"With #affordability issues top of mind for #Canadians, poor #national #polling #numbers, the #IsraelHamas #conflict ripping apart the #Liberals’ #voter #base, and the rumoured #federal #candidacy of an #Ontario #NDP #MPP, a #byelection for the safe Liberal stronghold of #TorontoStPauls, Ont., could be a competitive three-way #race in which any #party could win, say #political #insiders and some #MPs.
'If the NDP is able to recruit a high-profile candidate, if the Conservatives put the resources in, it’s going to be very competitive. It’s going to be one to watch for sure,' said 📊 David Coletto 🌎, CEO of Abacus Data, in an interview with The Hill Times.
Coletto said that, according to his January seat projections, this was a Liberal-leaning riding, but the governing party had only a four-point lead over the Conservatives. He said the model does not take into consideration the candidate profile, how a campaign is run, and current affairs issues like the Hamas-Israel conflict, which has sharply divided the Liberal voting coalition. By adding these three factors into the mix, the safe Liberal #riding is in play, and any of the three major parties could win, said Coletto...
The most recent dynamic change that has made the byelection contest even more exciting is the rumored federal candidacy of #JillAndrew who represents the area in the #Ontario #legislature for the #provincial #NDP. In a brief phone interview with The Hill Times, Andrew did not offer a clear answer to the rumours that she could seek her party’s federal candidacy in the byelection.
'I don’t want to be interviewed on rumours and gossip. I’d prefer if the media reached out to talk about #affordablehousing and all the issues that are impacting us here in St. Paul’s,' said Andrew. 'But if I had anything to share, the first person who would know would be Marit Stiles, the leader of the Ontario NDP. So have a great day. Thank you for calling me all the way from Ottawa.'
The provincial and federal riding boundaries are identical. Andrew has won twice provincially, in 2018 and 2022, albeit with a margin of less than three per cent each time.
If Andrew does decide to run federally, she will have to step down as an MPP...
Besides polling numbers and Andrew’s potential candidacy, two other factors are complicating the Liberal re-election in this riding. Both progressive and right-of-centre voters are unhappy with the government’s response to the Hamas-Israel conflict...
Making matters more complicated for the Liberals are affordability issues, including #inflation and the cost of #housing, that are negatively affecting the party’s popularity across the country.
'It’s a competitive riding now,' said one Liberal MP. 'This should have been a safe Liberal riding. Not anymore.'
As of last week, the prime minister had not called a byelection for the Toronto-area riding..."
#TorontoStPauls #federalbyelection #bodypolitic #societalvalues #TOpoli #onpoli #cdnpoli #globalpoli #globalimpact
Senior Manager of Development at Equal Voice
2moIt's a privilege and honour to work for an organization that supports women in politics. The support and encouragement from my colleagues at Equal Voice inspired me to put my name forward and has helped to prepare me for what's to come!