the country and bring the rural tribal areas under its control. The various Pashtun, Uzbek and Tadjik tribes had their own interests. The tribes did not want to modernise and when the USSR invaded they fought a bloody guerrilla war supported by Pakistan and the US. After the USSR retreated the various tribal groups devolved into a civil war which led to the rise of the Taliban. The US fell in the same trap as the USSR and retreated in shame. After spending billions on trying to build democracy in Afghanistan the US left with nothing while currently Chinese companies are extracting the valuable resources.
Pakistan - a country which was created after millions of refugees fled India. It is a military run country as the tribal areas are unruly and can not be controlled. China is currently investing millions into the Belt and Road initiative and this may be Pakistan's chance to stabilise and develop.
It is interesting reading about Kaplan's regret about supporting the Iraq war, even though he himself had written in 1996 that what would come after Saddam's collapse will be far worse and would destroy Iraq.
My favourite quote from the book was: the greater the disorder the more extreme the order that follows it. This was in relation to Afghanistan which had descended into tribal warfare in the 1990s and the extremist Taliban came in and brought a measure of order. However, this would could apply to any place that has faced anarchy, dissolution or revolution....more
This was an absolutely terrifying book to read. This was my fourth book from Annie Jacobsen, she is a fantastic journalist and writes excellent historThis was an absolutely terrifying book to read. This was my fourth book from Annie Jacobsen, she is a fantastic journalist and writes excellent history books.
In Nuclear War she tackles what would happen to the world if a nuclear war broke out and the answer is pretty much the end of civilisation. She narrates minute by minute what would happen in the US if a North Korean nuclear attack was launched, how the US would react and how Russia would react. After that she explaims what would happen to the US civilian population, how the emergency services would react, how all of the electricity, water, internet would be cut off. Many of the scenarios have been simulated and played out numerous times by specialists and the results have always been terrible.
Annie Jacobsen interviewed lots of generals, scientists, diplomats and former security officials that were part of the US nuclear response apparatus. One of the scientists she interviewed was known as the trigger man because he personally triggered the detonators for many nuclear bombs during tests.
A few things I learned:
- Once a country launches a nuclear missile it is very likely that it will result in all out nuclear war - The US has a launch on warning policy, this means that they will launch a retaliatory strike as soon as they receive a warning that an enemy missile has been launched. They will not wait to absorb the impact - Due the Earth's curvature and the positioning if the US launches nuclear missiles against North Korea they will have to fly over Russia. This means Russia will need to decide if those missiles are actually meant for them or the Koreas. As such, any missile attack by North Korea and counter-attack by the US will likely result in nuclear war with Russia too - North Korea actually has quite a large submarine fleet, they are old and have old technology but at least one is capable of carrying nuclear missiles - submarine launched balistic missiles are the most scary because they can be launched from close proximity without being detected - The US has only about 40 missiles capable of intercepting an ICBM, Russia has over 1,000 ICBMs and SLBMs, China has hundreds - North Korea, Russia and China have truck mounted nuclear missiles which can be moved around, the US does not have this because the population does not like nuclear weapons being driven around the country - due to the danger associated with misinterpreting a nuclear launch the US, Russia and China maintain open channels of communication and announce each other of nuclear tests, this continues even after the 2022 Ukraine invasion and worsening of relations. North Korea does not notify the US of the nuclear tests it does - North Korea has a network of tunnels and nuclear bunkers designed for the leadership to survive a nuclear war - During a nuclear war there will be several sources of death: radiation, massive fire, disease caused by all the dead bodies and finally nuclear winter caused by the nuclear clouds covering the sky and blocking the sun
After reading this book I realise even more the madness of Russia threatening the use of nuclear weapons. These sort of threats have never before been made even in the depths of the cold war because everyone knew a nuclear war meant the end of the world, the end of civilisation and of humanity....more
Well known Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar makes a comeback with War and Punishment. I absolutely loved his book All the Kremlin’s Men so I could notWell known Russian journalist Mikhail Zygar makes a comeback with War and Punishment. I absolutely loved his book All the Kremlin’s Men so I could not wait to get my hands on his new work which did not disappoint.
