If you love MLB betting but don't want to wait a full game, boy, do I have a wager for you: First Five Innings Betting, often referred to as F5 betting.
F5 betting is the best way to capitalize on ace starting pitching or get your money in before a crummy bullpen blows a lead.
Below is all the First Five betting data from the 2024 season, including ML records and best/worst F5 starting pitchers.
F5 Moneyline Records
| Team | Overall | Home | Away | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | 62-46-16 (+$773.92) | 33-22-6 (+$407.29) | 29-24-10 (+$366.63) | 4-3-3 (+$50.13) |
| Diamondbacks | 60-46-20 (+$725.76) | 29-21-13 (-$18.22) | 31-25-7 (+$743.98) | 6-4 (+$111.01) |
| Orioles | 67-46-13 (+$516.62) | 35-24-6 (+$54.69) | 32-22-7 (+$461.93) | 6-3-1 (+$155.49) |
| Royals | 59-46-20 (+$332.8) | 33-20-11 (+$518.01) | 26-26-9 (-$185.21) | 7-3 (+$276.71) |
| Phillies | 70-42-12 (+$316.85) | 42-17-6 (+$621.36) | 28-25-6 (-$304.51) | 3-6-1 (-$462.49) |
| Brewers | 57-50-17 (+$260.85) | 29-23-10 (-$11.42) | 28-27-7 (+$272.27) | 5-3-2 (+$105.57) |
| Reds | 55-51-19 (+$159.85) | 28-29-8 (-$556.06) | 27-22-11 (+$715.91) | 4-4-2 (-$25.46) |
| White Sox | 47-62-17 (+$91.07) | 26-28-8 (+$724.44) | 21-34-9 (-$633.37) | 4-4-2 (+$280.0) |
| Guardians | 57-50-17 (+$86.12) | 28-24-6 (-$228.53) | 29-26-11 (+$314.65) | 3-5-2 (-$225.02) |
| Yankees | 62-47-16 (-$146.34) | 30-19-10 (-$35.31) | 32-28-6 (-$111.03) | 4-4-2 (-$177.85) |
| Cubs | 53-51-21 (-$213.76) | 28-24-10 (-$105.68) | 25-27-11 (-$108.08) | 5-3-2 (+$130.02) |
| Mets | 56-50-19 (-$289.71) | 30-26-10 (-$304.96) | 26-24-9 (+$15.25) | 5-4-1 (-$147.64) |
| Pirates | 49-52-23 (-$338.71) | 25-24-12 (-$252.28) | 24-28-11 (-$86.43) | 2-7-1 (-$518.33) |
| Nationals | 47-63-15 (-$383.18) | 22-31-7 (-$607.92) | 25-32-8 (+$224.74) | 2-6-2 (-$350.0) |
| Dodgers | 65-48-13 (-$484.07) | 36-19-6 (+$221.83) | 29-29-7 (-$705.9) | 5-3-2 (+$128.72) |
| Padres | 57-52-17 (-$485.45) | 28-27-8 (-$637.0) | 29-25-9 (+$151.55) | 4-4-2 (-$160.77) |
| Tigers | 51-53-21 (-$546.99) | 24-29-10 (-$879.83) | 27-24-11 (+$332.84) | 5-4-1 (+$316.92) |
| Astros | 57-50-17 (-$585.43) | 31-25-6 (-$247.72) | 26-25-11 (-$337.71) | 5-2-3 (+$128.11) |
| Twins | 57-52-16 (-$856.17) | 32-20-8 (+$201.55) | 25-32-8 (-$1057.72) | 4-4-2 (-$60.15) |
| Mariners | 58-52-16 (-$863.33) | 30-25-8 (-$372.6) | 28-27-8 (-$490.73) | 6-3-1 (+$98.91) |
| Rockies | 43-66-16 (-$902.96) | 24-32-6 (-$355.16) | 19-34-10 (-$547.8) | 4-5-1 (+$80.0) |
| Braves | 58-48-18 (-$935.05) | 26-23-9 (-$870.22) | 32-25-9 (-$64.83) | 6-2-2 (+$201.71) |
| Blue Jays | 53-55-17 (-$1100.71) | 27-24-10 (-$312.96) | 26-31-7 (-$787.75) | 4-3-3 (+$112.87) |
| Rangers | 50-56-20 (-$1430.52) | 29-23-11 (-$257.3) | 21-33-9 (-$1173.22) | 2-6-2 (-$464.36) |
| Giants | 52-57-18 (-$1482.11) | 32-23-9 (+$145.7) | 20-34-9 (-$1627.81) | 3-5-2 (-$337.78) |
| Athletics | 47-70-8 (-$1526.93) | 30-30-2 (-$9.13) | 17-40-6 (-$1517.8) | 4-3-3 (+$190.24) |
| Cardinals | 46-59-19 (-$1773.53) | 25-27-9 (-$701.8) | 21-32-10 (-$1071.73) | 5-5 (-$47.19) |
| Marlins | 41-71-13 (-$1850.02) | 22-37-5 (-$1290.93) | 19-34-8 (-$559.09) | 4-4-2 (+$160.24) |
| Angels | 42-69-14 (-$2052.3) | 19-36-12 (-$1563.96) | 23-33-2 (-$488.34) | 3-6-1 (-$304.71) |
| Rays | 44-62-18 (-$2488.62) | 24-33-11 (-$1500.15) | 20-29-7 (-$988.47) | 2-8 (-$622.13) |
There aren't many surprises, as our top F5 clubs feature competitive stalwarts such as the Orioles, Phillies, Guardians, and Red Sox. The Pirates are a surprise appearance on our list, though, which makes sense because the club is extremely loaded with quality pitchers (Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, David Bednar) but lacks a shred of offensive consistency. As a result, we've got a quality staff that keeps the club in games, while the offense scrapes for runs. The Pirates lose more often than they win, but they tend to keep games close, which makes them a sneaky profitable F5 club.
