Jordan Montgomery shut down the White Sox last time out, but against tougher competition he has struggled. The host Phillies own a .764 OPS against left-handed pitching (sixth-best in MLB). Back Philadelphia to improve to 30-11 at home.

Both starting pitchers (Jordan Montgomery & Taijuan Walker) have not performed well this season. The Philadelphia Phillies remember the D-backs winning games six and seven in the NL Pennant in Philadelphia last season. The Phillies rank second in NL OPS vs. left-handed starters. They are 7-0 after a day off and 18-6 after a loss this season. Arizona is just 14-22 after a win. I have to play the home team in this spot!

I have the Phillies winning 61 percent of simulations which implies this line should be -156 with Taijuan Walker vs. Jordan Montgomery. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in MLB in wOBA against left-handed pitching, and should only improve with Trea Turner back in the lineup. Montgomery is sitting at the lowest strikeout rate of his career, and has been crushed on both his sinker and changeup. I like the Phillies at -134 on FanDuel.

This one Friday I'm basically throwing out the starting pitchers -- Jordan Montgomery and Taijuan Walker as both have been largely not very good -- but backing the Phils as this feels like maybe the biggest "payback" game of the 2024 regular season after Philadelphia lost Games 6 & 7 of the 2023 NLCS at home to Arizona. The Snakes also had to play today and used their high-leverage relievers while the Phils were off. I am doing listed pitcher on Arizona on the off chance Zac Gallen gets activated and takes Montgomery's place but it doesn't appear as if that will happen as of now.