What makes the book even more valuable is the fact that Mikhail Zygar was a well known journalist in Russia and personally met and interviewed a lot of the actors in this war in both Russia and Ukraine. He mentions that some of his Ukrainian friends stopped talking to him because he is Russian and that had a major impact on him. In a way he wrote this book as an atonement to show that he does understand the plight of the Ukrainian people.
War and Punishment focuses on the history of the Russia-Ukraine relationship and covers a very long period of time from the XVIIth century to the present day. About half the book covers the period from the XVIIth century to the fall of the Soviet Union and the other half covers the modern history of Ukraine from independence until 2023.
This is the essential book to read in order to understand the origins of the Russia-Ukraine war. It is well worth the read for anyone interested in the topic and it is very well written and engaging.
The following is a summary of all of the events in the book (mainly for my own note-taking and remembering)
The book starts in the XVIIth century when the Cossack Hetmanate was part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth but the Cossack Bohdan Khmelnytsky started an anti-Polish uprising. In order to gain an edge against the Poles the Cossacks sign the Treaty of Pereiaslav with the Tsardom of Russia. The Cossacks see this treaty as any other alliance treaty, they give their allegiance to the Tsar in exchange for protection. However, the Tsar sees the treaty as more of an annexation. This is where the long and difficult relationship starts
In 1674 he Prussian born Innokenty Gizel, a converted Orthodox priest wrote the Synopsis. This is the first historical work that tries to create a cohesive history of the Kievan Rus and also to link it to the Russian people. He is the first to claim that the Russian princes of Moscow are the successors of the Princes of Kiev. The goal of the Synopsis was to create a historical basis for the Treaty of Pereiaslav and the annexation of the Kievan lands.
Once the historical basis is set the book goes through all of the Polish-Cossack wars, rebellions, the subsequent Cossack hetmans, the invasion of Charles XII of Sweden and the rebellion of Ivan Mazepa, the reign of Catherine the Great and the conquest of Crimea and finally the disestablishment of the Cossack hetmanate in 1764-1783.
The book then goes through the cultural development in Ukraine during the XIXth century when writers such as Gogol and Taras Shevchenko make a name for themselves in Russian high society. However, the Ukrainian language is considered a poor, backwater dialect and the writers have to use Russian in order to be taken seriously. At this time Ukraine is seen as an integral part of Russia and the Ukrainian language is discouraged. The Ukrainian historian Mykhailo Hrushevskyi writes his 10 volume History of Ukraine-Rus which is the first historical work to break from the Russo-centric view and treats Ukraine as a separate entity.
The Russian revolution brings chaos in Ukraine as the Bolsheviks battle the Germans, Whites, the Poles, the Ukrainian nationalists under Petlyura and the peasant uprisings of Nestor Makhno. Several short lived Ukrainian states such as the Ukrainian People's Republic and the West Ukrainian People's Republic are established for the first time but quickly fall to the Bolsheviks. Ukraine is subsequently incorporated as a Soviet Republic in the USSR. Initially the Ukrainian language is encouraged by Lenin and Stalin. But subsequently the language is once again suppressed and Ukraine suffers starvation in the Holodomor and losses many of its intellectuals under Stalin's Great Terror.
Various Ukrainian nationalist groups spring up in the inter war period, notably the Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalists under Stepan Bandera. During World War II Germany occupies almost all of Ukraine and nationalist armies join the Germans in fighting against the Soviets. The Ukrainians even declare a state but that is suppressed by the Germans. As the war rages the Ukrainians find themselves on both sides of the conflict, the nationalists fight against the Soviets, then against the Germans and the Poles. After the war Ukraine is once again under Soviet rule and the nationalists are suppressed.
During the late 1908s Ukraine plays a pivotal role in the fall of the Soviet Union. The Chairman of the Ukrainian SSR Leonid Kravchuk becomes the first President of Ukraine, declares independence and agrees to the dissolution of the USSR along with the Russian leader Boris Yeltsin and the Belorussian leader Stanislav Shushkevich. The beginning of modern Ukraine marks almost the halfway point of the book.
An interesting note, even though they were old men Shushkevich and Kravchuk die within days of each other in May 2022, a few months after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Zygar speculates that they might have been killed as a symbolic revenge over their role in the dissolution of the USSR.
