"Polls come and polls go" is the soundbite most often employed by politicians facing bad numbers, but this latest Guardian-ICM poll has caused absolute delight among the Labour hierarchy. But if you look at the underlying fundamentals it is actually pretty clear why Labour is mounting such a sustained and consistent recovery – though of course, there's a long way to go.
First, Brown has convinced people that he knows what he is doing when it comes to heading off the economic crisis. People don't want, to coin the ubiquitous phrase, a "do-nothing" government. They want leaders who take action. They don't believe politicians can wave magic wands but they expect them to do what they can. Despite the cat calls from a renegade German politician, so gleefully seized upon by the Tories, the UK is in step with the rest of the world: people see that, and soon Obama will effectively endorse Brown's strategy too.
Second, Cameron is proving himself a poor strategist. Take today. Riled by Brown's taunt that he still leads a "nasty party", and to get a quick headline on welfare, Cameron goes against the conclusions of Iain Duncan Smith's social justice report and undermines the Tories' commitment to reforms to tackle so-called broken Britain. Take yesterday. He attacked City bonuses, and called for bankers who broke the rules to be hounded and prosecuted. Fair enough, you might say. But he wouldn't have, not in September anyway, when he promised: "What you won't hear from me this week is the sort of easy cheap lines beating up on the market system, bashing financiers. It might get you some easy headlines, but it is not going to pay a single mortgage, it's not going to save a single job."
Voters don't follow the details of this inconsistent posturing but they pick up on it nonetheless. Labour, at its best, does policy; the Tories never seem to rise above politics, and people see that, distrust it and increasingly reject them for it. Focus groups show that people view Cameron as a likeable guy but that he doesn't seem like the "real deal". He has a real authenticity problem. Unlike Brown, where voters are clear that what you see is what you get: solid, serious, and, as the classic ad put it, "Not Flash, just Gordon". Voters suspect that Cameron and Osborne are rather flash but are trying to hide it – along with their real politics. Put bluntly, people – especially at times like these – don't want a lightweight chancer and that is what Cameron appears to be.
But it goes deeper than personalities. What we are really seeing is a shift towards Labour values. A smart, active state, looking out for people and doing what it can to protect them is anathema to the small government, laissez faire, Hayek-quoting Tories. The choice is increasingly clear: a government that is on your side, or a government that, because of its own ideological blinkers and inexperience, will in effect leave you on your own.
The Tories are doing what they can to promote the idea that there might be an early election. On the contrary, I have no doubt that Gordon Brown believes that the more people are exposed to Cameron the less likely they will be to trust him. Whatever the economic challenges ahead, if both men carry on as they are I suspect we will get used to more polls moving in the same direction as this one.
