My MLS expert picks aren't going so well this season. I'm currently sitting with a 9-19 record and -6.25 units. I've got three picks for Matchday 26 that I hope will start turning that poor record around.
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MLS Expert Picks: Matchday 26
For matchday 26 I'm looking at league leaders FC Cincinnati's tilt with Charlotte, then its a look at the free-falling derby between TFC and Philadelphia, before finally making a pick on the rematch of last year's final in LAFC vs Columbus Crew.
FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte
FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC Kick Off - Saturday, July 12, 7:30 PM
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati | -140 | O3 (+106) | -0.5 (-150) |
| Charlotte FC | +355 | U3 (-123) | +0.5 (+110) |
| Draw | +298 |
Pick: FC Cincinnati ML (-140)
We've got two teams in opposing forms here. Cinci has won three straight including a 6-1 clobbering over MLS Cup favorites Inter Miami. Charlotte has dropped their last two with only one goal in those last two losses.
Cincinnati is at home here. They've made TQL stadium a fortress over the last two seasons. The Gary's are 19-4-5 at home since the 2023 season. Meanwhile, Charlotte has been poor on the road with a 3-1-6 record this season and a -1.3 xGD.
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union Kick Off - Saturday, July 12, 7:30 PM
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC | +112 | O2.5 (-160) | -0.5 (+105) |
| Philadelphia Union | +228 | U2.5 (+134) | +0.5 (-145) |
| Draw | +265 |
Pick: O2.5 (-160)
There are goals in this game. Philly has seen the total go OVER 2.5 goals five times in their last seven games (71%). For TFC an O2.5 goals bet has hit in seven straight games and 10 of their last 12 games (83%).
Looking at the xG, there are an average of 2.6 scoring opportunities per TFC game while that number is 3.24 for Phiadelphia games. Again, there are goals here so I'm taking the OVER in this contest.
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LAFC vs Columbus Crew
LAFC vs Columbus Crew Kick-Off - Saturday, July 12, 10:30 PM
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAFC | -124 | O3 (-119) | -0.5 (-135) |
| Columbus Crew | +294 | U3 (+102) | +0.5 (-105) |
| Draw | +306 |
Pick: LAFC (-124)
I know, Columbus has been undefeated in four straight. But let's be honest about those wins. They've come against Kansas, New England, Nashville, and Toronto. Four teams with a combined 7-0-13 record over their last five games. They're winning against bad teams. The Crew's last two losses were against the top two sides in the East; FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami.
LAFC is undefeated in 10 straight with wins over LA Galaxy and Colorado. Two of the top four sides in the West. Don't forget that LA is 9-2-0 at home with a ridiculous +21 goal differential and +18.7 xG differential.
LA keeps that undefeated streak alive and gets revenge after losing last year's Final to Columbus.
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