The 1990s begin with political turmoil, corruption and organised crime in Ukraine. The country inherits the USSR's nuclear arsenal and also has the majority Russian Crimea. Kravchuk is seen as pro-Western reformer but is eventually defeated in elections by the pro-Russian Leonid Kuchma. Initially, the Kremlin sought to break off Crimea however after the victory of Kuchma it was believed that Ukraine will re-enter the Russian orbit anyway so the Russians abandoned the separatist ideas.
Towards the end of Kravchuk's presidency he bows to US pressure and signs the Budapest Memorandum agreeing to give up Ukraine's inherited nuclear arsenal to Russia in exchange for financial support and also security guarantees that the territorial integrity of Ukraine will be expected. However, the French president Mitterand pulled Kravchuk aside and told him that he has made a big mistake and that the Russians will break the agreement.
Between 1994 to 2005 Ukraine is led by Leonid Kuchma. This was a period marked by powerful oligarchs controlling major branches of the economy, political assassinations, battles between oligarchs and wide spread corruption. The assassination of the investigative journalist Georgiy Gongadze by members of the police shocked the Ukrainian public and became a major political point in the 2004 elections. The Minister of Internal Affairs was the likely person that ordered the assassination and he died mysteriously in 2005 right before he was meant to be investigated for his role in the murder.
In the 2004 Presidential election Kuchma had selected the governor of Donetsk Viktor Yanukovich as his successor. Two former members of the Kuchma government: former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko and former Minister for Energy Yulia Tymoshenko created an unlikely alliance of reformers and pro-Western parties and challenged Yanukovich who was seen as the pro Russian candidate. Vladimir Putin heavily supported Yanukovich while the Russian oligarch Boris Berezovsky secretly supported the opposition in order to thwart Putin's plans. During the election campaign Yushchenko was poisoned and became disfigured. This was mocked by the Yanukovich faction but was a rallying point for the opposition.
The election results initially showed the opposition winning but were then modified in order to show Yanukovich as the victor. This triggered the Orange Revolution which led to the invalidation of the election and the eventual victory of Yushchenko who became president and Tymoshenko Prime Minister. This was seen as a massive blow to Russia. However, after the victory Yushchenko and Tymoshenko started fighting which led to the eventual removal of Tymoshenko. The rest of his presidency was marked by infighting, legislative deadlock and coalition crises in 2007 and in 2008. He lost re-election to Yanukovych in the 2010 Ukrainian presidential election.
Ukraine was completely dependent on Russia for its gas supplies. Russia uses this dependence to keep a tight leash on Ukraine. Various corrupt oligarchs such as Dimitri Firtash controlled energy companies and were involved in deals between Ukraine and Russia. Various disputes led to the gas being cut-off by Russia several times as well as increase in the gas price as retaliation against Ukrainian attempts at independence.
Another major bone of contention during this period is the unity of the Orthodox church in Ukraine. After the fall of the Soviet Union 3 separate churches existed in Ukraine: a church which is dependent on the patriarch of Moscow, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church – Kyiv Patriarchate which separated from the Moscow branch in 1992 and the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church which was established in 1989. Following long negotiations and political machinations the Kyiv Patriarchate and Autocephalous churches were unified in 2018 under the auspices of the Patriarch of Constantinople. This left only two major rival Orthodox churches: one under the control of Moscow and one under the control of Kyiv. During the 2022 invasion the Moscow led church would support the invasion which alienated a lot of its Ukrainian believers.
Yanukovych won the 2010 elections on a pledge to join the EU but NATO. The first years of his candidacy were marked by the jailing of Tymoshenko and increase in corruption. In 2013 made a sudden decision, amidst economic pressure from Russia, to withdraw from signing an association agreement with the EU and instead accept a Russian trade deal and loan bailout. This sparked mass protests against him which ultimately led to the Euro Maidan revolution. Special forces affiliated with the government but possibly under orders from Moscow opened fire on the protesters. This caused massive unrest and parliament voted the removal of Yanukovych who fled to Russia. In the elections that took place after the revolution the chocolate tycoon Petro Poroshenko won the Presidency.
Ukraine had always been divided between the Western parts which had been part of Poland or Austria and were pro-Western and spoke mainly Ukrainian and the Eastern parts which had been part of Russia, spoke mainly Russian and were pro-Russian.
