Is Donald Trump Repeating Hillary Clinton's Mistakes?

Unity versus Alienation, that is the question

Source: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, via Wikimedia Commons

In 2016, when Hillary Clinton referred to Donald Trump's supporters as "deplorables", her favorability ratings declined almost immediately. With that one offhand comment, she managed to offend and alienate undecided voters while simultaneously offending some of her base by being unnecessarily mean. And everyone now knows how the 2016 election turned out.

So it's extremely puzzling why Trump, still a contender in the 2024 race, would now take a page out of Clinton's playbook and hurl personal insults at the American public from whom he so desperately needs votes. Trump does have a long history of self-sabotage, and his recent campaign behavior may be just the latest example.

Though the denunciation of Democrats as "childless cat ladies" originated with Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance, the ex-president did not denounce it when campaign advisors told him the offhand comment was offensive—not just to women who own cats and don't have children but to everyone who thinks it's mean to make fun of people's life choices or circumstances. It is noteworthy that Gen Z, which comprises 70 million young Americans (or potential baby-makers, as Vance would have it) includes many who are intentionally foregoing parenthood (and might also own cats). Vance unnecessarily offended a large portion of the electorate while also revealing how out of touch he is with the current trends in America.

The Harris-Walz campaign, meanwhile, is exuding positive energy, inclusiveness, optimism, and hope. Its messages aim to include rather than exclude, to unite rather than divide, and to invite rather than alienate. Its buzz words include "freedom", "future" and "joy." It doesn't take a psychologist to recognize that people feel good when they hear compliments and bad when they hear insults.

Some 20 million Baby Boomers have died since Trump's 2016 campaign. The youngest voters in the country, Generation Z, are notably more progressive, liberal, and accepting of individual differences (as psychologist Jean Twenge has pointed out in Generations). Mean insults about identity and life choices from older, white men are unlikely to resonate with this segment of the electorate.

Historian Allan Lichtman, whose Keys to the While House checklist on the political landscape has correctly predicted the outcome of most presidential elections since 1984, predicts Kamala Harris will win in 2024. He evaluates the strength of incumbency versus that of the challenger based on 13 elements, from the outcome of foreign military operations to the short-term economy to the dynamism of the major figures. If I could add one key to Lichtman's calculus, #14 would be, Does the presidential candidate make the American people feel good or bad?

As an academic, I don't know much about how presidential campaigns are planned and executed. But as a human being, I know that an important component of anyone who wants to be a leader is how they make you feel.