F5 OVER/UNDER Records
| Team | Overall | Home | Away | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | 66-48-10 (57.9%) | 33-22-6 (60.0%) | 33-26-4 (55.9%) | 3-7 (30.0%) |
| Guardians | 66-49-9 (57.4%) | 36-18-4 (66.7%) | 30-31-5 (49.2%) | 4-6 (40.0%) |
| Twins | 65-49-11 (57.0%) | 33-21-6 (61.1%) | 32-28-5 (53.3%) | 4-4-2 (50.0%) |
| Diamondbacks | 69-53-4 (56.6%) | 36-26-1 (58.1%) | 33-27-3 (55.0%) | 7-3 (70.0%) |
| Angels | 63-50-12 (55.8%) | 33-29-5 (53.2%) | 30-21-7 (58.8%) | 4-3-3 (57.1%) |
| Brewers | 68-54-2 (55.7%) | 35-26-1 (57.4%) | 33-28-1 (54.1%) | 6-4 (60.0%) |
| Phillies | 65-52-7 (55.6%) | 33-30-2 (52.4%) | 32-22-5 (59.3%) | 4-6 (40.0%) |
| Giants | 63-51-13 (55.3%) | 31-23-10 (57.4%) | 32-28-3 (53.3%) | 4-5-1 (44.4%) |
| Yankees | 64-52-9 (55.2%) | 32-24-3 (57.1%) | 32-28-6 (53.3%) | 3-7 (30.0%) |
| Marlins | 67-55-3 (54.9%) | 38-23-3 (62.3%) | 29-32 (47.5%) | 6-4 (60.0%) |
| Cardinals | 64-54-6 (54.2%) | 34-24-3 (58.6%) | 30-30-3 (50.0%) | 7-3 (70.0%) |
| Dodgers | 64-57-5 (52.9%) | 30-29-2 (50.8%) | 34-28-3 (54.8%) | 6-3-1 (66.7%) |
| Pirates | 60-55-9 (52.2%) | 28-27-6 (50.9%) | 32-28-3 (53.3%) | 7-2-1 (77.8%) |
| Orioles | 61-56-9 (52.1%) | 34-27-4 (55.7%) | 27-29-5 (48.2%) | 3-7 (30.0%) |
| Reds | 59-55-11 (51.8%) | 26-31-8 (45.6%) | 33-24-3 (57.9%) | 5-5 (50.0%) |
| Cubs | 58-58-9 (50.0%) | 27-32-3 (45.8%) | 31-26-6 (54.4%) | 6-4 (60.0%) |
| Nationals | 58-60-7 (49.2%) | 27-28-5 (49.1%) | 31-32-2 (49.2%) | 3-6-1 (33.3%) |
| Braves | 56-59-9 (48.7%) | 31-23-4 (57.4%) | 25-36-5 (41.0%) | 5-4-1 (55.6%) |
| Athletics | 55-58-12 (48.7%) | 28-31-3 (47.5%) | 27-27-9 (50.0%) | 3-7 (30.0%) |
| Mets | 56-60-9 (48.3%) | 28-35-3 (44.4%) | 28-25-6 (52.8%) | 3-6-1 (33.3%) |
| Blue Jays | 55-59-11 (48.2%) | 26-30-5 (46.4%) | 29-29-6 (50.0%) | 4-5-1 (44.4%) |
| Padres | 56-61-9 (47.9%) | 31-24-8 (56.4%) | 25-37-1 (40.3%) | 5-5 (50.0%) |
| White Sox | 57-64-5 (47.1%) | 23-36-3 (39.0%) | 34-28-2 (54.8%) | 5-5 (50.0%) |
| Rockies | 55-62-8 (47.0%) | 27-34-1 (44.3%) | 28-28-7 (50.0%) | 6-4 (60.0%) |
| Tigers | 55-63-7 (46.6%) | 28-32-3 (46.7%) | 27-31-4 (46.6%) | 2-7-1 (22.2%) |
| Royals | 55-64-6 (46.2%) | 28-33-3 (45.9%) | 27-31-3 (46.6%) | 5-5 (50.0%) |
| Mariners | 54-64-8 (45.8%) | 24-36-3 (40.0%) | 30-28-5 (51.7%) | 4-5-1 (44.4%) |
| Rangers | 55-66-5 (45.5%) | 23-37-3 (38.3%) | 32-29-2 (52.5%) | 3-5-2 (37.5%) |
| Rays | 51-65-8 (44.0%) | 26-37-5 (41.3%) | 25-28-3 (47.2%) | 4-6 (40.0%) |
| Astros | 50-65-9 (43.5%) | 26-31-5 (45.6%) | 24-34-4 (41.4%) | 4-6 (40.0%) |
Most Profitable F5 Pitchers
| Pitcher | Profit | Five Inning Record |
|---|---|---|
| Erick Fedde | +$846.66 | 13-8-3 (61.9%) |
| Logan Allen | +$844.25 | 12-4-3 (75.0%) |
| Trevor Williams | +$790.0 | 7-2-2 (77.8%) |
| Michael Lorenzen | +$687.78 | 11-5-5 (68.8%) |
| Luis Gil | +$613.23 | 15-5-3 (75.0%) |
| Brayan Bello | +$564.02 | 14-7-2 (66.7%) |
| Bryan Woo | +$531.57 | 10-2-3 (83.3%) |
| Valente Bellozo | +$505.0 | 4-1-1 (80.0%) |
| Ben Lively | +$475.63 | 13-7-2 (65.0%) |