Following the removal of Yanukovych Russia activated a long prepared plan and invaded and annexed Crimea. At the same time various Russian oligarchs and members of the special services incited unrest in the Eastern provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk. Rebellious militias appeared in these provinces which were led by Russian-sent GRU officers such as the infamous Ghirkin-Strelkov. The Ukrainian government initiated an anti-terrorist operation to defeat the rebels at which point the regular Russian army intervened and pushed back the Ukrainian army. The Lugansk and Donetsk People's Republics were declared and a low level civil war started which would last for 8 years.
Another major bone of contention during this period is the unity of the Orthodox church in Ukraine. After the fall of the Soviet Union 3 separate churches existed in Ukraine: a church which is dependent on the patriarch of Moscow, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church – Kyiv Patriarchate which separated from the Moscow branch in 1992 and the Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church which was established in 1989. Following long negotiations and political machinations the Kyiv Patriarchate and Autocephalous churches were unified in 2018 under the auspices of the Patriarch of Constantinople. This left only two major rival Orthodox churches: one under the control of Moscow and one under the control of Kyiv. During the 2022 invasion the Moscow led church would support the invasion which alienated a lot of its Ukrainian believers.
During the Presidency of Poroshenko several agreements were signed at Minsk between Ukraine and the Separatists. However, the agreements were violated straight away by the separatists and Ukraine was not eventually able to follow the agreements either as it would have meant a loss of sovereignty. The ongoing civil war, the difficult economic situation in the country and popular discontent led to the election of the famous Ukrainian comedian Volodymyr Zelensky as President in 2019.
Zelensky hailed from a Russian speaking Jewish family in Kryvyi Rih. Zelensky could not speak Ukrainian until later on in life and he learned the language after he became a television personality. He was famous in both Russia and in Ukraine because of his popular comedy group. In the comedy TV series Servant of People he plays the role of a teacher that is elected President. The show became so popular that eventually Zelensky was seen by many as a potential presidential candidate. He won the elections on a platform of anti-corruption and being Russian speaking he was voted by both the Ukrainian speakers in Western Ukraine but also by the Russian speakers in the East. His party managed to win the Parliamentary elections too.
During the Covid pandemic Vladimir Putin became increasingly isolated and spent most of his time in quarantine. During this period he became more and more obsessed with losing Ukraine and he started writing amateur historical documents to prove that the Ukrainian nation was invented and that the Ukrainians are just Russians. He want so far to even publish his historical thoughts in international magazines.
The pandemic also made Putin believe that the West was weak, divided and impotent. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan convinced Putin that America was collapsing and that it would abandon all its allies including Ukraine. That is when he decided to invade Ukraine. He did not share the plans with anyone but his inner circle but in early 2022 he ordered the massive invasion of Ukraine....more
On Palestine is a collection of discussions and essays from Chomsky and the Israeli historian Ilan Pape. They range from the current situation in PaleOn Palestine is a collection of discussions and essays from Chomsky and the Israeli historian Ilan Pape. They range from the current situation in Palestine, some historical background and potential solutions, all of them critiquing Israel's policies.
Most of the critique of the Israeli policies are quite valid and pertinent, especially when it comes to the many crimes and settlement expansions. However, the book suffers from the usual Chomsky problem and that is the fact that he sees the world through an academic and marxist ideological lens. It is actually more glaring in this book as he talks about changing dictionary definitions and using academic discourse to change perceptions.
There is a passage when the authors discuss how they would feel if the Palestinians would free themselves but instead of choosing left-wing ideology they would end up choosing capitalism. This really highlights the problems with Chomsky, in that he sees the world in black and white. There are also other questionable statements such as calling Israel a European colonial state considering the actual history going back to the middle ages.
And probably the most annoying is that it feels that Chomsky is making an excuse for crimes committed by Hamas. It feels that every time he mentions a Palestinian crime it is always a splinter group from Hamas, it's never Hamas actually doing it. It is laughable and disquieting at the same time and I wonder if he even believes what he says.
Despite the obvious bias the discussions are interesting and worth reading but should also be read in a wider context and with several other sources to double check statements....more
The Withdrawal has two major problems. First is an objective problem which is the fact that the book is not about the withdrawal at all, there is bareThe Withdrawal has two major problems. First is an objective problem which is the fact that the book is not about the withdrawal at all, there is barely anything said about it. It is about US involvement in the wars of Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.
