Latest Track Shifts Hermine Closer to Long Island, Tropical Storm Conditions Still Expected in Suffolk County

Just when it seemed Hermine was heading far out to sea and would spare Long Island of any major impacts, the storm has taken a larger turn to the west than expected, according to an 11 a.m. Monday update from the National Hurricane Center.

The odds of tropical storm-force winds (39-73 mph) have increased across the island. There's now a 70-80 percent chance of such winds on the South Fork with decreasing probabilities heading west across the island.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Suffolk County. Nassau's warning was canceled Sunday night.

As of 11 a.m., Hermine, classified as a post-tropical cyclone, had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and was about 230 miles southeast of Montauk.

Here are the latest expected impacts from the storm on the island:

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area later Monday. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be likely in Suffolk County and 25-35 mph in Nassau County.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. The water could reach 1-2 feet above ground from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide.

SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the East Coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion.

A voluntary evacuation of Fire Island was lifted Monday morning.

"Suffolk County has dodged the worst predicted impacts of the storm," the office of County Executive Steve Bellone said in a statement Monday morning.

Here's a live video showing the ocean off Long Beach courtesy of TheSurfersView.com (for more free beach cams, including ones from East Hampton and Fire Island, click here).

It's happened! Hermine making that NW move now that we've been talking about...this is the updated 11AM track! pic.twitter.com/KNttbwxcLS
— Matt Hammer (@MattHammer12) September" class="redactor-linkify-object">https://twitter.com/MattHammer... 5, 2016