| Sean Manaea | +$468.06 | 13-7-4 (65.0%) |
Just as we suspected (not), Fedde is the most profitable F5 pitcher in baseball. He doesn't own the finest F5 record, but the White Sox were often massive underdogs, so that helped his profit numbers. Fedde will likely sink down our list after his deadline trade to the Cardinals, as St. Louis won't see as many contests as steep underdogs.
Remember, F5 success is not an endorsement on ML betting. Poor bullpens often sully F5 success, so bet carefully.
Least Profitable F5 Pitchers
| Pitcher | Profit | Five Inning Record |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | -$1066.37 | 6-18-1 (25.0%) |
| Carlos Carrasco | -$1031.89 | 5-15-1 (25.0%) |
| Ross Stripling | -$1022.13 | 2-12 (14.3%) |
| Andrew Heaney | -$963.58 | 6-15-3 (28.6%) |
| Patrick Corbin | -$930.0 | 6-18-1 (25.0%) |
| Spencer Arrighetti | -$922.47 | 5-13-4 (27.8%) |
| Taj Bradley | -$876.97 | 4-12-2 (25.0%) |
| Miles Mikolas | -$766.67 | 7-15-3 (31.8%) |
| Freddy Peralta | -$741.06 | 10-14-1 (41.7%) |
| Patrick Sandoval | -$708.18 | 4-11-1 (26.7%) |
Carlos Carrasco and Ross Stripling are automatic fades at this point. Carrasco's 5.53 ERA and -1.1 bWAR are self-explanatory, while Stripling's lack of success is a bit more puzzling. The A's aren't a great club, but they aren't atrocious either. Stripling simply hasn't had good stuff lately, posting a 5.54 ERA over the last two seasons. He stinks, and his 2-12 F5 record reinforces that notion.
How First Five Innings Betting Works
It’s quite simple — you’re basically just making a bet on what the result will be at the end of five innings as opposed to the full-game outcome. Just like regular full-game betting, there’s a moneyline and total option, along with a runline which is 0.5 runs instead of the regular full-game 1.5 runs. The value of an F5 moneyline bet generally isn’t as good as the full-game odds because there’s less risk involved but this can vary from game to game.
Why Bet First Five Innings Instead Of Full Game?
There are many different strategies when employing either betting option, but the decision often comes down to the starting pitching matchup and/or quality of the bullpens. If a team has a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup, a bettor might opt to bet the first five. If a team has a quality starter on the mound, but the bullpen can’t be trusted, this is another opportunity to consider a first five innings bet.
How These Tables Work
The data in these tables is based solely on results from the first five innings and profits are based on $100 bets. The moneyline profits are in the brackets beside each record. Keep in mind every single game needs to be analyzed differently. Just because a team has been a strong moneyline or OVER bet throughout the course of the season doesn’t necessarily mean it’s worthy of a bet each day. Many factors should be considered when placing a bet and this data can be a great weapon to have in your betting tool belt.