The second problem is subjective and that is typical of Chomsky where any state that opposes the US is presented in a positive light, whether it is the USSR, Yugoslavia or China. The US has done quite a lot of bad things in the world and they should be criticised for it. But that doesn't make dictatorial or genocidal regimes any better.
For example, China is presented as a benevolent country that is only trying to develop itself and its neighbours through the belt and road initiative. Chomsky ignores the fact that a country like Vietnam that fought a war against the US is now actually very close to the US and is receiving visits from US fleets in order to stave off Chinese influence. Chomsky has no problems with Serbians massacring Albanian or Bosnian civilians but he draws the line at US bombing.
The most interesting parts of the book are the discussion about the US invasion of Iraq and Saddam's ill fated attempts at negotiating and stopping the attack. Also, the parts about the bombing of Libya and are quite good too.
I've read many books by Chomsky and by this point they are all starting to get a bit too repetitive. But he's still worth reading as a dissenting voice....more
Monsoon is a middle of the road Kaplan book in terms of quality. The subject matter is very interesting as it deals with the countries but also specifMonsoon is a middle of the road Kaplan book in terms of quality. The subject matter is very interesting as it deals with the countries but also specific regions of the Indian Ocean and their past and future prospects.
The countries are Oman, Balochistan and Sindh (Pakistan), Gujarat (India), Delhi (India), Bangladesh, Kolkatta (India), Sri Lanka, Burma, Indonesia and Zanzibar. As usual, Kaplan takes the countries one by one and discusses about their history, talks about his travels there, the current situation and also where he thinks they are heading. He also discusses the interaction of these regions with both China and the US.
I am usually not one to complain about this but Kaplan really exaggerates with his Eurocentrism. He spends a whole chapter talking about the Portuguese conquests in the Indian Ocean and about the poetry written by a great Portuguese poet about this. While that is interesting, it really shouldn't take up that much space. The Indian kingdoms existed before the Portuguese conquests, their history didn't start there even though indeed it heralded their decline.
All in all it was an interesting read, nothing surprising from Kaplan, part travelogue, part history book and part geopolitical analysis. I learned quite a lot about regions that I know very little about....more
This was actually the best of Zeihan's books. It is still very informative and it is recent enough to be relevant. But his quirky and informal style iThis was actually the best of Zeihan's books. It is still very informative and it is recent enough to be relevant. But his quirky and informal style is a bit more restrained here and hence a lot less annoying.
Zeihan goes through the countries that he believes will be the most important in the world going forward and talks about their history, their geopolitics and their outlook. Whether his predictions will come true or not it is very hard to tell. However, we already seeing some of the international breakdowns that he predicted in his previous books which is a bit scary.
The countries discussed are:
- China - massive demographic problems, major problems in maintaining their trade connections open in case of war with the US or other powers - Japan - already beyond being able to fix its demographic problems but has been preparing for a long time, uses the manpower of neighbouring countries to address this by relocating production there, is building a very powerful navy - Russia - massive demographic problems, a crumbling power that has experienced brain drain and can not continue existing within the current borders, will attempt to expand or face collapse - Brasil - experience huge economic growth however massive corruption and geographic barriers will prevent it from becoming a great power, will suffer the most from deglobalisation - Argentina - experienced huge economic problems, however has the best geography for defense and also agriculture which could make it a rising star if it is able to take all of the opportunities - France - has big ethnic problems brewing, did not go all in on the EU project or NATO, kept industries and everything separate and will benefit in the coming chaos as they are not as dependent, has powerful military outreach potential, colonial networks and strong population growth - Germany - it already is beyond the point of demographic recovery, is dependent on export and on trade with Russia and China and will either be forced to re-militarise and potentially face Russia and come to an understanding with them, is also dependent on EU trade and will suffer if the union fails - Turkey - the great rising power, very good demographics, will start taking Balkan countries under its sphere of influence, will have to decide whether to get more involved in the Middle East - Iran - has a great geographical position, in the future will likely become less belligerent and even potentially end up in a partnership with the US - Saudi Arabia - is in need of a new partner to defend it after the US retreat from the Middle East, the main rivalry with Iran is the core of its geopolitics, will potentially ally with Israel as the closest military power, other possibilities are China and Russia but they are both far and Iran stands between them - USA - will retreat more and more from the world stage and will no longer defend global trade, has lowest value for trade as % of GDP out of all developed nations which means it is not dependent on external trade, will still maintain a powerful but more limited military which will allow it to intervene where needed but will no longer be continually present abroad...more
Liar's Poker is a window into the world of high finance in the 1980s. Michael Lewis was there when the investment banks and finance took a bad turn whLiar's Poker is a window into the world of high finance in the 1980s. Michael Lewis was there when the investment banks and finance took a bad turn which will eventually lead to the global financial crisis. And he would be there to report on the effects of this 30 years down the line.
This is the story of Lewis' time at the Salomon Brothers, one of the biggest investment banks on Wall Street and one of the most profitable during the 1980s and 1990s.
The hedonism, the ruthlessness and the irresponsibility of the investment bankers is staggering. Young men and women in their 20s that had barely graduated from university were playing with tens of millions of dollars, gambling, inventing new financial instruments and selling them to gullible investors. It would be funny if it wasn't tragic....more
"Each of us invented our own Putin and we may yet create many more". This is the closing and arguably the most powerful quote of "All the Kremlin's Me"Each of us invented our own Putin and we may yet create many more". This is the closing and arguably the most powerful quote of "All the Kremlin's Men" by the Russian political journalist Mikhail Zygar. I have read several books about Putin including "We Need to Talk About Putin" and "Putin's Wars" by the Russia specialist Mark Galeotti or "The New Tsar: The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin" by Steven Lee Myers as well as several books written by local Romanian experts on Russia such as Armand Gosu. However, Zygar's work stands apart from all of these other works. It is probably the definitive, most complete, objective and interesting book about Vladimir Putin and the inner workings of the Russian political system.
Mikhail Zygar worked as journalist and war correspondent for the major Russian newspaper Kommersant and then founded his own independent TV channel in Russia. He is well know for his investigations in conflict zones as well as into the shady dealings of the Russian political class. During the Presidency of Dimitry Medvedev he was well known for the acid questions that he asked of the then President.
This book was written based on face to face interviews with Russian politicians from Putin's inner circle. It is a high achievement of journalism and has the great advantage of being written by a local Russian that understands the system. I actually read this book at the same time as Owen Matthews' book about the first year of the Russo-Ukrainian "Overreach" and noticed that Matthews quotes Zygar extensively.
Putin's style of ruling reminds a lot of Stalin, not in the murderous sense but rather in the way he uses his underlings against each other, letting them fight in order to see who wins and constantly shuffling people and cabinet positions to ensure that no one gains too much power.
The whole Russian political system operates similar to a mafia. There are several factions that are all loyal to Putin in some way but are vying for control and influence inside the system: the oligarchs, the siloviki (men from the security services), the reformers, the Chechens and so on. Many times men from these factions take actions of their own accord because they believe this is what Putin would want or that it would promote them in his eyes. If the actions succeed then the system can take credit for them, if they fail they can be easily discarded without being associated to the leader.
The book is split into four parts and each chapter is dedicated to one of Putin's henchmen.
The first part of the book deals with the rise of Vladimir Putin as a replacement for Boris Yeltsin. He was promoted by a group of oligarchs known as the family who had gotten rich from despoiling Russia in the 90s and needed their own man in charge. Chief among these oligarchs was the famous Boris Berezovsky. Putin was seen as a non-entity that could be controlled by these men. However, he eventually outsmarted the oligarchs and many of them ended up either dead, jailed or exiled once Putin was in power.
Initially, Putin's main rival was the nationalist Yevgeny Primakov, however Yeltsin outplayed Primakov by stepping down early and ensuring that Putin would be his successor. Eventually, Putin defeated the Communist Gennady Zyuganov and the Unity party merged with Primakov's All Fatherland party to form United Russia.
The second part deal with Putin in power in his first two terms, the initial good relations with the West, the relationship with George Bush and the war in Afghanistan but also the gradual cooling of the relations, the war in Iraq, the Orange revolution in Ukraine and finally the Georgian revolution.
The third part deals with the Presidency of Dimitry Medvedev, a man who started off as a reformer but quickly came back into line with Putin's vision and ending with the infamous invasion of Georgia.
The fourth and final part is aptly named 'Putin the terrible' as the massive protests against a third term convinced Putin that the West is sponsoring the Russian civil society against him. Gradually Putin decides to sideline his collaborators from his first terms and turned more to his trusted childhood and KGB/FSB friends.
This last part of the book deals with the politics of the Caucasus and Middle East. First, is Chechnya and its ruler Ramzan Kadyrov. The author explains how Kadyrov rose to power but then fell from grace when Chechen gunmen gunned down opposition leader Boris Nemtsov in front of the Kremlin. An internal war started between the interior ministry and the Chechens with actual gun fights and assassinations which threatened stability in the Caucasus. This was an example when two internal factions are loyal to Putin but hate and fight with each other.
Syria and the relationship between its dictator Bashar al-Assad and Putin closes this last section. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and status as international pariah was a great benefit for Assad who gained an ally in his war against the West and in the Syrian civil war. The Russian intervention in Syria directly helped Assad win the civil war but also almost triggered a war with Turkey.
The only sad part is that it was published in 2016 and was missing more recent developments. But that is now rectified as Mikhail Zygar has recently written a new book about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict titled "War and Punishment: Putin, Zelensky, and the Path to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine". I will definitely be reading that book soon but at the moment I need a break from Russian history and politics....more
Overreach deals with the Ukrainian-Russian conflict from its very beginning all the way to September 2022 and the Kharkiv counter-offensive. The book Overreach deals with the Ukrainian-Russian conflict from its very beginning all the way to September 2022 and the Kharkiv counter-offensive. The book is split into two: the first half details the history of the Ukrainian-Russian relationship (including the Orange revolution, the Maidan revolution and the 2014 invasion) and then the second half details the 2022 invasion and the course of the war.
There were probably too many pages spent dealing with the background of the war and not enough on the actual war itself. Would have liked to read more about the battles, the strategies, the equipment and the commanders. It doesn't even mention
The author briefly goes over some key battles such as the one for the Hostomel airport. However, there are few details about other major battles such as the siege of Mariupol and Azovstal. The war crimes at Bucha are covered in more detail including the story of the young Russian soldier that committed war crimes and was subsequently captured and sentenced to life in prison. Various actors in the war such as the foreign volunteers, the Chechens, the Wagner mercenaries are each discussed in turn.
The most interesting parts of the book are the individual stories of various people involved in both sides of the conflict from Ukrainian refugees and soldiers to the Russian conscripts. The many of stories of Ukrainian civilian suffering are hard to read, for example the story of a Ukrainian woman that had to first go through Russian in order to escape to Western Europe as it was safer than crossing the frontline.
Even though the author is very knowledgeable about Russia, being part Russian and having lived and worked there as a journalist, it feels that this book was written too quickly and only briefly covered the subject matter. I also noticed a couple of errors in the book such as the confusion of Bucharest and Budapest for the location of the NATO 2008 summit.
Overall this is a decent book but it is more like an introduction to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. I am hoping that once the war is over a definitive account can be written....more
Flashpoints is a book written by the well known geopolitical analyst George Friedman about the upcoming crisis in Europe.
The main flashpoints discusseFlashpoints is a book written by the well known geopolitical analyst George Friedman about the upcoming crisis in Europe.
The main flashpoints discussed are the Balkans/former Yugoslavia, the Caucasus, the Russia-Ukraine border, Turkey or the Mediterranean but also some very unlikely areas such as the French-German border or the French-English channel. Some of the predictions of Friedman are actually quite accurate especially when it comes to Russia and the Mediteranean.
There are some very interesting discussions about Russia and the Caucasus and about the Eurocrisis and the competing interests of Germany and France following 2008. But there are also some very dated assessments. I found particularly ridiculous the claim that Germany wanted to punish the Cypriot middle class. No, they just wanted to get their money and they didn't care what impacted it would have. There is no discussion about the Northern-Ireland border even though UK sentiment had been turning against the EU before actual Brexit occurred (the book was written in 2015 so obviously Brexit is not actually discussed).
Friedman spent way too much talking about the history of Europe and European expansion. That is interesting in itself but it's not that relevant when it comes to the actual flashpoints.
Overall the book is probably a 2.5 out of 5 but rounded it 3....more
I have been wanting to read more Asian history and geopolitics for a long time and Robert Kaplan's Asia's Cauldron was the perfect introduction for meI have been wanting to read more Asian history and geopolitics for a long time and Robert Kaplan's Asia's Cauldron was the perfect introduction for me. This is my fourth Kaplan book so I was used to his style (travel journalism combined with history and modern geopolitics) which made it easy for me to quickly consume the book.
Kaplan explains that the nationalism and wars that marked Europe in previous centuries will be the new reality in the South China Sea as all of the countries are now pushing their own claims. The main issue stems from the so called nine dash line (or the cow lick), this is a contested area in the South China sea which includes the Spratly and Paracel islands as well as many other small islands which has claims from all the countries in the area.
A future conflict in this area will be naval conflict which means means we won't see the large land battles of the past. However, it will also be a war with little humanitarianism as Western countries will have fairly little involvement outside of the US.
The book goes through the following countries:
- Vietnam - even though the Vietnam war is still within recent memory Vietnam actually wants a US presence in the South China Sea in order to balance China and will be probably an important US ally in the future. China is the historical enemy of Vietnam and will continue to be so.
- Singapore - Lee Kwan Yew took Singapore from a swampy backwater city to an international hub. Singapore was initially part of Malaysia but was kicked out because of the ethnic imbalance and inter-ethnic rivalry with the Malays. Lee is the model of the benevolent dictator who actually brought prosperity to his nation despite ruling with an iron and authoritarian hand. Singapore has one of the largest air fleet in the region and punches way above its weight when it comes to defense. It actually has a larger and more powerful air force then any other South-East Asian nation. Singapore is another major US ally in the region despite their good ties with China and the fact that they even have a statue of Deng Xiaoping.
- Malaysia - similar to Singapore, Malaysia also managed to rise from its humble beginnings. In fact, Malaysia did not exist as a unitary region before the British colonial times. It was the British that created the single Malaysian state. After gaining independence the native Malays used Islamic nationalism in order to create a foundation for their state. However, their brand of Islamic is a lot more moderate and Malaysia is one of the most successful Islamic democracies. Malaysia's challenge is to balance its three major ethnic groups: the Islamic Malays, the Indians and the Chinese.
- Phillippines - the Phillippines is the weakest and most unstable of all the South China Sea states. This is related to its Spanish colonial past and the weakness and corruption of its institutions. The dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos embedded corruption and prevented the development experienced by its neighbours. Being a former US possession the Phillippines have a very close association with the US, they are also the most threatened by China due to their competing land claims. The Chinese know that the Phillippines are a weak state and they are bullying them with their expansionist policies. The Phillippines is trying to arm and build a competent navy but they are far away from that and are reliant on US defence.
- Taiwan - Taiwan has a complicated history being. As opposed to other states occupied by Imperial Japan, Taiwan actually had a fairly positive experience under the Japanese. The pivotal moment in Taiwan's history is when Chiang and his Kuomintang army retreated from mainland China. Chiang was a little less of a successful leader compared to Lee Kwan Yew, however his reputation has been unfairly tarnished by reporters and by the antagonism of US commander Joe Stilwell. It is also likely that if not for the Korean War China would have occupied Taiwan in the 1950s. However, the Korean War brought back the US into Asian affairs and prevented Taiwan from falling. Taiwan is another major claimant in the South China Sea as they occupy some major islands.
- China - China is the great rising power in the world. It is outbuilding the US in terms of seapower, for example in new submarines China is beating the US 8 to 1. They also have the advantage of using Diesel subs which are more quiet compared to the US subs which need to cover longer distances and are nuclear powererd. China's major advantage is that they are operating close to their home base as opposed to the US. They are also far bigger and more powerful than any of their neighbours which allows them to move in the South China Sea with great confidence as they see this area as their historical backyard. China will use the old tactics of Finlandisation to try and isolate and contain its neighbours.
Overall Asia's Cauldron is a great overview of the geopolitics of the South China Sea and is extremely informative for people that are not versed in this area. Of course, many of the assessments are based on Kaplan's personal opinions and interpretations. As others have mentioned he does have some attitudes which can be seen as judgemental, for example his dismissal of the Phillippino culture. But I think the pros of the book far outweigh the cons and it is well worth the read....more
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